Testing new nba formula

[TheRealest]

I worked on this last season and had it hitting at 60% and with a quarter of the season gone by, I feel like I am getting some accurate numbers. I'm posting these to track the picks and work on a filter given the value for each play.

Actual Line My Line Difference

DET -4.5 WSH -5 9.5
CLE-11 CLE -12 1
CHI -8 CHI -2.5 5.5
UTAH-4 UTAH-4 0
SA-1.5 DAL-4 5.5
HOU-4 ATL-1 5-8 (line originally 7 but down bc artest injury)
PHO-7 PHO-5 2
POR-5 Pick 5
LAL-12 LAL-10 2

Washington, New York, Dallas, and Orlando would be picks of +5 value, making them plays.

 

[TheRealest]

3-1 start to the season, with Washington and Orlando winning as dogs, NY covering, and Dallas unfortunately laid an egg in overtime.

 

[TheRealest]

12/10 plays

Ind-3
Nets Pick
NO -10
CLE -7
MEM-5
SA-3
DEN-10
MIL-1
LAL-10

Plays today with +5 value, Pacers, Knicks, Hawks
Grizzlies very close to being a play.

Good luck. (3-1 ytd)

 

[TheRealest]

12/11

2-1 last night on plays. 1-0 on leans making system 5-2, 1-0 leans

as far as tonight goes..

POR/Utah pick
DAL -8
BOS -9

No value tonight, see you Friday.

 

[Broncos625]

Nicely done. Keep it going.:toast:

 

[TheRealest]

Friday Plays

My lines

ORL -3
LAL -11.5
DET Pick
CHI -7.5

Plays ORL +2, SAC +16.5, IND +7, CHI -2.5

Leans ATL +3, MIN +7

Good luck tonight

(5-2) plays (1-0) leans ytd

 

[TheRealest]

8-3 ytd

3-1 on plays... orlando, indiana, and sacramento covered but chicago decided to stop playing defense after the first quarter. leans went 1-1 with atlanta beating my hometown heat and san antonio barely covering against minny..

i have been putting 1 unit on each play, but am just studying the leans to see if there is any value to them. i expect a strong season, the numbers suggest 60% is a strong possibility.

 

[TheRealest]

correction.. sa covered by 4, for some reason i was thinking they won by only 9.. not as close as i thought, sorry

 

[SEBBA]

Nice work Realest. Will definitely be tracking this thread.

 

[LeaveNoDoubt]

nice work realest.. look forward to your future posts! bol the rest of the season

 

[TheRealest]

Sat PLays

Thanks for the support guys, lets keep it going all year..

My lines with value

CLE -10
IND -3
ORL -.5
NY -4


DET -4

Plays- Cle -4.5, IND+4.5, Orl+4.5, NY+3
Leans- Det-1

(8-3) plays (2-1) leans ytd

 

[Jetplane]

good work man, just keep at what you're doing... dont let other ppl influence the formula--i have no working formula in nba so it's just straight capping for me. I'm gonna ride your plays tho! get emmmmm.

 

[poopah]

Nice start bro, but if you actually have Cleveland -10 at atlanta, then whatever you are using to come up with your lines is flawed. this game should be a pickem, atlanta will win outright.

 

[hannowsky77]

Nice start bro, but if you actually have Cleveland -10 at atlanta, then whatever you are using to come up with your lines is flawed. this game should be a pickem, atlanta will win outright.

