The Bottom Line>> Have To Be Smart About The Plays You Make.. ~By System Smitty Ryann Jr. J.J. Bascus NFL Analyst~

[MR.HARRYtheHAT]

The bottom line is that you have to be smart about the plays you make.Be smart,do your homework and have fun and remember that you will not become a millionaire in one night betting on sports.Those are the exact kind of egomaniacs that bookies are hoping to attract. Many people claim that what they have to offer is guaranteed to make you money in sports betting, all based on previous results. In truth,even the most successful sports bettors and the best systems experience their share of failure.To put it another way,your hit rate doesn't reflect your chances of winning money. It simply reflects how many wagers you win relative to how many wagers you place.One of the mistakes many casual sports bettors make is putting too much weight on the previous week's games as well as past results. Winning a high percentage of your wagers doesn't necessarily equate to making money. It isn't the number of predictions you get right which determines your success, it's the relative quality of your predictions. You want to keep your risk to a minimum as much as possible when it comes to betting on NFL football. Everyone you talk to seems to think that they have the best football betting system? However J.J. Bascus power rating is 70% true.The best that can be done is to be prepared with the best information available is all about his power rating Rx members. Tracking a team's performance over the previous five games, if possible, is a good way to get more quality information on what a team is capable of doing week in and week out. Being successful betting on football is possible, but only if you have the best information available. Last season on this forum with our picks using J.J. Bascus power rating,System Smity Ryann II analysis on game percentage and late Bob Martins money bet strategy we as group were in 65%win average of the regular season and 65% wild card,& playoffs and divisional games average.

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System Smitty Ryann Jr. J.J. Bascus NFL Analyst & Being With Our Crew

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OurCrew

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J.J. Bascus [Reno NV.//// System Smity Ryann II[ Las Vegas N.V./// Mr.HarryTheHat[ Las Vegas N.V./// Back Room Benny The Jew [ Brooklyn N.Y./// Sammy Sea Way [ Boston Mass] ///.Bee Bee Black widow [ Henderson N.V.]/// Little Bobby Lancer[ St. Paul Minnesota ] Angelo[ Pee-Wee] Moretti [Cicero Chicago] Guest Handicapper

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Its also my pleasure,J.J.Bascus power rating and the crew for posting our picks and bets on the number one sports forum RX exclusively

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Mr.Hårr¥THëHÄT

 

[3pointdog]

All true Harry...thanks for the reminder...

 

[MR.HARRYtheHAT]

All true Harry...thanks for the reminder...

Good Luck In The Up-Coming NFL Season 3pointdog

 

[MR.HARRYtheHAT]

A number of sports gamblers, both beginners and veterans, fail to understand the true meaning of the point spread and the thought process that goes behind the making of the spread for each game. The sportsbooks are aware that the so-called wise guys (smart bettors) are going to wager more money on the average than a typical bettor, so the point spread is created with trying to beat the wise guys. If a sportsbook has the wise guys on one team and the general public betting on the other side, they typically will be rooting for the public, with the knowledge that the public bettors are more likely to give back their winnings on another game. The next time you see a point spread, remember the person taking the bet doesn't necessarily believe the favored team is that many points better than the underdog, but they do think the point spread will generate an equal amount of money wagered on both teams. The point spread isn't designed to be a true representation of how much better one team is than another, but is designed to attract an equal amount of money on both teams, so that the sportsbooks are guaranteed a profit. A rule of thought "follow the money" The most important thing that I learned as a streetwise Kid growing up in Vegas is information[ reach out to ever body in your circle of influence in sports betting.

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System Smitty Ryann Jr. J.J. Bascus NFL Analyst & Being With Our Crew

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~OurCrew~

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J.J. Bascus [Reno NV.//// System Smity Ryann II[ Las Vegas N.V./// Mr.HarryTheHat[ Las Vegas N.V./// Back Room Benny The Jew [ Brooklyn N.Y./// Sammy Sea Way [ Boston Mass] ///.Bee Bee Black widow [ Henderson N.V.]/// Little Bobby Lancer[ St. Paul Minnesota ] Angelo[ Pee-Wee] Moretti [Cicero Chicago] Guest Handicapper

 

[MR.HARRYtheHAT]

