The Sports Cruncher's Week #11 Write Ups

[thecruncher]

I was bullish on the Bills last week, predicting an outright victory at New England. Boy did they make me look bad, lol. As expected, they didn’t get much going on the ground versus the Patriots, but what surprised me was how awful Trent Edwards and the passing game was. Maybe something really did get jarred loose in his head in that concussion he sustained at Saint Louis. Against one of the thinnest secondaries in the league he did almost nothing. Granted, he was without his #2 receiver, but that’s no excuse, there were still plenty of guys to throw the ball to. The defense looked equally inept, letting the Patriots convert third downs over and over. It’s not so much that the Patriots won that game, it’s more that the Bills just flat out lost it.

The Patriots face a divisional rival at home for the second week in a row. They beat the Jets 19-10 at The Meadowlands back in week #2. Things have changed since then. Brett Favre is now running the offensive efficiently, relying more on the 1st and 2nd level passes as of late, and they’re trusting in Thomas Jones and their run game more than they did early in the year. I remember begging into the void for them to run the ball earlier this season, calling Mangenius a Mantard for not doing so more, and it looks like the message finally got through, lol.

There’s really not much detail to go into in this game. It’s as clear as neon paint on a chalkboard – the Jets are better than the Patriots in just about every facet of the game. They run the ball better, they defend the run better. They pass the ball better, they defend the pass better. They sack opposing quarterbacks more while getting sacked less. They have a higher punt yards for average and a lower punt yards against average. They have a higher red zone conversion rate for and a lower red zone conversion rate against. Gostkowski has a stronger leg for more kickoff touchbacks for the Pats. If you rate that higher than all of the previous statistical disadvantages I listed, then by all means bet the Patriots in this game, lol. In spite of all this statistical inferiority the Belichick/Patriots mystique saw them open up as a 4 point favorite in this contest. Yes we jumped it and the line quickly came down. As of this writing the average line is Pats -3 (-120). Just like last week, the sharp money came in early against the Pats.

The Patriots have been winning games by virtue of playing a schedule loaded with weak run defenses. That comes to a halt this week, as the Jets have the 4th ranked rush defense. Cassel will no longer find himself in so many favorable passing situations, and will revert back to getting sacked and making some poor throws like he was doing earlier in the season. Just once this week I’d like to see him take off right up the middle of the pocket and instead of scrambling for a first down get whacked and fumble the ball, lol. Randy Moss missed a lot of plays last week, so his foot was clearly bothering him. With a short week leading up to the Thursday game, I’m not sure how much effective practice time he’ll see, or indeed how healthy his injury will be come Thursday. Getting points in this game is a gift, especially anything 3 or higher, as the numbers once again indicate the Patriots will be upset, and this time it seems even more likely with Brett Favre leading a balanced attack instead of Trent Edwards “leading” a one dimensional passing attack that ended up being hampered by the injuries at WR and the offensive line.

Final Score Prediction: Jets 21 – Patriots 17

 

[merci4one]

very interestin write-up, i'll take it...

 

[ZJP6050]

god, am i glad to see you on this game crunch. i was all over the jets these last few weeks and i was heading for ML against the pats also. you've now solidified my decision buddy. i see two similar defenses with the jets having a more potent offense against a NE banged up D. best of luck bro!

 

[ChuckBooms]

This is a gutsy bet. Good analysis, Cruncher. I actually am watching Cassell every week, and while he's getting better, he still is limited. And that offense is average. I agree with you that the Jets run "D" will put a stop to this.

 

[WormyPix]

With LB Adalius Thomas out too NE's "D" will have a harder time with Thomas Jones & Washington. STL was god awful, so don't judge them on last wk's performance, but with that kind of momentum, it's hard not to go with da Jets.

And let's not forget that Mangini still relishes beating his old boss!

Good to see you on the forum, Crunch, BOL!

 

[Sea-Urchin]

I like that pick as well...Jets and the ML.

 

[tek2977]

Guys...just an FYI that I hear 80% chance of rain for tomorrow nights game

 

[Sea-Urchin]

Guys...just an FYI that I hear 80% chance of rain for tomorrow nights game

Hmm....under?

