The Perfect Storm

[Willie99]

Consumer and investor confidence has been being pounded for over one year now, carefully nurtured, fertilized and watered by politicians and their willing enablers.

The economy runs into a real hiccup, something none of the above farmers were forecasting either, a credit crunch.

There are real and underlying problems in the credit industry, but like everything else, they are being sensationalized. The lack of cash flow and a silent run to withdraw deposits forces a bank like Wachovia to be bought out. The lack of credit and the resulting cash flow problems force a company like AIG to require bailing out. Mark to market compounds the problems still.

Now the stock market is suffering from a full bore panic sale. Just as a run a bank deposits can put good banks out of business, the panic sale in the markets will bring about a weaker economy.

Because of the widespread fragile consumer and investor confidence we nurtured, what should be another hiccup to overcome becomes a potential economic disaster.

Keep selling assholes, and create the very thing you're fearful of.

 

[nepenthe]

Consumer and investor confidence has been being pounded for over one year now, carefully nurtured, fertilized and watered by politicians and their willing enablers.

The economy runs into a real hiccup, something none of the above farmers were forecasting either, a credit crunch.

There are real and underlying problems in the credit industry, but like everything else, they are being sensationalized. The lack of cash flow and a silent run to withdraw deposits forces a bank like Wachovia to be bought out. The lack of credit and the resulting cash flow problems force a company like AIG to require bailing out. Mark to market compounds the problems still.

Now the stock market is suffering from a full bore panic sale. Just as a run a bank deposits can put good banks out of business, the panic sale in the markets will bring about a weaker economy.

Because of the widespread fragile consumer and investor confidence we nurtured, what should be another hiccup to overcome becomes a potential economic disaster.

Keep selling assholes, and create the very thing you're fearful of.

You've got it backwards, Mr. Bush Boom. It's not lack of credit that is the problem. It was the persistent, artificial lowering of the interest rates and the creation of "easy credit" that has been the problem. Everyone, from big institutions to everyday consumers, has been living on credit - the ability to spend money they don't have on things they can't afford. And now, the jig is almost up and a paradigm shift is occurring, where everything must be recalibrated and reexamined. On so many levels, the US economy has been a pack of cards for decades, but easy credit hid this from view.

 

[tiznow]

bush boom biatches

just wait till this stock market carnage hits the street

in about 3 months or so things will start to get really interesting

 

[cussin'it]

Consumer and investor confidence has been being pounded for over one year now, carefully nurtured, fertilized and watered by politicians and their willing enablers.

The economy runs into a real hiccup, something none of the above farmers were forecasting either, a credit crunch.

There are real and underlying problems in the credit industry, but like everything else, they are being sensationalized. The lack of cash flow and a silent run to withdraw deposits forces a bank like Wachovia to be bought out. The lack of credit and the resulting cash flow problems force a company like AIG to require bailing out. Mark to market compounds the problems still.

Now the stock market is suffering from a full bore panic sale. Just as a run a bank deposits can put good banks out of business, the panic sale in the markets will bring about a weaker economy.

Because of the widespread fragile consumer and investor confidence we nurtured, what should be another hiccup to overcome becomes a potential economic disaster.

Keep selling assholes, and create the very thing you're fearful of.

I'm kinda suprised at you Willis. Who wants to be the last mofo standing on the train before it derails?

Part of the problem is widespread institutional selling. Not the average Joe. Fuck I want to lock in my gains and limit my losses just like anyone.

Problem is and will continue to be we just don't know the extent of the toxic garbage. Disclosure by companies who you ask us to fucking trust is incomplete. No wonder banks don't trust each other and the credit market is frozen. Tomorrow they'll find more toxic shit on the books. How do you valuate that shit? I have no idea, nor does the gov'y on how to price this shit.

Unknown, distrust, toxic shit that hasn't been fully disclosed, Dumbya and the Treasury taking their sweet fucking time to take positive action, and yahoo fucking investment salespeople leading their customers into the abyss, AND YOU WANT ME TO HOLD TO MY POSITIONS???

