The Sports Cruncher's 2009 Preseason Week #2

thecruncher · Aug 20, 2009

Howdy gang, back for another week of this crazy preseason stuff. They haven't even played a single game yet and I'm already in a bad way as I backed every team this week who ended up losing a quarterback to injury, lol. So tonight I have the Bengals at +4.5 and of course loathe my position there. I wouldn't take the Bengals at anything less than +7, though I just heard an ESPN analyst say that he didn't expect Brady to play as much as last week (the whole first half) but that the Bengals first team will go the entire half. I did nab the Under 37 before it moved down. There is a little value on the current Under 36, especially if Brady only goes 1/3 or the game or so.

I at least got a good number on the Eagles at -1 (-120) before it moved up, and the Over 36 which was available until today. At the current lines of Eagles -4 and a total of 37 I'd pass.

I'll be back with some write ups starting tomorrow. GL tonight and enjoy the games!

Green17 · Aug 20, 2009

Thanks Crunch.

thecruncher · Aug 21, 2009

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ontGrowAutofit/> </w:Compatibility> <w:BrowserLevel>MicrosoftInternetExplorer4</w:BrowserLevel> </w:WordDocument> </xml><![endif]--><style>  </style> Titans @ Cowboys
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New Cowboys Stadium will cover the players, not the spread<o></o>
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After the Raiders’ drubbing of the Cowboys’ defense last week it would appear that Cowboys’ coach Phillips forgot that he doesn’t have a defensive coordinator anymore and that the play calling duties are left to him. I can imagine the confused Cowboys’ defenders, backups no less, milling about on the field wondering what the plays and coverages were. If the Cowboys play like they did in <st1:city w:st="on"><st1

lace w:st="on">Oakland</st1

lace></st1:city> to start the regular season coach Phillips won’t have to worry about hiring a defensive coordinator, as he may very well be demoted to that position while someone else comes in to take the reins, lol. Lack of defensive coordinator + plus lack of defensive depth = lack of covering preseason games. The Raiders were one of my strongest plays last week, and I’m going back to the well one more time.
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Vince Young bounced back from a mostly poor Hall of Fame game outing to have a strong game versus the Bucs, going 9 for 14 for 131 yards and a touchdown. 3<sup>rd</sup> stringer Ramsey outplayed Collins. Old Kerry had a piss poor day, going 4 of 9 with two interceptions. 4<sup>th</sup> stringer Alex Mortensen was let go to sign Rocky Boiman and Tyson Smith, linebackers, to shore up some thinness brought about by injuries. The Titans’ will have a solid QB on the field at all times in this game. While it can be argued that any of the 3 quarterbacks on the Titans’ roster is capable of having the best outing of the bunch in any preseason game, the same can not be said for the Cowboys. Once Romo leaves the game, Kitna is a step down the QB ladder, though still a competent QB, but rookie McGee is a missed-step-leading-to-imminent-ground-impact level below Kitna. The Cowboys didn’t even dip into the bottom of their QB barrel with rookie #2 Rudy Carpenter. Too bad, Rudy, we’ll see you in NFLx week #4, I guess.
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While the Cowboys’ defense received a failing grade for their first “effort,” the Titans’ defense remains untested, really, as they’ve only faced two teams trotting out two new offenses for the first time. Even though the Titans first team defense kept the Bills and Bucs pretty much in check, it was to be expected that these two opponents would struggle some offensively. The Titans had a good run defense versus the Bills, but then a poor one versus the Bucs, while having a not great pass defense versus the Bills, but a good one versus the Bucs. Still, they gave up no offensive touchdowns to the Bills, and only two to the Bucs, one of which was a 43 yard scramble by Bucs’ QB Johnson in garbage time late sitting on a 15 point lead, and the other a TD pass by Leftwich after a Collins INT gave the Bucs a short 24 yards to paydirt.
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The Titans, then, will face their stiffest test defensively in their first true road game versus Romo and the Cowboys’ offense. Though only the regular season will truly tell how much the Titans will miss Albert Haynesworth’s presence at defensive tackle, the first half of this game will give some indication, as the Cowboys still have a couple of healthy backs and a few members of their starting offensive line ready to break in the new billion dollar stadium. A little extra pressure on the Cowboys for a preseason game than normal here? Yeah, I think so – perhaps a little.
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Still, the best case scenario for the Cowboys that I envision is for them to take a 7 point lead into the half, see the game tied by the 4<sup>th</sup> quarter, and then losing it when McGee fails to outduel Ramsey. I reckon there’s a chance that Phillips let’s Kitna play into the 4<sup>th</sup> quarter in this one if a victory is still in sight, but last year, in their 2<sup>nd</sup> NFLx game, he gave his 3<sup>rd</sup> string QB, Bartel, more series than either Romo or Johnson got in a 13-23 loss at Denver, so unless the hot seat that Phillips is perpetually purported to be sitting on is about to set his Fruit of the Looms on fire, I think we’ll see McGee or Carpenter for a good chunk of the second half. So, back to the best case scenario for the Cowboys – it still adds up to a loss.
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Yes, the Titans, coming off a couple of victories, might be a little flat in this game, and conversely, the Cowboys should take it up a notch looking for a little instant redemption, but I don’t think it will affect the outcome when it’s all said and done. I think the Titans will be excited to play in the new Cowboys Stadium as well, and the pressure isn’t on them in this match up at all. The Titans have been extremely confident in their camps and games so far this year, supposedly with a noticeably greater amount of energy than last year. The Cowboys, on the other hand, have had their lack of roster depth exposed but were largely unconcerned when asked about it in the days following the game. This lack of depth and apparent lack of a fire in the belly will cost them their preseason home opener this week.
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Final Score Prediction: Titans 20 – Cowboys 17

