The Economy is Not That Bad

[chrishansen]

am i one of the few if not the only one who thinks the economy is not that bad. i am about tired of this crap. yes ppl are losing jobs, they always have and always will.

i have had a feeling since this war was started that the economy would hit a boom several years after it. i think obama will get alot of credit for this and i am a fan of this guy and am glad to see him elected. but i think the economy boom will be because of what happened several years before he was in office.

the thing is that so many ppl keep talking about the economy and how bad it is. yet i see jobs everywhere. i cant notice a difference in anything that i purchase or any activities that i cant do anymore. over time the price of things will always go up. and i dont make shit for a living.

i would like to hear some thoughts on why the economy is bad, and lets keep it friendly

congrats to obama today

 

[rnorris1]

Businesses closing after weathering previous recessions and even the Great Depression. Unemployment almost doubling in the last 8 years for the US. A mere 4 years ago people were having a stroke over having to pay 4 billion to help after Katrina, now it's "700 billion here...350 billion there" with little or not oversight.

A yearly deficit which is greater than the actual debt was just a few decades ago.

Speaking of unemployment, if the same calculations and metrics were used today as they were back in the 30's, the actual current unemployment rate is in the 15-18% range.

 

[cdsmoney]

Businesses closing after weathering previous recessions and even the Great Depression. Unemployment almost doubling in the last 8 years for the US. A mere 4 years ago people were having a stroke over having to pay 4 billion to help after Katrina, now it's "700 billion here...350 billion there" with little or not oversight.

A yearly deficit which is greater than the actual debt was just a few decades ago.

Speaking of unemployment, if the same calculations and metrics were used today as they were back in the 30's, the actual current unemployment rate is in the 15-18% range.

Great point you raise here. Shows the true "value" of statistics - they can change to paint any picture the powers in be want them to.

 

[rolltide]

sorry chris but it's quite bad, certainly the worst in my nearly 4 decades on this planet.

My business is particularly tied into the market conditions and unemployment and the boom of 2007 and 2008 came to a halt around 10/10/2008 with no end in sight. My optimistic prediction is March 1 to begin a turnaround but could be at least another quarter beyond that

 

[Willie99]

1979-1982

unemployment 10% +
interest rates 14% +
inflation 10% +

today's economy is not the worse in 40 or more years, not even close

our unemployment rates are still lower than most of the civilized world when their economies are strong (for them)

but there is more fear and panic than I've ever seen, the molding of minds

 

[RobFunk]

1979-1982

unemployment 10% +
interest rates 14% +
inflation 10% +

today's economy is not the worse in 40 or more years, not even close

our unemployment rates are still lower than most of the civilized world when their economies are strong (for them)

but there is more fear and panic than I've ever seen, the molding of minds

OK true, but when you get used to things being a certain way, it is fair to have some concern when things take a significant turn for the worse. No?

I am sure you have seen the threads about people getting laid off / asked to take a paycut or getting a good chunk of their 401k wiped out.

 

[tiznow]

1979-1982

unemployment 10% +
interest rates 14% +
inflation 10% +

today's economy is not the worse in 40 or more years, not even close

our unemployment rates are still lower than most of the civilized world when their economies are strong (for them)

but there is more fear and panic than I've ever seen, the molding of minds

many people would love interest rates to be that high so they'd get something to hoard their cash

the inflationary monster isn't that hard to slay.....

the deflationary monster on the other hand is when the word depression starts seeping in like in the 30s....and is a tough dragon to slay once the ball gets rolling down the hill......

UE lags.....it'll peak out at the end of this downturn

plus the way they calculate them today is hogwash to begin with

they don't include people who have given up looking for a job

 

[Willie99]

OK true, but when you get used to things being a certain way, it is fair to have some concern when things take a significant turn for the worse. No?

I am sure you have seen the threads about people getting laid off / asked to take a paycut or getting a good chunk of their 401k wiped out.

absolutely, and I'm not pretending things are great. What I am saying is stay balanced, we've been through all of this before, many times over.

I'm telling people to lay off people and / or reduce salaries, I know what's real.

 

[RobFunk]

Tiznow, speaking of inflation did you see Zimbabwe just introduced a 1 trillion note? (worth about $300 USD)

That should last them about a month.

http://www.theprovince.com/news/story.html?id=1190028

 

[fletchisrhsm]

Willie, put down the pipe!!!

 

[JETE]

I guess it depends if your out of work or not.

Not that bad if your working,huh?

 

[koidog]

I agree it's not that bad. Problem is all the negative news is helping keep it "down".

 

[Creeg]

I agree it's not that bad. Problem is all the negative news is helping keep it "down".

you guys obviously dont work in the financial sector.

 

[TheRightSide]

you guys obviously dont work in the financial sector.

Or the car business.

 

[Seymour]

Down here in Miami the economy is bad - it is driving my tourism and real estate - the only real estate action at all is bottom feeding and that is just starting - and when I was on Ocean Drive all the restaurants were offering 2/1 drinks which in unheard of - I think I had 2 sales in 2008 - I have a house in Florida City that I finally got my title clear to - it used to be worth about 200 - I was told I could get 80 real quick if I wanted to move it - I said no thanks - I rent it and wait - I call brokers all the time - brokers that made real money with me - they rarely call me back - I'm grateful I sold alot over the years but the economy is bad in South Florida but this is also ground zero for the real estate bust

 

[rolltide]

willie, we did not give away trillions of dollars to dead companies in the early 80's with the taxpayer footing the bill. this is worse no matter what #'s you want to throw out there to make it all seem ok. There was also not a massive housing bubble that burst in the most populous areas of the country

the two biggest things unemployment rates do not include are:
1- folks whose benefits have run out and no longer collect a check yet are still unemployed
2- folks working a job far below what their previous role was, like the man at the verizon wireless store at the mall who owned his own mortage company for 20 years and is now pimping cell phones for 30k

 

[fletchisrhsm]

willie, we did not give away trillions of dollars to dead companies in the early 80's with the taxpayer footing the bill. this is worse no matter what #'s you want to throw out there to make it all seem ok. There was also not a massive housing bubble that burst in the most populous areas of the country

the two biggest things unemployment rates do not include are:
1- folks whose benefits have run out and no longer collect a check yet are still unemployed
2- folks working a job far below what their previous role was, like the man at the verizon wireless store at the mall who owned his own mortage company for 20 years and is now pimping cell phones for 30k

Good shit. But Wullie is optimistic as they come. GL trying to get reality to spurn in that Mellon of his. :drink:

 

[MightyGinseng]

The entire financial system of the country nearly collapsed twice so far. I'd say thats pretty bad.

 

[tiznow]

I'm telling people to lay off people and / or reduce salaries, I know what's real.

your participating in that self fulfilling prophecy bullshit my man

:nono5:

 

[tiznow]

The entire financial system of the world nearly collapsed twice so far. I'd say thats pretty bad.

exactly

bottom line "this time is different" due to this very fact

the 80s banking shit is minimal compared to this

this is 30s type shit thus we probably heading to a 30s type environment

also i modified you post from country to world :toast:

recessions hit different areas we had a tech bubble while the asians had a currency crises

depressions are global affairs