Don't make me vomit, not today. I luv ya, but I don't think you are being realistic at all bro.

 

[BASEHEAD]

I'm kinda suprised at you Willis. Who wants to be the last mofo standing on the train before it derails?

Part of the problem is widespread institutional selling. Not the average Joe. Fuck I want to lock in my gains and limit my losses just like anyone.

Problem is and will continue to be we just don't know the extent of the toxic garbage. Disclosure by companies who you ask us to fucking trust is incomplete. No wonder banks don't trust each other and the credit market is frozen. Tomorrow they'll find more toxic shit on the books. How do you valuate that shit? I have no idea, nor does the gov'y on how to price this shit.

Unknown, distrust, toxic shit that hasn't been fully disclosed, Dumbya and the Treasury taking their sweet fucking time to take positive action, and yahoo fucking investment salespeople leading their customers into the abyss, AND YOU WANT ME TO HOLD TO MY POSITIONS???

Don't make me vomit, not today. I luv ya, but I don't think you are being realistic at all bro.

Liquidating positions to lock in profit is one thing but alot of whats going on now is folks locking in losses.Theres a great case to be made for riding out the storm if retirement isnt an immediate issue for you or the funds arent a necessity to present financial wellbeing.

 

[cincy_]

Useless advice ... what is "locking in losses" anyways????

I sold EVERYTHING on Sept 17th (after Lehman went down) ...

Had I not, I would have lost 34% of the value.

Today, I can buy back what I had (at a 34% discount) because I cashed out.

In other words, if I had 100 shares of an index, today I can buy back 152 shares of the same index.

 

[eek.]

Has anyone got change of a zog?

 

[tiznow]

Useless advice ... what is "locking in losses" anyways????

I sold EVERYTHING on Sept 17th (after Lehman went down) ...

Had I not, I would have lost 34% of the value.

Today, I can buy back what I had (at a 34% discount) because I cashed out.

In other words, if I had 100 shares of an index, today I can buy back 152 shares of the same index.

glad to hear ope:

and we will bounce soon but don't let that fool you

we going much lower

corporate profit deflation will hit wall street in 2009

the markets predict the future they care not about the past

plus i'm guessing the markets will have a hyper rally at the worst of the worst corporate results

like during the 30s....1932 to 1933 markets went up 134% while earnings that came out during that time were the worst of the worst

 

[cincy_]

and we will bounce soon but don't let that fool you

we going much lower

CASH IS KING ... I was thinking I would wait for an 8,000 DJI but now I am waiting for a 7,500 DJI to buy back what I had ... at 50% off too.

Let the shorters get to work for a week and then we'll have some REAL prices.

 

[tiznow]

shorters don't make markets fall

sellers do

shorts provide a bottom and liquidity for the markets as they buy when everybody is selling locking in profits

many countries have flat out banned shorting during times like this

everyone of them crashes anyway

 

[cincy_]

shorters don't make markets fall

sellers do

shorts provide a bottom and liquidity for the markets as they buy when everybody is selling locking in profits

many countries have flat out banned shorting during times like this

everyone of them crashes anyway

In the market, you're right ... but in the rumor mill, they do drive down prices ... that being said, they drive down prices of shit that should have prices driven down.

... also, the rumor of an INTENT to short will have investors at least do a double take and do a double check before blindly following shitty advice.

 

[tiznow]

whatever

and maybe they do somewhat

but corporations and banks have been lieing to us for a long time with alot of funny accounting games

so i say its all fair game

 

[cincy_]

whatever

and maybe they do somewhat

but corporations and banks have been lieing to us for a long time with alot of funny accounting games

so i say its all fair game

It's not only FAIR ... it's NECESSARY.

If someone tells me all is rosy ... I want someone to tell me if it stinks. Let me hear BOTH sides of the argument and then let me make a decision.

 

[BASEHEAD]

Useless advice ... what is "locking in losses" anyways????

I sold EVERYTHING on Sept 17th (after Lehman went down) ...

Had I not, I would have lost 34% of the value.