I also think the Rams are worth a play tonight. The Chiefs are a strong lean but a no play unless the line gets back on +3. All of the totals I think are pretty tight tonight, all of the lines are within a point of mine. GL.

thecruncher · Aug 22, 2009

Sometimes you can look to pin things on a lack of luck (The Rams and Chiefs both failing to score in the red zone late last night), but other times a pick just sucks -- like my Titans pick. Sorry about that one.

Here's the daily fade write up, lol.

Saints @ Texans

Saints always a live dog with their aerial assault

The Saints fit the profile of a team that is worth backing as a dog or small favorite, as they have a strong enough offense to keep any game close, but a weak enough defense to extend the same courtesy to their opponents. Last year they lost only 3 games by more than 3 points, but lost 5 games by 3 points or less.

Last week’s game versus the Bengals could have gone either way, but the Saints got some key turnovers and a missed Graham field goal to help them to a 10 point victory. The Bengals actually outgained the Saints in yards in that game, but couldn’t get anything done later in the game with Jordan Palmer in at QB. Drew Brees ended up playing more series than I thought he would, it being the first preseason game and with the death of his mother a week before the game. Drew had a pretty good outing, so there’s no reason to think that he won’t have another one here, now that the funeral services have been taken care of. Mark Brunell came in in relief and did just as well as Drew, leaving Joey Harrington just 3 pass attempts in this game.

Last year in the 2nd preseason game Coach Payton only gave his 3rd string QB the final series of the game, so expect to see a lot of Brees and Brunell this game. That’s a pretty solid “BB” gun barrage to wield in the 2nd week of preseason. The Saints’ run game last week was, as usual, fairly weak, but they were protecting a lead for a good part of the 2nd half, so it’s still way too early to gauge any improvements or backsliding in that department.

The Texans last week played in a bit of downpour in Kansas City, which fogs the idea of grading their performance in that game to a certain degree. Shaub came out sharp, going 7 for 7 before retiring to the bench. Grossman threw one incomplete pass, injured his hamstring, and is out for 4-5 weeks. Dan “Not Good Enough for Detroit” Orlovsky went 9 for 20 for 121 yards with no picks or touchdowns. He was playing with a lead the whole time, so even though it was raining pretty hard, more importantly it wasn’t windy, so his numbers aren’t that impressive. The rain and playing with a solid lead most assuredly did put a damper on the Texans’ run game, as they averaged a below average 3.6 yards per carry – which probably grades out as more an average performance given the variables.

The Texans saw very little of a struggling Matt Cassel in this game; a lackluster outing by Thigpen in spite of a TD on a short field; but Brodie Croyle did go 12 for 18 with a 145 yards. In more ideal conditions this week, there’s no reason to believe that the Saints’ “BB” gun barrage won’t be able to pop off plenty of first downs and scoring drives in this game. The Texans will be able to match the Saints in the first half, but not in the second half when it’s Brunnel versus Orlovsky.

While the Saints gave up a lot of passing yards to the Bengals, they were pretty stingy with the run defense, which will help versus the balanced Texans’ offense. If the run games play pretty evenly in this contest, and I think they will, then this game will indeed come down to the Saints’ superior experience on the QB depth chart in the 2nd half. Barring ever looming bad luck, I see no reason why the Saints shouldn’t stay close enough in the first half to win this game outright in the 2nd. The points are a gift, especially for a team with one of the best aerial assaults in the league that rarely loses by much.

Final Score Prediction: Saints 23 – Texans 17

McCrazy · Aug 22, 2009

Loving the Saints +3. BOL!

thecruncher · Aug 22, 2009

Raiders @ 49ers

The 49ers have no match up advantages to warrant being a 3 point preseason favorite versus the Raiders

The Raiders got the preseason started with a swashbuckling skewering of Dallas last week, looking far different than the usual Pirates of Penzance theatre they usually offer up during the regular season. It wasn’t a thorough Jolly Roger hoisting and Cowboy plank walking party, however. The Raiders still committed 14 penalties for 107 yards. Luckily for them the Cowboys had 11 penalties for just over a hundred yards as well. The Cowboys’ top 2 QBs had okay days, and probably would’ve put a few more points on the board if not for a Kitna interception in Raider territory. The Cowboys only put forth a nominal effort to ever get back in this game in the 2nd half, as they kept on with their run-centric offensive game plan for most of the game. They probably had a higher percentage of run plays in a losing effort of any team last week.

