The Merits of Buying Points?

[chonce]

I am sure many of us by off a 2.5 to a 3 (which is expensive). Over the course of a season or more, does the amount of times this half point is a factor really make up for the lost juice over time? I would have to think it does not, but wow, does getting 2.5 pts feel nerve-wracking.

Any studies done on this?

 

[wizard1183]

I forget the number, but the points don't matter in 82-83% of the time? In my opinion it's better safe than sorry. It is expensive, but it also can save you from losing it lands on 3 getting the push. I'd rather pay and push than lose by a 1/2 pt lol

 

[cigar]

i'd worry more about getting the best line and never buy ......unless you listen to best in the business guys like Lang

 

[wizard1183]

i'd worry more about getting the best line and never buy ......unless you listen to best in the business guys like Lang

In my case I'm small time and my local doesn't exactly have the best lines, but getting paid is sometimes difficult shopping for the best. Money paid in advance to my bookie and minimum bets are a bit expensive otherwise I wouldn't worry about it. 5D is a good book. I think next yr I'll go back to them as its now easier to get money back without all the fees and crap. Then a 1/2 pt would be no sweat.

 

[cigar]

In my case I'm small time and my local doesn't exactly have the best lines, but getting paid is sometimes difficult shopping for the best. Money paid in advance to my bookie and minimum bets are a bit expensive otherwise I wouldn't worry about it. 5D is a good book. I think next yr I'll go back to them as its now easier to get money back without all the fees and crap. Then a 1/2 pt would be no sweat.

I'd embrace you local and only bet the games that he gives you value on. Given a point or a point and a half in the NFL you can whip him with it. One local here already says he makes both sides the favorite in a pick em type game. So look for advantages on games with a little taller line. If you stay disciplined with your 5d funding bankroll, that local should have you offshore in no time.

 

[wizard1183]

Well most of the lines are in conjunction with 5D however I may pay a little more for the line. Thing is you can only buy up. Never down like 5D. And also no live. Once a game starts, you only get to bet the 2H. Also if I wanted to play a parlay or teaser, I'd have to spend a full unit (my units, not necessarily others) and that's not always a good thing. If I could bet say 1/2 a unit on a parlay, that would be great but its not in my favor at the moment. Last 2 yrs I've lost out by getting greedy. Otherwise I was 1 or 2 out of 250 players killing him. Most of his clients lose significantly. But I'm in that category so I'm disciplining myself this yr and hopefully in a few yrs i can get decent with him and he can share some info.

 

[cigar]

check his 2nd halves against pinnacle. He's off, bet it. That'll give you enough action to stay disciplined.

 

[3pointdog]

I only buy on/off of 3 & 7 generally... I believe I come out ahead over all, but the other poster was right, points only matter in about 15-17% of games... But it has saved me many more times than not... Just my .02

 

[varkeyboy]

I only buy on/off of 3 & 7 generally... I believe I come out ahead over all, but the other poster was right, points only matter in about 15-17% of games... But it has saved me many more times than not... Just my .02

+1

 

[ERockMoney]

It's not worth it at the prices offered by the books. I believe I have a study, which is a few years old, but I'm fairly certain there hasn't been any changes on this front forever.

 

[Buckeyefan80]

I used to always buy the hook regardless of the number I got and after the season I wanted to know if it was worth it so I went back through my spreadsheet of plays and calculated it up. Needless to say it was definitely not worth it. That doesn't mean sometimes it can save your ass but the things that are needed to be considered are 1) do you really think it will come into play? As someone stated points only matter in about 15-17% of games. And how many of those games does the hook really come into play? 2) is it worth it to you? If it's a win, who cares. If it's a loss of course it would. As much as I was debating it, I didn't buy the hook on KC Sunday and instead of a push I lost. Key numbers can be good to buy the hook but it seems (I never tracked this) the price is not worth it because you will be paying more than .10 for those key number hooks. Of course it will make you feel better to have that number until it doesn't matter. So you need to ask yourself, is it really worth the price? If you think it is, buy it. If you don't then don't. Over time the chances of it actually saving you money is minute unless you are just that good at picking and choosing which game you should buy the 1/2 point. If that is the case, please do share which games we should buy the hook, lol. Good luck to you and all this betting season!

