The half point vs reduced juice

[CHOPTALK]

I was reading a debate in the overated/underated sportsbooks thread about the half point vs reduced juice. I want to know what everyone thinks on this subject. When debating this subject you have to add the fact that you cant get the half point off 3 and 7.

Personally I will gladly take the -105 any day over the half point. You save on every single loss on reduced juice. The half point only saves you every once in a while.

Thoughts.

I love hearing answers to these kinds of questions. You never know what you will learn.

 

[coconutman]

Well how many times do you lose a game during a fooball season because of the hook? Every 10th 15th game?

If you bet on a lot of games then take the reduced juice.


It's best to have 2 books..

 

[oldmanTED]

The decision to either take the half point or reduced juice is influenced by whether your number is a potential key number not including 3 or 7. Numbers like 4, 6, 8, 10, etc. bear consideration for getting on or off with the free half point versus always taking the reduced juice. On the flip side, the reduced juice can move attractively enough to take the juice over the half point. Situation will dictate.

 

[jwblue]

There is a mathematical formula to determine definitively what the answer is. But I don't know what the equation is.

What is the value of the half point off of every number (i.e. 5.5 to 5, 4 to 3.5, etc.)?

IS

 

[drunkguy]

you can get the exact #s if you have a database (or find them published someplace)

if not, you can do a quick approximation by looking at Pinny's lines in the drop-down box for each game.

 

[jwblue]

Another thing to add about Skybook. They move the vig on the lines. A lot of times, Skybook has the lower vig than anywhere else on the same number.

IS

 

[BAGIANT]

I've already made my statement, but I'll repeat it here in case someone didn't read the other thread.

Since around 83% of the time the pointspread has no bearing on the betting outcome in football, and approximately 13% of the time the games land on 3, and roughly 10% on 7, a site barring buying off 3 or 7 doesn't really offer you any advantage throughout the season.

Having an out that gives you reduced juice AND let's you buy off of all numbers gives you a better edge during the season. Say an out has a -105 betting line and charges you 10% extra to buy off all numbers and 15% extra to buy off 3, you are going to have an advantage over a site that bars 3 and 7. Anytime a game falls on 3 or 7 that you bet on at one site, you are going to have a push. At your reduced juice site that allows you to buy off those numbers you'll have a winner! With approximately 23% of all games falling on 3 or 7, that could be a substantial amount of money in your pocket!

 

[WildBill]

I would say just look at it as 5 cents being even. It does depend on the actual numbers. Fezzik probably could give you a more accurate answer of what a half point is worth. One thing I will say is adopt a policy and stick with it. If you say at -105 or less you will forgo the extra half point, don't deviate. Too many guys will try to "feel" it out, thinking through the problem. This sort of stuff will drive you nuts in the long run. If you just stick with a policy then when it doesn't work out to your advantage, you just move on and remember the policy was set for mathematical reasons that in the long run should benefit you.

 

[Dawoofdaddy]

In NFL I certainly prefer to have the extra hook for -110 than laying -105 for any/all sides and totals. Since the two point play rule, many different scores are more likely than before the two point play rule.

In NCAA some of the big tv conferences such as big 10 and sec sides seem tighter and plenty of low scoring games, so on certain sides 4, 10, 14, 17 I would say I would prefer to have the extra hook at -110 then not having it for -105.

Unfortunately, the half point books Ive held accounts have ran me off since the free hook matters more than they care to admit when a person can shop and only play into soft numbers.

Football season soon awaits!

:fballch3:

 

[Dawoofdaddy]

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RX Junior

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<HR style="COLOR: #fdde82" SIZE=1><!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->I've already made my statement, but I'll repeat it here in case someone didn't read the other thread.




Since around 83% of the time the pointspread has no bearing on the betting outcome in football, and approximately 13% of the time the games land on 3, and roughly 10% on 7, a site barring buying off 3 or 7 doesn't really offer you any advantage throughout the season.



