THE MASTERS....odds,info,discussion

Search

Nirvana Shill
Joined
Oct 20, 2001
Messages
28,457
Tokens
Koepka a great bet at these odds . He is healthy .

I bought some +8550 before he won the LIV event .
Now he’s down to +4200 . I still think that’s a great bet
I'm kicking myself not grabbing similar odds on Koepka when in Vegas last month. I do have a 50/1 ticket in hand
 

Nothing Can Stop What is Coming!!!
Joined
Jan 4, 2005
Messages
18,893
Tokens
Free contest if anyone is intersted,

Make up a Fantasy Team for me to play .....6 players , 50k salary.....If I play it Ill cut you in for 33 percent of any top 35 finish, you can win $50 to $1000 dollars(via paypal) with no risk



 

Nothing Can Stop What is Coming!!!
Joined
Jan 4, 2005
Messages
18,893
Tokens
Who do you think the player with highest odds that will make the cut can/will be? I like Kevin Na
The current Masters cut rules are that the Top 50 players and tied after 36 holes will play the weekend


ODDS TO WIN 2023 MASTERS

Scottie Scheffler +700
Rory McIlroy +700
Jon Rahm +900
Jordan Spieth +1600
Justin Thomas +2000
Patrick Cantlay +2000
Cameron Smith +2200
Collin Morikawa +2500
Xander Schauffele +2500
Jason Day +2500 10
Dustin Johnson +2500
Tony Finau +2500
Cameron Young +2800
Max Homa +3000
Brooks Koepka +3300
Will Zalatoris +3500
Viktor Hovland +3500
Sung-Jae Im +3500
Sam Burns +4000
Hideki Matsuyama +4000 20
Matthew Fitzpatrick +4500
Corey Conners +4500
Tyrrell Hatton +5000
Shane Lowry +5500
Tommy Fleetwood +5500
Justin Rose +6000
Min Woo Lee +6000
Joaquin Niemann +6600
Patrick Reed +6600
Tiger Woods +7500 30
Tom Kim +8000
Adam Scott +8000
Si Woo Kim +9000
Louis Oosthuizen +9000
Bryson DeChambeau +10000
Keegan Bradley +11000
Sahith Theegala +11000
Abraham Ancer +11000
Tom Hoge +11000
Keith Mitchell +11000 40
Mito Pereira +12500
Sergio Garcia +12500
Danny Willett +12500
Seamus Power +14000
Russell Henley +15000
Thomas Pieters +15000
Chris Kirk +15000
Talor Gooch +15000
Billy Horschel +16000
Brian Harman +17500 50
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ryan Fox +17500
Bubba Watson +20000
Gary Woodland +20000
Jason Kokrak +20000
Taylor Moore +20000
J.T. Poston +20000
Alex Noren +20000
Phil Mickelson +20000
Harold Varner III +20000
Francesco Molinari +22500 60
Harris English +25000
Mackenzie Hughes +25000
Cameron Champ +25000
Charl Schwartzel +25000
Kevin Na +25000
Adam Svensson +25000
Adrian Meronk +30000
Kyoung-Hoon Lee +30000
Sepp Straka +30000
Kevin Kisner +35000 70
Scott Stallings +35000
Zach Johnson +50000
Kazuki Higa +50000
Gordon Sargent +75000
Harrison Crowe +100000
Bernhard Langer +100000
Fred Couples +100000
Kurt Kitayama +125000
Sam Bennett +150000
Aldrich Potgieter +200000
Matthew McClean +200000
Mike Weir +200000
Ben Carr +250000
Mateo Fernandez de Oliveira +250000
Larry Mize +250000
Vijay Singh +250000
Jose Maria Olazabal +250000
Sandy Lyle +250000
 

Member
Handicapper
Joined
Oct 31, 2004
Messages
44,283
Tokens
Cameron champ for that
 

Nothing Can Stop What is Coming!!!
Joined
Jan 4, 2005
Messages
18,893
Tokens
some bets to consider

Masters Bets to Target​

Jon Rahm (Golf Betting Odds at FanDuel Sportsbook: +950) - Rahm is the lone name among the top three (i.e. Rahm, Scottie Scheffler, and Rory McIlroy) showing some outright win value, according to my win simulations for the Masters, so I have to take note. Rahm is only a few months removed from feeling absolutely unfadeable, and we shouldn't forget that. He has finished T27, 4th, T9, T7, T5, and T27 at Augusta in his career, and his irons can still get as hot as anyone's: he was fourth in approach strokes gained per round at THE PLAYERS before withdrawing.

