The dumbest line I ever saw and some Vegas chat with an oddsmaker.

[C-Gold]

So I just come back from Vegas and I spent my fair share of time at the sportsbooks lineshopping. It looks like the MGM keeps the same lines for all of their books so you have to look at different ownership.

Anyway, I see an NFL futures line that makes no sense.

Chicago Bears 6/1

Are you freakng kidding me? A weak team brings in Jay Cutler and now all of a sudden they are the #2 favorite to win the super bowl? Not San Diego and a loaded roster, not the NY Giants team that won the NFC, not Philly, not the super bowl champ Steelers... but the Bears?

What a joke. When the Jets brough in Favre, I wished I could "short" the Jets, and I'd love to take the opposite bet and I'd lay heavy heavy chalk that the Bears and their new QB will NOT win the SB. What kinds of dumbasses would make that bet?





Also, I was talking with the oddsmakers themselves and the one team the guy actually liked is Baltimore. He actually mentioned Flacco? I don't like Flacco. I also am not sure how well the defense will be after losing key parts and their coordinator. Yeah, they should be alright but I don't like coaching change.

Anyway, just thought I'd pass that along.

 

[billbeater]

those "sharp" oddsmakers like defense, thats all...
injuries can screw futures up in a heartbeat, not so worth playing, but they can give you good value as in something to root for and not having to make alot of other bets.
im with you, if you could take these bets and offer up to even 10-1, you are a winner. cutler would choke in the big game anyhow...

GL

 

[C-Gold]

We started talking public vs sharp and the guy said that most of the bet on teams were " good teams".


Then he said look at the bears... I mean, do they really deserve to be 6/1. Looks like Chicago money throwing their money away trying to support the team.


The other guy I think was the manager manager and I don't feel like he was as sharp. He mentioned Baltimore and that young kid "pitcher" Flacco? What, the guy that completes 8 passes per game?

Yeah I like defense too, and Baltimore at 15-1 might not be bad, but they did just lose Rex Ryan, and some key cogs on defense.

I was telling them I'm not finished with my HW but that I like Green Bay and Houston and the Sharp agreed that Aaron Rodgers did have a very good year last year...

Interesting conversation, nice talking about setting the lines... " do they REALLY want 50% of the action on each side"??? Is there such thing as sucker bets... etc. etc. etc.

It was worth it talking to the managers...

 

[Nick.Papagiorgio]

Anyway, I see an NFL futures line that makes no sense.

Chicago Bears 6/1

yeah that line makes no sense at all? :think2:
i am a bears fan and those are no where near good enough odds

but watch the bears go all the way @)

 

[BigdaddyQH]

I talk to many of these guys, and their opinions often differ with the line because the line is a combiation of indgredeints, one being the publics perception of the teams. When the Bears first got Cutler, the line dropped like a rock, though I never saw it down to 6/1. Right now the line is anywheres between 20 and 30 to 1, depending on your book. I know of no book that is 6/1.

 

[C-Gold]

I saw it with my own eyes.

When teams make a big signing, the public bet that line down.

 

[BigdaddyQH]

I saw it with my own eyes.

When teams make a big signing, the public bet that line down.

Were you there right after the signing? I have a little side business and I would love to prove that the line is +600. You say this was at the MGM Grand, correct? That would make it a MGM/Mirage line and it should be the same at the Mirage, and all the other properties that MGM owns. Thanks for the info. I'll check it out.

 

[C-Gold]

I think it was either at TI or the Wynn.


but the more I think about it, maybe it was just to win the NFC conference championship. I don't see how that line could possibly be right, but even the oddsmaker thought the Bears line was the worst line on the entire book.

It had to be to win the NFC Championship right? They couldn't make the line that cheap, but I am pretty sure I saw it and almost choaked on a chicken bone. Either way that line is a joke.

 

[DesertDevil]

Future odds vary greatly with SOME teams from Vegas book to Vegas Book.

For example, the Ravens are 12-1 at all Leroy's books. But they are 22-1 at Planet Hollywood.

The Bears are anywhere from 18-1 to 12-1 from what I saw.

 

[Huego]

I think it was either at TI or the Wynn.


but the more I think about it, maybe it was just to win the NFC conference championship. I don't see how that line could possibly be right, but even the oddsmaker thought the Bears line was the worst line on the entire book.

It had to be to win the NFC Championship right? They couldn't make the line that cheap, but I am pretty sure I saw it and almost choaked on a chicken bone. Either way that line is a joke.

it's to win the nfc. i was in vegas couple weeks ago and saw that line.

i believe it was 12/1 to win the superbowl at Venetian.

 

[BigdaddyQH]

That makes more sense. It is still very short, because every line I see now is from 10 to 20/1. ASWildcat said, these lines vary greatly because they are not put out by the LVSC, like the weekly lines are. They really vary widely on offshore books, who do not have the kind of resources to handle a major wager on this type of bet.

 

[RunLeeRun]

It was most certainly the NFC. Bigdaddy is right they do vary greatly. I've seen Bears SB odds +28 to +18 on the bigger name offshores, as for the NFC it is around +12 to +8. +6 looks to be a little bit low even for the NFC Title

 

[C-Gold]

+600 even for the title game is a joke. They didn't even make the playoffs last year... How often does a team bring in a new young qb and then go to the super bowl...

Lines do vary and I suggest shopping, I suggest everybody keep money at 2 books, that way even during the season you can try and get the best prices on your bets.