The Sports Cruncher's 2015 CFB Week 01 Market Plays

[thecruncher]

The Sports Cruncher's 2015 CFB Week #1 Recommended Market Plays

I put a decent chunk of my bankroll down on season wins this year for the first time, which actually isn't terrible as I play a high volume/low risk style for attacking the market. My intention 100% is to have less plays overall, as I tend to play soooo many on any given week, lol. In spite of a 53%+ overall win rate last year I ended up a small loser, that after that after having a good 30+ unit win the previous season I handicapped (my 2nd in NCAA after many years of NFL only), and that after a losing season my first year playing the college foots.

I'm going to start the season with nothing but 1/2 unit plays until we're several weeks in, in part because of my season play investments and also as it's typically good to be conservative until I have a good base of this year's stats to work with.

CMU +22 vs. OKST

Based on last years stats alone there's huge value on CMU, but we know that OKST had an uncharacteristically down year due to youth and injuries. So the real questions for this game are:

#1 How much better will OKST be this year, and in their first game? Their running game was really poor last year, while CMU's rush defense actually ranked pretty high for a MAC team. That's the kind of match up that favors the big dog, as with any kind of a healthy lead the big favorite doesn't rate to add much to their lead late if they can't control the clock and possessions with the run game. It's why Washington -6 (I think it was) 2nd half in their Bowl game against OKST last year was one of my favorite 2nd half plays of the Bowls. Washington started the 2nd half with the ball and easily covered the 2nd half spread in spite of looking pretty terrible in the 1st half. OKST couldn't add to their lead while protecting the win.

#2 How much worse will CMU potentially be with a new head coach, and not a particularly well regarded hire at that? This will be interesting to see, because CMU returns their QB and a decent amount of talent on both sides of the ball (once again -- by MAC standards). CMU's pass defense wasn't particularly well tested during the season and then in the Bowl game WKU shredded them like cut rate cheddar cheese. If this game gets ugly, it will be cause OKST continues to go for scores via the pass even with a healthy lead.

My projections do factor in regression, so in this case they anticipate that OKST will bounce back in the categories they performed poorly in last year. Even still, I'm showing plenty of value on CMU catching 3+ touchdowns at home. I'm not sure what the line truly opened as, but I know it's been as high as 23. It's currently creeping down even to 21.5. Best to lock it in before it hits +21.

More to come...

 

[thecruncher]

FIU +17 @ UCF

Here's another game where a fairly large favorite (UCF) doesn't have a favorable enough advantage in the running game to control the clock late, if needed. Florida International had a pretty bad offense last year, but enough defense to hang in there for some covers. They were fairly young last year, so if they go anywhere it just be slightly up. UCF does get their fairly good QB and passing game back, but the defense, the strength of their team, lost a lot of players. My numbers last year tended to be sour on UCF, sometimes for good, sometimes for bad. In what should be a low scoring game played just into the mid 40s, the points that the dog are getting are even more valuable. If FIU can get even double digit points on the scoreboard I think they have a good chance of covering.

 

[thecruncher]

MICH +6 @ UTAH

Look, if Michigan ends up being a decent to good team this year this is the best price you'll probably ever get on them. I tended to see MICH as undervalued last year -- the only problem being that you rarely knew if they were going to play like it or not. I liked them to cover the rivalry game against MSU, but when Michigan planted a flag or some such nonsense pre game it pissed off MSU and HC Dantonio enough that the Spartans went for an extra score at the end of the game instead of running out the clock, costing me the cover. If there's any way possible to lose a play, I think I've been on the wrong side of it, lol. A few years ago I was 0-2 in wagers decided by an intentional safety in the final minute of a game, for example. Ouch.

So yeah, MICH and Harbaugh are an unknown quantity this year, but at least defensively they shouldn't drop off much from last year. Utah I think is rather over-valued, as they took advantage of pretty much every opportunity possible to pull some major upsets last year against an also over-rated schedule of PAC 12 teams. Or at least that's the narrative I've been spinning on the PAC this year, even if I'm in the lone voice in the wilderness on that. All of these over and under valued perceptions that my numbers try to see through converge nowhere else in week #1 like they do in this game. As you an see, my numbers see it as the wrong team favored, with Michigan winning handily. It's hard to call any week #1 game crucial, but for me this one is -- a potential validation of my line making versus many, many other prognosticators.