Patrick Cantlay (+1900) - Cantlay has the complete game required to solve Augusta National even though his results here are just middling: T47, cut, T9, T17, cut, T39. Across the past two years (for which datagolf has ShotLink data), Cantlay has putted poorly on these greens. He's getting more and more reps at the course, and the form entering includes three top-10s in his past four starts.


Tony Finau (+2400) - Finau was the first bet I made this week. My model thinks he should be +1900. Although he has five straight events outside the top 10, he has 10 straight top-25 finishes, thanks to incredible iron play. The putter has trended up over the long term for Finau, too. As long as he can figure out how to chip well enough, he's a real threat to break through. Finau has finished T10, T5, T38, T10, and T35 at Augusta in his career.

Xander Schauffele (+2500) - Xander missed the cut a year ago here but has a T50, T2, T17, and T3 otherwise. Schauffele is dialed right now with the irons and putter, which always helps when heading a major setup. A lack of high-end stroke play finishes since mid-February (T33, T39, T19) have his odds longer than they should be.

Viktor Hovland (+3700) - Hovland is always a threat to lead any field in strokes gained: tee to green, primarily because he's just that good of a ball-striker. He was fifth in approach at THE PLAYERS and is 17th over the past 50 rounds, according to datagolf. He was T32 in his 2019 Augusta debut to finish as the low amateur, and he has been T21 and T27 with good putting results since then. His pure upside absolutely includes a green jacket.

Masters Top-10s and Top-20s to Target​

Keegan Bradley (Top 10: +900 | Top 20: +310) - Keegan's got the irons to finish well at Augusta, and he's also a balanced driver. In total, he ranks 24th in the field in strokes gained from ball-striking over the past 50 rounds, according to datagolf. Though Bradley's best finish at Augusta is T22 in 2015, we're getting a new, rejuvenated version of Bradley, whose putting is a plus again.

Joaquin Niemann (Top 10: +650 | Top 20: +210) - Though it's hard to quantify things for the LIV Tour golfers, Niemann played really well in the 2022 tournaments and was top-10 at both Asian Tour events in February. Some LIV golfers are still valued as if they're just a tick behind their PGA Tour form, and some we can assume are unlikely to contend. Niemann is in the sweet spot where he is undervalued for what the current form likely is.

Mito Pereira (Top 10: +650 | Top 20: +250) - Another LIV golfer who fits that mold is Mito Pereira. Mito has five top-16s and three top-10s in five events in 2023, including consecutive 6th-place finishes at the past two LIV events since late March. Again, we have to do a lot of assuming with their data, yet these are good value numbers for Pereira and Niemann, specifically.

Masters Group Bets and Prop Bets to Target​

Scottie Scheffler Top Former Winner (+155) - The list of former winners in the field is 13, and none of them are in the same tier as Scheffler right now. Jordan Spieth is dangerous at Augusta, and if Dustin Johnson is in form, he's a threat, too. But Hideki Matsuyama, Tiger Woods, Patrick Reed, and Adam Scott have either legitimate questions about health and/or form. And those at longer odds have those questions in spades.

As for Scheffler, he's the outright betting favorite for the entire event, and we're sort of getting him at +155 over what we can view as more of a five-man group with extra names at the bottom. Value is value, and my model sees it here.

Rory McIlroy Top Great Britain/Ireland Player (+120) - This is a very fair number for McIlroy, who is grouped up with some overvalued options.

The biggest fear I have is with Justin Rose (+650). But Matt Fitzpatrick seems to be dealing with an injury still, Tyrrell Hatton is a great fit but doesn't like the course, and after that, we have some names unlikely to contend here with Rory.

My model thinks Rory should be +105 here.

Viktor Hovland to win Group E (+200) - Group E comprises Hovland, Sam Burns, Hideki Matsuyama, and Brooks Koepka. I like Hovland well enough on his own despite his iffy chipping, yet there are also reasons we can be lower on his groupmates here, too.

Burns won the WGC-Match Play and was solo sixth at the Valspar Championship. But his tee-to-green game is largely neutral, and he's doing a ton of damage with the putter.

Matsuyama's irons are still good, but his overall tee-to-green game is not quite what it has been at his peak, and the putter isn't making up for it. Combined with enough health concerns, we can bump down Matsuyama.

Koepka is a wild card here. He won the most recent LIV Golf event in Orlando this past week, and we know what he is capable of in majors -- or what he used to be capable of, at least.

