The 1H Under is the best play on the board tonight

[Enfuego]

I got it at 30 but it's now down to 28 which still should be good.

1H of these big games is always a feeling out period. Not a lot of chances taken until mid to late 2Q then 2H. Teams usually just running the ball and not taking chances on turning the ball over. Alabama last night was a great example of that.

 

[Enfuego]

I read this on blankets too which is very interesting.

Teams that have 3 or less losses from the previous year and beat their opponent in that year by 21 or more are a whopping 6-33-1 ATS.
1. Teams that lose 3 games or fewer the previous year (i.e., teams contending for major bowls or the national championship and/or very good teams the previous year) that,2. Beat their current Week 1 opponent (in this case it's Notre Dame who beat Texas last year), by more than 21 points (Notre Dame crushed Texas last year 38-3 in week 1),are a whopping6-33-1 ATS

1. Teams that lose 3 games or fewer the previous year (i.e., teams contending for major bowls or the national championship and/or very good teams the previous year) that,2. Beat their current Week 1 opponent (in this case it's Notre Dame who beat Texas last year), by more than 21 points (Notre Dame crushed Texas last year 38-3 in week 1),are a whopping6
-33-1 ATS

 

[rolltide]

I read this on blankets too which is very interesting.

Teams that have 3 or less losses from the previous year and beat their opponent in that year by 21 or more are a whopping 6-33-1 ATS.

of course this makes no sense....must be a shit ton of parameters you are leaving out. Basically you are taking every team that wins 9+ games and then meeting same team in following year they beat by 3 TD in previous season.... there is, on avg, 60 of those situations/year

already this year Toledo covered after beating ark state by 30 last year and WKU covered after beating Rice by 39 last year

don't believe everything you read....

 

[Enfuego]

of course this makes no sense....must be a shit ton of parameters you are leaving out. Basically you are taking every team that wins 9+ games and then meeting same team in following year they beat by 3 TD in previous season.... there is, on avg, 60 of those situations/year

already this year Toledo covered after beating ark state by 30 last year and WKU covered after beating Rice by 39 last year

don't believe everything you read....

I don't believe anything I read but that said, I'm still on Tejas.

 

[rolltide]

so here is the real life version.

teams that won 9+ games previous season and are playing a team in game #1 that they beat last year by 21+ are 15-3 SU with 14 ATS covers with a line like tonight, less than -19. 2-0 so far this year with WKU and Toledo

P:season = season -1 and P:W and P:margin > 20.5 and PRSW > 8 and game number = 1 and line > -19 and season > 1998
SU: 15-3-0 (21.72, 83.3%) Teaser Records ATS: 14-4-0 (11.42, 77.8%) avg line: -10.3 +6: 14-3-1 (82.4%) -6: 13-5-0 (72.2%) +10: 15-3-0 (83.3%) -10: 11-6-1 (64.7%) O/U: 5-7-0 (1.67, 41.7%) avg total: 56.5 +6: 3-9-0 (25.0%) -6: 6-6-0 (50.0%) +10: 3-9-0 (25.0%) -10: 9-3-0 (75.0%)
Rushes Rush Yds Passes Comp Pass Yds TOs Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Team 41.9 194.7 33.7 22.2 287.4 1.2 8.5 10.0 7.3 15.1 37.2 Opp 33.5 99.2 33.8 19.2 227.2 2.2 2.2 6.3 4.2 4.5 15.4
Date Link Day Week Season Team Opp Site Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Line Total SUm ATSm OUm DPS DPA SUr ATSr OUr ot Sep 04, 2016 Sunday 2 2016 NOTD TEX away -4.0 54.0

 

[sdf]

welp.

 

[Enfuego]

welp.

That accepted holding penalty by Charlie Strong is beyond me.

 

[Nerdlinger]

I had the 1H under, too. My mistake was in not recognizing that both teams go no huddle full time now, which makes a big difference in the number of plays, scoring opportunities and chances for turnovers.

 

[SunDodger]

That system is missing two parameters.

Play against team must be a favorite in todays game. And, also must be a non-conference game.

It's listed in the free analysis section of a certain tout who used to be quite popular.