the true measure. ATS

[uscmd]

ATS.....21 of the 32 teams are 5-4 or 4-5. The outliers, in both directions. With average line off. diff between score including the line.
Win by 10, as 7 pt fav, you are +3. The number is the average line off, of the full slate of games

How is Phil 6-3, but -1.3.

7-2
Sea. +9.3
L.A. +5.7

7-3
N.E. +5.7

6-3
Phil. -1.3
Det. 4.5

6-3-1
Indy 7.9

------------------------------------------------
3-6
GB. -1.9
Cle. -2.6
Cin -6.2
Tenn. -6.4

3-7
Wash. -4.0

 

[pigskinpete]

The team that stands out to me is Cincy because they have really put up points especially in the Flacco games, how bad must that defense be?!…of course now they are coming off a bye and likely get Hendrickson back, so they’ll probably hold the Steelers to 17-20 points

 

[ACE-ACE]

Never been a team that have a minus that made it to the Super Bowl


like how you think!!!

 

[uscmd]

The one that caught my eye was Phil. 6-3 ats, but in the red lineoff wise.

Cinn worst in league, pts allowed. 33+ per game.

Hou and LAR, top the list, Hou 16.7, LA 17 per game. The other day I heard a stat the blew me away. Stafford 1st qb in NFL history to go 3 straight with 4 td passing and 0 interceptions, in each game.

Add to that.....his last 6 games he has 20 tds passing and 0 interceptions. Coupled with their young, healthy aggressive defense. A team to watch.

 

[uscmd]

Average line off.

One more thing. Of the 32 teams, only 10 are above zero, the other 22, are under 0, meaning their average line off, is negative. I think this is another way to explain, the leagues parity. Relative to the line each week, 22 out of 32 are underwater.

 

[uscmd]

Surprise. The top team in +/- is the bears. +14. then jax, TB and the rams, +8, +8, and +7.

On the other end Jets -10. Then SF, Min and Mia..-8, -7 and -7.

 

[uscmd]

I look for non-sequiturs in the ats, line off and +/-

The one that surprised me was Sea. At the top in ats, and line off, they were 25th in +/- at -4

bol 2 all.

 

[uscmd]

pigskinpete. you have to check, what your guts telling you.

Turns out Cinn is 13th in points per game,....24.0

top 5

Indy. 32.1
Det. 31.4
Sea. 30.6
Dal 29.2
LAR. 27.9

bottom 5

Car. 17.7
Cle. 16.2
N.O. 15.5
LV. 15.4
Ten. 14.4

BOL 2 all

 

[uscmd]

I was sitting in the kitchen having a glass of vino. And i recalled recent Cinn games with high scores:

this is Cinn's full slate. Cinn points in red

wk 1....W 17-16 vs Cle
wk 2 ...W 31-27 vs Jax
wk 3....L. 19-48 vs Min
wk4.....L. 28-3. vs Den
wk 5....L. 37-24. vs Det

wk 6 ...L. 27-18. vs gb
wk 7 ...W 31-28 vs Pit
wk 8....L 39-38. vs Jets
wk 9....L. 47-42. vs chi

Cinn per game points.. add divide by 9, you get 24

Opponent points scored, average of 37. Some very close game

 

[uscmd]

PS Pete. i think theres an important point on display here. You and I recalled high scoring Cinn games. But the data, shows something different.

As humans we are predisposed to remember the extraordinary. Which from an evolutionary, angle, contributes to our survival. In sports betting it could very well work against us. Viewing the entire data set, is a far better basis for deciding on a wager.

I spend every Tuesday, reviewing hard data, I look at who vs who. But before I start factoring in lines, I want to see as many data points as possible. Typical Tuesday, hundreds maybe 400-500
Wed is injuries, but that continues to Fri. I also look at need, desperation. Bal is a great example, they've won 3 straight, very possibly knowing a loss could be fatal. This week they get go to Cle,
spotting them ~ 8 pts
This after beating chi 30-16, winning @ mia 28-6, and winning @ minn 27-16.

bol 2 all

 

[ACE-ACE]

Average line off.

One more thing. Of the 32 teams, only 10 are above zero, the other 22, are under 0, meaning their average line off, is negative. I think this is another way to explain, the leagues parity. Relative to the line each week, 22 out of 32 are underwater.

hard to believe only 10….just check it….WOW. This is one reason its getting harder to bet NFL

good eyes!!!

 

[ACE-ACE]

Thanks for sharing…I send you a E-mail on some data you may use in your capping

 

[ACE-ACE]

including the line.
Win by 10, as 7 pt fav, you are +3. The number is the average line off, of the full slate of games

How is Phil 6-3, but -1.3.

week 6 phi play the NYG and lost by 17-34. Phi was a -7.5 favorite. Bring down lineoff 24 points!!!