But as for Hovland, he's the best golfer of the quartet over the past 50 rounds and the past year, according to datagolf, and my model thinks he should be around +185.
 

Nothing Can Stop What is Coming!!!
Joined
Jan 4, 2005
Messages
18,893
Tokens
More picks and prop bets from the "experts"

\

2023 The Masters Best Bets: Gold Picks​


Mayo: Rose/Ancer/Lowry/Conner/SW Kim to Make the Cut Parlay +295
Feinberg: Xander Schauffele Top 20 -115
Pizzola: Xander Schauffele over DJ/Cam Smith +140
Cam: Xander + Spieth Top 20 +204


2023 The Masters Best Bets: Silver Picks​


Mayo: Phil Mickelson to MISS the cut +120
Feinberg: Harman Top Lefty +160
Pizzola: Cantlay Top USA +1100
Cam: Winner is American -135


2023 The Masters Best Bets: Bronze Picks​


Mayo: Spieth First Round Leader +2500
Feinberg: Patrick Reed Top LIV TOUR Player +1000
Pizzola: Fitzpatrick Group Winner +350
Cam: Niemann Top South Ameican -120
 
Joined
Oct 31, 2021
Messages
19
Tokens
Who do you think the player with highest odds that will make the cut can/will be? I like Kevin Na
The current Masters cut rules are that the Top 50 players and tied after 36 holes will play the weekend


ODDS TO WIN 2023 MASTERS

Scottie Scheffler +700
Rory McIlroy +700
Jon Rahm +900
Jordan Spieth +1600
Justin Thomas +2000
Patrick Cantlay +2000
Cameron Smith +2200
Collin Morikawa +2500
Xander Schauffele +2500
Jason Day +2500 10
Dustin Johnson +2500
Tony Finau +2500
Cameron Young +2800
Max Homa +3000
Brooks Koepka +3300
Will Zalatoris +3500
Viktor Hovland +3500
Sung-Jae Im +3500
Sam Burns +4000
Hideki Matsuyama +4000 20
Matthew Fitzpatrick +4500
Corey Conners +4500
Tyrrell Hatton +5000
Shane Lowry +5500
Tommy Fleetwood +5500
Justin Rose +6000
Min Woo Lee +6000
Joaquin Niemann +6600
Patrick Reed +6600
Tiger Woods +7500 30
Tom Kim +8000
Adam Scott +8000
Si Woo Kim +9000
Louis Oosthuizen +9000
Bryson DeChambeau +10000
Keegan Bradley +11000
Sahith Theegala +11000
Abraham Ancer +11000
Tom Hoge +11000
Keith Mitchell +11000 40
Mito Pereira +12500
Sergio Garcia +12500
Danny Willett +12500
Seamus Power +14000
Russell Henley +15000
Thomas Pieters +15000
Chris Kirk +15000
Talor Gooch +15000
Billy Horschel +16000
Brian Harman +17500 50
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ryan Fox +17500
Bubba Watson +20000
Gary Woodland +20000
Jason Kokrak +20000
Taylor Moore +20000
J.T. Poston +20000
Alex Noren +20000
Phil Mickelson +20000
Harold Varner III +20000
Francesco Molinari +22500 60
Harris English +25000
Mackenzie Hughes +25000
Cameron Champ +25000
Charl Schwartzel +25000
Kevin Na +25000
Adam Svensson +25000
Adrian Meronk +30000
Kyoung-Hoon Lee +30000
Sepp Straka +30000
Kevin Kisner +35000 70
Scott Stallings +35000
Zach Johnson +50000
Kazuki Higa +50000
Gordon Sargent +75000
Harrison Crowe +100000
Bernhard Langer +100000
Fred Couples +100000
Kurt Kitayama +125000
Sam Bennett +150000
Aldrich Potgieter +200000
Matthew McClean +200000
Mike Weir +200000
Ben Carr +250000
Mateo Fernandez de Oliveira +250000
Larry Mize +250000
Vijay Singh +250000
Jose Maria Olazabal +250000
Sandy Lyle +250000
Kurt Kitayama. The top 50 and ties make the cut. He is 46th in strokes gained and 49th in strokes gained approach. Long shot to make the cut I think he is good odds. Like your Na one too. He is a grinder
 

Member
Joined
Jan 5, 2008
Messages
3,021
Tokens
First Round Leader

Looking Back to 2010...

The PM later groups Crush. To be more exact the 12:30-1:30 range is money

Speith has beed Round 1 leader 3 times and twice as super late tee time
Rose has punched Round 1 leader 4 times

The weather Thursday looks best for late tee times. Warmer and less wind.

