Full write-up on my blog, not to promote, just not going to get too in-depth in here, will just post official picks. That said - yeah, I mean, on the one hand we have a rookie QB who will probably struggle to throw it but is a serious threat of breaking off some big gains on the ground. On the other hand we have a QB that everyone is crowning, with really no reason at all to do so. I'm not saying Kevin Kolb is bad....who just can't assume that he is good....he has a small sample size of limited success at best. When you consider all the injuries the Panthers dealt with last year, other than at WR1 I think the Panthers flat out grade as the better team. Good luck today.
New Orleans Saints vs. Chicago Bears
Saints -7
O/U 47
Talk about getting no respect. The Bears go out in week 1, blow the doors off everyone's favorite Super Bowl darling the Atlanta Falcons and now find themselves grabbing a touchdown in New Orleans. How many would they be getting if they had lost to Atlanta? As I noted, I'm not big on this Bears team and seeing Atlanta rack up 4 sacks against them, even in defeat, worries me. How will their offensive line hold up against the blitz-happy Saints? Despite the blitzing the Saints didn't exactly light up the Packers o-line though. If you can block them there are yards to be had all over the place.
I know how much perceptions change after just one week of football, but it's interesting how quickly everyone hopped back on the Drew Brees bandwagon and jumped off Matt Ryan's. Wasn't the Falcons offense supposed to be dynamic this year? Are we really giving this little credit to the performance of the Chicago defense last week? I realize that when you recover all five of the fumbled balls in a game, you had some good juju working, but when you force four fumbles and sack Ryan the same amount of times it's also a sign of just how good your defense is in the first place.
The value here is squarely on the Bears. I wrote that I would prefer to avoid them and there is still one huge reason to do so: The Bears o-line/Cutler facing a team that will be coming after him nearly every play. Undecided as of yet, but this is strictly a Bears or no play in my opinion. If it turns into a play there will be more to come on why.
Detroit Lions vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Lions -9
O/U 45
The deal with this line, to me, is this - the Lions are likely winners and Vegas has hung a line of 9 to avoid people from teasing it down. That there lends itself to value on the Chiefs because I really think the line deserves to be 7 or 7.5 That said, does it make enough of a difference to play?
Well, what we have here is a classic case of a QB (Cassel) who you simply can't back on the road at this point. With a solid Detroit defense taking the field are you really going to take 9 points with a team that just lost to the Bills by 34 at home? It's pretty tough to do.
On the other end, playing big favorites in the NFL is not my favorite strategy. In particular, I don't like to play a big favorite unless I am convinced the team laying the points is one of the league's elite. To say I'm not convinced of the Lions being that is a huge understatement. They still did very little on the ground and eventually exposed a secondary that only had one good player. The Chiefs cornerbacks are still good enough on paper that I would want to avoid Detroit at all costs here.
Personally, I won't be surprised if Detroit takes them out back to the woodshed. I also wouldn't be too shocked to watch Stafford turn it over a few times, have Charles make a couple big plays and see Kansas City hanging around late with a chance to win.
New York Jets vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Jets -9
O/U 39
The point of interest here to me will be to see if the defense that just shut down Chris Johnson can do the same against a Jets team (namely Shonn Greene) that was similarly stymied against the Cowboys. Personally, I have a hard time buying into either end of that. That Jaguars defense last year was historically bad. Was Paul Posluszny all that was really needed to make for this radical change? I'm thinking it was either just a blip on the radar, or an issue in Tennessee. The Jets offensive line is much less likely to be as overwhelmed by the Jacksonville front-7 as they were with Dallas on Sunday. It's just a huge drop in class on that front. Expect the Jets to look to get Greene going early and often and that should open up things for Sanchez, but will he take advantage?
In other news, Luke McCown is probably going to struggle to move the deal on the Jets defense. You can't get this type of analysis anywhere else folks! The Jaguars are a running football team and they are coming off a decent winning effort in large part thanks to that. But keep in mind that it is my opinion that Tennessee will likely be one of the league's worst against the run this year. Follow that up with the Jets, a top-5 run defense, and well, you better really have some unheralded reason to believe in Luke McCown if you intend to back Jacksonville here.
Hard not to look at this game and see the Jets winning with relative ease. Still probably don't see enough here to lay the 9, but I would play the Jets in suicide leagues with confidence.
Buffalo Bills vs. Oakland Raiders
Bills -3.5
O/U 43
I know the recent history of these two teams probably suggests it, but doesn't that total just seem a couple points high? The Cowboys and Niners are lined at 42.5. Maybe it's just me...
While the Bills put on the performance of week 1, the Raiders in my opinion benefited from a lot of fortune.
What I see here this week is a similar matchup for the Bills. Only this time they play at home against a west-coast team, coming east, to play an early game, on a short week. Seriously, I'll tip my cap to Run Dmc but if you really liked anything about the Raiders offense last week I don't know what you were watching. Jason Campbell looked terrible, the receivers still stink and when McFadden doesn't bust it for 20+ it seem he's stuck at the line of scrimmage. I don't want to get all nutty about the Bills defense but watching them absolutely bottle up an even more dynamic runner in Jamal Charles - they need to simply reproduce last weeks defensive performance against an offense that basically could switch jerseys with the Chiefs and no one would notice. Think about it - shit-armed quarterback, explosive duel-threat RB, horrendous WR's and garbage along the o-line. Dwayne Bowe and the Chiefs o-line actually swing the balance in KC's favor to me and while I don't think we will quite see the snowball effect that we did last week at Arrowhead, I feel there is some value in Buffalo at less than 4 (and don't particularly mind them all the way up to 6).
What concerns me most with Buffalo is how they are going to handle Oakland's front-7. Those guys completely overwhelmed Denver on Monday night and Buffalo's o-line is not a strength. Don't expect Fred Jackson to repeat his success like he did last week. What you have to trust here is a solid gameplan by Chan Gailey...if he can buy some time for Fitzpatrick back there we saw just how brutal the Oakland secondary is.
Lean to the Bills and lean to the under.
Washington Redskins vs. Arizona Cardinals
Redskins -4
O/U 44
Here is a game that I absolutely refuse to bet. I will say that there is no conceivable way I could imagine laying over a FG with Washington, so gun to my head I would just take the points. I mean, are we all seriously sipping the Rex Grossman kool-aid this much already that he's laying over a FG? I know it's not like they instilled him as a touchdown favorite, but still. Unfortunately, if you, like me, were waiting for a spot to fade Grossman against a team with better cornerbacks than New York, the wait continues. In fact, this week, he might be facing the only group of corners weaker than what the Giants rolled out there last week. Don't believe me? Just ask Steve Smith and Cam Newton.
Either way here whatever team wins and moves to 2-0 will be on my radar as a possible fade. I do think an interesting thing to watch here is how well Beanie Wells can run it. Besides just being interested in seeing if Wells is finally going to live up to the hype this year, if Arizona has any type of chance to be decent this year they are going to need him to chew up clock, because even if Kolb plays well that defense is terrible.
Not sure what else I can say about this one. To me it's take the points or pass with a strong recommendation of just doing the latter unless you really love Kevin Kolb.
Baltimore Ravens vs. Tennessee Titans
Ravens -5.5
O/U 38
Tennessee out-gained Jacksonville despite the loss and really seemed to gain control of the game in the second half. The Jaguars managed to do just enough to prevent Kenny Britt from coming all the way back on them.
Baltimore's dismantling of Pittsburgh was mighty impressive. I think the final score had a lot to do with jumping out front and things snowballing though. If you were watching early on Pittsburgh was running it effectively and after falling behind, in large part to a Roethlisberger fumble, came right down the field and scored to make it 14-7. Pittsburgh then got the ball back and Roethlisberger could do nothing with it. The turning point in the game came on the next Baltimore drive. The Ravens methodically drove the ball down the field and managed to convert on all 3rd down attempts. By the time Pittsburgh got the ball back it was practically halftime. The first play of the second half was where Mendenhall got buried as he was receiving the handoff. The next play Flacco threw a touchdown and suddenly the game had spiraled out of control. Major credit to Baltimore for taking these turnovers and converting them into touchdowns on the Pittsburgh defense. I just remain a touch less than convinced that this wasn't a game that worked in their favor from the get-go.
If Hasselbeck limits turnovers, I could see how Chris Johnson and Kenny Britt could keep Tennessee in the game here. And there is good news on Johnson's health as new reports project him to be in line for 25-30 touches possibly. That bodes well for the Titans, at least this week, but I'm not sure it would give me enough confidence in Tennessee to bother with the points.
Road test for Baltimore here will be interesting to monitor. While I probably won't give him too much credit even if he does, if you're a Baltimore fan you have to be crossing your fingers hoping that Flacco can put up another performance resembling what he did to Pittsburgh last week. Never a model of consistency, it would be a small step forward for Flacco and a great sign for Baltimore overall.
Lean to the points but not convinced of it yet.
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Seattle Seahawks
Pittsburgh -14
O/U 40
You, me, Vegas, Pittsburgh, Seattle, Pete Carroll, his mother, your mother and mine all know what is going to happen here. It just comes down to whether or not you are really in the business of laying 14 points in the NFL. With no chance whatsoever of Marshawn Lynch doing anything, it comes down to whether you think the Seattle D/Special Teams can score and if you think Tavaris Jackson can do what he did this past weekend - suck for all intents and purposes, but connect on a couple big plays. This would be a good week for him to get Sidney Rice back but it doesn't look like it's going to happen.
