~The New Orleans Saints Host The Atlanta Falcons~

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This game will come down to being able to generate an efficient pass rush and establishing run game early for Falcons. Stats From Different Sources I found > On offense, the Falcons dominate all statistics but one: turnover margin. Atlanta the #1 passing game in the NFL through two weeks. Looking at both teams objectively on defense, the two teams are pretty even. Falcons & Saints are among the worst in yards per carry leaders NFL from stats I found from many different Sources. J.J.s power rating + 1 1/2 Falcons. We are looking at around 48 or 49 points in this match-up[ shoot up game].
Smithy Ryann has this game from different prospective on his rating from different data he found from different sources . He found that the underdog is 10-3 ATS, which includes five straight winners. Points Per Game> Falcons 28.0 (T-6th), Saints 21.5 (14th). Injuries to LT Terron Armstead and WR Willie Snead will not make difference in this match-up. He sees the game - 3 Saints for home team advantage and + 2 overall for by the numbers[ game within 2 points favoring the Falcons and +3 points for home team advantage points total of + 5 Falcons.
Golden Nugget & Treasure Island & South Point & Caesars/ Harrah's/Rio & Coasts Casino [Vegas] have this game at - 2 1/2 and Peppermill& Wynn at -3. Its nice to shop around for point spreads to your advantage. A 1/2 point is a 1/2 point in this match-up. I don't have a clue about off shore lines. We bet the game at +3 Falcons. Got down on the opener[ this line could have moved after we made bet after last nights late game, before I posted this thread] [No money line bet on this one} to have little fun watching game with a little jingle in our pockets for cocktails//Always tip big for cocktail waitress LOL LOL !!!! Telling you guys we did not put to munch[Money on this game]// A joint Venture//LOL LOL !!!!
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PS.... Lets see how good we are worth in the mark for winner.
 

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Always enjoy your insights.I might do teaser dog to the ^^.Good luck
 

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Harry did you know
Falcons ... 1-15 in road games on Monday Night Football including 12 straight losses - Longest streak in history of MNF
 

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Harry did you know
Falcons ... 1-15 in road games on Monday Night Football including 12 straight losses - Longest streak in history of MNF

Guess that explains all the love for New Orleans. I'm still not convinced. I think ATL is the better team no?
 

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Harry thanks for the info. Would it be possible for you to post J.J's power ratings for next weeks games?
 
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Harry thanks for the info. Would it be possible for you to post J.J's power ratings for next weeks games?
[FONT=arial, helvetica]Theory about Sports ratings systems use a variety of methods for rating teams, but the most prevalent method is called a power rating. The power rating of a team is a calculation of the team’s strength relative to other teams in the same league or division. The basic idea is to maximize the amount of transitive relations in a given data set due to game outcomes. For example, if A defeats B and B defeats C, then one can safely say that A>B>C.Jeff Sagarin’s systems, the NY Times system, and the Dunkel Index, are some good examples. I personal use J.J. Bacsus power rating systems. J.J. Bacsus power rating is for us as a tool for handicapping games to bet on. Some of these rating that I just mentioned are complicated. Way to complicated for average better to understand'' no disrespect to you my friend" Also it takes me many hrs., to take his rating that is on 2 sheets of paper hand written to put a format on this forum. Our time is best spent in handicapping games that we bet on as a group. I will always give anyone on this forum our free picks we bet on!!! and you take it to the bank. [/FONT]
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[FONT=arial, helvetica]Rating systems can not ignore “throw-away” games. These are games where teams have already earned a post-season bid and have secured their playoff seeding before the end of the regular season, and want to rest/protect their starters by benching them for those remaining regular season games. This usually results in unpredictable outcomes, but without a mechanism to ignore such games (which runs counter to the goals of such systems), this will unintentionally skew the outcomes of rating systems. [/FONT]
 

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