Greens should be fairly soft compared to typical years for day 1.

The last 5 to 6 groups seems to be the sweet spot for leaders from what I saw going back to 2010. If a believer the conditions will be best later in the day and into early evening as it appears then some good value is out there

Odds vary soo much but few possible flyers

+2200-2500 Spieth last group off 2pm. RD 1 leader 3 times already since 2015

+3500 Rose 1:12 tee time 5th to last group off. RD 1 leader 4 times before

+2800-3500 "OBD" Johnson 1:12 tee time been RD 1 leader before last was 2020 in what may set up similar conditions.

+5500 Tom Kim 1:48 2nd to last group off. Debut but soft course should help for a guy who can fire some super low rounds

+3500 J Day 12:48 tee time and 7th to last group off.

Just a few possible looks. Plenty of other bigger odds guys who may be in good position for RD1 leader who go off in last 7 groups

Finau
Will Z
Hatton
Niemann
Morikawa

Tom Hoge is a pretty aggressive pin hunter who can go low starts of 12:00 pm group. Straka and Woodland same boat as possible odd ball type names to shock after day 1 leader and finish T48TH. Kind of fit the Green gloves Charley Hoffman mold imo.


Considering the long odds and the possible way better late draw which favors past leaders going back to 2010. Target a few golfers in maybe the last few groups. For just a few bucks you could toss darts considering some of the odds. Grabbing a half dozen golfers or so
 

Nothing Can Stop What is Coming!!!
Joined
Jan 4, 2005
Messages
18,893
Tokens
interesting stuff Chris...I might cobble together a first round fantasy team
 

Member
Joined
Oct 12, 2008
Messages
10,180
Tokens
Kurt Kitayama. The top 50 and ties make the cut. He is 46th in strokes gained and 49th in strokes gained approach. Long shot to make the cut I think he is good odds. Like your Na one too. He is a grinder
how ya ben bro?

looking forward to the golf season? cant wait, undergoing a swing change during the off season. Very excited
 

Nothing Can Stop What is Coming!!!
Joined
Jan 4, 2005
Messages
18,893
Tokens
Check out the par 3 contest today if you cant wait to see some action

Before the Masters begins in all its high-stakes pretense, Augusta National Golf Club will host the Par 3 Contest on Wednesday, April 5. A light-hearted family event that precedes the tournament, the Par 3 contest invites former champions, both participating and non-participating, as well as golfers from the current year’s field to play nine holes at the Par 3 course also on the grounds of Augusta National Golf Club.
And while it’s long been considered as one of the most beautiful courses in the world, the Par 3 has undergone significant changes since last year’s contest. Big changes to the first five holes will be tested for the first time.
The golfers often invite parents, wives, girlfriends, and children to be their caddies for the event, even occasionally inviting their caddies and guests to hit a shot or two in the tournament. And the image of little ones toddling around in their all-white caddie uniforms is absolutely adorable, while sometimes one of the kids even sticks it in the hole.

The current reigning champs of the contest are Mike Weir and Mackenzie Hughes. No Par 3 Contest winner has ever gone on to win the Masters in the same year, so a win is considered to be something of a curse. The 2023 Par 3 contest will be available to watch on ESPN at 3:00 p.m. ET on Wednesday.
 

Nothing Can Stop What is Coming!!!
Joined
Jan 4, 2005
Messages
18,893
Tokens
Cam Smith goes from about +2200 to +3500 in last 48 hours

What is up with that......whispers of injury


If he is good then that is one heck of good value.
 

Member
Joined
Jan 5, 2008
Messages
3,021
Tokens
Looking to bet after Day 1 and guys going off early Friday. And peppering the board bunch of PM tee times last 7 groups.

Weather throws a wrench in pre bet imo. I’d probably hold out to after round 1. Past 20 years only Tiger has been outside top 10 after day 1. And won Masters. May catch shorter odds but after rd 1 may be the board to target Plus better scoop on weather and LIV guys

Imo the PM/AM guys having advantage. If the weather is raining and storms maybe delays, then day two guys should be able to finish and get soft conditions. Possibly day two pm guys don’t finish who knows. Having to try and finish early Saturday when worst weather looks to pop. Maybe more delays

1st Time Major Winner angle along with other trends show. Previous winner this year. OWGR top 15. Two biggest trends.

Homa
Finau
Hovland Best fit
Burns

Others exclude first time major trend
Rahm
Rory

Brooks and OBD liv guys check a bunch

1st major winner minus few trends keying in on OWGR inside top 15.