Once oddsmakers post the opening line, sharps and recreational bettor action will move the line in one direction or the other throughout the week. Oddsmakers may use formulas, simulations or other statistics based programs to help them create these numbers, in addition to personal observations. However, one must remember that at the core, the odds are not decided by a computer, but instead are primarily man made.Since they are still primarily decided by the human element, there will certainly be “mistakes” in the lines that will be pounced on by “sharp” bettors. These experienced high-volume handicappers shape the line movement more than any other group of bettors, including the large number of recreational bettors, who are known collectively in bookmaking circles as “squares". However, line moves can happen for a variety of reasons other than just betting action. Changes in weather, coaching decisions, such as who will start at quarterback and injury concerns are all possible reasons for a change in the line. While in some cases, bookies may be privy to insider information about an NFL game, they usually get news just as fast as everyone else but are constantly plugged into the newsfeed. Their goal is to move the odds before the masses and wiseguys act on this information. This is the late Bob Martins of NFL betting, who was best numbers man in Las Vegas history.

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System Smitty Ryann Jr. J.J. Bascus NFL Analyst & Being With Our Crew

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~OurCrew~

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J.J. Bascus [Reno NV.//// System Smity Ryann II[ Las Vegas N.V./// Mr.HarryTheHat[ Las Vegas N.V./// Back Room Benny The Jew [ Brooklyn N.Y./// Sammy Sea Way [ Boston Mass] ///.Bee Bee Black widow [ Henderson N.V.]/// Little Bobby Lancer[ St. Paul Minnesota ] Angelo[ Pee-Wee] Moretti [Cicero Chicago] Guest Handicapper

 

[Slurve~Ball]

The next time you see a point spread, remember the person taking the bet doesn't necessarily believe the favored team is that many points better than the underdog, but they do think the point spread will generate an equal amount of money wagered on both teams. The point spread isn't designed to be a true representation of how much better one team is than another, but is designed to attract an equal amount of money on both teams, so that the sportsbooks are guaranteed a profit.

That's a myth isn't it?

 

[Slurve~Ball]

<crickets chirping>

 

[Grindstone30]

Mr H you are a wealth of knowledge. My question to you is how do you know from a line movement what is sharp money and what is the square money?

Here is a game I like for Week 1>>> NO @ ARZ

POINT SPREADS

TIME

NO

ARI

08/24 11:11 AM	+3 -125	-3 +113
08/21 02:44 PM	+3 -119	-3 +108
08/20 05:50 PM	+3 -114	-3 +103
08/17 10:54 AM	+3 -110	-3 +100
06/21 02:47 PM	+2½ +112	-2½ -124
06/04 11:29 AM	+2½ +110	-2½ -121
05/15 01:53 PM	+2½ +106	-2½ -117

 

[jgm4661]

That's a myth isn't it?

Apparently not. How else do you explain historically the %'s of Fav/Dog, Away/home etc all ~ 50/50%? That isn't by accident.

 

[Slurve~Ball]

Apparently not. How else do you explain historically the %'s of Fav/Dog, Away/home etc all ~ 50/50%? That isn't by accident.

Not sure I understand what your saying. Roughly 50% of teams are favs and 50% are dogs? And about 50% home and 50% away?

 

[powerz]

That's a myth isn't it?

It is not so much a myth but their are outliers to the that opinion.

Have you heard of Paretos Law - or the rule of 80/20?

https://www.projectsmart.co.uk/pareto-analysis-step-by-step.php

There are games week in and week out 20% of them in fact that the book does take a stand on, and will likely not move the line even when the money comes in the other way.

The best example I can give of this was the 2014 super bowl, Denver was favored by -1 and over 80% of the betting Public and most likely the Money was on the Broncos. Peyton Manning vs A rookie QB how could they lose?
Well they did and badly because the odds maker knew Seattle had the better Defense and the better run game which is what normally wins football games, even in a pass happy league. There was no need for them to shift the line.

Here are some other thoughts - The Fav wins the game but does not cover roughly 19% of the time Surprised? That stat probably kills a lot of bets, not only on Favs -whatever but Dogs on the ML
Here is the key - Each week there are teams that books are rooting for because they have a lop sided handle - both the public and the smart money is one side, because all the 5 key handicapping indicators (stats, situation, trends, public perception & H2H results) are showing that one side. Yet for some reason the line does not look right or it is slightly off the PR - That is when you attack and for goodness sake make sure you are on the side of the Book.

Enjoy the upcoming season boys and remember if it looks to good to be true it probably is.

Powerz

 

[MR.HARRYtheHAT]

Grindstone30;11195480]Mr H you are a wealth of knowledge. My question to you is how do you know from a line movement what is sharp money conpaired to what is the square money? My question to you is how do you know from a line movement what is sharp money and what is the square money?

