Biggest quarterback questions for all 32 NFL teams: Battles, contracts
ESPN PLUS $ MATERIALEvery NFL team has questions, especially this time of year, as we look ahead to what remains of the long, dry offseason to a season still more than 100 days away. Often, the most important questions are about the most important position -- quarterback. Your team has a quarterback question, whichever team it is. Some are major, such as, "Who the heck is our quarterback, anyway?" Some are more along the champagne-problem lines, such as, "What can our quarterback do to be even more awesome?"
No matter which team you root for or what its QB situation is, we came up with a question that this offseason, this coming season or both will try to answer. Here they are, in all their mid-May glory. Enjoy.
NFC EAST
Dallas Cowboys
Does Dak Prescott get a contract extension?
Prescott's contract expires after 2024. His cap number this year is a manageable $26.8 million, but next year it balloons to $59.5 million. If the Cowboys don't extend Prescott beyond 2024, they are effectively committing to carrying that cap number and making Prescott prove he deserves a new deal. Given their lack of postseason success with Dak as their QB, this path likely makes the most sense.
Thing is, Cowboys leadership has been very clear, publicly and privately, that they're all-in with Dak. They want him to be a Cowboy for his entire career, and I think it would be very surprising if they didn't do an extension this offseason that knocked down that 2024 cap number and made it clear to the world that Prescott's future in Dallas is not in question.
New York Giants
Can Daniel Jones live up to his contract, and what are the implications if he doesn't?
Paying Jones $40 million a year after a season in which he threw just 15 touchdown passes is the Giants' way of saying (A) they believe in Brian Daboll and their coaching staff and (B) they don't think they gave him nearly enough help last season at receiver and believe they will have better pass-catching options this year.
Jones gave the Giants what they needed last year, but if he's going to be making this kind of money, he has to give them more going forward. He showed toughness and grit in leading them to the playoffs as one of 2022's surprise teams. He'll still be able to use his legs to make plays and keep defenses on their heels. He just has to show more as a passer, and there will come a time when the excuses about the quality of the group around him won't be enough anymore to explain why he hasn't.
Philadelphia Eagles
Is Jalen Hurts set up to get back to the Super Bowl ... and win it this time?
Well, sure. The Eagles lost some vets on defense, but they didn't lose them all. And their past couple of drafts have been dedicated to finding replacements for guys who are aging out (or being priced out) on that side of the ball.
In terms of Hurts' side of the ball, the offensive line still looks excellent, A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert are all still there, and the running back room is deep with explosive playmakers. No, Rashaad Penny and D'Andre Swift haven't always been the healthiest guys, but the Eagles have enough backs that they should be able to get the most out of them when they are on the field. The biggest thing standing in the Eagles' way is the troubling fact that no team has won the NFC East two years in a row in 19 years. But hey, they wouldn't be the first team to make it to the Super Bowl from a wild-card spot!
Washington Commanders
Is Sam Howell really an NFL starter, and what are the implications if he isn't?*Shrug emoji?* How can anyone know this for sure? Even the people in the Commanders' building? I will say that I had a few scouts and personnel people telling me, prior to the 2022 draft, they thought Howell might turn out to be the best QB in that draft. Washington has seen enough from Howell in one year that it didn't pursue Lamar Jackson, Jimmy Garoppolo, Aaron Rodgers or any other clear upgrade at quarterback this offseason, and they didn't draft one either.
They have Jacoby Brissett in case something happens to Howell, but they're making good on their statements that Howell will open the season as the guy. He has a nice receiving corps to work with, and if the defense plays well, this is a team that can sneak up on people this year. Heck, the good vibes around the ownership change should make this a more fun and relaxed year in Washington either way. But a lot hinges on whether Howell is really ready to be an NFL starter, and again, I don't see any way anyone can know for sure whether he is.
NFC NORTH
Chicago Bears
Did the Bears do enough to improve the group around Justin Fields?
Fields took 55 sacks last year, tied with a perpetually flummoxed Russell Wilson for most in the league. Fields was hit 232 times, 21 more times than any other quarterback. His 1,143 rushing yards ranked seventh in the league -- not among quarterbacks, but among all players, regardless of position. It was all very exciting, but it's likely not sustainable, and the Bears will be better in the short term and the long term if they can help Fields develop as a passer. It will diversify and energize their offense and help preserve their franchise QB.
So after acquiring WR Chase Claypool at the trade deadline last year, they got DJ Moore from Carolina in the trade for the No. 1 pick in the draft. They signed guard Nate Davis from Tennessee in free agency and selected tackle Darnell Wright with the 10th pick in the draft. They still plan to lean a bit on a couple of the young linemen they drafted last year, and Cole Kmet emerged throughout last season as a key playmaker at tight end.
The answer to this question, in the big picture, is probably along the lines of "not quite." But Chicago has added enough pieces that Fields should have avenues to show the kind of improvement this year that leads to sustainable long-term success as long as the Bears continue to make him their priority while building out their roster.