The odd thing about the Seahawks is that defensively they played extremely well last week. And just when Tavaris got them back in the game, the special teams dropped the ball and the score in turn looks a lot more lopsided than it would have had Ted Ginn not went all Ohio State on them. As bad as Ben Roethlisberger played last week however, something tells us all that he's going to make amends for that this week. This isn't exactly Alex Smith we're dealing with.
The way I always look at these lines where you are inclined to take the favorite is this: the backdoor TD rule. Are you confident enough that the team you want to take will be covering the spread by more than a TD with 6:00 to play in the game or so. If you're not, you're kind of turning the game into a coin flip and will be constantly stressing games late and/or constantly suffering tilt-inducing losses on "backdoor BS." I just don't think I can trust Pittsburgh enough to know that they won't give up a free TD with an early turnover or something along those lines. If that happens this still probably turns into a 27-10, 31-10 type of game but the margin for error is just too small and you'll be hoping to hold off the backdoor.
Carolina Panthers vs. Green Bay Packers
Packers -10
O/U 46
Well, first off, the Carolina Panthers are going to have a hard time stopping Green Bay. Again, you can't get this analysis anywhere else...but seriously Arizona left a lot of points on the table against the Panthers defense in the first half last week. Don't expect the Packers to afford them the same fortune this week.
I'd love to come up with some kind of super-smart angle about why Carolina is a big play, but I'd be lying if I said I did. The Green Bay defense has a lot of incentive to come out guns blazing here and with Cam Newton having already made his opening statement, don't expect them to be fooled here.
Newton's week 1 was extremely interesting on so many levels. By now we have all seen the highlight of Steve Smith, with 15 yards of separation, going for 80-some yards and a score. Still, it's not every day that a QB can throw for 400+ yards in the NFL, and in a career debut it is basically unheard of. There is a fine line between adjusting for opponent strength (or lack thereof in the case of the Zona D) and crediting rare performances.
Tough game to really endorse either way, my feeling now is that the line is pretty good. Green Bay should again fill it up but I think Newton will make enough plays along the way to at the least keep the backdoor within his grasps.
Minnesota Vikings vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Vikings -3
O/U 41
In a week with a bunch of big lines that are tough to swallow, is there any game that screams stay away more than this one? I honestly can't imagine how it could get much more even than this.
On one hand McNabb infamously threw for under 40 yards last week. Despite that ADP kept Minnesota in the game. When looking at the Tampa Bay defense, I think Peterson will do his thing, but they usually look pretty stout against the run. Where you can really expose this Tampa Bay defense is where their head coach is supposed to be the foremost guru - the secondary. Aqib Talib, despite a pick-6, still got the worst of his matchup with Megatron. But don't hold that against him much, Megatron destroys almost everyone he goes against, especially when his QB actually has an NFL-caliber arm attached to his side. Talib is still one of the league's very best corners as far as I'm concerned. Unfortunately, Tampa runs into the issue where Talib basically becomes ignored and the opposing QB will pick on the rest of the guys. And the rest of those guys walk a fine line between garbage and atrocious. I could make an argument that maybe Detroit really exposed Tampa's secondary a lot more than most will because not only did they get to throw at the CB2 and CB3's, but Talib also wasn't shutting down his man as usual...which was basically the straw that broke the camels back for the Tampa defense. As much of a Donovan McNabb fan as I am, it's hard to really see a guy coming off 39 yards exposing this defense as much as Detroit's did. If Minnesota wins comfortably here, to me, it will be because Peterson approaches or tops 200 yards.
The Bucs on offense again face a challenge in that they will find it difficult to be able to get Blount untracked again. Minnesota's run defense is just too good and Blount plays into the power style that they are so custom-built to stop. If Tampa Bay gets it done on the road it's likely to be because Josh Freeman has a big game.
Overall, at something like 4.5 I'd be interested in Tampa Bay here. At 3 it just seems like an easy pass.
Indianapolis Colts vs. Cleveland Browns
Browns -1.5
O/U 39
Can't imagine that anyone realized too long ago just how close we were to seeing the Cleveland Browns installed as a road favorite against the Indianapolis Colts.
Don't expect to see me backing Indy much, if ever this season. I was as down on them as anyone and while I feel like getting points (even 1.5) against this lousy Browns team at home is probably an overreaction to them losing big to (in my eyes) one of the better teams in the NFL....I'm not sure that they match up well here. Even if Peyton Manning was playing, wouldn't you be worried about the Browns getting lose on the lead here and pounding it up the gut with Hillis and Hardesty all day long? The Browns one big offensive strength - power running - is the exact big weakness on this Colts defense. I've said it over and over - I said it before last week with the Texans and Ben Tate predictably went off - the Colts defense can't play without the lead. I do expect the Colts to stack the box, which is easily afforded given Colt McCoy's extreme conservatism as a NFL QB so far. If McCoy is able to make a few plays early though, it may free up some space and then things will get ugly. On top of that, it wouldn't be the first time the Colts loaded the box and got run all over anyway.
On the other end I just can't trust Kerry Collins and this offense until I see a little something. Not scared of this Browns defense at all. If you're a good NFL defense the Bengals should've been completely shut down last week. The talent level just isn't there for the Browns and I think it's impossible to predict who will hold the advantage there (Colts O vs. Browns D).
In the end this is another game that I would personally avoid. If you're a believer in the Browns defense I could see going with Cleveland, but to me it's a fairly obvious pass.
Saints -7
O/U 47
Talk about getting no respect. The Bears go out in week 1, blow the doors off everyone's favorite Super Bowl darling the Atlanta Falcons and now find themselves grabbing a touchdown in New Orleans. How many would they be getting if they had lost to Atlanta? As I noted, I'm not big on this Bears team and seeing Atlanta rack up 4 sacks against them, even in defeat, worries me. How will their offensive line hold up against the blitz-happy Saints? Despite the blitzing the Saints didn't exactly light up the Packers o-line though. If you can block them there are yards to be had all over the place.
I know how much perceptions change after just one week of football, but it's interesting how quickly everyone hopped back on the Drew Brees bandwagon and jumped off Matt Ryan's. Wasn't the Falcons offense supposed to be dynamic this year? Are we really giving this little credit to the performance of the Chicago defense last week? I realize that when you recover all five of the fumbled balls in a game, you had some good juju working, but when you force four fumbles and sack Ryan the same amount of times it's also a sign of just how good your defense is in the first place.
The value here is squarely on the Bears. I wrote that I would prefer to avoid them and there is still one huge reason to do so: The Bears o-line/Cutler facing a team that will be coming after him nearly every play. Undecided as of yet, but this is strictly a Bears or no play in my opinion. If it turns into a play there will be more to come on why.
Detroit Lions vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Lions -9
O/U 45
The deal with this line, to me, is this - the Lions are likely winners and Vegas has hung a line of 9 to avoid people from teasing it down. That there lends itself to value on the Chiefs because I really think the line deserves to be 7 or 7.5 That said, does it make enough of a difference to play?
Well, what we have here is a classic case of a QB (Cassel) who you simply can't back on the road at this point. With a solid Detroit defense taking the field are you really going to take 9 points with a team that just lost to the Bills by 34 at home? It's pretty tough to do.
On the other end, playing big favorites in the NFL is not my favorite strategy. In particular, I don't like to play a big favorite unless I am convinced the team laying the points is one of the league's elite. To say I'm not convinced of the Lions being that is a huge understatement. They still did very little on the ground and eventually exposed a secondary that only had one good player. The Chiefs cornerbacks are still good enough on paper that I would want to avoid Detroit at all costs here.
Personally, I won't be surprised if Detroit takes them out back to the woodshed. I also wouldn't be too shocked to watch Stafford turn it over a few times, have Charles make a couple big plays and see Kansas City hanging around late with a chance to win.
New York Jets vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Jets -9
O/U 39
The point of interest here to me will be to see if the defense that just shut down Chris Johnson can do the same against a Jets team (namely Shonn Greene) that was similarly stymied against the Cowboys. Personally, I have a hard time buying into either end of that. That Jaguars defense last year was historically bad. Was Paul Posluszny all that was really needed to make for this radical change? I'm thinking it was either just a blip on the radar, or an issue in Tennessee. The Jets offensive line is much less likely to be as overwhelmed by the Jacksonville front-7 as they were with Dallas on Sunday. It's just a huge drop in class on that front. Expect the Jets to look to get Greene going early and often and that should open up things for Sanchez, but will he take advantage?
In other news, Luke McCown is probably going to struggle to move the deal on the Jets defense. You can't get this type of analysis anywhere else folks! The Jaguars are a running football team and they are coming off a decent winning effort in large part thanks to that. But keep in mind that it is my opinion that Tennessee will likely be one of the league's worst against the run this year. Follow that up with the Jets, a top-5 run defense, and well, you better really have some unheralded reason to believe in Luke McCown if you intend to back Jacksonville here.
Hard not to look at this game and see the Jets winning with relative ease. Still probably don't see enough here to lay the 9, but I would play the Jets in suicide leagues with confidence.
Buffalo Bills vs. Oakland Raiders
Bills -3.5
O/U 43
I know the recent history of these two teams probably suggests it, but doesn't that total just seem a couple points high? The Cowboys and Niners are lined at 42.5. Maybe it's just me...
