Sometimes numbers lie. Carolina’s big jump over the Browns (nearly 2 points), all because Mayfield was plugged in as the starter, is the result of Mayfield’s slight statistical edge over Darnold. I like Baker, but IMO, he’s not that big of an upgrade. On the other hand, if I plug in Pickett over Trubisky, for the Steelers game against the Bengals, the model is so in love with the “rookie’s” college numbers, it actually has them in a dead tie – MOV 0.00 - but I wouldn’t buy that either. The Falcons’ huge jump (4.6 points!) over the Saints is the result of a correction to a data goof up I made early on, and the preseason play of Marcus Mariota. Injuries account for the rest of the schedule’s changes, with – no doubt – more to come.