Young
Finau
Burns
Hovland
Zalatoris
Homa
Xander
Cantlay (pass! Cold and East coast. If delays may be lost. Guy has a 3 hr warm up before each round)

Hard gauge the liv guys and stats and finishes so obviously a twist.

Few of big trends past 15 masters
Top 20 OWGR
Top 6-12 OWGR Sweet spot
First time major
Winner this year
T10 in two of last 3 starts.
Good Florida swing two top 15
Top 35 masters last year
Top 50 Driving distance
Top 50 Gir
Played in 3+ masters
Played in 3-5th masters the sweet spot
Favorite never wins (Rory Scottie Rahm) all sorta fave really
Past winner rarely B2B

Best fits so far but nobody checking 90% of boxes
Finau
Hovland
Rory basically the Fave
Rahm close enough Fave


Considering the weather and Drama liv guys etc.

Imo after RD 1 is the spot to target so many variables.

Rumor n reports of guys battling injury or two

Will z
Louie ooooie
Nasty yams
Cam Smith
Hatton


The best wave first two days draw imo notable guys worthy

Spieth
Zalatoris
Finau
Rose
DJ
Brooks
Burns
Morikawa
Fleetwood
Day
 

Member
Joined
Jan 5, 2008
Messages
3,021
Tokens
Cam Smith goes from about +2200 to +3500 in last 48 hours

What is up with that......whispers of injury


If he is good then that is one heck of good value.
He mentioned his game isn’t there like last year. Hasn’t practiced like he did. Been kinda going through life chilling really.

Probably his drop.
 

Nothing Can Stop What is Coming!!!
Joined
Jan 4, 2005
Messages
18,893
Tokens
So I have about 20 snake drafts of various 3,6 and 12 man varieties......ended up pretty heavy on Cam Smith and Keith Mitchell and Shane Lowery

About 10 other regular draft lineups and this one I like the best top to bottom....more Lowery and Mitchell and I didnt even play Cam Smith 1 time out of 10.....he is the 4th highest priced golfer on regular draft but I was getting him usually no lower than 9th and often at 10-15th on snake drafts.

Hope he isnt to fkd up.

canvas.png
 

Member
Joined
Jan 5, 2008
Messages
3,021
Tokens
So I have about 20 snake drafts of various 3,6 and 12 man varieties......ended up pretty heavy on Cam Smith and Keith Mitchell and Shane Lowery

About 10 other regular draft lineups and this one I like the best top to bottom....more Lowery and Mitchell and I didnt even play Cam Smith 1 time out of 10.....he is the 4th highest priced golfer on regular draft but I was getting him usually no higher than 9th and often at 10-15th on snake drafts.

Hope he isnt to fkd up.

View attachment 64105
Like the card! Id want another Euro guy in there maybe. Good mudder maybe a Fleet, Rose, Willet, Hatton, Hovalnd

dfs wise been going heavy

Spieth
DJ
WIll Z/Finau

mixing in next two with
Hatton
Rose
Fleetwood
Kim
Niemmann

finishing up with
willet or Brooks

Tyically I like to paint the board as I say. Aussie, two Euro and three americans. Or maybe asian S african guy in there. Looking back at majors the top 10 and top 5 is pretty spread out. Always like a good Aussie at the masters but Cam draws the AM/PM wave and not sold on Day price plus looking at 20%+ ownership. Pricing makes it hard to work em in for my builds.

Big Gpp need em all inside top 12 for good shot at decent money. Unless you get 1-3 finishers another top 7 guy and 2 guys who may finish T20 but bang in scoring points not finishing points.

Risky but fading the big 3 if they shit the bed can be huge. Been staying pretty tight with going only PM/AM groups.
 

Nothing Can Stop What is Coming!!!
Joined
Jan 4, 2005
Messages
18,893
Tokens
Just not trusting Will Z.....heavy heavy fading....he might be in 3 lineups total

99 percent fade of Hatton , I think I got him in 1 snake just to say I took him.ha
 

Nothing Can Stop What is Coming!!!
Joined
Jan 4, 2005
Messages
18,893
Tokens
Went with this for RD1 team...

rd 1.png
 

Forum statistics

Threads
1,106,902
Messages
13,439,420
Members
99,345
Latest member
08winlink
The RX is the sports betting industry's leading information portal for bonuses, picks, and sportsbook reviews. Find the best deals offered by a sportsbook in your state and browse our free picks section.FacebookTwitterInstagramContact Usforum@therx.com