While the Bills put on the performance of week 1, the Raiders in my opinion benefited from a lot of fortune.
What I see here this week is a similar matchup for the Bills. Only this time they play at home against a west-coast team, coming east, to play an early game, on a short week. Seriously, I'll tip my cap to Run Dmc but if you really liked anything about the Raiders offense last week I don't know what you were watching. Jason Campbell looked terrible, the receivers still stink and when McFadden doesn't bust it for 20+ it seem he's stuck at the line of scrimmage. I don't want to get all nutty about the Bills defense but watching them absolutely bottle up an even more dynamic runner in Jamal Charles - they need to simply reproduce last weeks defensive performance against an offense that basically could switch jerseys with the Chiefs and no one would notice. Think about it - shit-armed quarterback, explosive duel-threat RB, horrendous WR's and garbage along the o-line. Dwayne Bowe and the Chiefs o-line actually swing the balance in KC's favor to me and while I don't think we will quite see the snowball effect that we did last week at Arrowhead, I feel there is some value in Buffalo at less than 4 (and don't particularly mind them all the way up to 6).
What concerns me most with Buffalo is how they are going to handle Oakland's front-7. Those guys completely overwhelmed Denver on Monday night and Buffalo's o-line is not a strength. Don't expect Fred Jackson to repeat his success like he did last week. What you have to trust here is a solid gameplan by Chan Gailey...if he can buy some time for Fitzpatrick back there we saw just how brutal the Oakland secondary is.
Lean to the Bills and lean to the under.
Washington Redskins vs. Arizona Cardinals
Redskins -4
O/U 44
Here is a game that I absolutely refuse to bet. I will say that there is no conceivable way I could imagine laying over a FG with Washington, so gun to my head I would just take the points. I mean, are we all seriously sipping the Rex Grossman kool-aid this much already that he's laying over a FG? I know it's not like they instilled him as a touchdown favorite, but still. Unfortunately, if you, like me, were waiting for a spot to fade Grossman against a team with better cornerbacks than New York, the wait continues. In fact, this week, he might be facing the only group of corners weaker than what the Giants rolled out there last week. Don't believe me? Just ask Steve Smith and Cam Newton.
Either way here whatever team wins and moves to 2-0 will be on my radar as a possible fade. I do think an interesting thing to watch here is how well Beanie Wells can run it. Besides just being interested in seeing if Wells is finally going to live up to the hype this year, if Arizona has any type of chance to be decent this year they are going to need him to chew up clock, because even if Kolb plays well that defense is terrible.
Not sure what else I can say about this one. To me it's take the points or pass with a strong recommendation of just doing the latter unless you really love Kevin Kolb.
Baltimore Ravens vs. Tennessee Titans
Ravens -5.5
O/U 38
Tennessee out-gained Jacksonville despite the loss and really seemed to gain control of the game in the second half. The Jaguars managed to do just enough to prevent Kenny Britt from coming all the way back on them.
Baltimore's dismantling of Pittsburgh was mighty impressive. I think the final score had a lot to do with jumping out front and things snowballing though. If you were watching early on Pittsburgh was running it effectively and after falling behind, in large part to a Roethlisberger fumble, came right down the field and scored to make it 14-7. Pittsburgh then got the ball back and Roethlisberger could do nothing with it. The turning point in the game came on the next Baltimore drive. The Ravens methodically drove the ball down the field and managed to convert on all 3rd down attempts. By the time Pittsburgh got the ball back it was practically halftime. The first play of the second half was where Mendenhall got buried as he was receiving the handoff. The next play Flacco threw a touchdown and suddenly the game had spiraled out of control. Major credit to Baltimore for taking these turnovers and converting them into touchdowns on the Pittsburgh defense. I just remain a touch less than convinced that this wasn't a game that worked in their favor from the get-go.
If Hasselbeck limits turnovers, I could see how Chris Johnson and Kenny Britt could keep Tennessee in the game here. And there is good news on Johnson's health as new reports project him to be in line for 25-30 touches possibly. That bodes well for the Titans, at least this week, but I'm not sure it would give me enough confidence in Tennessee to bother with the points.
Road test for Baltimore here will be interesting to monitor. While I probably won't give him too much credit even if he does, if you're a Baltimore fan you have to be crossing your fingers hoping that Flacco can put up another performance resembling what he did to Pittsburgh last week. Never a model of consistency, it would be a small step forward for Flacco and a great sign for Baltimore overall.
Lean to the points but not convinced of it yet.
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Seattle Seahawks
Pittsburgh -14
O/U 40
You, me, Vegas, Pittsburgh, Seattle, Pete Carroll, his mother, your mother and mine all know what is going to happen here. It just comes down to whether or not you are really in the business of laying 14 points in the NFL. With no chance whatsoever of Marshawn Lynch doing anything, it comes down to whether you think the Seattle D/Special Teams can score and if you think Tavaris Jackson can do what he did this past weekend - suck for all intents and purposes, but connect on a couple big plays. This would be a good week for him to get Sidney Rice back but it doesn't look like it's going to happen.
The odd thing about the Seahawks is that defensively they played extremely well last week. And just when Tavaris got them back in the game, the special teams dropped the ball and the score in turn looks a lot more lopsided than it would have had Ted Ginn not went all Ohio State on them. As bad as Ben Roethlisberger played last week however, something tells us all that he's going to make amends for that this week. This isn't exactly Alex Smith we're dealing with.
The way I always look at these lines where you are inclined to take the favorite is this: the backdoor TD rule. Are you confident enough that the team you want to take will be covering the spread by more than a TD with 6:00 to play in the game or so. If you're not, you're kind of turning the game into a coin flip and will be constantly stressing games late and/or constantly suffering tilt-inducing losses on "backdoor BS." I just don't think I can trust Pittsburgh enough to know that they won't give up a free TD with an early turnover or something along those lines. If that happens this still probably turns into a 27-10, 31-10 type of game but the margin for error is just too small and you'll be hoping to hold off the backdoor.
Carolina Panthers vs. Green Bay Packers
Packers -10
O/U 46
Well, first off, the Carolina Panthers are going to have a hard time stopping Green Bay. Again, you can't get this analysis anywhere else...but seriously Arizona left a lot of points on the table against the Panthers defense in the first half last week. Don't expect the Packers to afford them the same fortune this week.
I'd love to come up with some kind of super-smart angle about why Carolina is a big play, but I'd be lying if I said I did. The Green Bay defense has a lot of incentive to come out guns blazing here and with Cam Newton having already made his opening statement, don't expect them to be fooled here.
Newton's week 1 was extremely interesting on so many levels. By now we have all seen the highlight of Steve Smith, with 15 yards of separation, going for 80-some yards and a score. Still, it's not every day that a QB can throw for 400+ yards in the NFL, and in a career debut it is basically unheard of. There is a fine line between adjusting for opponent strength (or lack thereof in the case of the Zona D) and crediting rare performances.
Tough game to really endorse either way, my feeling now is that the line is pretty good. Green Bay should again fill it up but I think Newton will make enough plays along the way to at the least keep the backdoor within his grasps.
Minnesota Vikings vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Vikings -3
O/U 41
In a week with a bunch of big lines that are tough to swallow, is there any game that screams stay away more than this one? I honestly can't imagine how it could get much more even than this.
On one hand McNabb infamously threw for under 40 yards last week. Despite that ADP kept Minnesota in the game. When looking at the Tampa Bay defense, I think Peterson will do his thing, but they usually look pretty stout against the run. Where you can really expose this Tampa Bay defense is where their head coach is supposed to be the foremost guru - the secondary. Aqib Talib, despite a pick-6, still got the worst of his matchup with Megatron. But don't hold that against him much, Megatron destroys almost everyone he goes against, especially when his QB actually has an NFL-caliber arm attached to his side. Talib is still one of the league's very best corners as far as I'm concerned. Unfortunately, Tampa runs into the issue where Talib basically becomes ignored and the opposing QB will pick on the rest of the guys. And the rest of those guys walk a fine line between garbage and atrocious. I could make an argument that maybe Detroit really exposed Tampa's secondary a lot more than most will because not only did they get to throw at the CB2 and CB3's, but Talib also wasn't shutting down his man as usual...which was basically the straw that broke the camels back for the Tampa defense. As much of a Donovan McNabb fan as I am, it's hard to really see a guy coming off 39 yards exposing this defense as much as Detroit's did. If Minnesota wins comfortably here, to me, it will be because Peterson approaches or tops 200 yards.
The Bucs on offense again face a challenge in that they will find it difficult to be able to get Blount untracked again. Minnesota's run defense is just too good and Blount plays into the power style that they are so custom-built to stop. If Tampa Bay gets it done on the road it's likely to be because Josh Freeman has a big game.
Overall, at something like 4.5 I'd be interested in Tampa Bay here. At 3 it just seems like an easy pass.
Indianapolis Colts vs. Cleveland Browns
Browns -1.5
O/U 39
Can't imagine that anyone realized too long ago just how close we were to seeing the Cleveland Browns installed as a road favorite against the Indianapolis Colts.
