Are ripe for a fading.
Don't get me wrong, the Capitals are a decent team and probably a legitimate contender in the East (although they should be thankful that the East blows). But despite their recent run (7 wins in a row and 14-1-1 in their last 16 games) there are some reasons for concern, and as a bettor, the biggest thing to note is that their rep is sky-high right now, and the underlying numbers suggest there will be a decent amount of value in fading them in the near future.
You know how coaches/commentators often talk about how teams pick up bad habits when getting wins, and usually win a handful of games through sheer good luck or confidence that they deserved to lose? And then once they lose a couple they can point to that and suggest that the signs were there? Some of that is idiot pundits being revisionists, but in many cases the data backs up that assertion. The reverse is true too - you often get teams mired in losing streaks that are actually playing good hockey, but not getting the bounces. Then they inexplicably (to the general audience) go on a run of wins/points.
So let's take the Capitals' last 16 games of so-called dominant play and see how it compares to their season before then:
On November 20, the Caps were 12-5-1, which is obviously great, and the Caps were full value for their wins and points:
They were among the top teams in the league in Corsi For % and Scoring Chances For %, despite having a basically average PDO. These numbers are (as all numbers here will be) at even-strength and score-adjusted.
Since then, their record is a sparkling 14-1-1, and they sit first overall in the NHL in terms of Points/GP %
But the underlying numbers are a little scary:
The numbers aren't quite Rangers first 15 games scary (see my other post haha), but they're still pretty bad. Their PDO is off the charts of late, mostly thanks to Holtby playing out of his mind. Second place in that time frame has a PDO of only 102.0, so it gives you a basis for comparison. This is why they're winning games despite having a bottom-10 CF% and SC% in that time. Can Holtby keep this up? Past history suggests no.
Remember my Rangers post and how King Henrik (along with Raanta) were off the charts for SV%? Guess which team is last in the league for SV% since then? Those damn Rangers.
Holtby's numbers break down like this:
So his season to date has seen him save more than 1% more pucks than his career average, and last season's average, which was 92.66%; the last 14 games he's played has seen a save percentage of more than 2% above his career mark, which is a LOT. I think there's some regression coming for him individually, to say nothing about the team.
In conclusion, despite their recent run of play I do still think the Capitals are a good team. But, and this is a big BUT, there is likely to be good value in fading them until they come back to earth. Their winning has masked some systems issues that are only likely to be fixed when they start losing a few games. The fact that they're winning despite these problems means that they are likely to be overvalued with respect to betting lines. Having said all that, I don't think they're in line for a Rangers-like collapse for a few reasons:
The overall sample size is larger, and the underlying numbers less damning as a whole. We're not seeing quite the same historical extremes here with the Caps that we saw with the Rangers. The Caps have played good stretches of hockey (as with the first quarter of the season) that we've not seen from New York, which suggests this just may be an aberration rather than something irredeemable. The Overall PDO number from the Capitals (as is finally the case with the Rangers as well) is not completely unsustainable. It's high, but teams have gone a whole season with a 102+ PDO before. My point isn't that the Caps are set for a fall off the cliff, but more that their PDO numbers are likely to normalize from where they've been the last while. Also, that we're going to see average W/L numbers from them as a consequence, at best, for the foreseeable future unless they improve their CF and SC numbers to something like they were in the early stages of the season.
As always comments and criticisms welcome.
Don't get me wrong, the Capitals are a decent team and probably a legitimate contender in the East (although they should be thankful that the East blows). But despite their recent run (7 wins in a row and 14-1-1 in their last 16 games) there are some reasons for concern, and as a bettor, the biggest thing to note is that their rep is sky-high right now, and the underlying numbers suggest there will be a decent amount of value in fading them in the near future.
You know how coaches/commentators often talk about how teams pick up bad habits when getting wins, and usually win a handful of games through sheer good luck or confidence that they deserved to lose? And then once they lose a couple they can point to that and suggest that the signs were there? Some of that is idiot pundits being revisionists, but in many cases the data backs up that assertion. The reverse is true too - you often get teams mired in losing streaks that are actually playing good hockey, but not getting the bounces. Then they inexplicably (to the general audience) go on a run of wins/points.
So let's take the Capitals' last 16 games of so-called dominant play and see how it compares to their season before then:
On November 20, the Caps were 12-5-1, which is obviously great, and the Caps were full value for their wins and points:
| Date | Team | PDO | Rank | Osh% | Osv% | CF% | Rank | SC% | Rank | SOS | Record | Difference |
| After Game 18 | WSH | 99.7 | 20 | 7.8 | 91.9 | 54.0 | 3 | 52.4 | 6 | 12-5-1 | +13 |
They were among the top teams in the league in Corsi For % and Scoring Chances For %, despite having a basically average PDO. These numbers are (as all numbers here will be) at even-strength and score-adjusted.
Since then, their record is a sparkling 14-1-1, and they sit first overall in the NHL in terms of Points/GP %
But the underlying numbers are a little scary:
| Date | Team | PDO | Rank | Osh% | Osv% | CF% | Rank | SC% | Rank | SOS | Record | Difference |
| Last 16 games | WSH | 104.8 | 1 | 9.8 | 94.9 | 47.8 | 21 | 48.9 | 21 | 14-1-1 | +23 |
The numbers aren't quite Rangers first 15 games scary (see my other post haha), but they're still pretty bad. Their PDO is off the charts of late, mostly thanks to Holtby playing out of his mind. Second place in that time frame has a PDO of only 102.0, so it gives you a basis for comparison. This is why they're winning games despite having a bottom-10 CF% and SC% in that time. Can Holtby keep this up? Past history suggests no.
Remember my Rangers post and how King Henrik (along with Raanta) were off the charts for SV%? Guess which team is last in the league for SV% since then? Those damn Rangers.
Holtby's numbers break down like this:
| Holtby | GP | SV% |
| After Game 18 | 14 | 92.53 |
| Last 16 Games | 14 | 94.88 |
| Overall | 28 | 93.82 |
| Career | 92.87 |
So his season to date has seen him save more than 1% more pucks than his career average, and last season's average, which was 92.66%; the last 14 games he's played has seen a save percentage of more than 2% above his career mark, which is a LOT. I think there's some regression coming for him individually, to say nothing about the team.
In conclusion, despite their recent run of play I do still think the Capitals are a good team. But, and this is a big BUT, there is likely to be good value in fading them until they come back to earth. Their winning has masked some systems issues that are only likely to be fixed when they start losing a few games. The fact that they're winning despite these problems means that they are likely to be overvalued with respect to betting lines. Having said all that, I don't think they're in line for a Rangers-like collapse for a few reasons:
The overall sample size is larger, and the underlying numbers less damning as a whole. We're not seeing quite the same historical extremes here with the Caps that we saw with the Rangers. The Caps have played good stretches of hockey (as with the first quarter of the season) that we've not seen from New York, which suggests this just may be an aberration rather than something irredeemable. The Overall PDO number from the Capitals (as is finally the case with the Rangers as well) is not completely unsustainable. It's high, but teams have gone a whole season with a 102+ PDO before. My point isn't that the Caps are set for a fall off the cliff, but more that their PDO numbers are likely to normalize from where they've been the last while. Also, that we're going to see average W/L numbers from them as a consequence, at best, for the foreseeable future unless they improve their CF and SC numbers to something like they were in the early stages of the season.
As always comments and criticisms welcome.