 

[dd_1_pl_4_u_]

I am sure many of us by off a 2.5 to a 3 (which is expensive). Over the course of a season or more, does the amount of times this half point is a factor really make up for the lost juice over time? I would have to think it does not, but wow, does getting 2.5 pts feel nerve-wracking.

Any studies done on this?

When taking + 2.5 or less I think the plus odds on the m/l is the way to go.
Have no documentation wondering if anyone has documentation?

 

[wizard1183]

When taking + 2.5 or less I think the plus odds on the m/l is the way to go.
Have no documentation wondering if anyone has documentation?

These are the numbers I found when a Dog won ATS when the line was less than 3. You can actually see EVERY game (score) on the website I listed if you entered each season from 1989 until now I believe. Now Im not a guru at this so to find the level of when points mattered? I dont know, but Im willing to bet the % is quite small. Maybe roll tide can chime in? Or a query guru.

http://killersports.com/nfl/query?sdql=D+and+line<3+and+WATS&submit=++S+D+Q+L+!++

SU:	580-638-1 (-0.77, 47.6%)
ATS:	619-586-14 (1.09, 51.4%)

 

[Ekkyjaja]

1-2.5 = ML all day. Long term profit

 

[BlueRiot]

The NFL is difficult to predict, and vegas is even tougher to beat. When your laying juice more than a dime consistently, it becomes EVEN tougher to beat. Its easy to think that just a little bit more money will make my pick a little safer, or more of a chance to win, but rarely does it come into play, and the more juice you lay, the quicker your bankroll will bleed. As for key numbers 3 and especially 7, became a little less key last year with the extra points becoming a little harder. More unpredictability in an already difficult sport.
Along with the financial side of buying side of points, is the mental. If you enter your bet understanding that its hard to win a game, that there are many things that happen in a game that could change the score this way or that, and are COMFORTABLE with losing, the feeling of “if I had only bought a half a point I would have won/pushed!”,,, does not come into play.
That feeling of wanting to protect your investment, comes from a fear of losing. How will you feel if you lost your play when you could have saved it by spending just a little more money? The old phrase, “scared money don’t make money.” Well from my perspective, the fear is all over the place and its just another head game to overcome. From needing to buy points to avoid a mental and financial loss, to playing a game because if you didn’t play it, and it hits, it feels like a mental loss. Forget it, losing happens, if you lost by a half a point, you could have easily lost by 7.5 points somewhere throughout the game. My point is, trust your play, let go of emotions, bet comfortably, know that anything can happen, and don’t buy points out of that fear, because the juice is too hard to overcome in the long run. Where will the point buying stop, if you commit to buying them here and there. That adds another level of difficulty when your fighting with yourself when to and when not to buy points, then watching the result and shaking your head at yourself, saying why did you buy points there, or why didn’t you buy another point there! For me its better to forget it all. Plus, its not hard to find books with other lines, and also grab them early in the week.

 

[DertyD]

Well said Blue Riot. I think addressing the emotional side of this is valid. Furthermore I'd like to add the mathematics behind doing it. I don't think it makes mathematical sense. I think everybody will lose in the long run buying points. In the short run anything may happen but it's not a good practice in general. It similar to buying insurance on a blackjack table. Long term it's just not a good idea.

 

[Soriano12]

When looking at key numbers and records over the last decade or two, I think you should take those past results with a grain of salt though: The NFL moving back the PAT has significantly altered the conversion percentage for the PAT, so the steep price for buying from -3 to -2.5 or +2.5 towards 3.0 seems even less desirable nowadays.

 

[Bruins4Life]

If you feel the need to buy points, why are you betting THAT game?
You spend time handicapping to find your best plays, not to find plays that you feel a need to buy points.