I've liked a few of the earliest games on the board in week #1 -- don't worry, I'm sticking to my promise of not too many plays, lol. I think there's only 3 or 4 more sides I like, and hardly any totals at all.

 

[thecruncher]

GASO +20 @ WVU

In week #1 last year, Georgia Southern took a 20-10 lead at North Carolina State into the 4th quarter. They did end up losing a 24-23 nail biter -- but that game showed the rest of the FBS world what a dangerous squad this Georgia Southern team could be. A couple of weeks after they lost at Georgia Tech 38-42. GT of course turned out to be a very strong, underrated team, and even NCST finished out the season playing very strong ball. Against new conference foes, GASO didn't always seem to have the same level of interest as they did when playing the big boys. They dropped an OT game to what would turn out be a pretty good Appalachian State, then had their only other season loss in what turned out to be a route @ Navy. They actually gained almost the same number of yards as Navy, but had a -3 turnover differential.

GASO does break in a new offensive line this year, but the core of skill positions are back, as well as a healthy portion of their defense.

West Virginia had a promising season flounder down the stretch as QB Trickett's concussions mounted, eventually leading him to retire. They still played fairly tough, but a one point heart breaking loss to TCU led to a semi-route at Texas and another home loss against a KSU team that did nothing but pass the ball well en route to victory. The season ended on a final sour note in a bad Bowl loss to TA&M.

I like GASO to do what it do -- playing the big boys tough, as long as they can keep the turnovers in check. WVU, coincidentally, had one of the worst turnover ratios in football last year, at -16. Those gambling Big 12 defenses can do that to you, I reckon.

 

[thecruncher]

[FONT=play, sans-serif]MSST -23.5 @ USM[/FONT]
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[FONT=play, sans-serif]So far it's been nothing but dogs on deck -- let's nab a big favorite as well. Last year MSST beat USM 49-0 in week #1, so even with this game being played @USM I don't think a final score prediction of 48-13 is being stingy. I personally think MSST is being over-looked this year because of graduating players, in spite of returning what is now easily the most dynamic quarterback in the SEC. I think the backdoor for USM will be 2-3 doors away by the time it matters, and they go down in flames in their own house before reaching the safety of the backyard.

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[cloverleaf]

Certainly enjoy the post on your research. Hell, so far I can't make a strong case against you.

*Other than Miss State where I (have a challenge with Roll Tide...I'm against MSU for the season)

Hope you do well this season Crunch. I wouldn't advise novice to bet against you.

 

[thecruncher]

[FONT=play, sans-serif]PSU -6.5 @ TEM[/FONT]

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[FONT=play, sans-serif]Almost identical to Michigan, if Penn State proves to be at least average offensively this may be one of the best numbers you'll see on them all season. Temple is, of course, getting a lot of pre season buzz because they turn a lot on offense and all eleven defensive starters. Let's be honest, though, their defense was still slighly below average across all of FBS, and just 4th best in their Mid Major Conference. Penn State ain't no Mid Major, and they're looking to make a serious play this year at getting back into the ranks of elite programs. Google "Sandusky" if you want to know why PSU has had to make a recovery as a program in recent years. PSU's #9 ranked defense is going to be better than TEM's #67. Both teams were ranked near #100 in offense last year -- both teams have a chance to be better. But only one team has a quarterback who is still considered a future NFL player in spite of offensive woes last year. If PSU's line has grown up at all this year, Christian Hackenburg might indeed look like a draftable player. This game will be an early road test, but one I think PSU passes with room to spare.

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[thecruncher]

Certainly enjoy the post on your research. Hell, so far I can't make a strong case against you.

*Other than Miss State where I (have a challenge with Roll Tide...I'm against MSU for the season)

Hope you do well this season Crunch. I wouldn't advise novice to bet against you.

Thanks clover -- yeah I have explicitly stated a couple of times that I'm swimming against the tide when it comes to MSST this year. I am of course, hoping to be right, but at least I've warned people if I end up being wrong, lol.