Today, I can buy back what I had (at a 34% discount) because I cashed out.

In other words, if I had 100 shares of an index, today I can buy back 152 shares of the same index.

Why so bitter Cincy? Crisis got you down?Of course what I posted is very general and specifics weigh heavily on any detailed argument but once you cash out your loss is realized.

Perhaps for someone as savvy as yourself who knows precisely before hand when and how much the markets will rise and fall but jumping in and out based on panic is a horrible strategy,especially for long term players.If you need the cash-take it.Great.....but if youve just realized a net loss thats locked in until you make your subsequent reinvestment (assuming it actually comes) and the bounce you need to get back what youve lost.This,like riding it out, also takes discipline and patience,neither of which you possess now so would you employ them later.Unless youre holding some real dogs dumping a whole portfolio ("everything") seems a bit irrational.Locking in losers to offset realized gains at tax time is prudent but just to run for the door at cutrate prices either indicates horrible investments,being strapped for cash or rabid paranoia.

Like I said if you can make money selling low great but selling low, at a loss to buy lower is risky business.

 

[cincy_]

Why so bitter Cincy? This,like riding it out, also takes discipline and patience,neither of which you possess now so would you employ them later.

If it took patience to make money, Wall St execs would be doing yoga all fucking day.

As it is now, Wall St. needs people like you to hold their shit stock. GM is $4 and change ... and I sold mine at $13 on September 19th. Now I can buy 3 shares of GM for every share I sold ...

Patience is bending over so I can get fuckt, Basehead ... Patience is acknowledging that the people who run that company know more than me ... you can do that if you wish, I won't.

 

[Buster]

hey cincy...never played with stocks,but what and when should i buy?i did tell my friend to buy wachovia the other day at 1.84 and he made good money on that...i wished i had bought some too,but did not...so if you don't mind clue me in on what would be my best course...not interested in making quick buck...am looking long term,10 to 15 years...thanks

 

[tiznow]

If it took patience to make money, Wall St execs would be doing yoga all fucking day.

As it is now, Wall St. needs people like you to hold their shit stock. GM is $4 and change ... and I sold mine at $13 on September 19th. Now I can buy 3 shares of GM for every share I sold ...

Patience is bending over so I can get fuckt, Basehead ... Patience is acknowledging that the people who run that company know more than me ... you can do that if you wish, I won't.

guessing GM will have to be nationalized eventually

stock will go to 0

don't listen to basey he's a permabull that argued with me everything was fine near the market top on the early pages of sell, sell, sell

they just can't seem to understand how fucked up shit

the there can never be another great depression crowd is comical....this isn't like any blip we've seen in the past....and its one that's gonna take a long time to dig ourselves out from

today i bought RAI by the way cash cow....people still gonna smoke.....7.4% divy.....p/e of 8 although their earnings will go down like everybody else.....etc.....that said i'm not holding it long term although i'll probably let the profits (expected lol) ride long term....and gobble up more shares along the way with a nice big divy

 

[tiznow]

also if you are gonna buy anything now i suggest companies like RAI that have huge cash flows, low P/E, a high dividend, and low amount of debt

that's very hard to find right now though

many companies up to their eyeballs in debt

 

[eek.]

I have 1 share investment now, no debt, regular divis and sells sexual tittilation.

Far safer than a financial corporation. :bunnies:

 

[cincy_]

hey cincy...never played with stocks,but what and when should i buy?i did tell my friend to buy wachovia the other day at 1.84 and he made good money on that...i wished i had bought some too,but did not...so if you don't mind clue me in on what would be my best course...not interested in making quick buck...am looking long term,10 to 15 years...thanks

Right now ... I took my money, rolled it in a condom and hid it up my poodle's ass ... I also sent some to BetJM and played the Dodgers and the over ...

If you're thinking long term, think commodities ... like industrial metals ... there isn't enough metal for everyone in this world that wants it, and if the global economy picks up, commodities will pick up too.

I bought Fidelity Energy and made 40% for a few years ... and I have lost 50% of the value in the past year ... so like my poodle, I got back what I put in.