The problem with football contests

[CharlieMaxwell]

In 1982, the late Huey Mahl wrote an article titled “Gambling Contests: What’s Bad About ‘Em.” In the piece, Mahl harped that the contests were badly conceived because they did not mirror reality.

Read the rest of Arne Lang's latest column by going to the RX home page at www.therx.com

Charlie

 

[Fishhead]

ARNE-
Very enjoyable article to read.

Two personal side notes to your article.

1. It was my job to grade those contests at the Castaways in their last two years of existance when I worked at the Castaways. To me, I always felt the contestants underperformed slightly than what you would anticipate. One of the reasons I thought was because we shaded many of the favorites DOWN a half point, thus forcing more favorite plays than normal....at least this was the case the last two years.

2. Time to boast.......yours trully won the Barleys Casino Big Brew World Championship of NFL Handicapping Challenge a few years back. That year, selecting EVERY game on the card(including 8 playoff games), I managed to compile a 61.9% winning percentage against the spread. Believe I had only had two losing weeks the entire year as I recall and two or three .500 weeks.

 

[Fezzik]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by Fezzik:
Very good article, but I have to say I'm amazed at the respect people give the sports bettors out there.

21 is an easy game to win. The average sharp 12 year old could be taught to play a winning game. From my observations well over 99% of 21 players are longterm losing players. Sure, some good money management will help them lose less. It is still hopeless. They are terrible, and will lose provided their unit size isn't zero.

Sports is a more difficult game to master. Yet, people want to believe over 5% of players play with a positive expectation?

Are 21 players morons, and sports bettors have 10x more smart players? No way.

I don't know where Arne bets, but the players betting in line in front of me are seemingly ALL losers. I mean, ALL of them. Bad bets, bad numbers, bad decisions. Over and over and over. It is so rare that the guy in front of me making bets is making plays that made any sense (based on being the best lines available in town, etc).


Re: the 57% contest plays. I do strongly disagree that the lines people bet into were typically even better. With lines coming out Monday, I'm sure the Castaways had some real bonehead lines that people could bomb in midweek that weren't close to being available due to subsequent injuries, news, etc. <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

 

[Fishhead]

FEZZ or anybody-

How is the GN contest progressing?

Probably a tad to early to tell.

 

[Fezzik]

12 guys so far. 100 looks very possible.

 

[Fishhead]

FEZZ- I cannot imagine them not getting at least 100.

I am putting the over/under at 119.

If they do not get 100, what a GREAT play this will be for the people that will have entered since they have guaranteed a $500,000 prize pool.