Don't expect to see me backing Indy much, if ever this season. I was as down on them as anyone and while I feel like getting points (even 1.5) against this lousy Browns team at home is probably an overreaction to them losing big to (in my eyes) one of the better teams in the NFL....I'm not sure that they match up well here. Even if Peyton Manning was playing, wouldn't you be worried about the Browns getting lose on the lead here and pounding it up the gut with Hillis and Hardesty all day long? The Browns one big offensive strength - power running - is the exact big weakness on this Colts defense. I've said it over and over - I said it before last week with the Texans and Ben Tate predictably went off - the Colts defense can't play without the lead. I do expect the Colts to stack the box, which is easily afforded given Colt McCoy's extreme conservatism as a NFL QB so far. If McCoy is able to make a few plays early though, it may free up some space and then things will get ugly. On top of that, it wouldn't be the first time the Colts loaded the box and got run all over anyway.
On the other end I just can't trust Kerry Collins and this offense until I see a little something. Not scared of this Browns defense at all. If you're a good NFL defense the Bengals should've been completely shut down last week. The talent level just isn't there for the Browns and I think it's impossible to predict who will hold the advantage there (Colts O vs. Browns D).
In the end this is another game that I would personally avoid. If you're a believer in the Browns defense I could see going with Cleveland, but to me it's a fairly obvious pass.
I'll chime in on the Bears since I watched every play of that game.
Let me just say this: The Offensive Line play was superb.
Every one of those sacks they gave up are on Jay Cutler. I was pretty much floored at how well they played against Atlanta. They got out on screens and busted face, they lined up and whipped Atlanta on pretty much every running play, etc.
Jay Cutler still hasn't figured out that he is not allowed 4+ seconds to hold onto the ball in the pocket, nor is any quarterback. His stubbornness to not ever just throw the ball away, and ALWAYS try to extend the play, is a major liability.
If the Saints want to bring the house on every play at Cutler, then there will be plenty of chances for Matt Forte to bust off huge gainers in the screen game. Martz actually called a great game against Atlanta.
The scariest thing to me in this game is the scariest thing every time you play New Orleans, and that is Drew Brees getting white hot in the passing game and just throwing it all over you. He is one of the most underrated athletes in football. But Colston is out and Lance Moore won't be 100% with a groin injury. The Bears will also rally around their unquestionable leader, Brian Urlacher, after the death of his mother. This is shaping up to be a very close game, and one that the Bears can win outright.
I probably won't play it just because I don't want to have any clouded judgement living in Chicago and seeing how they played last week, but you could certainly do worse on Sunday than taking a live dog that people still don't believe in: BEARS.
Let me just say this: The Offensive Line play was superb.
Every one of those sacks they gave up are on Jay Cutler. I was pretty much floored at how well they played against Atlanta. They got out on screens and busted face, they lined up and whipped Atlanta on pretty much every running play, etc.
Jay Cutler still hasn't figured out that he is not allowed 4+ seconds to hold onto the ball in the pocket, nor is any quarterback. His stubbornness to not ever just throw the ball away, and ALWAYS try to extend the play, is a major liability.
If the Saints want to bring the house on every play at Cutler, then there will be plenty of chances for Matt Forte to bust off huge gainers in the screen game. Martz actually called a great game against Atlanta.
The scariest thing to me in this game is the scariest thing every time you play New Orleans, and that is Drew Brees getting white hot in the passing game and just throwing it all over you. He is one of the most underrated athletes in football. But Colston is out and Lance Moore won't be 100% with a groin injury. The Bears will also rally around their unquestionable leader, Brian Urlacher, after the death of his mother. This is shaping up to be a very close game, and one that the Bears can win outright.
I probably won't play it just because I don't want to have any clouded judgement living in Chicago and seeing how they played last week, but you could certainly do worse on Sunday than taking a live dog that people still don't believe in: BEARS.
^Great info, thanks a lot for the post. That is what it's all about right there.
Couldn't agree more on Jay Cutler, he has a severe case of Trent Edwards disease.
With Mike Tice running the unit it won't surprise me if the Bears o-line turns into a strength, but it was hard to project that prior to the season...and then seeing the 4 sacks made me nervous. Definitely leaning heavy on the Bears here. Sure Brees can always beat you, but 7 points is nothing to sneeze at.
Couldn't agree more on Jay Cutler, he has a severe case of Trent Edwards disease.
With Mike Tice running the unit it won't surprise me if the Bears o-line turns into a strength, but it was hard to project that prior to the season...and then seeing the 4 sacks made me nervous. Definitely leaning heavy on the Bears here. Sure Brees can always beat you, but 7 points is nothing to sneeze at.
San Fransisco 49ers vs. Dallas Cowboys
Cowboys -3
O/U 42.5
This line is giving me fits. It's not that I think the Cowboys shouldn't be -3 here. It is actually exactly what I would expect the line to be set it. The issue I'm having is that why not bump it as usual for Dallas? They could set it at -4 and not have to worry about getting action on Dallas I would think. It seems like they have absolutely no fear of you loading up on Dallas this week. Well, call me a fish because that's exactly what I want to do.
For one, the Cowboys came out and made the Jets defense look so marginal it was comical. The offensive line was not busy creating holes for Felix Jones but it was no matter as Tony Romo was busy charting a pass of Revis Island with unusual success, while making the rest of the secondary look in serious need of a Nnamdi. Clearly, the second half was a different story but a lot of that had to do with Dallas not being able to establish any type of running game. I've said it a million times already but it's extremely difficult to do so against the Jets defense and should not be counted as an indictment against Felix Jones. While San Fransisco's defense comes out of Sunday's game looking like roses, it came against one of the NFL's most lifeless offenses. Still, with Sopoaga clogging the middle and Smith and McDonald at the ends with Patrick Willis cleaning up the mess the Niners are going to be difficult to run on. They had better be able to bring a big pass rush however. As we saw with the Jets the Cowboys don't need to establish a running threat to rack up big chunks of yards through the air. I'm thinking Felix Jones will get untracked a bit and Dallas will again enjoy offensive success.
On the other side of the ball, Alex Smith threw for all of 124 yards against a Seahawks secondary that was historically bad last year. Frank Gore alarmingly didn't have it going much either so the excuses are fairly limited. I really feel Michael Crabtree needs to get healthy fast for this offense to open up because it is predicated around short, conservative timing patterns that expect the receivers to break off big YAC averages. If Smith is smart he will look early and often to get the ball in the hands of his best playmaker - tight end Vernon Davis. The Cowboys really have no safeties of linebackers that are capable of covering him. If they are going to limit Davis it is going to be thanks to the front-seven harassing Smith. As we saw against the Jets last week, that is a very serious possibility.
Overall, anything over four would scare me off here I think, but at anything less than 3.5 it's going to be awfully hard for me to avoid. How am I not supposed to think that the Cowboys will win here? They have all the offensive weapons to score plenty on the road and their front-seven is more than capable of making Alex Smith's life a living hell Sunday. I'll take my chances on a FG, anything more and it becomes a substantially more difficult decision.
Miami Dolphins vs. Houston Texans
Texans -3
O/U 48
Oh geeze, Vegas trying to get me to fall in love with the biggest sucker bet out, the 3 point road favorite. As you well know, I think very highly of this Texans team. Fortunately, I think I saw enough sneaky-goodness out of Miami to keep me away here.
Offensively, the Texans are dynamic. Last week however, the defense they were going against was Taylor-Made to trounce. Power running and explosive receiving options will give the Colts major problems. For the Dolphins it is a little bit less clear. Last week they simply ran into a buzz-saw in Tom Brady. That and the Vontae Davis injury led to the massacre of Nolan Carroll and things just ballooned out of control. This week they are a bit better equipped. Sean Smith is the best cornerback you've (maybe) never heard of. He'll have his hands full this week but should at least fare better with Andre than most do. They also might fool around and put others on Andre while doubling and have Smith shut down Jones or Water. The bottom line is that the Dolphins still have enough talent in the secondary to make things work and as good as Matt Schaub is, I doubt he has enough weapons, or the guile, to expose Nolan Carroll to that degree. The other obvious issue is cear when you think about how badly Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski scorched the Fins defense. Owen Daniels. He'll be a handful this weekend and Miami will be forced to pick their poison on doubling him or Johnson. My guess is that they'll try to slow down Johnson and it is very likely that Daniels will make them pay in a big way.
On offense, Chad Henne looked a lot better last week than he did at any point last year. He still has the arm to be effective and while I'm not sure I saw a ton of progressions or pocket poise, we still are unsure of how improved the Texans defense is. This will be an interesting test both for Henne and for the Texans defense on the road. Reggie Bush made a lot of nice plays last week but it sounds like Dan Thomas will actually see the field a bit more this week. I don't think that is a positive for Miami THIS week, though it probably is the right move long-term.
Overall I see this game as one between two teams that are currently back-able. The line seems about right. Add it all up and it looks like a stay-away. Hopefully the dynamics of the game will favor one team greatly and we can come back next week and back the other.
New England Patriots vs. San Diego Chargers
Patriots -7
O/U 53.5
Wow at that over/under, is this the NFL or the MAC? Pretty odd to see a team go from being 7 point favorites against Adrian Peterson and co. to 7 point dogs the next week.
Say what you will about Donovan McNabb only throwing for 40 yards last weekend but can we really give no credit to San Diego's defense? Holding any QB getting a start for a NFL team to under 50 yards is impressive. Holding Tavaris Jackson or Brodie Croyle to 40 yards would be impressive. Holding Jimmy Clausen to 40 yards would be...eh, OK, so holding any QB other than Jimmy Clausen to that total would be impressive. But I digress - the point is that we are probably going to see something in-between what we saw last week. There is no chance San Diego is going to repeat the performance against Brady, but it is also unlikely that Brady will approach his performance from last week. The problem is, there is a lot of room for being wrong when trying to project in a range between 40 and 500 yards. The over/under being 53.5 probably gives us a hint there though....