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This 83% is somewhat misleading for it measures all numbers equally when in football (especially nfl) that is obviously incorrect. As Ted stated certain numbers have to be more stongly considered taking the extra hook for -110 vs. -105. To say that 5 should be assigned equal weight of probability as 4, 9 is same as 10, 15 is same as 14, 26 is same as 7, 3 is same as 33 is incorrect.

83% may be the 'raw' number of football games which the spread has no significance, but for certain numbers the 'real' spread significance percentage is lower than 83%.

For basketball betting the 'raw' analysis is accurate for the scoring is more random. However, the football scoring is much different, so using 'raw' analysis and treating every number equally is somewhat flawed.

Good thread guys for it helps grease the gears for football will soon be here. Best of luck to everyone this season.

:drink:

 

[nimue77]

Both! The more books you have the better. No book has the best line on everything, gotta shop around!

I was reading a debate in the overated/underated sportsbooks thread about the half point vs reduced juice. I want to know what everyone thinks on this subject. When debating this subject you have to add the fact that you cant get the half point off 3 and 7.

Personally I will gladly take the -105 any day over the half point. You save on every single loss on reduced juice. The half point only saves you every once in a while.

Thoughts.

I love hearing answers to these kinds of questions. You never know what you will learn.

 

[silver7]

You`re All Overlooking

one important facet of the discussion. i.e. Totals. Especially in the NFL.. Millennium allows this and also does NOT bar the # 7. Yes this option is only available on Fri. it`s still a valuable consideration. Give me 2 wins for say $50 as a result of the 1/2, that $100 would mean I`d have to lose 40 $50 bets to offset the diferance between 105 & 110 vig. Giving me enough to buy off the occasional 3, if I chose. However since Mil doesn`t cater to the "dime" layer as much as Pinny they`re probably a better choice for them.

 

[Dawoofdaddy]

The Millenium free 1/2 is a great promo, but they cut off larger players that gain winners from the free hooks and hammer bad numbers.

They used to also give the free 1/2 off/on 3 in ncaa football. That must have been a nightmare to them.

Glad to see some of you are taking advantage of milleniums free halves and good teaser odds.

:drink:

 

[Fezzik]

As other posters have said, "it all depends".

The basics: Buying on/off vs. full vig.

It only makes sense to buy on/off a number it it "hits" at 4.5% of the time. Now, how did I get that number? Well assume I go 500-500 ATS playing into 1/2 point lines with no buy. Obviously, I lose 50 units to -110 vig. If in 45 of those I lose by 1/2 a point, the buy will make my record 500-455-45. Now, I lose "only" 46 units, so my performance is ever so slighly better better.

The problem is that most games don't land on the number at 4.5% or higher a clip. The NFL 3 is a huge exception, teams favored by 3 win by 3 around 11.5% of the time! The NFL 7,10,14 and the College 3 and 7 all will hit at over 4.5% so in All those cases, the buy is the superior play to the nonbuy.

Obviously, when comparing a -105 bet at +x to a -110 bet at +x.5, now we only need to have the game "land" on the number at 2.25% of the time to prefer that extra 1/2 point. Virtually EVERY basketball side bet qualifies, a 1/2 point is worth more than 5 cents. On totals in hoops, it is pretty close proposition. In the NFL, most of the time the extra 1/2 point is preferred to the -105, but obviously obsurre number like 2, 5, and 9 are exceptions, as teams favored by 9 for example don't win by 9 at even a 2% clip.

Note, HUGE mistakes get made by even the experts in discussions like this. The biggest mistake I see is a WHOPPER, where guys say stuff like "16 percent of all NFL games land on 3", but forget that for the game to land on the number the favorite has to win!

The Double Whopper with Cheese is the mistake many experts make, where they conclude that buying a 1/2 point is a bad play as it still will result in a losing group of bets when played blindly. For example buying every NFL 6.5 point dog to +7, -120 is a losing strategy. However, the buy is the correct play GIVEN you are already going to play +6.5, -110. It is not correct to compare the buy to no bet, but rather to compare the bet with the buy, to how one would do when betting without the buy.

Note, in my analysis, I assumed a 50% ATS record, and 1/2 point lines. Feel free to use a 53.5% ATS record, and integer and 1/2 point lines. The math gets deeper, the results stay comparable.

