Well…at least until next season. We'll all miss football until then.
Carolina -4.5
Carolina 1H -3
I had Denver last week vs. New England, and even though it paid off, the game left me with lots of doubts about just how good this Bronco team is. Have watched Carolina and Denver in both playoff games, and other games during the season. I have also watched Seattle play a lot, and a few Arizona games(besides their playoff games). So much of this play is from the my personal eye-test of watching football.
I looked at all the ways I could take Denver here, and I just can't come up with enough reasons to do that, not even with 4.5 points. And remember only 5 teams have lost and yet covered in SB history, so the odds are that the winner will also cover the spread. I tried to list my reasons for taking Carolina in order of their influence on the outcome.
1) It's not Manning's weaker arm that would concern me if I was on Denver, it's his almost complete lack of mobility. He can make up for lack of arm strength with his timing, touch and QB acumen. But there's nothing he can do about how slow he is and how easy a target he can be sitting in the pocket. Manning has looked okay during the playoffs, was hurt by dropped passes in the Pitt game, but I think he'll be a detriment here against a very good Panther front 7. And I'm not impressed with the Bronco running game or their run blocking. Denver's offense, since mid-season has not had a dynamic run game and that hurts them here with a pocket QB who is not a threat to run.
2) This 2nd factor cannot be overlooked, and yet by my eye-test has been a huge difference-maker. That's the Carolina OL. Cam has the escapibility to not always need great pass protection, but does it seem like he's been getting it in these 2 playoff games? He looks like he is sitting there for many seconds waiting for his receivers to get open. Or he moves around the pocket and finds a receiver. Or he rolls out and finds a receiver. Either way, Carolina's offense not only has a large QB advantage, but their OL is both run blocking well, and giving Newton enough time to connect on long and medium pass plays.
3) The designed QB run plays by Carolina, the run/ pass option, the spread-run offense- whatever you call it- is a headache for defenses and I THINK a large reason why Carolina has been winning so often, and sometimes winning big. Having to account for the QB on run plays could be the one thing that keeps Denver's great defensive ends from overcommitting to the rush, and negating a bit their effectiveness. Whatever OC Shula has done with this offense, it is working. Which leads me to #4...
4) Dominating Seattle and Arizona at a combined 55-7 1st half score might be unprecedented. Despite what some say about how those 2 teams played poorly or weren't very good, they're wrong. Prior to the playoffs, the odds as to who would be the NFL champ were: #1 Arizona at about 4-1, #2 New England at about 9-2, and #3 Seattle at about 5-1 (and Carolina at #4 at about 11-2). That's the experts (the bookmakers) saying that, not the dude who says a team sucks after they lose a game. Seattle was peaking in the 2nd half of the season and Arizona was considered the favorite to win it all- probably because they were the most well rounded team with no major weaknesses. The Panthers could not have done anything more except dominate- which they did. This team is 22-2 in their last 24 games. Very hard to do in the NFL. Denver's 2nd half was not that impressive, but their D kept them in many games. And though Seattle came back in the 2nd half of their playoff game with Carolina, I think the Carolina coaches learned their lesson and won't get too conservative offensively or defensively as evidenced by the crushing they gave the Cardinals in their 2nd half.
5) Denver's defense is better, but it's not a huge edge. Mostly because their secondary is better. But I think Carolina's potent offense negates that edge. And Carolina's defense works hard at getting turnovers, which they are succeeding at. Carolina's D has an easier job going against this Bronco offense, so overall, I like Carolina when they have the ball better than Denver with the ball.
6) Do people hate Cam Newton so much that they can't EVER lay a bet on the Panthers? His celebrations are only annoying because QBs are supposed to celebrate with more dignity- like a fist pump or throwing their hands up in some way. Okay, so Cam celebrates like a wide receiver. He looks like an ass out there, but I can live with it as long as he's winning and I have money on Carolina. Besides, as Cam says," He's having fun." And on that subject, I also like how Carolina plays "loose". They do look like they're having fun, and I think that could eliminate some of the nervousness in such big games.
* Perhaps others think Ron Rivera is a mediocre coach. Maybe he is, but right now this team of his is….
7) Peaking. Just my opinion(but it seems obvious) that Carolina has upped their game in the playoffs. They also upped their game at times during the season, winning 8 games by 10 or more points. And since they have won so easily their first 2 playoff games, have we seen the entire Panther playbook out there? I don't think so. As much as I like the Bronco defense, this could be another factor that negates some of their effectiveness.
8) Is the NFC a better conference at the top? 3 of the top 4 teams favored to win the SB were NFC teams. Just my eye-test again, but I would favor more of the eliminated NFC playoff teams over the eliminated AFC teams. Of course the AFC teams seemed to have more injuries. And the lower tier NFC teams are an ugly bunch.
I know many would like to see a storybook ending with classy Peyton Manning going out with a SB win, but this VERY good Panther team doesn't care one whit about that. And storybook endings don't often work out if you remember: a) the Giants knocking off the perfect season Pats back in 2007 b) A few years later, the Pats get revenge on the Giants-NOT c) Wasn't Peyton going out with a SB win two years ago when Seattle embarrassed Denver? d) Seattle was poised to win a 2nd consecutive SB last year(which is becoming harder to do). Another storybook with an unhappy ending.
This year, the disliked QB wins over the one of the greatest. It's more evidence of the changing of the game with mobile QBs that can also pass. And in this game, it'll be a huge edge that should help Carolina win(and cover).
