The Winning Angle Play For Auburn and Va.Tech

[GoSooners]

This Sugar Bowl contests pits the best of the ACC against the best of the SEC. Va.Tech comes in at 10-2 and Auburn at 12-0. Tech comes in with the #34 ranked offense and #7 defense. Auburn is #14 on offense and #13 on defense. This will be the Hokies 12th consecutive bowl under Beamer and they are 4-7 ATS. Auburn has been to 4 consecutive bowls under Tuberville and are 3-1 ATS. Tech has faced 6 bowl teams this year going 5-1 ATS with their lone loss coming to #1 USC. Auburn, despite their easy non conference schedule has faced 5 bowl caliber teams this season outscoring them by an average of 25-13.
Intangibles: The first stat that stuck out for me on this game was the stellar play of Auburn QB Campbell. He is 70% in pass completions with an excellent TD/INT ratio of 19-6. Which is a key stat for a QB playing in a big game that could be won by turnovers. The Sugar Bowl is played inside a dome on the artificial turf. VT has played on natural grass in every game this year. Auburn just played in a dome on artificial turf in their SEC championship game. Although VT sold their allotment of tickets, Auburn should have a distinct advantage fan wise with this game being played in SEC country. Va.Tech won the ACC title in a conference that is in transisition this year. Not taking anything away from their victory. But the ACC title will be much harder to win next year when they go to 12 teams and a championship game. Auburn has already been through that war with a young but talented Tennessee team who they had to beat twice this season.
The one issue I have with Va.Tech is the status of their top RB Imoh, who has had hamstring problems late in the season. I respect the talents of their QB Randall, but I don't believe his improvistional abilities with the football will be enough alone to handle this speedy Auburn defense. In my opinion this Tech team just simply don't have enough playmakers on offense. Auburn on the other hand has got a well balanced team with the running of Cadillac Williams and Bentley Brown and passing of Campbell. Auburn matches Va.Tech at literally every position and surpasses them in many. They even have a big advantage on special teams, which is unusual for a Hokie team.
Auburn is coming in to this game obviously disappointed at not being in the title game. But my feeling here is that this will not have an affect on their play. Like Utah proved last night with their easy win, Auburn has an undefeated season to play for and a coach that isn't leaving. This is a team that is also obviously close to their coach. And with the troubles he's gone through in the last year of almost getting ousted in a coup, I believe this team will play extra hard for him. And you never know, in the back of their minds these players may be thinking if they win this game big and the Orange Bowl game is close (a good possibility) they may be thinking the voters show some sympathy. Not likely with the AP out of the picture. But a big win will make Auburn look good and the BCS look bad. I got this game locked in last night at Auburn -5.5. I would take them up to 7. Take AUBURN minus the points

Good luck to all!

 

[Stepintoliquid]

Good morning there GoSooners! Nice write up. I'm with you on Auburn. I think VT might hang with Auburn early in the game. But Auburn will pull away as the game goes on. I agree that Auburn is out to make a statement much like Utah did last night with Pitt. But Pitt isn't VT. I'm a little worried about how well VT has been playing lately but Auburn less than a td is what I'm taking. Hopefully Auburn plays better than the rest of the SEC aside from the Vols this bowl season.

Good luck!

 

[MrGoodDr]

Go Sooners

Very nice write up. Auburn # down to 4.5 in super sharp store this morning. Myself i like the plus here. OBTW the Sooner # is down to pick at this time in a few shops, told ya they made Wrong team the favorite here and the Sooners roll.
Wonder where ALL those folks are that said the Trojans would be 6, Sooners will be favorite before kick.

 

[Stepintoliquid]

Mr Good, I think USC is favored simply because they are the media darlings. I'm on OU as well. Stoops has been in more big games than Carrol and I think it will show here. Stoops has an amazing record vs Top 10 teams at OU. I believe his only loss was to LSU which was basically a home gome for the Tigers in N. Orleans. I also think White and Peterson will have a chip on their shoulders after the Heisman Award.