Defensively, New England was borderline exposed by Henne last week. I think they match up better against the run with Matthews/Tolbert. Spikes and Mayo are ridiculously good tacklers and I think Bush's speed was the key to finding any type of production. San Diego's game is more power which plays right into New England's wheelhouse. Not exactly a death sentence for a team with Philip Rivers slinging the rock. If Chad Henne went for over 400 against this defense, it's hard not to project similar or better production from Rivers.
Overall my feeling is this - I want no part of laying 7 points to the Chargers. I want no part of figuring out the Chargers. And I want no part of betting against Brady at just about any point spread right now. The over/under of 53.5 makes what looks like an inflated line (7) a lot less significant. Expect these teams to be scoring touchdowns early and often. Gun to my head I'd take the points, but again, I really want no part of either side here.
Denver Broncos vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Broncos -3.5
O/U 40
Denver really disappointed me Monday night. I felt that I had a strong cap on that game and I waked away feeling like they left a lot of opportunities on the table. At the same time, I think we saw a battle of two really weak teams. You could say a lot of the same things to summarize the Bengals game, with the major difference being that they actually took advantage and won. They won a game they weren't supposed to even be that competitive mind you, while the Broncos lost a game they were supposed to win.
Constantly, in the NFL, I think value comes in betting on the teams no one else wants to. Everyone feels more "safe" when they bet a team like the Pats or the Saints. Teams that will always be in a game, rarely blown out, always capable of mounting comebacks with their dynamic QB's. Unfortunately, Vegas makes you pay a price to back teams like that, while often you are better off picking out teams like these that are certain to be hanging out on the clearance rack all season. It just comes down to picking the right spots...because anytime you take an item off the clearance rack, you take a risk of being the joke of the party.
I say this because I find myself, inexplicably to most, attracted for the second straight week to the Cincinnati Bengals. Monitoring the injuries for the Broncos is of utmost importance here and for that reason I am not going to get too in-depth yet, if I decide it's a play I will.
The shortcut version is this - I think the Raiders are really bad. I think the Bengals are better than perception. As important as QB is, everyone is blinded by just thinking Andy Dalton is a rookie with a weak arm. They still have a decent offensive line, solid run game and a reasonable defense. Denver certainly has more big play threats and Orton is capable of throwing Dalton out of the stadium. But if that doesn't happen, the Bengals have a chance of stealing away here. And get the field goal PLUS the hook is the icing on the cake. At just 3 even it is probably a stay-away. At 3.5 it's awfully tempting. More to come here possibly....
Cowboys -3
O/U 42.5
This line is giving me fits. It's not that I think the Cowboys shouldn't be -3 here. It is actually exactly what I would expect the line to be set it. The issue I'm having is that why not bump it as usual for Dallas? They could set it at -4 and not have to worry about getting action on Dallas I would think. It seems like they have absolutely no fear of you loading up on Dallas this week. Well, call me a fish because that's exactly what I want to do.
For one, the Cowboys came out and made the Jets defense look so marginal it was comical. The offensive line was not busy creating holes for Felix Jones but it was no matter as Tony Romo was busy charting a pass of Revis Island with unusual success, while making the rest of the secondary look in serious need of a Nnamdi. Clearly, the second half was a different story but a lot of that had to do with Dallas not being able to establish any type of running game. I've said it a million times already but it's extremely difficult to do so against the Jets defense and should not be counted as an indictment against Felix Jones. While San Fransisco's defense comes out of Sunday's game looking like roses, it came against one of the NFL's most lifeless offenses. Still, with Sopoaga clogging the middle and Smith and McDonald at the ends with Patrick Willis cleaning up the mess the Niners are going to be difficult to run on. They had better be able to bring a big pass rush however. As we saw with the Jets the Cowboys don't need to establish a running threat to rack up big chunks of yards through the air. I'm thinking Felix Jones will get untracked a bit and Dallas will again enjoy offensive success.
On the other side of the ball, Alex Smith threw for all of 124 yards against a Seahawks secondary that was historically bad last year. Frank Gore alarmingly didn't have it going much either so the excuses are fairly limited. I really feel Michael Crabtree needs to get healthy fast for this offense to open up because it is predicated around short, conservative timing patterns that expect the receivers to break off big YAC averages. If Smith is smart he will look early and often to get the ball in the hands of his best playmaker - tight end Vernon Davis. The Cowboys really have no safeties of linebackers that are capable of covering him. If they are going to limit Davis it is going to be thanks to the front-seven harassing Smith. As we saw against the Jets last week, that is a very serious possibility.
Overall, anything over four would scare me off here I think, but at anything less than 3.5 it's going to be awfully hard for me to avoid. How am I not supposed to think that the Cowboys will win here? They have all the offensive weapons to score plenty on the road and their front-seven is more than capable of making Alex Smith's life a living hell Sunday. I'll take my chances on a FG, anything more and it becomes a substantially more difficult decision.
Miami Dolphins vs. Houston Texans
Texans -3
O/U 48
Oh geeze, Vegas trying to get me to fall in love with the biggest sucker bet out, the 3 point road favorite. As you well know, I think very highly of this Texans team. Fortunately, I think I saw enough sneaky-goodness out of Miami to keep me away here.
Offensively, the Texans are dynamic. Last week however, the defense they were going against was Taylor-Made to trounce. Power running and explosive receiving options will give the Colts major problems. For the Dolphins it is a little bit less clear. Last week they simply ran into a buzz-saw in Tom Brady. That and the Vontae Davis injury led to the massacre of Nolan Carroll and things just ballooned out of control. This week they are a bit better equipped. Sean Smith is the best cornerback you've (maybe) never heard of. He'll have his hands full this week but should at least fare better with Andre than most do. They also might fool around and put others on Andre while doubling and have Smith shut down Jones or Water. The bottom line is that the Dolphins still have enough talent in the secondary to make things work and as good as Matt Schaub is, I doubt he has enough weapons, or the guile, to expose Nolan Carroll to that degree. The other obvious issue is cear when you think about how badly Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski scorched the Fins defense. Owen Daniels. He'll be a handful this weekend and Miami will be forced to pick their poison on doubling him or Johnson. My guess is that they'll try to slow down Johnson and it is very likely that Daniels will make them pay in a big way.
On offense, Chad Henne looked a lot better last week than he did at any point last year. He still has the arm to be effective and while I'm not sure I saw a ton of progressions or pocket poise, we still are unsure of how improved the Texans defense is. This will be an interesting test both for Henne and for the Texans defense on the road. Reggie Bush made a lot of nice plays last week but it sounds like Dan Thomas will actually see the field a bit more this week. I don't think that is a positive for Miami THIS week, though it probably is the right move long-term.
Overall I see this game as one between two teams that are currently back-able. The line seems about right. Add it all up and it looks like a stay-away. Hopefully the dynamics of the game will favor one team greatly and we can come back next week and back the other.
New England Patriots vs. San Diego Chargers
Patriots -7
O/U 53.5
Wow at that over/under, is this the NFL or the MAC? Pretty odd to see a team go from being 7 point favorites against Adrian Peterson and co. to 7 point dogs the next week.
Say what you will about Donovan McNabb only throwing for 40 yards last weekend but can we really give no credit to San Diego's defense? Holding any QB getting a start for a NFL team to under 50 yards is impressive. Holding Tavaris Jackson or Brodie Croyle to 40 yards would be impressive. Holding Jimmy Clausen to 40 yards would be...eh, OK, so holding any QB other than Jimmy Clausen to that total would be impressive. But I digress - the point is that we are probably going to see something in-between what we saw last week. There is no chance San Diego is going to repeat the performance against Brady, but it is also unlikely that Brady will approach his performance from last week. The problem is, there is a lot of room for being wrong when trying to project in a range between 40 and 500 yards. The over/under being 53.5 probably gives us a hint there though....
Defensively, New England was borderline exposed by Henne last week. I think they match up better against the run with Matthews/Tolbert. Spikes and Mayo are ridiculously good tacklers and I think Bush's speed was the key to finding any type of production. San Diego's game is more power which plays right into New England's wheelhouse. Not exactly a death sentence for a team with Philip Rivers slinging the rock. If Chad Henne went for over 400 against this defense, it's hard not to project similar or better production from Rivers.
Overall my feeling is this - I want no part of laying 7 points to the Chargers. I want no part of figuring out the Chargers. And I want no part of betting against Brady at just about any point spread right now. The over/under of 53.5 makes what looks like an inflated line (7) a lot less significant. Expect these teams to be scoring touchdowns early and often. Gun to my head I'd take the points, but again, I really want no part of either side here.
Denver Broncos vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Broncos -3.5
O/U 40
Denver really disappointed me Monday night. I felt that I had a strong cap on that game and I waked away feeling like they left a lot of opportunities on the table. At the same time, I think we saw a battle of two really weak teams. You could say a lot of the same things to summarize the Bengals game, with the major difference being that they actually took advantage and won. They won a game they weren't supposed to even be that competitive mind you, while the Broncos lost a game they were supposed to win.
