Every year since the inception of the BCS, at least two teams who weren't rated anywhere in the top 25 have ended up in the top 10 of the final BCS poll. This year was no different. The two teams this season were Utah (2nd) and TCU (9th). Once again the preseason prognosticators missed a couple. Which two teams will it be next season?
GS-
two teams who i like where they are going and won't be ranked i believe are NC st and UM...good young up and coming QBs and young defenses with a lot of returners...i think they both have a shot at winning their divisions
another team i think can rebound is Tennessee...their defense was outstanding last yr and with a little help from their offense they can be even better...problem is i see them at best finishing 2nd in sec east, which means they would be at best #3 in sec and not in a bcs bowl, but neither was tcu so there's a chance...obviously a lot has to happen but i don't think they will be ranked and they always have a ton of talent and their defense will keep them in a lot of games
two teams who i like where they are going and won't be ranked i believe are NC st and UM...good young up and coming QBs and young defenses with a lot of returners...i think they both have a shot at winning their divisions
another team i think can rebound is Tennessee...their defense was outstanding last yr and with a little help from their offense they can be even better...problem is i see them at best finishing 2nd in sec east, which means they would be at best #3 in sec and not in a bcs bowl, but neither was tcu so there's a chance...obviously a lot has to happen but i don't think they will be ranked and they always have a ton of talent and their defense will keep them in a lot of games
Two teams that have a shot are Maimi Fl., and Arizona.
Miami started 4 freshmen on defense last year with something like 10 returning starters and just about everyone back on offense including their QB. Tough schedule though.
Arizona loses a very good QB but has 8 starters back on offense and 7 on the defense that held USC to 17 (I think it was). Who knows.
Looking at the preseason poll that Conan provided earliet it might be easier to talk about teams that might not stay in the poll (Georgia or Utah).
Miami started 4 freshmen on defense last year with something like 10 returning starters and just about everyone back on offense including their QB. Tough schedule though.
Arizona loses a very good QB but has 8 starters back on offense and 7 on the defense that held USC to 17 (I think it was). Who knows.
Looking at the preseason poll that Conan provided earliet it might be easier to talk about teams that might not stay in the poll (Georgia or Utah).
Trent...I think you hit the nail on the head with NCST and UM. These were basically the only two teams I could think of that are likely to be rated outside of the top 20 and have a chance to finish inside the top 10. NCST really has a lot going for them next season. I really like Russell Wilson. I wished he hadn't gotten hurt in their bowl game, because he is a game changer. You combine that with the returning starters, and especially Tom O'Brien, who I consider one of the premier coaches in the country, and they have an excellent chance to win the ACC and get in a BCS bowl. Their in-state rivals North Carolina should be good too. They need to replace most of their OL, but have most everybody else returning. But I expect them to be rated in the top 25 next season. NC is more a team for the future with the great recuriting classes that Butch Davis is producing there. As for the Vols, I think they'll make a move up to a much better season next year. But I expect more from them after their coach gets his feet wet and the players get used to yet another system. Their defense should be very good and make them a good underdog play.
also don't sleep on UM...right now my biggest concern with them is randy shannon..!! but at least they got rid of OC nix, who was horrible, and i hear their new hire Whipple is pretty innovative...they lose DC young back to b12 (i'm sure your not happy but a good get for OSU), but they have enough young talent on defense to sustain imo...also, shannon might coordinate the defense now, which he was previous to being head coach, and i believe that when your HC is the DC the players usually respond anyway...if they can upset OU at home week 2 then the ACC is there for the taking and a top 10 bcs finish is very possible...
i look at UM and FSU because of their similarities in talent...but if you watch ponder, and then watch harris, there is no question in my mind if i was choosing up sides i would take harris in a heart beat..!! and with all things being equal, if you have the advantage at QB, then you are the better team imo.
i look at UM and FSU because of their similarities in talent...but if you watch ponder, and then watch harris, there is no question in my mind if i was choosing up sides i would take harris in a heart beat..!! and with all things being equal, if you have the advantage at QB, then you are the better team imo.