Detroit Lions
Is Jared Goff good enough to lead the Lions to playoff success?
Detroit is the hot team this offseason. The Lions knocked the Packers out of the playoffs in Week 18 last year with a stellar prime-time effort that, they believe, announced to the world that they're ready to be much more than we're used to them being. They will open the 2023 season with a prime-time Thursday night showcase against the Super Bowl champion Chiefs. The Lions are going to be a popular pick to win the NFC North, and the way they finished the 2022 season justifies the hope.
Goff was one of the best quarterbacks in the league last year, statistically, ranking fifth in Total QBR, sixth in passing yards, seventh in yards per attempt and fifth in touchdown passes. Over the second half of the season, he threw 15 touchdown passes with no interceptions and led the Lions to a 7-2 record. This is a player who was the No. 1 pick in the draft and once played in the Super Bowl with the Rams. Under Dan Campbell and Ben Johnson's coaching, Goff leading the Lions on a playoff run would absolutely not be the most shocking thing that could happen this season.
Green Bay Packers
Is Jordan Love ready?
The main reason the Packers moved on from Aaron Rodgers is that they had finally, at long last, had enough of Aaron Rodgers. But an ancillary reason is that they picked Love in the first round three years ago and it's past time to figure out whether that was a good choice for their long-term success.
Obviously, the history of Brett Favre and Rodgers as Hall of Famers and Super Bowl champions puts a lot of pressure on Love to be an excellent NFL quarterback. For now, though, the Packers will be happy if he shows the ability to run the offense and lead the team, and can build on what they hope is some early success. There might be more mystery around the Packers than any other 2023 team. If Love turns out to be a 10-year starter, it'll be a very long time before anyone questions "The Packer Way" again.
Minnesota Vikings
How much longer for Kirk Cousins in Minnesota? And what's next for the Vikings?For the first time since he got to Minnesota, the Vikings don't have any contractual mechanism that binds them to Cousins beyond the current season. His contract voids after this season, and they'll carry a $28.5 million dead-money cap hit for him in 2024 no matter what. So, depending on what happens this year, the Vikings could re-sign Cousins, or they could move on from him. Their options are open.
Cousins will be 35 when the season starts, so there's no reason to think this will be his final year playing football. The Vikings don't have a young guy on the roster screaming for a chance, the way the Packers did. Minnesota's current GM and coaching staff inherited Cousins from their predecessors, so questions about whether he's really "their guy" are understandable. Just don't assume this is his final year in Minnesota. There is no post-Cousins plan in place for the Vikings, and depending on the way this season goes, he could (emphasis on could) end up being their best option for 2024 and beyond.
NFC SOUTH
Atlanta Falcons
Is Desmond Ridder really an NFL starter?
The Red Stallions let their 2022 third-round pick start the final four games of their lost season, and while he didn't look overwhelmed, he didn't do much that stood out, either. Like the Sam Howell situation in Washington (and, to some extent, the Jordan Love situation in Green Bay), there's really no way for anyone to know the answer to this question based on anything we've seen.
Ridder was a very good college quarterback on a loaded Cincinnati team that made the College Football Playoff two years ago. He has a lot going for him, experience winning and experience playing in big games. The Falcons' coaching staff and front office saw enough in him last year that they decided not to pursue Lamar Jackson or any other QB options this offseason, so they'll throw him into the pool and see if he can swim. If he can't, Taylor Heinicke likely has to get them safely to shore and they can look at the top of next year's draft for their real long-term solution.
Carolina Panthers
Can Bryce Young have a Joe Burrow-like effect in Carolina?
A Heisman winner and No. 1 overall pick in the draft, Burrow hit the ground running with the Bengals in 2020, had them in the Super Bowl at the end of his second season and got them to the brink of a second straight Super Bowl in his third. So yeah, that's a lot to live up to. But when you pick first in the draft and take a QB, that's the kind of effect for which you're hoping.
Burrow took one of the league's most forgettable franchises and turned it into one of the best teams in the league. The Panthers, with an owner who's impatient about winning and a newly installed veteran coaching staff that's not eager to spend its time rebuilding, believe Young has the talent, character, intellect and maturity to be their starter right away. Carolina believes it has a strong offensive line (which is where the Bengals comparisons slip a little) and good, young skill position players around him. I'm not saying there's pressure on Young to be Burrow right away. I'm saying the Panthers wouldn't be surprised if he turned out to be capable of something like that.
New Orleans Saints
Can Derek Carr be more in New Orleans than he was with the Raiders?
Carr has always seemed like a quarterback who was just sort of "good enough." As in, good enough that you don't feel a crying need to look for other options, but not quite good enough to really win with. There were flashes, sure. There was that great 2016 season when the Raiders went 12-4 and made the playoffs but Carr broke his leg right at the end of the regular season. There was the run two years ago when they got it together after the Jon Gruden firing and gave the eventual conference champion Bengals a fight in the wild-card round. But Carr never really "got there" in terms of proving himself as quarterback who could elevate a team from good to great.