The 49ers and Broncos’ game last week was unimpressive in every single facet. Two average offenses had average days versus average to poor defenses. Both teams graded out as identically average in the four categories of pass offense/defense and run offense/defense. This was the only week #1 game where that occurred. I’m taking that as a bad sign for the 49ers. The Broncos’ defense was in near shambles by the end of last season, and is kind of a McDaniels and Nolan basement Frankenstein project to start the season. Yes, new Denver DC Nolan was the head coach in SF for almost half the season last year, but SF has a new OC in Raye after letting Martz go. Many questioned the hiring, but the run-centric old school Raye is trying to catch up with rest of the league by working on some Taser/Wildcat plays. The 49ers have a couple of players in Spurlock and Battle who were QBs in college, so it could be fun to watch when they finally bust it out of the shrinkwrap, which they didn’t do versus Denver.

Rookie Glen Coffee (is glen coffee kind of like shade grown coffee?) did have a pretty good day running the ball for the Niners, who as a team did run the ball a bit better than the Broncos, who lost their late to sign rookie QB Moreno to an injury during the game after only 3 carries, leaving the job to Hillis who once again found himself the running back by default in Denver. Still, this is Denver we’re talking about, so a slightly good running game for the Niners gets downgraded to average.

The Raiders, on the other hand, had an exceptional day running the ball versus a better Dallas run defense. Well, better in the regular season perhaps. 3 of their backs averaged over 5 yards a carry, and the main workhorse for this game, Russell, averaged 4 on 11 carries. So the edge in the running game goes to the Raiders.

Surprising stat of the game for the 49ers last week: they had only 4 incomplete passes for the entire game. 4? How is that possible? Well, they only attempted 18 passes, and half of those came from 3rd stringer Huard. I guess Coach Singletary wasn’t too interested in letting Hill and Smith battle for the QB starter’s job in this game. Boy, when they said new OC Raye was a run-first coordinator, they weren’t kidding! The 49ers ended up with a 77.7% completion ratio in this game with a fairly good 6.5 yards per pass attempt. The Raiders averaged 7.4 yards per pass with more than twice as many attempts. J. Russell will get more series in this game, though, so I can’t give the passing edge in this game to the Raiders. All the backup QBs for both teams played well last week versus sub-standard secondaries (the Cowboys sat several players), so I’m calling the passing game in this match up a draw, but with a slight edge to the 49ers who will have a better group of guys to throw to now that Schilens is out for the Raiders with a broken foot. Plus, you’d have to take Huard and his career numbers versus either Frye or Gradkowski later in this contest. Garcia is listed as “?” as of this writing, which means he’ll probably sit in the preseason.

The Broncos actually did rack up a lot of yards versus the 49ers defense, but were let down by Orton’s 3 interceptions. By all rights the Broncos should have scored an easy 20 points in this game and notched a victory. Raise your hand if you also missed the Over by a point and had the Broncos ML in this game…yeah, that was a painful missed 2 point try by the 49ers late. Fail.

Fortunately for Raiders’ backers in this game, the 49ers held on to win versus Denver, so they don’t qualify for any “last game a loss” preseason trends. Both teams should put in a spirited effort versus their bay area brethren in this battle for bragging rights, if nothing else. Both teams should have surrendered more points last week, but were helped by turnovers, while having positive days offensively as well. It shouldn’t take too much luck to put this game Over the total, as both teams have QBs with NFL experience 3 deep on the depth charts, which is far as into the depth as they should go in preweek #2. Maybe rookie Nate Davis of the 49ers will see a little bit of action in the 4th Q., but that’s it for both sides. Scoring could and should happen in any quarter of this game. The Raiders really aired it out last week, even with the lead, so you wouldn’t expect them to completely change tack and run the ball a ton this game. The 49ers did run the ball a lot last game, so we’ll see what kind of a ratio they have when this one is over – though it’s nigh unto impossible to think that they’ll run the ball on 65% of their offensive plays again.

Schilens presence will be missed, and indeed the total did drop a half point pretty much right after his broken foot bone was revealed, but I’m confident the points will come from both sides here regardless. As for the side, the 49ers don’t hold a remarkable edge over the Raiders in any of the match ups to warrant being a 3 point favorite in this game, even at home.

Final Score Prediction: Raiders 21 – 49ers 17

thecruncher · Aug 24, 2009

I've got a lean on the Jets tonight, but cannot make a play with their QBs versus Balty's D. Points should not come easily tonight, and at the 34 now available at 5Dimes I'm tempted to play the Under straight, but instead I'm going to do something I've done only a few times in my life -- tease an Under. The teaser play is Under 40 tonight with the Chargers +8.5 @ Atlanta. If you're going to tease a total, something I almost never recommend, by God at least tease a low total so you're getting better value on it.