The King presents week #4 in the NFL

[KingdomCome]

Lately I have not been able to provide the format of what I did last year cause of timing of projects outside of gambling and the course it has taken me. I've had some request if I have the time to provide this old format so here it is. So far the season has been off to a great start, if the site did not go down for week #1, the posted and documented units up would be higher than they are but it is what it is. We all were faced with the Dos attack that set us back in posting.

So far on the season I am up $7273, all posted here, with the exception of the week 1 post where I had Det TT over and it is factored into this number.

http://therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=613529&page=4

This week, there is one game that jumped out at me and I bet it already. Tampa is hosting Green Bay and I think we are about to see the real Rodgers come out. Yes they played the "best" team in football in Dallas but is Detroit and Minny with Tavaris at the helm a true test? Or are they bad teams. I think it is the later. Now he has to face a scrappy Tampa team with Griese playing with confidence and face a top 5 defense in the league. If the Saints did not pull off a last minute victory, Tampa would be 3-0. I always have the mindset if I am getting even teams at a pick at home, always take the home team. Good luck to all this week. :toast:


Official Play:

Tampa -1 -109 (25 units)






NFL SEASON 9-5 ($7273)

 

[JimmyVegas]

I can see Tampa being the underdog by gametime...........everyone is taking the packers so far

 

[KingdomCome]

I can see Tampa being the underdog by gametime...........everyone is taking the packers so far

Not quite sure I can see the same thing. Right now Greek has -2.5 +100 Tampa, can't see a 3 point swing. If they do become dogs and I get above even money, I will lay more on Tampa. Lets see what happens. :toast:

 

[smartmoneyfollower]

Packers CB Al Harris could miss the rest of the season with a ruptured spleen. I

 

[thecruncher]

Yeah, this line has inexplicably come down to -1 or even pick. I definitely took the worst of it at -2.5, lol. Eh, win most, lose a few on early line movements. I'm not sure why the total is rising either.

 

[liftnbet]

great start..bol

 

[CoolBreeze22]

King,

Great job thus far!! I was wondering what your opinion is on tonight's game?


When I look at the Chargers home results last season they look like this...

1) Chargers -7 vs. Bears Chargers W 14-3 U43

2) Chargers -12 vs. Kansas City L 16-30 O38.5
this game came after back to back losses on the road, at which point they were definately a team in turmoil. Tonight, they are coming off back to back losses and somewhat a team in turmoil due to the ref controversy, and injuries to some key players.

3) Chargers -9.5 vs. Oakland W 28-14 U44

4) Chargers -10 vs. Houston W 35-10 U46

5) Chargers +3.5 vs. Indy W 23-21 U47

6) Chargers -9 vs. Baltimore W 32-14 O38.5

7) Chargers -10 vs. Detroit W 51-14 O45.5

8) Chargers -9 vs. Denver W 23-3 U47

9) Chargers -10.5 vs. Tennessee W 17-6 U 38.5

8-1 ATS at home last year, 0-1 thus far, I'm leaning towards San Diego but I'm wondering where their defense has been. Jets game 3 under Favre, their defense seems to be much improved. Favre lit up the Chargers defense last year playing each other in week 3 Favre threw for 369 3 TD's and 0 INT's, but that was with Green Bay's players and system. I saw you picked the Jets in your teaser play, just wanting to get your thoughts on this matchup.

 

[Cougar24]

King...Thanks for the early post...it is much appreciated...Followed you the last 2 years with great success...GL

 

[1sob]

like this play myself, tb defence should be all over rodgers

 

[AlistairCookie]

Thanks King - looking forward to your plays.

 

[Jetplane]

how much is 1 unit again?

 

[oddball]

Tampa is a pickem at Bookmaker

 

[AlistairCookie]

how much is 1 unit again?

I'm a small bettor, so I take his down a tenth of a place.

40 units becomes 4, 25 becomes 2.5 --> not that this answers your question...his units are $100 I think.

 

[substyle]

I'm a small bettor, so I take his down a tenth of a place.

40 units becomes 4, 25 becomes 2.5 --> not that this answers your question...his units are $100 I think.

based on the other thread i think this is correct.

ive been doing the same as you. Dividing his plays by 10 and playing it at $100/unit.