 

[uscmd]

The NY game was big.
Plus they played lots of close games. 6 of the 7 wins were by 7 or less.
In order, margins of 4, 3, 7, 6, 6, 3. Only exception, +18 in the NY rematch.

 

[pigskinpete]

PS Pete. i think theres an important point on display here. You and I recalled high scoring Cinn games. But the data, shows something different.

As humans we are predisposed to remember the extraordinary. Which from an evolutionary, angle, contributes to our survival. In sports betting it could very well work against us. Viewing the entire data set, is a far better basis for deciding on a wager.

I spend every Tuesday, reviewing hard data, I look at who vs who. But before I start factoring in lines, I want to see as many data points as possible. Typical Tuesday, hundreds maybe 400-500
Wed is injuries, but that continues to Fri. I also look at need, desperation. Bal is a great example, they've won 3 straight, very possibly knowing a loss could be fatal. This week they get go to Cle,
spotting them ~ 8 pts
This after beating chi 30-16, winning @ mia 28-6, and winning @ minn 27-16.

bol 2 all

I was focused on only games with Flacco starting, averaging close to 35 a game with an 11-2 TD-INT ratio and really only having a day to prepare for GB…I knew the line off would be high with Browning at QB because he turned it over a lot putting an already bad D in a worse position…presumably Flacco‘s success would allow the Bengals D to be better rested and the opposing offenses would have longer fields to work with…It didn’t matter, Pitt, NYJ, and the Bears still put up big numbers…Bottom line is this Bengals defense has been awful no matter what their offense has done…the question for this week is can they make some adjustments during the bye week that leads to improvement?

 

[Michelangelo]

The one that caught my eye was Phil. 6-3 ats, but in the red lineoff wise.

Cinn worst in league, pts allowed. 33+ per game.

Hou and LAR, top the list, Hou 16.7, LA 17 per game. The other day I heard a stat the blew me away. Stafford 1st qb in NFL history to go 3 straight with 4 td passing and 0 interceptions, in each game.

Add to that.....his last 6 games he has 20 tds passing and 0 interceptions. Coupled with their young, healthy aggressive defense. A team to watch.

The Rams and Seahawks are looking much the best in the NFC at this point.

Should be a great game to watch on Sunday afternoon when they hook up.

 

[skoda]

PS Pete. i think theres an important point on display here. You and I recalled high scoring Cinn games. But the data, shows something different.

As humans we are predisposed to remember the extraordinary. Which from an evolutionary, angle, contributes to our survival. In sports betting it could very well work against us. Viewing the entire data set, is a far better basis for deciding on a wager.

I spend every Tuesday, reviewing hard data, I look at who vs who. But before I start factoring in lines, I want to see as many data points as possible. Typical Tuesday, hundreds maybe 400-500
Wed is injuries, but that continues to Fri. I also look at need, desperation. Bal is a great example, they've won 3 straight, very possibly knowing a loss could be fatal. This week they get go to Cle,
spotting them ~ 8 pts
This after beating chi 30-16, winning @ mia 28-6, and winning @ minn 27-16.

bol 2 all

My read on this is Browns are the play. Number crunching hard long work.

Burrow back for Thanksgiving against Ravens. His plan….

 

[uscmd]

Skoda, Cle last 5 ats L L W L L. Balt L L W W W.

I think Balt is in playoff mode. So we know we are going to give a maximum effort. Cle is 28th record wise.
So this year their horizons are limited. At 7.5, Cle is a reasonble, but like the jets theres a point when teams focus drops. I like balt, but in division games, tend to make points dearer. Gabriel at qb, Shaddeur his bu.

For me its Balt or pass. Earlier today there were Bal -5.5's out there. I hate being indecisive, But at cle +7.5 or 8. Thats my reality.

bol with all your plays

 

[ACE-ACE]

Talking about Clev vs Bal. Defense is better on Cleve side

base on home and getting points….keeping the score down
they have the edge myline is Cleve -6

 

[uscmd]

Sea @ rams.....easily game of the week (eagles, lions close behind). I believe these are 2 of the top teams in the entire NFL. In fact this game could be candidate for game of the year.

After checking I found out thur and mon night games flex starts week 12 and 13. Sunday night earlier, but no gripe with Det @ Phil. But Sea @ LA at 1 pm, pst.....while mon nt fb offers us Dal @ LV is a joke.

I realize there are minimums and maximums involved. But I feel for fans out of market, that don't have the Sunday ticket. You might check the nfl channel, they often rebroadcast. I just did a search and it will be reshown, later on prime ticket. And if a great, down to the wire game, possibly on nfl channel