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Grindstone30, I had to reach out System Smity Ryann II, J.J. Bascus NFL Analyst to answer your question my friend. He e-mailed reply which I had to copy and post to you my friend. System Smity Ryann II answer to you "Grindstone30" is Line movement can happen for a number of reasons including injuries and weather. Square bettors are usually looking to wager on favorites, while sharp bettors wait for the price on an underdog to rise to get that inflated number they are looking for. On the contrary, just because you lose doesn’t mean you’re a square, and just because you win doesn’t mean that you aren’t a square. Square bettors though, are typically the ones that believe that they should be able to win 70% or 80% of their games. Of course, we know that in the long run, that’s a legitimate impossibility, as even the best of bettors only win in the mid-to high-50%s of their games, and they make awesome money doing so. As to say the best way to find out where sharp money is would be to follow, Square bettors usually looking to wager on favorites, while sharp bettors wait for the price on an underdog to rise to get that inflated number they are looking for. As say the best way to find out where sharp money is would be to follow reverse line movements. If 80% of the bets have been placed on the Giants -7 vs Lions as a example Grindstone30 and the line has dropped to -6 or maybe -5 1/2. You know that the sharp money is on the underdog Lions. You would expect that the line would go to Giants -5 or -5 1/2 or more with 80% of the bets in, but a couple of large wagers have obviously been thrown in on the Lions +7 to +6 or +5 1/2 to move the line the other way.
Line movement that shifts against public betting percentages is typically an excellent indicator of smart or “wise guy” money. Many of these sharp bettors have developed systems that they use to set their own line, and if that line is a few points off of the actual number, they look to bet it up big-time. Always look at the opening lines early in the week and look at the movement through out the week. This is very important Grindstone30 look at the money line movement, follow the money,lines move with money!!! Never !! Never!! bet the opening line in the beginning of the week Grindstone30. J.J Bascus power rating PWK RK& %ECCO}}}/% is excellent indicator, was in 66% range last year of NFL season of smart or“wise guy” money. Walk softly and utilize all your past performance,determining your picks is key here."Patience is a virtue"-do not jump in with a bet and wait for the movement in the line.... Grindstone30 I hoped that answered your question my friend.Obviously, most bettors want to wager on several games every week. However, if you can be disciplined and simply follow these reverse line movements throughout the season, I have no doubt you will come out ahead every year. Why would you want to be a square when you can simply follow the smart money each week?

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System Smitty Ryann Jr.
PS.. Any friend of HarryTheHats is a friend of mine Grindstone30...What few friends HarryTheHat has?//LOL!!!LOL!!! LOL!!

 

[jgm4661]

Not sure I understand what your saying. Roughly 50% of teams are favs and 50% are dogs? And about 50% home and 50% away?

My pt was they are setting the lines pretty accurately to get 50/50 on either side. Given those historic 50/50 ratios it suggests there is no apparent adv to either side generally.

 

[919]

Good stuff

 

[919]

A number of sports gamblers, both beginners and veterans, fail to understand the true meaning of the point spread and the thought process that goes behind the making of the spread for each game. The sportsbooks are aware that the so-called wise guys (smart bettors) are going to wager more money on the average than a typical bettor, so the point spread is created with trying to beat the wise guys. If a sportsbook has the wise guys on one team and the general public betting on the other side, they typically will be rooting for the public, with the knowledge that the public bettors are more likely to give back their winnings on another game. The next time you see a point spread, remember the person taking the bet doesn't necessarily believe the favored team is that many points better than the underdog, but they do think the point spread will generate an equal amount of money wagered on both teams. The point spread isn't designed to be a true representation of how much better one team is than another, but is designed to attract an equal amount of money on both teams, so that the sportsbooks are guaranteed a profit. A rule of thought "follow the money" The most important thing that I learned as a streetwise Kid growing up in Vegas is information[ reach out to ever body in your circle of influence in sports betting.

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System Smitty Ryann Jr. J.J. Bascus NFL Analyst & Being With Our Crew

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~OurCrew~

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J.J. Bascus [Reno NV.//// System Smity Ryann II[ Las Vegas N.V./// Mr.HarryTheHat[ Las Vegas N.V./// Back Room Benny The Jew [ Brooklyn N.Y./// Sammy Sea Way [ Boston Mass] ///.Bee Bee Black widow [ Henderson N.V.]/// Little Bobby Lancer[ St. Paul Minnesota ] Angelo[ Pee-Wee] Moretti [Cicero Chicago] Guest Handicapper

Yep