 

[thecruncher]

[FONT=play, sans-serif]FAU +7 @ TLSA[/FONT]

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[FONT=play, sans-serif]Last year FAU outgained Tulsa 518-363 yards in a 50-21 victory that was aided by a 3-0 turnover margin. This year home court is switched. Tulsa's got the new coaches and buzz of rebuilding a dangerous offense again. First years at non-elite programs are tough though, even for successful coaches. My projections have FAU winning a close one, so getting a touchdown is nice.

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I've got a heavy lean on Georgia but am not enamored at laying 35+ points, just yet (I think I'd have to bite at 34.5, honestly). I also have a heavy lean on UT-San Antonio @ ARIZ, mostly due to my numbers considering ARIZ to be overrated last year. UTSA only lost to ARIZ by 3 points at home last year. UTSA bottomed horribly mid season, suffering a lot of injuries, including all of their quarterbacks. A fresh UTSA squad should be able to stay within 30 points of an ARIZ team with little reason to run it up in week #1. Still, I'm a little leery of taking a Mid Major against a P5 on the road early in the season, as if the game gets ugly, it's more than likely to happen in just one direction. Still, if the line goes back up above 31 again, I might take a little action on the Roadrunners.

My totals lines are already surprisingly tight in week #1, showing more than 10% of line value on only games. One of those is the BAY & SMU Under, and that is because SMU this year has completely overhauled their offense and will go from being one of the slowest-paced offenses in FBS to an uptempo team. With last year's teams a total of 74 would have been ridiculous, with my number being just 56. The number has held steady at 74 -- I can't make any plays on SMU totals until they have a few games under their belt this year.

The only other game I'm showing value on is the Over in the UNC/SCAR contest. The numbers like the Over, which I first logged at 65.5 and has now dropped to 64. I like this contest to play into the mid+ 70s, and that is allowing for some improvement in the play of both defenses last year. Both teams were very lopsided in the disparity between their offenses and defenses, with UNC's units ranking #43 and #89, and SCAR #28 and #91. SCAR played at a pretty average tempo, while UNC was very fast at 20.6 seconds per play. SCAR has a lot of new offensive players this year, but whoever is out there, they'll have to try and keep up with UNC, who returned almost everybody. I'm confident Spurrier and coaches will have something worked out to get their 30+ points. So yeah, both teams get 30+, the win is up in the air (I slightly favor SCAR), and the score goes Over by more than one touchdown, I'm predicting. This is a game that both teams are going to desperately want -- neither team will let up until the very end.

ADDING FOR 1/2 UNIT: UNC VS SCAR OVER 64

I'm off on a family vacation until September 1st. I'll post all the rest of the TSC MUGs on my website when I get back. I may have time to post all of my lines for week #1 tomorrow before I leave.

 

[cloverleaf]

Gosh, thanks for all the dedicated work and what you present to theRX Forum.

Confused Cruncher: Are you doing this for free? Thinking you are.

Dumbasses pay for picks...repeat...Losers pay for game picks..PERIOD!

 

[thecruncher]

Gosh, thanks for all the dedicated work and what you present to theRX Forum.

Confused Cruncher: Are you doing this for free? Thinking you are.

Dumbasses pay for picks...repeat...Losers pay for game picks..PERIOD!

I've been a "professional," let's call it, in the past -- but only for about 2 seasons compared to the probably around 10 I've posted freely online, mostly here at therx. I'm free this year as well, and will be offering everything I do in one centralized place at my free site, plus I'll continue to post weekly stuff like this here. I don't like charging for "picks." When I do charge, it's for my skill at line making and the "picks" are market plays that almost always pick up market value before kickoff, win or lose. I have no problem with charging or paying for football analysis and picks if the product indeed has value and is fairly priced. I'd prefer to make money in the industry purely as a line maker/writer/analyst/personality of some sort, but if I go back to charging something for my lines and plays early in the week when they still have value, I will also not be completely uncomfortable with that. What I do has value, as my lines beat the market by hundreds of points on just the recommended picks every year. There are a few honest people in the business. I think GoSooners and his crew have a good thing going at a more than fair price. I respect that.

