The Limper NFL 2025-26 – Week 11

[WillyBoyXXX]

Another pathetic week for model. Strong teams that put up gaudy early season numbers are falling apart, while early weaker teams are pulling upsets and covering left and right. I’ve spent a day adjusting team variables to more recent performance data, which I hope will turn things around. Dogs, since Week 8, are covering at a 60%+ clip, better than their very weak start of the season. Looking for a regression to the mean. (Also, posted the wrong score the other day for JAX @ HOU, where JAX, like the Giants, collapsed at the end, accounting for yet another model loss, smh). FWIW: score totals are holding strong at 56.1%. Overs are hitting 58.1% of the time, Unders at 40.5%. GLTA

 

[uscmd]

Tiny on top and bottom. 2/3 of the league 5-4, or 4-5 ats. So add injurys, especially at key spots, or clusters and you have chaos, what the NFL calls parity.

Question is, model wise, is this the new normal, or an aberration . I enjoy reading your model, that and sagarin, are great on Tuesday, as the data gathering begins. THANK YOU FOR MAINTAINING THIS. BOL THIS WEEK.

 

[WillyBoyXXX]

The 2nd half of the season should answer the question. Just looking at the standings, “parity” remains only a dream. Bad teams are still bad, if a tad better than they were, and good teams, while still good, often, bizarrely, play down to their opponents level. Regarding ATS records across the league, it’s a shocking overall result thus far. Recently, Vegas line-setters have gone a little recency-bias-nuts; and, given last week’s spate of blow-outs, I’m surprised there aren’t more double-digit lines. Maybe they’re taking their Xanax.

 

[WillyBoyXXX]

 

[WillyBoyXXX]

Above projections include 1st Injury and line-up changes. Just a bug in the model.

 

[WillyBoyXXX]

 

[WillyBoyXXX]

FWIW: The Straight-up MOV for last night’s game was NE by 12.47, rounded to 12.5. As the closing line dropped to NE -12.5, model’s final pick went NYJ +12.5 – a half-point ATS loss for the model by 3/100ths of a point! A tad disappointing, but given the final score margin of 13 points, an existential uplift for being only 53/100ths off from nailing the margin perfectly.

 

[WillyBoyXXX]

 

[jd95]

Thanks for posting your statistics and projections every week

 

[WillyBoyXXX]