tell me how this should be a pickem lol
<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" align=center border=0><TBODY><TR class=Sport_data><TD class=AlternatingData1>Cleveland's Overall Scoring vs Atlanta's Overall Defense</TD><TD class=AlternatingData1>103.2</TD><TD class=AlternatingData1>4</TD><TD class=AlternatingData1>95.6</TD><TD class=AlternatingData1>10</TD></TR><TR class=Sport_data><TD class=AlternatingData2>Cleveland's Away Scoring vs Atlanta's Home Defense</TD><TD class=AlternatingData2>98.9</TD><TD class=AlternatingData2>12</TD><TD class=AlternatingData2>94.4</TD><TD class=AlternatingData2>12</TD></TR><TR class=Sport_data><TD class=AlternatingData1>Cleveland's Road Rebounds vs Atlanta's Home Rebounds Allowed</TD><TD class=AlternatingData1>43.9</TD><TD class=AlternatingData1>4</TD><TD class=AlternatingData1>36.6</TD><TD class=AlternatingData1>3</TD></TR><TR class=Sport_data><TD class=AlternatingData2>Atlanta's Overall Scoring vs Cleveland's Overall Defense</TD><TD class=AlternatingData2>97.0</TD><TD class=AlternatingData2>20</TD><TD class=AlternatingData2>89.7</TD><TD class=AlternatingData2>1</TD></TR><TR class=Sport_data><TD class=AlternatingData1>Atlanta's Home Scoring vs Cleveland's Road Defense</TD><TD class=AlternatingData1>99.5</TD><TD class=AlternatingData1>15</TD><TD class=AlternatingData1>90.3</TD><TD class=AlternatingData1>1</TD></TR><TR class=Sport_data><TD class=AlternatingData2>Atlanta's Home Rebounds vs Cleveland's Road Rebounds Allowed</TD><TD class=AlternatingData2>39.5</TD><TD class=AlternatingData2>27</TD><TD class=AlternatingData2>37.5</TD><TD class=AlternatingData2>2</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

 

[relativity_x]

my formula actually has cleveland winning by 9.

 

[TheRealest]

As far as the Cleveland game goes, my numbers showed value on the Cavs. I don't see how the game could be considered a pick em even with homecourt advantage. Half the ppl in attendance are Lebron fans anyway.. I played it even with the injury to Big Z because I thought sideshow bob and ben wallace and either jackson or hickson would step up their game against an average Atlanta frontcourt. Cleveland was in a tough position playing its 2nd night in a row on the road, but that's why there was value in the line. I thought it was strange when the line dropped, but the same thing happened with Orlando @ Clippers a few days ago and Magic got the easy cover. You can't win them all.

2-2 on plays
1-0 on leans

10-5 plays 3-1 leans ytd

 

[JoltinJoe]

I like what I'm seeing so far, looks good!

I was wondering where you get your stats for your formula?

 

[TheRealest]

Dsquared- statfox, everythings up to date and pretty detailed

new orleans would have been a play, didn't realize it was such an early start..

miami -1
my line miam-6

 

[TheRealest]

Yesterday went 0-1 on posted plays making record 10-6, 2-1 leans.. NO was a play, but didnt look at nba till after the nfl games started. Also had a lean to both Minn and OKC, could have sworn I posted it I guess not. I'll obviously keep those 3 out of the record. Luckily I hit a $20 parlay using Cowboys, Thunder, and Twolves.

After I have 50 leans for the year, I will look at their record and if it is at 60% or greater, I will readjust the criteria for plays and they will become plays as well.

Tonight- Knicks +8.5
Leans-Orl -2, Sac-4, Ind +1

 

[TheRealest]

typo on last post, leans 3-1 before tonight. nate robinson got hot in the 4th and knicks escaped with the cover. 3-0 tonight on leans making it a nice lil sweep.

11-6 plays
6-1 leans

jameer nelson stole the show in the 2nd half, draining 3s all day after gs started to make a little run. i really like what i've seen of courtney lee this year for the magic. hes gotten some more playing time with pietrus out and has played well off the bench. he doesn't force anything on the offensive end and plays solid defense and always hustling. magic continue to impress me but im not sold on them in the playoff.. in the final minutes, who is going to create their own shot or get to the free throw line? howards a ft liability, lewis doesnt have the killer instinct, thats not hedos game, maybe jameer? hes never really shown that ability consistently before. theyll be interesting to watch down the stretch. right now, i just cant see them beating boston or cleveland in a 7 game series.. ok, im done with my magic rant.. see you tomorrow.