i gave colorado some consideration, as i do think they can make a jump in their division, but ultimately i don't think they have the athleticism, especially on defense, to deal with the b12 south teams...i don't know which ones they play this year, but if they have ou, ut, and osu then those are 3 losses imo, and would knock them out of any top 10 bcs finish
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Trent...If they set the over/under for wins for Colorado in a season at 6 like the books did before last season, I'll be taking the over. Although I don't think the Buffs will even get a sniff of the top 10, I think overall they will be at least as good and probably a bit better than they were last season. Although they lose a good number of starts on defense, we have to keep in mind that Hawkins started out the season with 73 scholarship players, but because of the high number of injuries the Buffs had, they were left with just 49 scholarship players at the end of the season. I haven't really looked, but I would imagine that he got to redshirt a few of those players. The Buffs main problem was their offensive line injuries. They should be much more stable there this next season. And I have a feeling that Hawkins will end up starting that young hotshot QB Ballenger. He was kind of thrown to the wolves as a freshman this past season with the offensive line injuries. But he looks to me like he has a lot of talent. And he's much more athletic and has a bigger arm than Cody Hawkins. So I definitely see them as being more of a threat on offense next year. Especially with a healthy and more experienced sophomore RB Scott in the lineup. And Hawkins has recruited some nice 6-4 and 6-5 WR's out of this 2009 class. So you could see one or two of them starting right away. But the big reason I like the Buffs to win over 6 games is their schedule. Although they play Texas and OSU from the South, they get all of the rest of their hard games at home. They get to play Kansas, Nebraska, Missouri and Texas A&M in Boulder. And KSU and ISU on the road. Very winnable games. They play WV, OSU and Texas on the road. That will probably be 3 losses. But I don't see Colorado losing more than 2 more games out of the other 6 I mentioned. This would make it a 7-5 season. And 6-6 at worst, barring injuries.
GS-
i'm thinking that colorado might be better this year but 7 wins looks like the max unless there are injuries to teams they face...one thing i don't like is the 6 road games...remember last year i took miami under 8 and one of the big reasons was 6 road games...unless you are an elite team you don't win more than 2 road games in conference...you can check but it's pretty amazing how consistent that ends up being (remember, that's unless you're an elite team, so this doesn't refer to OU or texas and the like). i would take o6 if the juice isn't too high but probably not o6.5
between you and me, take a look at uga...5 home games!!!
in 2007 when i took fsu u9.5 they also only had 5 home games...i know uga has more talent than that fsu team but i could see them going 7-5, possibly even 6-6...their ooc includes @ok st to start the season, @ gtech to close the season, and home to asu after @ ark (improved) and before LSU (probably better than uga this season)...they should beat asu but it's not a week off like playing the citadel...@ tennessee and @ auburn will be much tougher this year, they probably go 2-2 in conference on the road, lose to UF, and either ok st or gtech (or both!), and home to LSU...to me they have 3 games they should definitely win (@ vandy, home to tenn tech and kentucky)...the cumulative effect of all those tough games, and all those road games, usually leads to an unexpected loss somewhere on the schedule as well....i would take u8 but could possibly get u8.5 since they're such a name program
NC State, for sure, if they are not ranked. ended the year on a great roll and have the most dynamic offensive player in the acc.
would not be surprised if the big east had no top 25 team so whoever plays in the BCS for them will be ranked. I guess maybe voters will remember Cincy's solid year plus Pike returning, and put them in the top 25
a chance for Baylor as well, depending on their schedule which is always rough
would not be surprised if the big east had no top 25 team so whoever plays in the BCS for them will be ranked. I guess maybe voters will remember Cincy's solid year plus Pike returning, and put them in the top 25
a chance for Baylor as well, depending on their schedule which is always rough
Trent...A team that I think could take a pretty good dive next season is Missouri. They lose a 4 year QB in Chase Daniel. And they play only 5 home games. They still have to play Illinois in their first neutral site game. There will be a significant QB mismatch in that game between Juice Williams and whoever the Tigers field. And we both know that Illinois is way overdue to win one in this series. Missouri then has to go on the road against OSU, Colorado, KSU and Kansas. And they have a home game against Texas. They also play Nevada on the road. That may not be an easy early season game to win for a young QB going on his first true road trip out of state.. When I look at their schedule I see 6 winnable games against Nebraska, KSU, Nevada, Bowling Green, Baylor and Iowa State. But my bet is they'll lose one of those winnable games, and probably steal one somewhere on the road. Bottom line is I don't see Mizzou winning more than 6 games next season. And after losing over half of their starters, a 4 or 5 win season is a real possibilty. If they set their win total at 6 or above, I'll probably make a play on the under. Trent...I'm looking forward to getting a thread started this summer after the books set the team win totals. We did good last season after starting one of these threads. I went 8 for 10 in my preseason team win totals picks. And I know you also did very well. So let's get our heads together when we get the numbers on these teams.
