The key to games, gameplans

[winbet]

With the chance of being called egotistical and arrogant, I have pretty much gone through every phase of handicapping and betting over the Years resulting in eons of wasted Hours. One can get statistically expert in handicapping and I've always said, knowing the true line is a good starting point in any match NFL or any other Sport but becoming a slave to those numbers opens up a can of worms which morph into conflict along the way. One conflict of note is whether once you have made your line, do you oppose the Books number or like some, go with the Book.

One thing I have learned over the Years is game plans are the most important issue in deciding whether to have a bet or not. The figures can be exact but what Coaches think and do can be far more destructive to a bet. I've found that there's a comfort zone in the Coaches game plans to the point of the bigger the Books spread, the bigger the chances Coaches will move away from the Teams normal methods. It not that the Coaches know the Books spread but personally know their Team needs to do more than the normal. So when it comes to betting these games, I've found a half Goal, FG, 2pts in various Sports as giving me the comfort that these Games will be played tight and both Teams playing to their strengths, then your numbers can come into play.

In the NFL these Games would be the ones with a Home spread -6 to Pick, a Team going up 1 or 2 TDs is not going to affect the Game plan at an early stage whereas One TD in a one sided game changes things immediately, hence the blowouts. So the bottom line is, lots of statistical work gets less realiant as the Books spread increases, stay within the boundaries and work on each Teams normal game plans and you have a chance of games actually playing out to your thinking. :drink:

 

[billbeater]

good words Winbet! :toast:

 

[C-Gold]

Nice thoughts.

One of the key aspects I look at is coaches. Lane Kiffen vs Bellicheck? Norv Turner vs Jeff Fischer?

I think another theoretical reason for upsets is this.

Team A = dominant
Team B = crap

If team B is a heavy dog and if they go in there and just do what they do, they get killed. So team B devises a game play that is totally different. Maybe it works, maybe it doesn't.

2001 rams
2001 Patriots in the SB

The Pats are 14 point dogs, and if the game goes as most people expect it, the Rams score 30+, and a young 7th round draft pick Tom Brady dinks and dunks his way to 20 or so points.

Bill Bellicheck decides the unorthadox approach of having a nickel defense as his starting defense to slow down the Rams pass, and his team pulls off the huge upset.

 

[winbet]

Thats exactly it, the closer the Teams are the more likely they will stay reasonably within their normal gameplan, giving us at least a shot at getting it right instead of lucky. :drink:

 

[tannguyen94]

Records

It is very good idea. Where can I find coach records? Thanks

 

[C-Gold]

Thats exactly it, the closer the Teams are the more likely they will stay reasonably within their normal gameplan, giving us at least a shot at getting it right instead of lucky. :drink:

You are right. I also remember a game in maybe 2002 where a crappy Bengals team just started running 5 wides against a heavily favored Steelers team and it worked and they won.

Teams get desperate and try new stuff. The trick plays, the new formations, the onsides kicks.

If the other team is a TD better, it probably doesn't matter, but when you get a team 14, 17 points better, don't be suprised when they try new stuff or try some weird game plan.

BB ran a 2-5 against the Bills in the 1991 super bowl and WANTED Thurman Thomas to have over 100 yards rushing. That would mean that Jim Kelly and the K gun offense won't be racking up the fast points, and it would shorten the game.

 

[C-Gold]

It is very good idea. Where can I find coach records? Thanks

It isn't just about coaches records. What happens if Bill Parcells takes over for a 1-15 Jets team, and they go 9-7 next year.

Then compare him to say a Mike Tomlin that coaches a finished product Steelers team to a 10-6 record.


Does that mean Tomlin is a better coach? You could argue what Norv Turner did with a stacked SD team last year was a BAD job, while what Tony Sporano did in Miami this year is a fantastic job.

 

[C-Gold]

I personally think Tony Dungy is one of the most overrated coaches of all time.

Considering he had 9 probowlers on defense in Tampa ( the team won when he left despite him), and all that talent he has on that Indy offense. He had 2 great GM's.

Just watch a Titans/Colts game and watch Fischer beat him or barely lose with less talent over and over and over again. Dungy is way way wayyyyyyy over hyped.

 

[winbet]

Herm Edwards is the epitome of what I'm talking about, when it a tight game he plays a very vanilla game plan but if he's an underdog then out comes the trick plays. :drink:

 

[C-Gold]

Herm Edwards is the epitome of what I'm talking about, when it a tight game he plays a very vanilla game plan but if he's an underdog then out comes the trick plays. :drink:

Herm still plays the vanilla stuff when he is the dog, he tries to shorten the game as much as possible, then try and win it.

Herm has got to be one of the most conservative coaches out there. Even more so than Martyball. It works when you have a good team, but when you don't you get these 1-10 Herm results.