The Sports Cruncher's 2015 CFB Week 08 Lines & Market Plays

[thecruncher]

2 Units

Old Dominion +14.5 @ FIU
Duke +4.5 @ VT (-115)
Toledo -9.5 @ MASS

1.2 Units

Wyoming +32 @ BSU (-115)
South Alabama +5 @ Texas State
Connecticut +13 @ CIN
UNC -14 vs UVA (-115)
Nebraska -6.5 vs NW (-115)
Syracuse +6.5 vs PITT

1 Unit

Boston College +8.5 @ Louisville

.6 Unit

Maryland +8.5 vs PSU
Illinois +7 vs WIS
Mississippi -6 vs TA&M (wouldn't surprise me if it went down, though, after Ole Miss losing 2 in a row)
EMU +27.5 @ NIU

.5 Unit

Kansas +35 @ OKST
New Mexico +7.5 @ SJSJ

 

[thecruncher]

Adding for 0.5 unit: TEX -3.5 vs KSU

KSU's demoralizing loss to TCU had a lingering effect it would appear, with symptoms difficult to distinguish from death. They don't have a QB with any sort of confidence right now. Texas had a great game running the ball last time out in the upset of OKLA. Maybe they've figured some things out that will carry over. KSU just doesn't have the offensive weapons to regain any swagger on the road versus a Texas team with some home field advantage to start the game, for once. Bill Snyder is the wizard, but he's not Jesus, I don't think he can raise the team from the dead well enough to cover this week. Still, just a small play, because you know, Texas, lol.

 

[thecruncher]

I hate it when some lines come out later than the first wave, makes it harder to catch them right off.

Adding for 1.2 Units: Army +10.5 @ Rice

 

[thecruncher]

Adding for 0.6 unit: MIZZ -2.5 @ VAN

 

[thecruncher]

Adding for 0.5 Unit: MTU +7.5 @ LT

Not a lot of line value, but MTU does have a good match up with their passing game versus a very suspect LT secondary.

 

[thecruncher]

Adding for 0.5 unit: FAU -5.5 @ UTEP

UTEP is my lowest rated FBS team right now, by a healthy margin. Going to bet even small line value against them right now.

 

[Kiln]

Auburn +5'. Do I take it now, or hold out for more (though I'm suspecting SU win)?

 

[thecruncher]

I like Arkansas to win by 7.

 

[thecruncher]

Looks like Dr. Bob or whoever still hates Wyoming is firing against the Cowboys again (the team that has covered for me the last three weeks). The line is up to +35 so I'll buy another 1.2 units on them. Should be able to pick up at least 4 points of line value from there.

 

[thecruncher]

Adding for 1 Unit:

UL Monroe -1.5 @ Idaho

Getting some line value because of last week's games where Idaho won straight up versus terrible Troy, while ULM got waxed by Appalachian. Idaho still has the much worse defense -- ULM should get enough going on the ground to win and cover. Of course the same thing that creates line value makes it psychologically a bit dangerous with Idaho gaining confidence and ULM now traveling after a demoralizing loss. More often than not teams come to play each week, though. Both teams know this is one the of the few winnable games they have this year.

 

[Kiln]

I like Arkansas to win by 7.

Fair enough. But which way do you think the line will go?

 

[thecruncher]

3 Units:


CLEM @ MIA Over 53


Buying 3 to set up middle/buy back. This one will go up, or at least it should, lol. Miami will be passing all game, and CLEM should have success running and a bit passing as well.


1 Unit:


CAL @ UCLA OVER 64
AUB @ ARK OVER 48
KU @ OKST UNDER 62.5
UK @ MSST OVER 54
FSU @ GT OVER 56


.6 Unit:


USM @ CHAR OVER 56.5
TULN @ NAVY UNDER 58
TOL @ MASS OVER 59.5
TA&M @ MISS OVER 66


.5 Unit:


NCST @ WAKE UNDER 47
UVA @ UNC OVER 63
UTAH @ USC OVER 58

 

[thecruncher]

Fair enough. But which way do you think the line will go?

I don't think it will do much, maybe go to ARK -6 or so.

 

[MIDWEST_MAN]

I LOVE the ODU pick. I will be placing a lot on that game! NOW is the time to jump on ODU!

Do NOT like that Toledo UMASS spread....if anything I would take UMASS there. UMASS is way overlooked....they have the power to win that game if they win the turnover battle.

I do like the Wyoming +32 to as well.

GL Crunch, love looking at your plays. When we both match I really win some money. I usually tread lightly if we don't....I play about 5-10 plays a week.

 

[TheOracle6]

Thanks for your input crunch. Always like to see if any of my plays line up with yours.

 

[thecruncher]

Thx, guys.

Adding or .6 Unit FAU @ UTEP Under 58.5 (-110 5D)

Moving elsewhere, don't think it will be around for long.

 

[tmader7]

Need more units, LOL. I'm still around, just pissed off at these guys running the forum. Take the books money my friend.

~T~

 

[thecruncher]

Tomater, come back, brother!

NCST @ WAKE total going up, so adding a 1/2 unit more on Under 48.5 (-110 BOL)

 

[thecruncher]

Some rain forecast for areas this weekend, including the areas of many of my Overs. Grr. The highest wind forecast so far at 16 mph is on my biggest Over as well, CLEM @ MIA. Double GrrrGrrr. I don't want to have to dance around getting off while the number is still above and then rebuying when it goes low, but if the weather forecast gets bad enough then that's what it will come down to.

 

[tmader7]

You're playing an ACC game without my input, LOLOLOLOLOLOL. You know where I live now, I own the conference.

~T~