 

[KingdomCome]

King,

Great job thus far!! I was wondering what your opinion is on tonight's game?


When I look at the Chargers home results last season they look like this...

1) Chargers -7 vs. Bears Chargers W 14-3 U43

2) Chargers -12 vs. Kansas City L 16-30 O38.5
this game came after back to back losses on the road, at which point they were definately a team in turmoil. Tonight, they are coming off back to back losses and somewhat a team in turmoil due to the ref controversy, and injuries to some key players.

3) Chargers -9.5 vs. Oakland W 28-14 U44

4) Chargers -10 vs. Houston W 35-10 U46

5) Chargers +3.5 vs. Indy W 23-21 U47

6) Chargers -9 vs. Baltimore W 32-14 O38.5

7) Chargers -10 vs. Detroit W 51-14 O45.5

8) Chargers -9 vs. Denver W 23-3 U47

9) Chargers -10.5 vs. Tennessee W 17-6 U 38.5

8-1 ATS at home last year, 0-1 thus far, I'm leaning towards San Diego but I'm wondering where their defense has been. Jets game 3 under Favre, their defense seems to be much improved. Favre lit up the Chargers defense last year playing each other in week 3 Favre threw for 369 3 TD's and 0 INT's, but that was with Green Bay's players and system. I saw you picked the Jets in your teaser play, just wanting to get your thoughts on this matchup.

This game is so tricky to cap because it is documented that Farve is not happy with the play calling and all of the motion and stuff he is not use to. San Diego's defense looks suspect so far and based on River's last performance, I have a feeling they will air it out.

No idea about the side, 9 points is a lot of points and the back door cover is always an option no matter what the Jets are down. Down 14 and Jets have last possession is almost a guarantee that Farve will get the back door cover. Good luck whatever you decide.

One thing that I don't understand is the big line movement in the total which leads me into my value play. Right now the total is 46 Over -110 at Pinnacle and Greek still has hung up Over 37.5 -240 which gives you better than even money parlayed against another -240. So you get even money on one leg of a 8.5 point teaser which is tons of value. I think NYJ open up the play book and I think SD will continue to score points. Kind of like the over but I do like this value play. FYI, I won't count this play in my record but I will count the money won or loss on the game.

Official Play:

NYJ/SD Over 37.5 -240 (10 units)

 

[KingdomCome]

This game is so tricky to cap because it is documented that Farve is not happy with the play calling and all of the motion and stuff he is not use to. San Diego's defense looks suspect so far and based on River's last performance, I have a feeling they will air it out.

No idea about the side, 9 points is a lot of points and the back door cover is always an option no matter what the Jets are down. Down 14 and Jets have last possession is almost a guarantee that Farve will get the back door cover. Good luck whatever you decide.

One thing that I don't understand is the big line movement in the total which leads me into my value play. Right now the total is 46 Over -110 at Pinnacle and Greek still has hung up Over 37.5 -240 which gives you better than even money parlayed against another -240. So you get even money on one leg of a 8.5 point teaser which is tons of value. I think NYJ open up the play book and I think SD will continue to score points. Kind of like the over but I do like this value play. FYI, I won't count this play in my record but I will count the money won or loss on the game.

Official Play:

NYJ/SD Over 37.5 -240 (10 units)

That was a quick and easy winner, already done in the 2nd quarter. :toast:

 

[VicVega91]

arty::money8:

before half time:lolBIG:

 

[KingdomCome]

arty::money8:

before half time:lolBIG:

LMAO, how about with 11:11 minutes left in the 2nd quarter so lets say in 18:49 minutes. LOL!! :toast:

 

[OTK]

I will also be on TB most likely, but really disagree that it's because the "true" Rodgers will come out. The guy is an outstanding QB imo, and will grow to be a top 5 qb in the NFL. Right now I'd probably put him in the top 10. He is not the reason they will lose to TB. They even have a better overall team than TB, I just like the situation for the Bucs playing at home with an outstanding defense laying less than a FG.

Good luck.

 

[VicVega91]

LMAO, how about with 11:11 minutes left in the 2nd quarter so lets say in 18:49 minutes. LOL!! :toast:

It doesn't get much better than that (or easier). Thanks King:toast:

I took your play staight up and also parlayed it with the Chargers on the money line for the first half:drink: