The Cruncher's NCAA 2014 Bowl Games Thread

[thecruncher]

1 Unit: BSU vs ARIZ Under 69

Neither team has had a quality run or passing performance against a top 20 defense, while they've both had poor offensive performances against a bad defense at some point during the season. At almost 70 points you're saying that both teams are going to score on the majority of their possessions, and I just don't see that happening here. Arizona plays fast, but they've had inconsistent and injured QB play. Their offense is really not that great. BSU's offense ranks higher, but they haven't exactly faced a murderer's row of defenses.

Arizona's pass defense has been much better the second half of the season. I think Boise's best match up will be running the ball, which is what they like to do predominantly, anyway. It is probably Arizona's best match up offensively as well. Both sides running helps the Under, obviously.

 

[thecruncher]

1 Unit: MISS vs TCU Over 56

Here we have an Under team versus an Over team. Some stats to consider: In every game where TCU's opponent has scored 10+ points, the game has gone Over 56 (1-3 in games where the opponent hasn't). Mississippi will score more than 10 points in this game. Ole Miss has only had a couple of games go Over this number this season, but playing in the SEC that's not THAT surprising. They've arguably only played a couple of Overcentric teams this year in Auburn (61 points) and TA&M (55 points). In Ole Miss' last game there were only 48 points scored, but they and MSST combined for almost 1000 yards of offense. Granted, Bo Wallace completed a really low % of his passes, but MSST has a somewhat better pass defense than TCU. TCU plays faster than anyone MISS has faced this season. Both teams like to pass a lot. Both teams will have their best offensive match ups with the passing game. Ole Miss' pass defense has been pretty pedestrian the second half of the season, below average really. I'll probably be putting a small play on TCU at some point as well, because of MISS' fading pass defense, and figuring TCU will come into this game super pissed about getting bumped from the playoff.

 

[thecruncher]

1 Unit: MSU +1.5 vs BAY

MSU the more complete team. Both of their losses very quality losses to Oregon and Ohio State. That being said...they don't have any really quality wins, though. But back to those losses...lol. They statistically played well in those games, especially offensively. They just couldn't hang with Oregon in the 4th quarter, and JT Barrett was just making sick throws all over the place, just really unrepeatable type throws, from what I remember watching. Baylor's best win was against TCU, but that really because TCU surrendered a 21 (or so) point lead after QB Boykin injured his wrist in the 2nd half and TCU failed to score on every drive as they previously had been doing. Baylor had a good win against Texas before Texas figured itself out. Baylor's most impressive win, honestly, was against Kansas State last night. Petty had a very good game against a decent KSU pass defense. MSU has a better pass defense. Kansas State has been very one-dimensional lately, being unable to run the ball. I projected Kansas State to pass for slightly better than 10 yards per pass against Baylor and it ended up being something like 11.1 per pass. For some odd reason KSU ran a lot more than they passed -- I'm hoping it was because they had a lot of short yardage downs. I think Waters only had 5 incompletions all night.

 

[thecruncher]

1 Unit: FSU vs ORE Over 71

How can this be anything other than a shoot out? The offenses have all the advantages in this one. Oregon's pass defense has been very good their last few games, but none of those opponents have had an above average pass game, certainly nothing on FSU's level. Both teams have offensive balance, as well, and they will certainly take what the defense gives them.

 

[thecruncher]

3/5th Unit: MSST vs GT Over 59.5

Both teams have better offenses than defenses.

 

[thecruncher]

3/5th Unit: OSU vs ALA Over 57.5

Both teams have balanced offenses. Cardale proved he's not much of a drop off. Alabama does have my #1 rated defense, but my "Best and Worst Against" statistics show that both teams have had their best performances offensively this season.

 

[thecruncher]

1 Unit: GT +7 vs MSST

Spreadsheet really likes GT again (for many weeks running, and for good covering reasons). All they do is cover. These teams are statistically not that far apart.

 

[Addicted2quack]

I agree with everything on here except GT+7.... The only reason I'm hesitant with that play is because the triple option is much less effective when a team has a bye week to prepare for it, let alone 2-3 weeks. Miss state has a big physical defense, they may not be the smartest, but they should be able to contain this triple option, and in return I think they score fairly easily

 

[thecruncher]

GT has strong value on straight statistics, but MSST has a strong advantage when looking at my new Best and Worst metrics. I almost didn't play GT, and then I almost played them for less than a unit. But given the fact that they've beaten Georgia and played FSU to a standstill, basically, in their last two, led me to pull the trigger. And yes, I don't think GT will stop MSST, I'm banking on GT keeping up.

 

[thecruncher]

2 Units: NIU vs MRSH Over 61.5

Set up some middle action here.

 

[thecruncher]

3/5TH Unit: WASH -5 vs OKST

 

[thecruncher]

1 Unit: TEX vs ARK Under 45.5

 

[BigdaddyQH]

Do you have any idea what is riding on the Baylor-Michigan State game, and to a bit of a lesser extent, the TCU-Ole Miss game? I highly doubt it, so pay attention and learn something. All the rest of the B.S. you want to consider takes a back seat to this. If Baylor wins, then the Committee is left looking foolish for leaving them out, especially if someone gets blown out in the Rose or Sugar Bowls. If Baylor loses, then the Committee looks like geniuses. The same holds true to a lesser degree for TCU. How badly do you think that the two Big 12 teams want to win these two games?

 

[thecruncher]

1 Unit: ARMY vs NAVY Over 59

1/2 Unit: NAVY -15

 

[thecruncher]

1 Unit: MIA pick vs SCAR

3/5 Unit: MIA vs SCAR Over 59.5

 

[thecruncher]

1 Unit: LT -4.5 vs ILL

 

[thecruncher]

3/5th Unit: BYU pick vs MEM

 

[thecruncher]

1.5 Units: TOL pick vs ARST

 

[thecruncher]

1.5 Units: NCST +3 vs UCF (-115)

 

[thecruncher]

3/5th Unit each:

BC -2.5 vs PSU (-115)
BC vs PSU Under 39