 

[thecruncher]

Yes, 80% chance of rain with 10 mph winds. The wind won't be too bad, though it will be increasing as the day progresses. The temperature should be in the 40s during game time. Slick fields that are still in good condition favor the passing offense, so I'd be a little leery of the Under unless the winds hit the 20mph range. When is the last time Cassel played in a game where it was raining? As the old song goes: "It never rains in Southern Califooooornia." Call me cuh-razy, but I'm going to say that Brett Favre has a little more experience than Matt Cassel in poor weather games, lol. Honestly, it's quite possible that Matt Cassel has never played a single game at QB in a downpour with temperatures in the 40s in his entire life!

 

[WormyPix]

No rain in NE, but it sure was raining $$$ for us!

I unfortunately took the under as well, so it put a damper on my ML play. But we did well here!

 

[thecruncher]

Yes we did, Wormy! 1st Q., 1st H. and game winners on the Jets, though I gave a little back on some props that were counting on there being rain/poor playing conditions, lol.

 

[Brotherwo]

 

[thecruncher]

Eagles @ Bengals

The Eagles, as a football team, could be compared to undersized bullies. They pick on weaker opponents relentlessly, but often get punched right back in the face and lose when facing opponents who possess strong running games with powerful backs. The Giants’ run game ground the Eagles to a patriotic pulp last week, showing little respect for the national bird. The Redskins’ potent run offense with Portis also controlled the game in a Philly loss in week #5. The 49ers led late into the game with Gore goring the small Eagles’ defense until a complete and utter meltdown by O’Sullivan in the 4th quarter gave the Eagles a storm from behind cover.

The Eagles’ defense, like the Colts, is one built to play for a team that holds the lead in the second half. Both are small and quick with better secondaries than defensive lines, and indeed their defensive lines are better pass rushers than ground stoppers. The Eagles’ defense feasts on opposing quarterbacks in obvious passing situations as their bevy of blitzes leads to 3.11 sacks and 1 interception per game. Look at poor Ben Roethlisberger who was sacked an astonishing 9 times when trying to lead his team from behind in week #3 (though I think he was injured in that game and may not have taken all of those sacks himself). The Eagles have averaged 4.4 sacks per game in the games they’ve won, and only 1.5 in the games they’ve lost. Clearly, once they’re not so concerned with stopping the run they thrive defensively.

Fortunately for the Eagles’ defense, they’re back to playing a team that is more patsy than powerful. The Bengals have been atrocious this year, and just managed to grab their first victory of the season two weeks ago at home versus the Jaguars before their bye. The Bengals, of course, have been without QB Carson Palmer the last 6 games, and have suffered for it. Palmer had gotten off to a slow start facing 3 of the toughest defenses in the league – the Ravens’, Titans’ and Giants’, but had improved each game and indeed pushed the Giants to overtime before losing. Since Ryan Fitzpatrick has taken over at QB the Bengals have thrown for over 200 yards only once in 6 games and have averaged just 141 yards passing per game, and when you’re trying to make up a deficit for most of the game those are pathetic numbers. Their run offense has improved since bringing in Cedric Benson – they’ve averaged 111 run yards per game and almost 4.5 yards per carry in their last 3. You’d think (though you never know with some coaches) that the Bengals would like to shorten this game with repeated runs by Cedric Benson. If they’re really interested in winning, they need to limit Fitzpatrick’s pass attempts in this game. The Bengals’ QBs have been sacked 3.3 times per game and thrown 1.1 interceptions per game. Fitzpatrick has also been fumble-prone when taking hits in the backfield. Being a fairly inexperienced quarterback, he’s exactly the kind of quarterback the Eagles’ defense could demolish if the run game has to be limited in the second half.

So I expect the Bengals to run as much as humanly possible on offense as that figures to be their best chance for success and serves the added beneficial purpose of shortening the game. Defensively is there anything they can do to limit the Eagles’ offensive weapons? The answer is a maybe leaning towards no. The Bengals have been a fair defensive team this year, certainly better than last year’s injured and inept squad. They’re better at defending the pass than the run, which suits them as the Eagles are better at passing than running. Clearly the Eagles will try to get their run game going versus a below average run defense, as all pass attacks benefit from believable play action. McNabb has gotten off to many slow starts as of late, so maybe the Eagles will come out running for a change. Overall, it will be hard for the Bengals to consistently stop the Eagles’ offense as the Eagles should do better than league average in yards per play for both their running and passing plays. When you can’t cheat with an extra player to stop either the run or the pass, you’re basically at the mercy of the opponent’s offensive execution, and the Eagles have certainly been known to execute, ne assassinate weak defenses over the years. Look for the Eagles to be the bullies on the road again in a similar match up to the one they faced two weeks ago in Seattle. Seattle scored on a 90 yard touchdown pass on their first offensive play of the game, but that was the end of it as the Eagles went on to win 26-7. The numbers indicate this game will be pretty near a carbon copy of that one.

Final Score Prediction: Eagles 24 – Bengals 10


I'll post two more write ups tomorrow morning, BOL to everyone this week!

 

[WormyPix]

Insightful writeup Crunch! I like this gm as well, due to the fact that PHI does seem to pound the weaker teams. But, with CIN coming off it's first win, and a bye to game plan, plus PHI coming off a real letdown loss, and now on the road (how's that for a run-on sentence!) I'm staying away from this big spread.

But, I believe you are on the right side. BOL ma'man!

 

[thecruncher]

Cardinals @ Seahawks


“It’s What’s Known as a Mismatch”



Matt Hasselbeck has been cleared to play for the Seahawks this week. Whoopety-freakin’-do. He will still be throwing the ball to a below average receiving corps. They do get Deion Branch back who hopes to make it through an entire game this season after being out since the first. Their leading receiver as of late has been TE John Carlson, who’s been demonstrating as of late an equally good ability with both catching and dropping balls. Fullback Leonard Weaver will be out again, the one man wrecking crew who beat the 49ers by himself. This Seahawks’ offense is a few good hits away from being the same offense that couldn’t score in the final 3 and 3/4ths quarters of the game versus Philly a couple of weeks ago. The Cardinals are prone to late hits and may lay one on Hasselbeck or Branch just to put them out of the game. Not that I would condone such a thing.



A couple of weeks ago I wrote how teams were loading up to stop the Seattle run after Hasselbeck was injured. Coach Holmgren said as much last week. It will be interesting to see how much respect the Arizona defense will pay to Hasselbeck’s return. I think they’ll still focus on the run until Hasselbeck proves he’s rust-free in this game. Matt did only have a 57.7 passer rating before getting his disc bulged. He has to overcome an injury and his poor play to have a chance of winning this game, which is a pretty tall order. The Cardinals have a fairly solid defense front to back, and have been better at stopping the run than the pass this year (and their pass defense numbers really suffered in that one game versus the Jets when they were missing SS Adrian Wilson). Still, the 49ers were able to move the ball on them last week, so they won’t need Tom Cruise peeling a Mission Impossible mask from his face to have some offensive success.



Where the Seahawks will lose this game, however, is defensively. It’s no secret that the Cardinals’ high-flying passing game has been blessed by no less than the Man Upstairs himself, who surely takes exception to the lack of public nudity laws in Seattle and will continue to smite the Seahawks as a result. Nobody likes to see naked people riding bicycles. The Seahawks’ secondary is like a book of matches, slight of stature just waiting to get burned. Without a pass rush since Patrick Kerney was lost to injury, I’m not sure the Seahawks will have any defensive solutions other than flat out blitzes over and over hoping for the occasional sack, pick, or 3 and out. With time, Kurt Warner could complete passes with the opponent’s entire roster milling about in the secondary. 45% of his career starts have gone for 300+ passing yards? That’s insanely good. As are Fitzgerald, Boldin & Breaston. The Cardinals have the 3rd best yards per pass by my rescored rankings, while the Seahawks have the 8th worst pass defense. It’s what’s known as a mismatch. Hightower has given the Cardinals a spark in the running game this year as well. The forecast has cleared up so weather shouldn’t be an issue at all in Seattle on Sunday. Somebody upstairs is making sure of that.