As Wild Bill says, guys LOVE to make sweeping generalizations but one should do the actual math to figure out what is optima. The lazy man's method is to go to Pinny's drop down menus to compare buying selling half points, as they tend to charge just a little bit extra than you should pay to buy, and they give you just a little bit too less to sell half points.

 

[silver7]

D Daddy

Yes I`ve heard they`re tough on "dime" players. Since I`m far from that there hasn`t been a prob.. You mentioned teasers, the one they have which is hard to find anymore is even $ on 2 tm 6ptr`s. I love this bet especially in the NFL. Most books have 11/10 or even 6/5. Made a lot of money hedging w/it. It`s ideal for a player like me, in certain instances and so is Mil.

 

[wantitall4moi]

Reduced vig is better generally.


First and foremost you can get a half point WITH the reduced juice these days if you have enough outs. I guess it all boils down to what the "correct" number is supposed to be.

Even when you take line moves versus openres and the difference those moves make in a win and a loss, the difference is still about 79% of the time the line menas nothing. Meaning line moves make a difference about 3-4% of the time. In NFL anyways.

When someone can show me when they are good enough to buy on or off the 3-4% enoughof the time to make a long temr winner then you will find someone who is definately intelligent enough to stay away from games where you would need to buy off or ona number in the first place.

The bottomline is that if you win or lose a game by a half a point it is strictly luck, either good or bad; depending on if you won or lost. These guys that claim they "knew" enough to buy a game the "right" way are in the same breath admitting they bet a game that they had to basically sweat out just to get a frigging push. I would much rather have a game where my teams wins by DD versus the spread, and be "dumb", than be worrying about being "smart" and praying for a push because I bought the "right" way.

If you make thousands of bets in a year or in alifetime, the few bad beats are long forgotten and are long made up for in more collections when you don't buy.

Even if they are free, if you can get a number than is a half point heavy and can get it for 3-5 cents less on vig, in the long term it is worth it. Especially since you can't get the 3 and 7 for free. And the 7 isn't even worth worrying about.

I have posted many many posts about the 3. I have data for about 25 years. And I have showed that even with the 3 (the highest likelihood at about 8.5-10%), you would be ahead maybe $10 per 100 bet. Meaning that if you are a 500 player, and bough to the 3 every game you would have "saved" enough losers to make enough to bet one more game..$500. So in 25 years buying every game off the most infamous number out there would basically be saving you 2 bux a year.

Of course the results are for closing numbers, and a fixed rate of -110 both ways. But in all likelihood because the -3 is ALWAYS vig heavy one way you could very well be behind buying off it.

It also doesn't help matters when the discrepency from year to year and the push rate is so volatile that you cannot even determine the true probability of a game pushing on -3. The consensus is 10%. But I can show where the vast majority of years the probailty is about 6%, with a few abnormal years where you get 12-18% that push the overal rate to 10.

So one could just as easilly say that the more true probabilty of a game pushing on 3 is 6% since about 18 or 19 of 25 years that has been the case. But you have some abnormal years that are so high that they throw that number up to the 10% that most people use. In the strictest technical terms it would be 10%, but in the real world I think it is lower most of the time, with a few bad years thrown in to even it out.

One other thijg that guys tend to forget is that buying off doesn't prevent a loss, it just prevents a push. That is why the winnings are so small even when you do buy. Because even by NOT buying you don't lose, you just push.

 

[TescoVee]

good info

 

[cincy_]

The basics: Buying on/off vs. full vig.

It only makes sense to buy on/off a number it it "hits" at 4.5% of the time. Now, how did I get that number? Well assume I go 500-500 ATS playing into 1/2 point lines with no buy. Obviously, I lose 50 units to -110 vig. If in 45 of those I lose by 1/2 a point, the buy will make my record 500-455-45. Now, I lose "only" 46 units, so my performance is ever so slighly better better.

Huh? How can you go 500-455-45 and lose 46 units?

500 - 455*1.1 = approximately 0

or 50 - 45*1.1 = approximately 0