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If anyone wants to know why Coach Tiller decided to retire last season it is not hard to figure out. LY Purdue carried 79 players on their roster with 42 SR's meaning they return 37 players this year. Players returning this year scored a whopping 56 points last season for a mere 4.66 pg. They do return 8 starters on defense but off of a team that gave up 25 pg. Purdue has the worst rating of any team I have previewed to date.
In fact they had a rating below zero. How would you like to inherit that nightmare. They actually rated just below Indiana who they beat 62-10 in Tiller's filnale LY. Go figure.
In fact they had a rating below zero. How would you like to inherit that nightmare. They actually rated just below Indiana who they beat 62-10 in Tiller's filnale LY. Go figure.
that schedule definitely looks tough for mizzou...i'm just curious to see if it was the qb (daniel) or the system...it could be a texas tech type of situation where they just plug in a new guy each year, as their offense seems very "QB friendly"...also interesting to see how oc christensen's departure affects them...some times it's the coach (urban meyer), some time's it's the coordinators...
2 yrs ago u7.5 ND and u9.5 FSU were no-brainers, bad lines that were listed just for name recognition...last year before the numbers came out i made a win total for the 30 or so teams that i knew really well...what's important is not to go game by game, but rather a wholistic approach...look at their road games and see how many w's and L's you get...then do the same for home games...then re-do it w/ conference and non-conference...then do 3 4-game sets and see if their schedule looks any different...then look at best case and worst case
the importance, as you well know, is to leave all biases out...there's always an unexpected w or L on that schedule...for that reason, once i had a number, i would look to find and 1.5 game difference once the books listed the totals...this way, if i was off by a game, or there was a lucky win or loss, i had a so called "built in cushion" to withstand it...
i had purdue as 5.5; they were listed at 7. hence, i took under
i had asu as 7; they were listed 8.5. again, i took under
i had um 6.5; they were listed 8. once again, i took under.
i wanted to take michigan st o7 but i had them as 8 so i passed...i gave away a winner, but i feel it's better to be conservative than aggressive with these since you have in essence a play on them every week!!
after spring ball we can start making lists of teams we know well and bounce them off each other...i have a pretty good handle on b10, acc, sec, and some random other teams (pittsburg, ND)...you're an expert w/ b12 so we should be able to find a "soft" line somewhere in each conference!!
btw- i'm starting to think tennessee and ucla might be better than expected next season, as both have solid defenses even with poor offenses last year and both have recruited well the last few years...2nd season for neuheisal, and the change from cutcliffe to clawson was so bad that the UT offense has to improve...maybe not for season win totals but as underdog plays or small home favs during the season
Trent...As far as Missouri goes, I'll have to do a little more research. This is one that kind of stuck out to me as far as Big 12 teams schedules go. Your right about Mizzou playing system football on offense. So they'll just be "plugging in" Much like Texas Tech. But I can remember even Texas Tech struggling on offense in Harrell's first year. Especially when he went on the road. It's still not easy for a rookie QB to come in and make the reads he needs to make from the spread formation. It's helpful if a team has some defense to fall back on in this case. Mizzou loses 7 starters off of this defense. Now if your like me you might be thinking this could be a good thing...LOL. But at any rate, we don't know what they're going to field next year. And Pinkel's recruiting hasn't been so hot the last couple years. Definitely not as good as Kansas, Colorado or Nebraska from their division. So this will play a part in making my decision on this team. And losing OC Christensen could be a bigger deal than we think. Don't forget that Pinkel has kept this exact same coaching staff together for the last 9 years. So he's losing a longtime assistant. It all depends what kind of ideas a new coach is going to bring to the table with this team. And whether Pinkel is willing to change. The way they struggled against good defenses makes me think they might make a few changes next season. We should know more after the spring game.