Constantly, in the NFL, I think value comes in betting on the teams no one else wants to. Everyone feels more "safe" when they bet a team like the Pats or the Saints. Teams that will always be in a game, rarely blown out, always capable of mounting comebacks with their dynamic QB's. Unfortunately, Vegas makes you pay a price to back teams like that, while often you are better off picking out teams like these that are certain to be hanging out on the clearance rack all season. It just comes down to picking the right spots...because anytime you take an item off the clearance rack, you take a risk of being the joke of the party.
I say this because I find myself, inexplicably to most, attracted for the second straight week to the Cincinnati Bengals. Monitoring the injuries for the Broncos is of utmost importance here and for that reason I am not going to get too in-depth yet, if I decide it's a play I will.
The shortcut version is this - I think the Raiders are really bad. I think the Bengals are better than perception. As important as QB is, everyone is blinded by just thinking Andy Dalton is a rookie with a weak arm. They still have a decent offensive line, solid run game and a reasonable defense. Denver certainly has more big play threats and Orton is capable of throwing Dalton out of the stadium. But if that doesn't happen, the Bengals have a chance of stealing away here. And get the field goal PLUS the hook is the icing on the cake. At just 3 even it is probably a stay-away. At 3.5 it's awfully tempting. More to come here possibly....
New York Giants vs. St. Louis Rams
Giants -7
O/U 44
Well first thing is first - it appears that Tuck and Nicks will suit up. How effective they can be is anyone's guess, but it's a good thing regardless.
Offensively, the Giants are being a touch underrated coming into tonight I feel. The Redskins defense isn't all that bad and they offense had a plethora of chances to bust the game open last week, only for bad drops, blown blocks, bad playcalling and penalties to stall them out. You cannot give them a complete pass for those mental lapses, but you have to consider that week 1 rust is going to be there and if they tighten up some nuts and bolts they should be poised to light up the scoreboard tonight. The thing that will determine whether or not they do that tonight is how the offensive line plays. Last week they did not give Eli Manning nearly enough time to set up and pick apart the secondary. One thing that should help tonight is the Rams run defense. While many of the 236 yards they allowed to the Eagles last week on the ground were of the Mike Vick scramble variety, McCoy still averaged 8.1 a clip himself and the holes were gigantic. The Giants offensive line is still mighty capable of opening up big holes for the ground game and that will only help them is pass protection this week.
The Rams will be without a guy who hasn't just been the centerpiece of their offense, he has been their offense over the past several years. Steven Jackson is out and the Cadillac is in. While man are starting to re-sip the Caddy Kool-Aid after gaining 91 yards last week, I simply can't buy it. Anyone who watched the Eagles run defense last night knows that they can't stop anyone on the ground. The Giants on the other hand have been extremely stout against the run for years and with Justin Tuck suiting back up tonight that run defense is only going to get better. That will leave it all on Sam Bradford's shoulders. While I don't want to make too much of a bruised index finger, you just never know how much that can end up playing a roll. Do you really want the talent-lacking, young team coming over from St. Louis to the East Coast to play in primetime without their star offensive player and their QB with a finger injury? For all these reasons I think the game shapes up as "Giants or nothing."
If you really explore these two teams depth charts you'd be shocked to see how big the contrast in talent is. Say what you want about how bad the Giants secondary played last week. On paper Webster, Ross, Philips and Rolle isn't half bad. The Rams wheel out Bradley Fletcher, Justin King, Quintin Mikell and Craig Dahl. Did I mention that Al Harris is listed as their nickel back? Seriously, I know Mikell was a big signing, but this is not good. Particularly former Giant practice squader Craig Dahl. Even if Nicks is 75%, the Giants receivers will use and abuse this group and Eli will pick them apart, again, assuming the line can block.
The Rams front-seven has some decent players with Chris Long, Fred Robbins and James Laurinaitis. That's cute and all but it's not scaring anyone.
Official Play: Giants -7
Giants -7
O/U 44
Well first thing is first - it appears that Tuck and Nicks will suit up. How effective they can be is anyone's guess, but it's a good thing regardless.
Offensively, the Giants are being a touch underrated coming into tonight I feel. The Redskins defense isn't all that bad and they offense had a plethora of chances to bust the game open last week, only for bad drops, blown blocks, bad playcalling and penalties to stall them out. You cannot give them a complete pass for those mental lapses, but you have to consider that week 1 rust is going to be there and if they tighten up some nuts and bolts they should be poised to light up the scoreboard tonight. The thing that will determine whether or not they do that tonight is how the offensive line plays. Last week they did not give Eli Manning nearly enough time to set up and pick apart the secondary. One thing that should help tonight is the Rams run defense. While many of the 236 yards they allowed to the Eagles last week on the ground were of the Mike Vick scramble variety, McCoy still averaged 8.1 a clip himself and the holes were gigantic. The Giants offensive line is still mighty capable of opening up big holes for the ground game and that will only help them is pass protection this week.
The Rams will be without a guy who hasn't just been the centerpiece of their offense, he has been their offense over the past several years. Steven Jackson is out and the Cadillac is in. While man are starting to re-sip the Caddy Kool-Aid after gaining 91 yards last week, I simply can't buy it. Anyone who watched the Eagles run defense last night knows that they can't stop anyone on the ground. The Giants on the other hand have been extremely stout against the run for years and with Justin Tuck suiting back up tonight that run defense is only going to get better. That will leave it all on Sam Bradford's shoulders. While I don't want to make too much of a bruised index finger, you just never know how much that can end up playing a roll. Do you really want the talent-lacking, young team coming over from St. Louis to the East Coast to play in primetime without their star offensive player and their QB with a finger injury? For all these reasons I think the game shapes up as "Giants or nothing."
If you really explore these two teams depth charts you'd be shocked to see how big the contrast in talent is. Say what you want about how bad the Giants secondary played last week. On paper Webster, Ross, Philips and Rolle isn't half bad. The Rams wheel out Bradley Fletcher, Justin King, Quintin Mikell and Craig Dahl. Did I mention that Al Harris is listed as their nickel back? Seriously, I know Mikell was a big signing, but this is not good. Particularly former Giant practice squader Craig Dahl. Even if Nicks is 75%, the Giants receivers will use and abuse this group and Eli will pick them apart, again, assuming the line can block.
The Rams front-seven has some decent players with Chris Long, Fred Robbins and James Laurinaitis. That's cute and all but it's not scaring anyone.
Official Play: Giants -7
Cincinnati Bengals vs. San Fransisco 49ers
Bengals -1.5
O/U 40.5
Obviously, the Bengals have been good to me so far going 2-0 ATS. Now it's time to avoid the Bengals - better jump off before the train crashes right? Well, call me stubborn but I'm not so sure...
First of all, we could give San Fransisco a pass for losing a heartbreaker to the Cowboys on Sunday. The Cowboys, after all, are much more talented than Cincy, that I'll grant. But still, with the Cowboys on the West Coast, Dez Bryant out and Tony Romo missing time/playing through a punctured lung - aren't you supposed to win that game? Now they head to the East Coast for a 1 o'clock kick against a team I still feel is underrated. While the 49ers did shut down Seattle and Dallas on the ground, neither team was able to get anything going in their other games either. Cincy meanwhile has a decent run game. It won't bowl you over, but they're likely to pose more of a threat which is bad news for a defense that was just exposed in the secondary last week. Offensively, the 49ers haven't done much right all year. All of their scores last week were the result of short fields. In his two starts under Jim Harbaugh's tutelage Alex Smith so far managed to throw for 120 and 180 yards respectively. Last week Dallas sacked him 6 times. The 49ers have major deficiencies. The only thing they have so far appeared capable of doing is stopping the run - against two teams who struggled in their other games to do the same. Fact is, their win came against arguably the league's worst team in the Seahawks. They might not be a worse team than Cincy, but I'm certainly not convinced they're better. And situationally, you can't much beat the east coast team hosting a west coast team at 1 o'clock.
It needs to be said that so far Cincy has faced two of the AFC's worst teams - Cleveland and Denver - and only won one. AJ Green is a bigtime playmaker but still has much to prove and had a bad drop late last week. Benson doesn't really have home run hitting ability. Dalton looked good last week but it was against a Denver defense that simply isn't very good right now. If San Fran continues to stop the run, can you trust Andy Dalton to convert 2nd + 3rd and longs?
The value is on Cincy here which makes it Bengals or nothing as far as I'm concerned. Not saying I am definitely going back to the well here...but not saying I'm not....
Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots
Pats -9
O/U 53
Well, I'll be on hand for this one so I'm hoping that the Bills have a prayer. Even the most optimistic, kool-aid sippin', stunnershades wearin', Tom Brady hatin', Ryan Fitzpatrick lovin' Bills fan seems to be having a hard time seeing any way the Bills can compete here.
I'll say this much in defense of the Bills and the points - New England's defense has actually looked substantially worse than I expected so far. And the Bills, somehow, have been an unstoppable force offensively. Part of it, no doubt, was facing KC and the Raiders. Still though, it's hard to ignore 41 and 38 point performances at the professional level. They have been running all over the league for quite some time now (this year and last) and New England, when you take out the joke that is Mike Tolbert, struggled to stop Ryan Matthews and the rest of San Diego's rushing attack last week. In week 1, Reggie Bush was pretty effective. It's not ridiculous to expect another good game out of Fred Jackson. The Patriots biggest weakness, of course, has been against the pass. The Bills proved last week that they're more than happy trading points - and you have to really ask yourself if you want to lay 9 points with a secondary that has stopped no one, against a team that is averaging nearly 40 points per game.
