Texans/Jags line movement -- any injuries? Factors I am not aware of?

[chonce]

So I feel foolish. I took Houston - 6 early. The line is down to 4(-105) and you can even get 3.5 (-118) at 5 Dimes.

So that line suggests the Texans are only 1-pt favs on a neutral field? I know they aren't good, but the Jags have lost 11 games or more in each of the last 6 seasons (including this one) and look awful.

Obviously we see reverse line movement all the time, and this may just be a combination of sharps and the books betting on the Jags (as they often do). But this is a pretty large movement.... any injuries or anything I am missing?


The movement has me both scared, and yet tempted to take the friendlier line all at once.

 

[chonce]

For fun I went to Reddit's Jaguars fans. They have a prediction thread. The responses are telling: "apathy," "Indifference," "Loss," (all 3 separate posts!)


Some more:
"Death, Taxes, Pick Six."

"We're... We're gonna win? Right? Anyone? Ok......"

"Suck."






https://www.reddit.com/r/Jaguars/comments/5iwge8/prediction_thread_jaguars_vs_texans/

 

[ShortBusDriver7]

5 is a dead # so crossing that isn't too hard but yeah definitely a sizable move. I bet you'll see them come over the top on Texans -4 tmrw

 

[seldomseen]

I was going to take the Jags in sc. Most everything I look at was pointing towards them. They've always played hard for Gus but now officially in lame duck status it's hard to say how much motivation they have. Good luck on your play.

 

[bradyisgod]

Read a funny stat on RJ Bells twitter:

Blake Bortles: 11 career pick 6's...10 career wins
Tom Brady: 12 career pick 6's...201 career wins

With that said Osweiler ain't no Tom Brady. I think the Texans win but they never seem to beat teams for more than about a touchdown. Tough game to bet, I think you're on the right side. I'm passing this one but it starts to get tempting at 4 or 3. 5 and up I'm just passing. I know the Texans pretty well...they play great at home. I'd feel good about it.

 

[OverThinker]

Think it more sharp money than injuries but I do think Texans starting te being out does impact it a little, he is after all about the only guy that scrub qb has had success throwing to. No clue what u saw in hou laying 6? I grabbed jags at that number cause this feels like a game like the 1st decided by a fg. Bortles probably throw a pick 6 that cost jags the win but honestly despite the records there just isn't really much difference in these teams, I make it a pickem on a nuetral.

 

[chonce]

Think it more sharp money than injuries but I do think Texans starting te being out does impact it a little, he is after all about the only guy that scrub qb has had success throwing to. No clue what u saw in hou laying 6? I grabbed jags at that number cause this feels like a game like the 1st decided by a fg. Bortles probably throw a pick 6 that cost jags the win but honestly despite the records there just isn't really much difference in these teams, I make it a pickem on a nuetral.

Ever since I read about Bortles drinking problem I have been betting against them I don't know if the drinking problem is true, but it is wisely speculated on Jags forums/blogs.

Anyway, it is has only failed me once, vs KC. Betting against Jags has worked out well for me.

Some thoughts:

Houston has beaten Jags 5 straight times, and by 6 or more in 4 of those. Jax is 1-4 ATS in last 5 (and I have been profiting off it. HOU is 4-1-1 ATS at home. Jax has only covered in 3 of their last 9 road games, and have only won 2 of the last 23 road games.

Texans are fighting for their playoff lives, are 5-0 at home and 4-0 in division games. Jax is 1-6 on the road, and 1-2 in the division.

So yeah, a lot to like at 6, at 4, whatever.

 

[OverThinker]

Ever since I read about Bortles drinking problem I have been betting against them I don't know if the drinking problem is true, but it is wisely speculated on Jags forums/blogs.

Anyway, it is has only failed me once, vs KC. Betting against Jags has worked out well for me.

Some thoughts:

Houston has beaten Jags 5 straight times, and by 6 or more in 4 of those. Jax is 1-4 ATS in last 5 (and I have been profiting off it. HOU is 4-1-1 ATS at home. Jax has only covered in 3 of their last 9 road games, and have only won 2 of the last 23 road games.

Texans are fighting for their playoff lives, are 5-0 at home and 4-0 in division games. Jax is 1-6 on the road, and 1-2 in the division.

So yeah, a lot to like at 6, at 4, whatever.

Odd cause I have faired really well betting on them, lol. Obviously I pick my spots but it mostly on the road when they catching upwards of a td. Most their home games have been lined terribly but when these guys catching a decent number I like playing them as I think how well their defense has played goes unnoticed due to the struggles of bortles and it usually keeps them in games. Then there the added bonus of bortles being king of garbage time so even if they down more than the spread teams are inclined to play prevent mode and let them sneak in the backdoor.

Their recordds mean nothing to me as I'm just looking for a cover and jags have done that for me quite well around this number. There just no way a team as offensively challenged as Houston w a qb every bit as bad as bortles (worse imo) should be laying 6, this gonna be a stinker, bortles stupidity keeps me from thinking jags actually win but I expect it to be decided by a fg.

 

[OverThinker]

All that said at +4 I would pass, if it actually gets down to 3 I would play hou and try to middle.

 

[jasonc69]

People keep putting their money on these bad teams and it keeps biting them in the ass. Play Houston or pass. No way you can bet Jags and feel good about it.

 

[OverThinker]

People keep putting their money on these bad teams and it keeps biting them in the ass. Play Houston or pass. No way you can bet Jags and feel good about it.[/QUOTE

im something like 4-1 taking jags this season, it real easy to feel good about it as they have covered most the games they caught a decent amount of points. Now they getting 6 (were when I bet them) against a Houston team that despite the records really no better of a team.

 

[dasyhrd]

Isnt it going to be Battle Red jerseys for Houston?

Thought they usually show up on these days.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_Red_Day

 

[X-Files]

Hou -3.5 -101 now at Pinnacle

-179 ML

 

[Twisted]

Hou -3.5 -101 now at Pinnacle

-179 ML

They better watch it. Hou may cover soon if it keeps droppin

 

[OverThinker]

People keep putting their money on these bad teams and it keeps biting them in the ass. Play Houston or pass. No way you can bet Jags and feel good about it.[/QUOTE

im something like 4-1 taking jags this season, it real easy to feel good about it as they have covered most the games they caught a decent amount of points. Now they getting 6 (were when I bet them) against a Houston team that despite the records really no better of a team.

Chalk up another easy jags winner. Love being told how I can't win betting on certain teams.

 

[X-Files]

The line movement on this game was a signal to lay off Houston.

 

[OverThinker]

The line movement on this game was a signal to lay off Houston.

It a shame bortles so bad, only thing kept me from ml was figuring they find way to blow it. How the hell you throw for less than 100 yards in today's NFL is beyond me. Jags defense is quietly a really strong unit tho, love when I can catch close to a td with them.

 

[Biz]

The line movement on this game was a signal to lay off Houston.

+1

Over 80% of tickets on Houston, yet the line dropped 2+ points

 

[PeePee]

Line moved bc Vegas just found out Assweiler is bad... How the hell u get yanked at home in 1h against the Jax.
Smh

 

[bradyisgod]

The Jags returned a 100 yard punt. I passed on this game but if I bet the Jags there would be no way in hell I would be happy with my bet. Jags don't cover this game without it and I can count on one hand how many times I see that a year. I think the Texans were still the right play. The Jags are 6-7 ATS this year. You're not exactly printing money betting them.