Now, there are all kinds of stats that show that Carr never had a good defense, let alone a great one, while with the Raiders. And the Saints will probably have a great defense this year. So we might get to find out whether Carr was being held back in Oakland/Vegas by forces beyond his control. But if the Saints have a Raidereqsue, right-around-.500 season and Carr doesn't put up big numbers, then it'll be fair to conclude that we knew who he was all along.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Who starts?On one hand, it's understandable not to want to anoint a Tom Brady successor and weigh down a guy with that kind of pressure. On the other hand, this is a team that has made the playoffs three years in a row and the camp battle for starting QB is between Baker Mayfield and Kyle Trask. That's not overly exciting, nor is it likely to make Tampa Bay a strong contender to unseat the Eagles as NFC champs. I think it's fair to expect Mayfield to win this competition. But I also think it's fair, if the Bucs do a lot of losing over the first half of the season, to expect them to be active at the trade deadline with an eye toward college prospects Caleb Williams or Drake Maye as their starter for 2024 and beyond.
NFC WEST
Arizona Cardinals
What does the short- and long-term future hold for Kyler Murray in Arizona?
A late-season ACL tear means Murray won't see the field in the early part of the 2023 season, if at all. The Cardinals have a new GM, a new coach, a weak-looking roster and five picks in the first three rounds of next year's draft. So, you ask, could they be thinking of moving on from Murray this time next year? Well, maybe, but it won't be easy. The contract he signed with them last offseason guarantees him $35.3 million in 2024, and if he's still on the roster at the start of the 2024 league year, another $30 million in 2025 money becomes guaranteed.
On one hand, Murray should be eager to get back on the field and show his new employers he's the guy they can count on long term. On the other, the contract really does protect him in case he can't. If you had to bet on this, it's probably safer to think Murray is going to be there for a while. But until we see him on the field again, this situation will remain shrouded in mystery.
Los Angeles Rams
How much longer for Matthew Stafford? And what's next for the Rams?
The Rams will never regret the move they made to get Stafford before the 2022 season. They went all-in to win the Super Bowl, and they did it. But coming off a 5-12 season in which Stafford struggled to stay on the field, L.A. has to be looking toward the future.
The problem is Stafford's contract is a bit of an albatross. He's signed through 2026, and his $31 million 2024 salary is already fully guaranteed. The Rams would have an $86.5 million dead-money cap hit if they cut him next offseason and a $55.5 million one if they traded him. He's 35 years old, so he's not necessarily thinking retirement, and if he has a good, healthy season, maybe they can get enough in return for him to justify that hit. But the Rams could be in for a rough ride, record-wise, in the coming seasons.
And with late-round flyer Stetson Bennett the only other QB on the roster and the Rams actually armed with a first-round pick for the first time since 2016, could we be looking at the possibility of them keeping a Southern California QB in Southern California next April, when USC's Caleb Williams is expected to be among the top draft prospects?
San Francisco 49ers
Is Brock Purdy healthy? Whither Trey Lance? Can Sam Darnold still be a thing?
This could be the stiffest test yet for Kyle Shanahan's ability to win in spite of a shaky quarterback situation. Purdy and Lance are both coming off season-ending injuries. Lance is likely to be back sooner, but he still hasn't shown much, and it's possible newcomer Darnold (yes, same guy) could be the Week 1 starter.
The sense around the Niners is that Purdy would be the clear-cut starter if he were healthy, but he's not, which opens up a lot of possibilities. Can Lance finally make good on the promise the Niners saw in him when they moved up in the draft to take him third overall? Could there be a trade market for Lance? Can Darnold resurrect his career under Shanahan? Is Purdy, once healthy, really the player he was over the final couple of months last year? And how long will the rest of this roster be excellent enough to succeed with a constantly shifting QB situation?
The 49ers look like one of the best teams in the league on paper, but QB questions have sunk great-looking teams in the past. Heck, they've sunk great-looking 49er teams in the recent past.
Seattle Seahawks
Can Geno Smith do it again, and what happens if he doesn't?Smith finished seventh last season in Total QBR, eighth in passing yards and fourth in touchdown passes. His late-career revival was one of the most fun stories of the season, and he was rewarded with a nice contract extension as a result. Unlike the Daniel Jones deal in New York, Smith's extension was quite reasonable -- three years, $75 million with $27.3 million guaranteed and nothing guaranteed beyond this year. So Seattle does want to see him do it again. But they also did not use the fifth overall pick in the draft to find a long-term successor, so that signals that they believe he can.
Seattle drafted Smith a first-round wide receiver in Jaxon Smith-Njigba and spent much of the offseason building out the defense, so the Seahawks' moves indicate they believe they can support him. The way Smith played last year gives them reason to believe they can be a strong NFC contender with their roster and their coaching staff, and at age 32, Smith has some runway in front of him to continue as a successful starting QB.