That is about all I can give in defense of a Bills cover at this point though. Like I've said before - why bother trying to beat Tom Brady right now? Doesn't it just seem like there are better ways to go about making money in the NFL? If I couldn't take 7 with San Diego, I just don't see how (even at home) I can take 9 with Buffalo. They couldn't stop Jason Campbell for crying out loud.
Overall, small, probably biased, lean toward the Bills, but overall a stay away game.
New Orleans Saints vs. Houston Texans
Saints -3.5
O/U 53
Over/Under seems awfully high doesn't it? Same number as Bills/Pats? I get that Schaub/Johnson can be lethal and every game New Orleans plays in threatens to be high scoring. Still, in New Orleans, the Saints defense gets a big boost from the crowd. You would think that the Texans will look to establish their power running game early and often. Yes, I expect Andre J to have a big game, but I don't know here...the Texans defense looks pretty serious to me. I know that it was Kerry Collins and Chad Henne, but Houston right now is giving up the fewest passing yards per game. Just seems like a very high total for two teams likely to do a fair amount of running.
As for who to like here - I want to believe that there is a touch of value in Houston catching over a FG...but I really think a wise gambler is going to make Houston prove it before diving in on them at a short price in one of the toughest atmospheres in the entire league.
At the same time I just could not back the Saints here. For one, I feel they are overrated. Their blitzing defense is just a sham that will get exposed against most of the better offenses they face and here comes one. And I just like Houston to be very good this year. Having seen nothing to tell me the opposite, I don't intend on getting cute here.
Cleveland Browns vs. Miami Dolphins
Browns -2.5
O/U 41
Have been saying I'd like to find a spot to catch some value on the Dolphins and this is looking like a possibility. Note that backing Chad Henne on the road is - like drinking Guinness - only for the bold. Fortunately, I love Guinness, and I also love the Dolphins this week.
Probably will have more eventually but the premise is pretty simple:
A) The Dolphins are "dirtied up" - particularly on defense - after getting drilled by two of the league's premier units in the Patriots and Texans.
B) The Dolphins offense so far this season looks leaps and bounds improved upon last years version.
C) They unveiled Dan Thomas last week and the results were highly promising. They will probably have to hide him on passing downs but he looks like the perfect compliment to Reggie Bush.
D) Their two performances, despite both being losses, they competed with New England and Houston. That is miles ahead of what Cleveland has done so far, losing by 10 at home to Cincy and beating a helpless Colts team, narrowly.
E) The line, being under 3, says a lot to me.
Honestly, if it were later in the year and the weather uglier I'd be much more concerned about Miami on the road here. But from what I've watched of these two teams, I just don't think they are near each other in terms of talent.
Tennessee Titans vs. Denver Broncos
Titans -7
O/U 42
The Titans just beat the Ravens by 13 at home. Do I really need to give you any more reason not to bet Denver here?
I really don't know what to make of Tennessee at this point. They have some explosive playmakers in Kenny Britt and Chris Johnson. Their defense has shut down a pair of inconsistent offenses and quarterbacks.
To me, the Broncos offense still has too many playmakers in Brandon Lloyd, Knowshon Moreno (not sure of his status yet) and a capable quarterback in Kyle Orton to lay 7 with a Tennessee team that is just a mixed bag at this point.
Overall, this is a game that screams stay away to me and I plan on doing just that.
Minnesota Vikings vs. Detroit Lions
Lions -3.5
O/U 44.5
Patience is key in the NFL. It's such a matchup league that you have to be careful about your opinions. It's not enough to just be right about a certain team. You need to be right - and then find the right spot to prove it. I've been burned in the past chasing my opinions. I can remember week after week betting against Vince Young before, getting burnt time and again. Was I wrong that Vince Young wasn't a great NFL quarterback? Probably not. But I let one opinion put the blinkers on all the other handicapping angles to consider when looking for an angle worthy of a bet.
Well, everyone's favorite darling the Detroit Lions are extremely overhyped to me. To be fair, they ripped up the Bucs defense in week one with relative ease. But as I have already noted I really think that they are a nightmare for Tampa's defense to deal with. This week they will face an interesting test as they take to the road to face Minnesota.
First off, Minnesota is desperate for a win this week. At 0-2, they simply cannot afford to fall any further. Last week, they seemingly had Tampa Bay dead by the half, leading 17-0. A disaster of a second half saw Tampa come all the way back on them for the win.
They similarly blew a 17-7 lead to San Diego on the road in week 1.
A breeze through Minnesota's stats reveals that the more things change the more they seem to stay the same. So far this year they are running it very well offensively, but can't get anything going through the air. Defensively, they are still very stout against the run and still vulnerable against the pass.
Minnesota seems to be what you expect - a solid but unspectacular team. The fact that neither Phil Rivers nor Josh Freeman blew the doors off them gives me reason enough to think about taking a stab against Matt Stafford and the Lions. I'm just not entirely sure what the Lions have accomplished. They beat the same Bucs team that came back on Minnesota - but their style and weapons makes them much more lethal against the Tampa-2 than Minnesota, who basically plays right into what Tampa tries to accomplish.
Lost in all the hoopla surrounding the Jamaal Charles injury and the huge numbers Detroit ended up putting up is that the Chiefs actually outplayed Detroit in the first quarter last Sunday. Detroit's first TD came only after a Stafford interception in which KC FS Jon McGraw, fumbled it back to Detroit during his return. The Lions offense was pretty quiet the rest of the way while the Chiefs were churning out nice gains, settling for a short FG once (opting for a 33 yard FG instead of going for it on 4th and 1) and missing a 44 yarder(again opting to not go for it on 4th and 2) . In the second quarter, the Lions offense finally woke up thanks to good field position and scored a quick TD moving ahead 14-3. KC moved it right back down the field on the Detroit defense before Cassel threw a pick on 3rd and 4 at the Lions 29. Detroit turned that into a FG for a 17-3 lead and at that point KC really was forced to abandon the run game. When they did that they lost balance and Matt Cassel began to get hit left and right while turning it over just as much. Like I said about Pittsburgh in the Baltimore game - things snowballed. KC wasn't a great team before the season. They're substantially worse now with all their major injuries. And yet, I don't think the final score is any indication of them being all that over-matched against this Lions team last Sunday. I think it was more a case of some bad breaks, conservative play-calling and for lack of a better term "snowballing." Do I think KC was really going to beat Detroit if some things went better early? No, of course not. But do I think that Detroit's performance was one of this suddenly dominant "breakout team" that everyone else seems to take for granted? Well, let's just say I hear substantially less talk about a Bills team that essentially did the same, with a healthy Charles, at Arrowhead a week prior.
Give me the Vikings and a FG + a hook at home. Maybe the Lions will prove too explosive. But this is NFL value betting at its finest in my eyes.
Carolina Panthers vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Panthers -3.5
O/U 43
Yuck. Two rookie QB's squaring off here. Hard not to want to side with Cam Newton after he rattled off back-to-back 400 yard games and will enjoy homefield advantage here. It's a tough call though because Carolina's defense is absolute trash right now and if Gabbert simply doesn't turn the ball over, MJD is capable of putting on a show. Also worth noting is that Gabbert can't really play any worse than Luke McCown, so it's not like you have to downgrade the Jags here based on the rookie QB. Also of note is that, for whatever reason, the Jaguars defense has been nearly impossible for a couple of good running backs - Chris Johnson and Shonne Green - to do anything against.
Probably value in backing the Jags here but as of this second I can't say I'm very interested in either side here.
Not seeing a line out yet on the Giants-Eagles. Will get to that in the next post. Hoping to get the 4 o'clocks up tomorrow night, however, it's very likely going to have to wait until sometime Friday morning-afternoon.
Bengals -1.5
O/U 40.5
Obviously, the Bengals have been good to me so far going 2-0 ATS. Now it's time to avoid the Bengals - better jump off before the train crashes right? Well, call me stubborn but I'm not so sure...
First of all, we could give San Fransisco a pass for losing a heartbreaker to the Cowboys on Sunday. The Cowboys, after all, are much more talented than Cincy, that I'll grant. But still, with the Cowboys on the West Coast, Dez Bryant out and Tony Romo missing time/playing through a punctured lung - aren't you supposed to win that game? Now they head to the East Coast for a 1 o'clock kick against a team I still feel is underrated. While the 49ers did shut down Seattle and Dallas on the ground, neither team was able to get anything going in their other games either. Cincy meanwhile has a decent run game. It won't bowl you over, but they're likely to pose more of a threat which is bad news for a defense that was just exposed in the secondary last week. Offensively, the 49ers haven't done much right all year. All of their scores last week were the result of short fields. In his two starts under Jim Harbaugh's tutelage Alex Smith so far managed to throw for 120 and 180 yards respectively. Last week Dallas sacked him 6 times. The 49ers have major deficiencies. The only thing they have so far appeared capable of doing is stopping the run - against two teams who struggled in their other games to do the same. Fact is, their win came against arguably the league's worst team in the Seahawks. They might not be a worse team than Cincy, but I'm certainly not convinced they're better. And situationally, you can't much beat the east coast team hosting a west coast team at 1 o'clock.
