The Limper NFL 2022 – Regular Season - Week 4

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When dogs cover, stat-based projections – like those of Number Fire, Team Rankings and The Limper get ass-kicked; and, dogs are covering at 61% after 3 weeks. A reminder that numbers are only ever a guide to the bettor, and not, by any means, slam-dunk predictions – which are up to the bettor to provide.



GLTA

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Rankings below are based on a Composite Average (C-AVE), using Win/Loss/Push (PCT), Strength of Opposition (O-AVE), and a ranked score of a number of statistical variables (R-AVE). The Value Power Ranking are similarly based but using a valuation of the strength of opposition in determining W/L/P stats.



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FWIW - The Offense/Defense rankings below are based on numbers from the first three weeks, with a measure of number-massaging according to my personal preferences. Which is to say that I tend to value passing numbers over rushing, redzone efficiency (where the Lions are killing it) over scoring (where they’re also killing it), and yards per play made and defended overall. Thing is, this is really early in the season to be doing this, where outliers count far too much, where teams like Detroit and Chicago look like rushing monsters, Baltimore’s passing D is the worst in league, and Tampa’s offense is 2nd worse. It’s only 3 games’ worth of numbers - so take these rankings with a grain of salt.

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Limper, I really love your data, for me its must check each week. TY

In the NY/Chi game, on the macro level, its impossible for me to play a team, that has a qb, throwing less than 100 yds/game. QBR 23, rating 50. Low scoring game could make the 3-3.5 valuable. But for me its NY or pass.
I think there are 7 or 8 very live dogs. BOL with your plays and TY for your data.
 

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I teased NYG, and the under. The numbers add up to close games, so dogs seem the way to go. GL
 

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