Adding for 3/5th Unit: SDSU vs ULL Under 63 (-104 5D)
Gonna' have to go against the steam on this one. Both teams do have favorable advantages with their run offenses, but that's about it for factors helping the Over. Both teams rate to have somewhat below average success in the passing game. Neither team plays fast on offense. Both teams run the ball almost 60% of their plays. Semi-slow teams running the ball a lot eats clock, obviously.
Gonna' have to go against the steam on this one. Both teams do have favorable advantages with their run offenses, but that's about it for factors helping the Over. Both teams rate to have somewhat below average success in the passing game. Neither team plays fast on offense. Both teams run the ball almost 60% of their plays. Semi-slow teams running the ball a lot eats clock, obviously.
Thx Memphy.
Couple of little action plays to take advantage of key numbers.
1/2 unit each: Southern Alabama team total Under 29 (-110 5D) & Bowling Green team total Under 24.5 (-105 BOL)
Both teams have slowed down the offensive pace in the second half of the season, SOAL especially. BGSU is still playing pretty fast, but are 2-3 seconds slower than the 18 seconds per play they were running a few games into the season. BGSU has had major quarterback issues. SOAL gets a small bump to their passing projections because QB Brandon Bridge missed several games this season, and he's statistically their best QB both passing and running, by far. I was thinking about putting a play in on SOAL, but now the line is too high.
Couple of little action plays to take advantage of key numbers.
1/2 unit each: Southern Alabama team total Under 29 (-110 5D) & Bowling Green team total Under 24.5 (-105 BOL)
Both teams have slowed down the offensive pace in the second half of the season, SOAL especially. BGSU is still playing pretty fast, but are 2-3 seconds slower than the 18 seconds per play they were running a few games into the season. BGSU has had major quarterback issues. SOAL gets a small bump to their passing projections because QB Brandon Bridge missed several games this season, and he's statistically their best QB both passing and running, by far. I was thinking about putting a play in on SOAL, but now the line is too high.
Yeah, CSU looks like they'll be my first bowl loss this year. I was worried about the large gap in strength of schedule coming into this game. And the coach loss. If I recall, not many bowl games had as big of a gap in strength of schedule as this one. Utah's pass defense was so bad in their last two games, though. Didn't love it when I played it in spite of line value. Looks like a sharp trap so far, the way we all got down on the good number and pushed it under 3, lol.
Right now I have a play on BYU.
Adding for 1/2 Unit: Memphis team total Under 28.5
Adding for 1 Unit: BYU team total Over 27
BYU held to less than 27 points only twice this season -- once in the game where they lost starting QB Hill to injury versus USU, and the second in the following game in QB Stewart's first full start versus a tough UCF defense on the road. They did get to at least 20 points in both those games despite. Memphis the best defense they've played in a while, but that's why it's gambling.