It needs to be said that so far Cincy has faced two of the AFC's worst teams - Cleveland and Denver - and only won one. AJ Green is a bigtime playmaker but still has much to prove and had a bad drop late last week. Benson doesn't really have home run hitting ability. Dalton looked good last week but it was against a Denver defense that simply isn't very good right now. If San Fran continues to stop the run, can you trust Andy Dalton to convert 2nd + 3rd and longs?
The value is on Cincy here which makes it Bengals or nothing as far as I'm concerned. Not saying I am definitely going back to the well here...but not saying I'm not....
Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots
Pats -9
O/U 53
Well, I'll be on hand for this one so I'm hoping that the Bills have a prayer. Even the most optimistic, kool-aid sippin', stunnershades wearin', Tom Brady hatin', Ryan Fitzpatrick lovin' Bills fan seems to be having a hard time seeing any way the Bills can compete here.
I'll say this much in defense of the Bills and the points - New England's defense has actually looked substantially worse than I expected so far. And the Bills, somehow, have been an unstoppable force offensively. Part of it, no doubt, was facing KC and the Raiders. Still though, it's hard to ignore 41 and 38 point performances at the professional level. They have been running all over the league for quite some time now (this year and last) and New England, when you take out the joke that is Mike Tolbert, struggled to stop Ryan Matthews and the rest of San Diego's rushing attack last week. In week 1, Reggie Bush was pretty effective. It's not ridiculous to expect another good game out of Fred Jackson. The Patriots biggest weakness, of course, has been against the pass. The Bills proved last week that they're more than happy trading points - and you have to really ask yourself if you want to lay 9 points with a secondary that has stopped no one, against a team that is averaging nearly 40 points per game.
That is about all I can give in defense of a Bills cover at this point though. Like I've said before - why bother trying to beat Tom Brady right now? Doesn't it just seem like there are better ways to go about making money in the NFL? If I couldn't take 7 with San Diego, I just don't see how (even at home) I can take 9 with Buffalo. They couldn't stop Jason Campbell for crying out loud.
Overall, small, probably biased, lean toward the Bills, but overall a stay away game.
New Orleans Saints vs. Houston Texans
Saints -3.5
O/U 53
Over/Under seems awfully high doesn't it? Same number as Bills/Pats? I get that Schaub/Johnson can be lethal and every game New Orleans plays in threatens to be high scoring. Still, in New Orleans, the Saints defense gets a big boost from the crowd. You would think that the Texans will look to establish their power running game early and often. Yes, I expect Andre J to have a big game, but I don't know here...the Texans defense looks pretty serious to me. I know that it was Kerry Collins and Chad Henne, but Houston right now is giving up the fewest passing yards per game. Just seems like a very high total for two teams likely to do a fair amount of running.
As for who to like here - I want to believe that there is a touch of value in Houston catching over a FG...but I really think a wise gambler is going to make Houston prove it before diving in on them at a short price in one of the toughest atmospheres in the entire league.
At the same time I just could not back the Saints here. For one, I feel they are overrated. Their blitzing defense is just a sham that will get exposed against most of the better offenses they face and here comes one. And I just like Houston to be very good this year. Having seen nothing to tell me the opposite, I don't intend on getting cute here.
Cleveland Browns vs. Miami Dolphins
Browns -2.5
O/U 41
Have been saying I'd like to find a spot to catch some value on the Dolphins and this is looking like a possibility. Note that backing Chad Henne on the road is - like drinking Guinness - only for the bold. Fortunately, I love Guinness, and I also love the Dolphins this week.
Probably will have more eventually but the premise is pretty simple:
A) The Dolphins are "dirtied up" - particularly on defense - after getting drilled by two of the league's premier units in the Patriots and Texans.
B) The Dolphins offense so far this season looks leaps and bounds improved upon last years version.
C) They unveiled Dan Thomas last week and the results were highly promising. They will probably have to hide him on passing downs but he looks like the perfect compliment to Reggie Bush.
D) Their two performances, despite both being losses, they competed with New England and Houston. That is miles ahead of what Cleveland has done so far, losing by 10 at home to Cincy and beating a helpless Colts team, narrowly.
E) The line, being under 3, says a lot to me.
Honestly, if it were later in the year and the weather uglier I'd be much more concerned about Miami on the road here. But from what I've watched of these two teams, I just don't think they are near each other in terms of talent.
Tennessee Titans vs. Denver Broncos
Titans -7
O/U 42
The Titans just beat the Ravens by 13 at home. Do I really need to give you any more reason not to bet Denver here?
I really don't know what to make of Tennessee at this point. They have some explosive playmakers in Kenny Britt and Chris Johnson. Their defense has shut down a pair of inconsistent offenses and quarterbacks.
To me, the Broncos offense still has too many playmakers in Brandon Lloyd, Knowshon Moreno (not sure of his status yet) and a capable quarterback in Kyle Orton to lay 7 with a Tennessee team that is just a mixed bag at this point.
Overall, this is a game that screams stay away to me and I plan on doing just that.
Minnesota Vikings vs. Detroit Lions
Lions -3.5
O/U 44.5
Patience is key in the NFL. It's such a matchup league that you have to be careful about your opinions. It's not enough to just be right about a certain team. You need to be right - and then find the right spot to prove it. I've been burned in the past chasing my opinions. I can remember week after week betting against Vince Young before, getting burnt time and again. Was I wrong that Vince Young wasn't a great NFL quarterback? Probably not. But I let one opinion put the blinkers on all the other handicapping angles to consider when looking for an angle worthy of a bet.
Well, everyone's favorite darling the Detroit Lions are extremely overhyped to me. To be fair, they ripped up the Bucs defense in week one with relative ease. But as I have already noted I really think that they are a nightmare for Tampa's defense to deal with. This week they will face an interesting test as they take to the road to face Minnesota.
First off, Minnesota is desperate for a win this week. At 0-2, they simply cannot afford to fall any further. Last week, they seemingly had Tampa Bay dead by the half, leading 17-0. A disaster of a second half saw Tampa come all the way back on them for the win.
They similarly blew a 17-7 lead to San Diego on the road in week 1.
A breeze through Minnesota's stats reveals that the more things change the more they seem to stay the same. So far this year they are running it very well offensively, but can't get anything going through the air. Defensively, they are still very stout against the run and still vulnerable against the pass.
Minnesota seems to be what you expect - a solid but unspectacular team. The fact that neither Phil Rivers nor Josh Freeman blew the doors off them gives me reason enough to think about taking a stab against Matt Stafford and the Lions. I'm just not entirely sure what the Lions have accomplished. They beat the same Bucs team that came back on Minnesota - but their style and weapons makes them much more lethal against the Tampa-2 than Minnesota, who basically plays right into what Tampa tries to accomplish.
Lost in all the hoopla surrounding the Jamaal Charles injury and the huge numbers Detroit ended up putting up is that the Chiefs actually outplayed Detroit in the first quarter last Sunday. Detroit's first TD came only after a Stafford interception in which KC FS Jon McGraw, fumbled it back to Detroit during his return. The Lions offense was pretty quiet the rest of the way while the Chiefs were churning out nice gains, settling for a short FG once (opting for a 33 yard FG instead of going for it on 4th and 1) and missing a 44 yarder(again opting to not go for it on 4th and 2) . In the second quarter, the Lions offense finally woke up thanks to good field position and scored a quick TD moving ahead 14-3. KC moved it right back down the field on the Detroit defense before Cassel threw a pick on 3rd and 4 at the Lions 29. Detroit turned that into a FG for a 17-3 lead and at that point KC really was forced to abandon the run game. When they did that they lost balance and Matt Cassel began to get hit left and right while turning it over just as much. Like I said about Pittsburgh in the Baltimore game - things snowballed. KC wasn't a great team before the season. They're substantially worse now with all their major injuries. And yet, I don't think the final score is any indication of them being all that over-matched against this Lions team last Sunday. I think it was more a case of some bad breaks, conservative play-calling and for lack of a better term "snowballing." Do I think KC was really going to beat Detroit if some things went better early? No, of course not. But do I think that Detroit's performance was one of this suddenly dominant "breakout team" that everyone else seems to take for granted? Well, let's just say I hear substantially less talk about a Bills team that essentially did the same, with a healthy Charles, at Arrowhead a week prior.
Give me the Vikings and a FG + a hook at home. Maybe the Lions will prove too explosive. But this is NFL value betting at its finest in my eyes.
Carolina Panthers vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Panthers -3.5
O/U 43
Yuck. Two rookie QB's squaring off here. Hard not to want to side with Cam Newton after he rattled off back-to-back 400 yard games and will enjoy homefield advantage here. It's a tough call though because Carolina's defense is absolute trash right now and if Gabbert simply doesn't turn the ball over, MJD is capable of putting on a show. Also worth noting is that Gabbert can't really play any worse than Luke McCown, so it's not like you have to downgrade the Jags here based on the rookie QB. Also of note is that, for whatever reason, the Jaguars defense has been nearly impossible for a couple of good running backs - Chris Johnson and Shonne Green - to do anything against.
Probably value in backing the Jags here but as of this second I can't say I'm very interested in either side here.
Not seeing a line out yet on the Giants-Eagles. Will get to that in the next post. Hoping to get the 4 o'clocks up tomorrow night, however, it's very likely going to have to wait until sometime Friday morning-afternoon.