 

[GoSooners]

Good morning there GoSooners! Nice write up. I'm with you on Auburn. I think VT might hang with Auburn early in the game. But Auburn will pull away as the game goes on. I agree that Auburn is out to make a statement much like Utah did last night with Pitt. But Pitt isn't VT. I'm a little worried about how well VT has been playing lately but Auburn less than a td is what I'm taking. Hopefully Auburn plays better than the rest of the SEC aside from the Vols this bowl season.

Good luck!

Happy New year Liquid. I agree, I believe Va.Tech is going to hang around for a good part of the game because of their defense. Auburn has enough horses to eventually spring the big play on those guys. Not sure Va.Tech does. I would prefer this game at -6 or less. But I would take it at -7. As long as it's one score or less. GL

 

[Berlino]

Mr Good, I think USC is favored simply because they are the media darlings.

USC is 7-5 ATS this season whereas Oklahoma is only 4-8.

The Trojans average performance versus the line this season has been about four points better per game than Oklahoma's.

Doesn't this indicate that Oklahoma is more overrated than the USC "media darlings?"

... Stoops has an amazing record vs Top 10 teams at OU. I believe his only loss was to LSU ...

I believe you're correct about Stoops having a good record versus Top 10 teams (mostly Texas), but he has lost to at least one top 10 team other than LSU.

2002 @ Nebraska 20-10 in a battle of unbeatens. Jason White started but was injured in the 2nd quarter. White was 5-13-1 and Oklahoma didn't score while he was playing.

This gets me to my number one problem with Oklahoma: White hasn't done much against top defenses.

2002: 3 quarters of work versus Texas. No TD passes. Offense only scores 7 points despite the defense often giving them good field position. White does avoid interceptions and contributes key runs. Then there was the Nebraska game.

2003: Kansas State and LSU. No TD passes and 4 picks.

2004: Texas. No TD's and 2 interceptions. Compare to the Michigan freshman QB's Rose Bowl stats.

It's nice to throw 5 TD's versus the likes of Baylor, but how will he do against USC?

 

[HawaiianWarrior+]

Nice write up like AUBURN alot..............Also on USC.......Have to go with Da Sooners , Stoops will have them ready for this BIG game it will be DEJAVU all over ..........remember oklahoma beating florida state in the championship game.............

 

[Roxygurl]

i keep seeing the 3 games usc nearly lost against oregon state,stanford and ucla.thier defense is very vulnerable.im sure bob stoops has seen that film on those games and got some 411 from his bro at arizona.oklahoma is a team on a mission after last years failures and they have 1 goal left.im a west coast girl but i am a realist. the sooners are solid. just curious,does this game go over or under the total?~RG

 

[GoSooners]

Roxy, I'm going to have a writeup tomorrow night about the USC-OU game on the over/under. I feel like it will be one of my strongest plays of the year with the total. Stay tuned.

 

[TheOdyssey]

Great write up. I am on this one with ya. Good luck.

 

[Stepintoliquid]

Roxy, excellent points with USC. They have struggled in several games this year just as has O.U. Berlino, I hope you take note of this. I noticed you were quick to point out O.U.'s off games. U.S.C. has had several this year as well. I live in Southern California and I have really no interest in either school. It should be a great game. I personally will take my chances with Bob Stoops in big games. He's proven himself numerous times more than not. Remember his first national championship? O.U. was a HUGE dog at +14. OU won 13-2. If there's 2 coaches in this country I would take given a month to prepare for a big game it would be Stoops and Tressel. Carrol is a good coach, yet I think Norm Chow has A LOT to do with the success of USC. Just like Jerry Sandusky did at PSU with Joe Paterno prior to Sandusky's retirement.

Good luck with your picks!
:howdy:

 

[johnskelington]

Nice write up. Sure beats "My cousin is laying a fat 10 dimes on the Tigers, say's his guy is in the know and can't miss"
I like the Tigers as well for many of the reasons you mentioned but the biggest reason I like em is because the public's all over tech. Never bet with the public.

GL today!