 

[cloverleaf]

Please understand Chrunch I meant no disrespect to you. I probably shouldn't but I get uneasy when I think someone is promoting pay picks here at RX. You have been around for some time here at theRX and have represented yourself well. Appreciate your CFB posts.

I agree about Sooners and his crew. Good honest guys who offer plays the right way.

You know as well as I do the sleeze that goes on in this business.......

 

[GoSooners]

Thanks for the kind words about the TSE guys. We have been trying like hell to expand our site, but it's proven to be extremely hard to do. Plus advertising on the big sites to promote us costs an arm and two legs. That is if we can get their attention at all. So it's a tough business to get in, even if you are winning...BOL this year Cruncher. We are agreeing on many of these games. But I've been warning people that because we have so many marquee games in the first week, don't expect to see all of these teams running the same old systems they ran at the end of last season. Especially the teams that didn't have the most successful seasons. A good example of it is Notre Dame/Texas. Don't expect either of these teams to look like they did last year on offense. That goes for OU too. Aside from maybe Wisconsin, who seems to run the same boring system year after year, I think we'll see many surprises, and the fireworks should be flying in many of these games.

 

[cloverleaf]

GS, tried to PM you but you are not allowed to take RX messages.

I only say this here because you are one of the family and we think you are a straight shooter with your site. TSE needs a new format that promotes excitement. It does not promote interest and attention needed, especially with the young crowd. Getting that first look is difficult but getting the second look is what determines success. My crew likes your site mainly because we know you...but all say it's boring looking.

You want better results....revamp your format and add color, some attention getters and teasers that attracts people more than once. I'm a dumbass but after coaching HS I was successful in sales/marketing for a lot of years. Hope this is not out of line.

 

[GoSooners]

GS, tried to PM you but you are not allowed to take RX messages.

I only say this here because you are one of the family and we think you are a straight shooter with your site. TSE needs a new format that promotes excitement. It does not promote interest and attention needed, especially with the young crowd. Getting that first look is difficult but getting the second look is what determines success. My crew likes your site mainly because we know you...but all say it's boring looking.

You want better results....revamp your format and add color, some attention getters and teasers that attracts people more than once. I'm a dumbass but after coaching HS I was successful in sales/marketing for a lot of years. Hope this is not out of line.

Thanks for the advice Clover. Tim has a degree in just about everything capitalism. So he knows how to promote. But I agree with you about the looks of the site. I've always felt this way too. It's not easy doing a total makeover. But I think we will eventually have to to make some major changes to the site..

 

[groundhog11]

Thanks for the advice Clover. Tim has a degree in just about everything capitalism. So he knows how to promote. But I agree with you about the looks of the site. I've always felt this way too. It's not easy doing a total makeover. But I think we will eventually have to to make some major changes to the site..

Have you all thought about doing basketball,baseball?

 

[GoSooners]

Have you all thought about doing basketball,baseball?

We started college basketball this past year and had a fantastic first season. No thanks to me. I don't cap basketball, but we have a couple outstanding cappers working for us. I made some nice money just before march madness when one of our cappers hit 12 straight games. I just put some small change aside and started blindly following him. And I'll be doing the same this year.

 

[MoneyMiller]

Whats up cruncher wk 1 is finally here, had a few questions on where u think some lines will go this week.
Interested in playing a few money line dogs, wondering if you think any of these numbers will grow?

UNC+120
Mich+190
Az St+130
Byu+190

Thanks in advance bud, always appreciate your forecast.

 

[thecruncher]

Whats up cruncher wk 1 is finally here, had a few questions on where u think some lines will go this week.
Interested in playing a few money line dogs, wondering if you think any of these numbers will grow?

UNC+120
Mich+190
Az St+130
Byu+190

Thanks in advance bud, always appreciate your forecast.

With these numbers being up for so long now I don't think they'll move much before game time. I think there's a little value on UNC ML, a lot on MICH, a little on ASU, and none on BYU.

 

[thecruncher]

Alright, here are my week #1 lines. My side lines have picked up a median of 0.8 points versus current market lines, which is pretty solid. My total lines have been pretty close to the market overall, though. The biggest hit I took on those is on the Tulsa game, where I haven't altered the line to reflect the higher speed of play that Tulsa will be implementing this year.