Speaking of all out blitzes, it was fun to watch the Cardinals line up and shoot the A gap versus the 49ers last Monday. I hope they do some of the same to the Seahawks this week – but I also hope they keep from dangling their numerous appendages over the line of scrimmage this time, as I don’t think the old ticker can stand seeing multiple interceptions called back again.



Cardinals -2.5 was the opening line and 2 units on the Cards was the recommended play, which is now sitting pretty with the line at -3 with varying degrees of juice.



Final Score Prediction: Cardinals 28 – Seahawks 20



Saints @ Chiefs


“It’s What’s Known as a Mismatch Part II”



Oh when the Saint go marching on the road this year, the marching has turned to martyrdom in every case. They did win in London, however, and rarely has a contingent of Catholic-named crusaders been so cordially courted on the Anglican Isle (I’m still waiting for the Steelers to play there so we can see side by side photos of the two Big Bens every half hour on the NFL network for an entire week). The last time the Saints ventured out of the bayou up into the Midwest was in week #3 versus the Broncos. A Martin Grammatical error cost them the game – anything less than 50 yards is a chip shot in Denver, so his 43 yard miss that would have given them a 1 point lead was inexcusable.



The Saint’s road woes are not attributable to a lack of offense, just a lack of turning those yards into points. Well, that and their defense, which has given up an average of 31.8 points on the road this year. Even in their one lone blowout road loss, 7-30 at Carolina, they still outgained the Panthers in total yards. Drew Brees and the Saints have the highest yards per pass average by my rescored stats this year, and they haven’t even played versus any of the 8 weakest secondaries in the league. That’s impressive. The Broncos are the weakest secondary they’ve played ranked 24th. The Chiefs are ranked 29th and have several injured defensive starters who are both out and questionable coming into this game. Who knows, maybe it’s a bad news/good news situation for the Chiefs. When you’re ranked near last in defense maybe the replacements will bring up your level of play a little. Or maybe the Saints will score on every possession. Not only are the Chiefs the weakest secondary the Saints have faced, the Chiefs are dead last in the league in sack percentage per pass plays defensed, while the Saints are #1 in fewest sacks per passing plays allowed. It’s what’s known as a mismatch, part II.



Deuce McCallister isn’t going to return two punts for touchdowns in a game anytime soon, but he’s a better short yardage back than Reggie Bush, which is something any predominantly passing team needs to convert those short 3rd downs. Running back by committee is really all you need to have decent success versus the Chiefs’ run defense, which is ranked dead last in the league. The weather will be fairly mild by Kansas City mid-November standards, so nothing stands in the way of the Saints having a huge offensive game, except the turnovers and missed field goals that have plagued them in enemy territory. With average luck, it won’t be an issue.



The Chiefs’ offense has undergone a recent resurrection by putting last-man-standing QB Thigpen into a semi-spread offense with many shotgun snaps like the system he played in during his college years. They put up a very impressive amount of yards and points versus a tough Tampa Bay defense in their last home game two weeks ago. RB Larry Johnson returns to the field for the first time in about a month. Note to Saints’ defenders: make sure you settle for no less than a 15 yard penalty if he spits in your face. The Saints’ defense is very vulnerable to the long ball, so expect the Chiefs to attack deep as well – they had a WR option play that resulted in a 40+ yard td pass to no other than QB Thigpen versus Tampa. If the Chiefs fall behind as expected, the second half should be an entertaining air-fest that puts this game Over the total even if the first half scoring has lagged a little behind.



Final Score Prediction: Saints 34 – Chiefs 23

 

[sds23]

Good stuff Crunch. BOL this week buddy!

 

[thecruncher]

Thanks SDS, 4 for 5 on sides and totals recommended from the write ups so far today -- go Arizona!

 

[Thomas]

Nice stuff cruncher, as per usual...you are a great read and I thank you for that. gl in your endeavours as you move forward.

Tom

 

[thecruncher]

Thanks, Tom. Great week so far, +17.9 units.