 

[jwunderdog]

"Nice write up. Sure beats "My cousin is laying a fat 10 dimes on the Tigers, say's his guy is in the know and can't miss"
I like the Tigers as well for many of the reasons you mentioned but the biggest reason I like em is because the public's all over tech. Never bet with the public.

GL today!"

Gamblers are on Auburn at the 4 books I have checked at anywhere from a 3-1 margin up to 7-1, so I wouldn't say the public is on VA Tech.
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[LEYKIS101]

Yeah, I see the same thing wunderdog. At Sportsinsights 78% are on Auburn, but the line is moving down, indicating "smart money".

 

[3peet]

Wagerline #'s on Auburn climbed from 69% to 70.38% today on Auburn.

Remember we saw the same thing when the Cal line dropped from 11.5 all the way to 10.5 and 9.5's in some places prior to kickoff!

 

[GoSooners]

I see the line moving down. That's a little bothersome to me. But we still have a while to game time. I think the people who are on Va. Tech are seeing the obvious. They have an 8 game winning streak and a good defense. Most of the teams they have played in the ACC have had some pretty anemic offenses except for Miami and Virginia. But neither of those teams are in the top 10 in offense. The highest rated team in the ACC is Virginia with the #16 offense. So except for USC in the first game, this Auburn offense will be the highest rated #14 that the Hokies have seen all year. It's also facing the #13 defense with Auburn. They've played 2 teams this year who have higher rated defenses. USC at #2 and N.C.St at #10. Two teams the Hokies lost to this season. So by a slim margin Auburn would be The third best D the Hokies have faced this year.
I'd be a fool to say these 2 teams are far apart. They're not! But i feel like the individual matchups go to Auburn in this game. They simply have more playmakers in key positions. I feel like the only way Tech beats us is by causing turnovers on defense. Not saying it can't happen. But Auburn has been pretty stingy with the ball all year. And they a QB that don't make critical mistakes. So I've got to go with the odds here.
I feel like another good play will be the under. These 2 defenses are too good to allow each other to march up and down the field. I feel like the scoring tonight will be on the big play. I'm thinking something like a 23-13 type of game.

 

[Berlino]

...Berlino, I hope you take note of this. I noticed you were quick to point out O.U.'s off games. U.S.C. has had several this year as well...

Step into Liquid, perhaps I didn't express myself well.

I was not pointing out Oklahoma's bad games this year. I wish to draw attention to Jason White's mediocre games against top defenses over his career at Oklahoma so I gave stats from 5 games over 3 seasons.

In some cases Oklahoma was impressive despite White not doing much. For example against the best two Texas defenses he has faced he has two picks and ZERO TD passes in about 7 quarters of work. Yet Oklahoma won 14-3 and 12-0. I am a strong believer in defense being more important than offense so a 14-3 win is just as good a 52-28 one.

As for USC's off games you don't see Leinart having no TD passes and 2 picks `a la White in them.

Therefore I think Leinart's chances of imploding are much less than White's.

 

[johnskelington]

"Nice write up. Sure beats "My cousin is laying a fat 10 dimes on the Tigers, say's his guy is in the know and can't miss"
I like the Tigers as well for many of the reasons you mentioned but the biggest reason I like em is because the public's all over tech. Never bet with the public.

GL today!"

Gamblers are on Auburn at the 4 books I have checked at anywhere from a 3-1 margin up to 7-1, so I wouldn't say the public is on VA Tech.
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It opened at 7 when I wrote this it was at 5.5............I guess i shoulda just figured in the magic point & a half drop for no reason?
You can toss out %'s all day, unless I really don't grasp how the point spread concept works, I mean at least I think a # moving in a teams favor means more money's coming in against them.

 

[jwunderdog]

John,

I wasn't trying to insult you if you took it that way. I was just trying to give you info., yes it looks like early $ came in on tech, but there is a big difference between Money VS Public.

 

[johnskelington]

Well I apologize..........honestly I love this forum for the most part but there's so much sniping going on I tend to be quick to react. I hear what you're saying, I watch watch wagerline & other sites like that myself. This line's all over the place. When it opened at 7 & dropped to 5 1/2 my eyes lit up. As a rule Public=Death


Good luck to you!