I don't know about pros, but that scenario opens up an 11 point middle in the second half. I might bet a % of my original bet if I wanted to guarantee winning, or at worse breaking even. In the long run, these half time middles are hard to hit. Sometime if I have been watching the game closely, and get the feeling while even though losing the other team, N. Texas in this case, was very competitive, I will hedge.
wil.
wil.
I've never understood how second half lines work...I would assume that a team plays with pretty much the same strength regardless of the first half score, yet the 2nd half lines can vary dramatically depending on the score. Is it because certain players don't play in those situations? And why is it that the team that has shown to be worse than expected is usually the one who is expected to perform better in the 2nd half according to the line?
I can appreciate that the stats support the lines but what I don't get is why do teams perform better after doing badly in the first half? Does the leading team let up? Surely the coach of the leading team knows about the phenomenon, so he could warn the players and take steps so it doesn't happen.
I think if the game is within 5 or 6 points of the game line at half you will see a line akin to coming out around the game line (Boston -3 over Cleveland for the game. If Boston is up by 6 you will see Cleveland -3 2nd half). I have seen quite a few in that ballpark. If the dog is blowing out a fav the fav usually gets enough points to get back SU (like the Kings the other night were -10 2nd half down 10 at home to Phoenix I believe) and if the fav is blowing out the dog usually the line comes out close to the fav moneyline for the 2nd half. These are just observations and obviously there are more factors involved but these seem to be general criteria that I've seen.
sb
sb
I think you have to handicap the numbers *and* the game. Both are important, and you have to know how to balance the two.
For example, college basketball. Most teams have played 6-7 games, but they're mostly against cupcakes. If they shoot 58% against Navy and JMU, you need to determine how relevant that stat actually is. Just because they shoot 58% against Navy doesn't mean they're gonna shoot well against Duke! I don't think stats are very useful in college hoops until January/February.
Andrew Carnegie was considered the richest man in the world. Did he use formulas, stats, etc? Not really. He just had a feel for business. But if you take a business/finance class, you learn lots of formulas in order to determine good/bad investments. One of my teachers once said that these formulas simply try to quantify the decisions that Carnegie/Rockefeller/etc would make. But you still need the business-sense in order to apply these formulas to real-life situations!
As for halftime lines, look @ the Saints/Giants game. Saints were up 24-7 @ halftime. Given that the Giants were only an 8-point underdog for the game, wouldn't it follow that the Giants would decrease the 17-point deficit in the 2nd half? But if you were watching the game, you could probably guess that the 2nd half was gonna get UGLY. If you were watching the game, you would've observed that the Giants were simply over-matched. You can't cover Joe Horn with a 3rd-string CB!
So I guess you need to cap the math...you need to cap the game...and a little bit of luck never hurts!
For example, college basketball. Most teams have played 6-7 games, but they're mostly against cupcakes. If they shoot 58% against Navy and JMU, you need to determine how relevant that stat actually is. Just because they shoot 58% against Navy doesn't mean they're gonna shoot well against Duke! I don't think stats are very useful in college hoops until January/February.
Andrew Carnegie was considered the richest man in the world. Did he use formulas, stats, etc? Not really. He just had a feel for business. But if you take a business/finance class, you learn lots of formulas in order to determine good/bad investments. One of my teachers once said that these formulas simply try to quantify the decisions that Carnegie/Rockefeller/etc would make. But you still need the business-sense in order to apply these formulas to real-life situations!
As for halftime lines, look @ the Saints/Giants game. Saints were up 24-7 @ halftime. Given that the Giants were only an 8-point underdog for the game, wouldn't it follow that the Giants would decrease the 17-point deficit in the 2nd half? But if you were watching the game, you could probably guess that the 2nd half was gonna get UGLY. If you were watching the game, you would've observed that the Giants were simply over-matched. You can't cover Joe Horn with a 3rd-string CB!
So I guess you need to cap the math...you need to cap the game...and a little bit of luck never hurts!
It is a fallacy to say that "team A has a 58% chance of covering". Team A either has a 100% or a 0% chance of covering. The decision on which side to bet on is an either/or (or neither) decision. If you think Team A will cover then you bet on them. If you think Team B will cover you bet on them. All "the numbers" do is confuse you.
Every half time situation is different and thus is approached individually. In last night's game, it was noticeable in the first half that the relatively one dimensional game plan of North Texas lead them to fall behind 17-3 which would cause them to alter their attack which would not be to their strength. Thus, if a person had Memphis -3, they were sitting in a strong position with no need to hedge or middle.
Now, another example was in the Big 12 Championship. Even though Kansas State was clearly controlling the game at half, the half time line was Oklahoma -10.5. This was clearly a bad line and if a person had Kansas State +14 which was clearly a strong position, taking Kansas State +10.5 was very good value.
One must be careful. The numbers are very important but the fundamentals of the game can't be understated. I've seen a lot of people go under playing just the numbers as they get torn up by the vig over the long haul. Cap then check the number.
Now, another example was in the Big 12 Championship. Even though Kansas State was clearly controlling the game at half, the half time line was Oklahoma -10.5. This was clearly a bad line and if a person had Kansas State +14 which was clearly a strong position, taking Kansas State +10.5 was very good value.
One must be careful. The numbers are very important but the fundamentals of the game can't be understated. I've seen a lot of people go under playing just the numbers as they get torn up by the vig over the long haul. Cap then check the number.
