Bad day yesterday. Because of (hopeful) improvements to my spreadsheet mid-week I ended up with many positions that I ended up not liking after the changes. Not surprisingly, I lost the majority of those coin flip games, lol. Top plays on totals did well, top plays on sides did not. Wisconsin had the cover for most of the game, but their defense couldn't get it down against an Iowa offense whose QB ran well and made some really nice throws. Marshall just did a terrible job at converting their yards to points. Total yards were in the ballpark of a cover. I needed 3 points in the 4th quarter of the FRES/NEV game to still be a fractional winner on the season. I got 2 points on a safety, that's it. So down a unit on the year. Obviously pretty frustrating to start off like gangbusters jumping in mid-season only to have 2 very bad weeks in the span of 3 to wipe it out. The reality is this, I'm a good line maker, but I've got to get better at narrowing down the plays and using additional metrics to filter the plays. This will be the first week where I'm not going to load up against the opening lines right away (I say that now...lol). I'm only going to jump on lines early that have good value and that I think will also be popular with all bettors. I beat the NFL pretty solidly for 7 of 8 years, I think. The only year I wasn't ahead I was a very small loser. This is only my 3rd season of college football. While my line-making transition and improvements have done well at predicting market moves, largely, there are still deficiencies. Maybe this is just a down year for sharps who beat the market, I can't imagine sharps are having a good year based on line movement and the way the games have gone. Later in the week line movement games have done better. Sometimes I was already on that side, sometimes I wasnt.
And so I sit and wait for the openers about to hit. I've lost some battles this year, but in the 15+ year war I'm way ahead. Sometimes you have to put that in perspective to maintain a good attitude going forward. I'll still be putting in the work.
And so I sit and wait for the openers about to hit. I've lost some battles this year, but in the 15+ year war I'm way ahead. Sometimes you have to put that in perspective to maintain a good attitude going forward. I'll still be putting in the work.