Carolina -4.5
Carolina 1H -3
I had Denver last week vs. New England, and even though it paid off, the game left me with lots of doubts about just how good this Bronco team is. Have watched Carolina and Denver in both playoff games, and other games during the season. I have also watched Seattle play a lot, and a few Arizona games(besides their playoff games). So much of this play is from the my personal eye-test of watching football.
I looked at all the ways I could take Denver here, and I just can't come up with enough reasons to do that, not even with 4.5 points. And remember only 5 teams have lost and yet covered in SB history, so the odds are that the winner will also cover the spread. I tried to list my reasons for taking Carolina in order of their influence on the outcome.
1) It's not Manning's weaker arm that would concern me if I was on Denver, it's his almost complete lack of mobility. He can make up for lack of arm strength with his timing, touch and QB acumen. But there's nothing he can do about how slow he is and how easy a target he can be sitting in the pocket. Manning has looked okay during the playoffs, was hurt by dropped passes in the Pitt game, but I think he'll be a detriment here against a very good Panther front 7. And I'm not impressed with the Bronco running game or their run blocking. Denver's offense, since mid-season has not had a dynamic run game and that hurts them here with a pocket QB who is not a threat to run.
2) This 2nd factor cannot be overlooked, and yet by my eye-test has been a huge difference-maker. That's the Carolina OL. Cam has the escapibility to not always need great pass protection, but does it seem like he's been getting it in these 2 playoff games? He looks like he is sitting there for many seconds waiting for his receivers to get open. Or he moves around the pocket and finds a receiver. Or he rolls out and finds a receiver. Either way, Carolina's offense not only has a large QB advantage, but their OL is both run blocking well, and giving Newton enough time to connect on long and medium pass plays.
3) The designed QB run plays by Carolina, the run/ pass option, the spread-run offense- whatever you call it- is a headache for defenses and I THINK a large reason why Carolina has been winning so often, and sometimes winning big. Having to account for the QB on run plays could be the one thing that keeps Denver's great defensive ends from overcommitting to the rush, and negating a bit their effectiveness. Whatever OC Shula has done with this offense, it is working. Which leads me to #4...
4) Dominating Seattle and Arizona at a combined 55-7 1st half score might be unprecedented. Despite what some say about how those 2 teams played poorly or weren't very good, they're wrong. Prior to the playoffs, the odds as to who would be the NFL champ were: #1 Arizona at about 4-1, #2 New England at about 9-2, and #3 Seattle at about 5-1 (and Carolina at #4 at about 11-2). That's the experts (the bookmakers) saying that, not the dude who says a team sucks after they lose a game. Seattle was peaking in the 2nd half of the season and Arizona was considered the favorite to win it all- probably because they were the most well rounded team with no major weaknesses. The Panthers could not have done anything more except dominate- which they did. This team is 22-2 in their last 24 games. Very hard to do in the NFL. Denver's 2nd half was not that impressive, but their D kept them in many games. And though Seattle came back in the 2nd half of their playoff game with Carolina, I think the Carolina coaches learned their lesson and won't get too conservative offensively or defensively as evidenced by the crushing they gave the Cardinals in their 2nd half.
5) Denver's defense is better, but it's not a huge edge. Mostly because their secondary is better. But I think Carolina's potent offense negates that edge. And Carolina's defense works hard at getting turnovers, which they are succeeding at. Carolina's D has an easier job going against this Bronco offense, so overall, I like Carolina when they have the ball better than Denver with the ball.
6) Do people hate Cam Newton so much that they can't EVER lay a bet on the Panthers? His celebrations are only annoying because QBs are supposed to celebrate with more dignity- like a fist pump or throwing their hands up in some way. Okay, so Cam celebrates like a wide receiver. He looks like an ass out there, but I can live with it as long as he's winning and I have money on Carolina. Besides, as Cam says," He's having fun." And on that subject, I also like how Carolina plays "loose". They do look like they're having fun, and I think that could eliminate some of the nervousness in such big games.
* Perhaps others think Ron Rivera is a mediocre coach. Maybe he is, but right now this team of his is….
7) Peaking. Just my opinion(but it seems obvious) that Carolina has upped their game in the playoffs. They also upped their game at times during the season, winning 8 games by 10 or more points. And since they have won so easily their first 2 playoff games, have we seen the entire Panther playbook out there? I don't think so. As much as I like the Bronco defense, this could be another factor that negates some of their effectiveness.
8) Is the NFC a better conference at the top? 3 of the top 4 teams favored to win the SB were NFC teams. Just my eye-test again, but I would favor more of the eliminated NFC playoff teams over the eliminated AFC teams. Of course the AFC teams seemed to have more injuries. And the lower tier NFC teams are an ugly bunch.
I know many would like to see a storybook ending with classy Peyton Manning going out with a SB win, but this VERY good Panther team doesn't care one whit about that. And storybook endings don't often work out if you remember: a) the Giants knocking off the perfect season Pats back in 2007 b) A few years later, the Pats get revenge on the Giants-NOT c) Wasn't Peyton going out with a SB win two years ago when Seattle embarrassed Denver? d) Seattle was poised to win a 2nd consecutive SB last year(which is becoming harder to do). Another storybook with an unhappy ending.
This year, the disliked QB wins over the one of the greatest. It's more evidence of the changing of the game with mobile QBs that can also pass. And in this game, it'll be a huge edge that should help Carolina win(and cover).
