What you say is correct BigTime but with Kentucky, Missouri and Vandy remaining after UAB, I'm just wondering how
serious they will take UAB. Big 41-21 win over South Carolina just might have the Vol players overlooking little UAB
from Birmingham. Interesting stat I like is UAB is No. 11 nationally in scoring defense. Big Brother Alabama is No. 10.
My view is Tennessee better be ready to play or they will be in for a long day.
*Tennessee is 2-11 ATS vs nonconference teams off a double-digit straight up win.
- Joined
- Sep 20, 2004
- Messages
- 6,788
- Reaction score
- 430
100% agree with this. UAB will take this down to the wire in my opinion.
I am a stats guy. One thing I do to help me is cover up the names of the teams to remove the bias. It looks light only because you are talking about an SEC team with a big name versus a smaller P-5 conference who disbanded their program a few years ago. UAB has a lot of talent. Again, they don't play them on paper, but if the line is 10.5, there is a reason for it. It's not to "draw Tennessee money". It's because linesmakers think that will get somewhat equal action. Thus, linesmakers believe that UAB has the talent to hang.
This is not the same Tennessee team that lost to Georgia State. Tennessee will win this game by 2 touchdowns going away. Their going to run it right down the throught of UAB’s so overrated number 11 on paper defense. UAB has played absolutely no one. Here’s who they’ve played.
Alabama State 3-4
Akron 0-8
South Alabama 1-7
Rice 0-8
UTSA 3-4
Old Dom. 1-7
AND the only loss they have is to the only team they’ve played with a winning record.
Western Kentucky 5-3. Bet them 20-13.
not hard to be the #11 defensive with that cupcake schedule.
listen anything can happen. But I’ll put my money on a team that is battle tested on the biggest stages against some of the best. BAMA, GEORGIA,FLORIDA and have learned from and gotten better after it.
Alabama State 3-4
Akron 0-8
South Alabama 1-7
Rice 0-8
UTSA 3-4
Old Dom. 1-7
AND the only loss they have is to the only team they’ve played with a winning record.
Western Kentucky 5-3. Bet them 20-13.
not hard to be the #11 defensive with that cupcake schedule.
listen anything can happen. But I’ll put my money on a team that is battle tested on the biggest stages against some of the best. BAMA, GEORGIA,FLORIDA and have learned from and gotten better after it.
- Joined
- Jan 16, 2010
- Messages
- 17,864
- Reaction score
- 49
Agreed.
Ok. First of all if Maurer would have played in the first two games of the season Tennessee would be 5-3 right now not 3-5. Second Guarantano is horrible as a quarterback and as a player. He had a horrible attitude and finally Pruitt had enough. Maurer is a freshman quarterback with promise. He’s managed their games fairly well considering last year he was playing High School football and this year he had Tennessee poised against 3 top ten teams 3 out of 4 weeks in a row. Georgia is hard to even count that was his first start and I’m sure he didn’t realize who or what he had played in til Tuesday film practice. So yeah Tennessee has lost to 3 good football teams in the top ten in the nation that I don’t think there’s a hand full of other teams that could beat those teams either.
- Joined
- Sep 20, 2004
- Messages
- 6,788
- Reaction score
- 430
Your explanation for Tennessee covering was that UAB had played a weak schedule. I simply pointed out that Tennessee lost to every good team they played....so its disingenuous to use that approach as your rationalization.
I'll bite in this discussion. Usually I won't because in the scheme of things, this is one game out of a long season, So, unless I am putting the life savings on it, which I would never do, it doesn't much matter.
UAB schedule not as tough, no doubt. But they have been dominant on D against these lesser foes, especially last 4 games. What happened in September is somewhat irrelevant. If they were average, then scheduling is an argument. Will they be as dominant against Tennessee, probably not, but I wouldn't call Tennessee offense a juggernaut. Same on the other side of the ball. Tennessee no juggernaut on D either. This is a matchup between a mid tier SEC team against an upper tier non Power 5 team. I can guarantee that Tennessee has more 5 and 4 star recruits and more talent. But that isn't automatic blowout.
I come back to the discussion about the line itself. Linesmakers don't hand out gifts because they feel like the betting masses need a win. Not how it works. Laughable to think it does. The opening line is where they think the difference between these 2 teams is. We wager because we think we know better, and sometimes we do and sometimes we don't. But, if you "know better" 60% of the time, you are a genius, which still means you miss a lot of these games.
UAB schedule not as tough, no doubt. But they have been dominant on D against these lesser foes, especially last 4 games. What happened in September is somewhat irrelevant. If they were average, then scheduling is an argument. Will they be as dominant against Tennessee, probably not, but I wouldn't call Tennessee offense a juggernaut. Same on the other side of the ball. Tennessee no juggernaut on D either. This is a matchup between a mid tier SEC team against an upper tier non Power 5 team. I can guarantee that Tennessee has more 5 and 4 star recruits and more talent. But that isn't automatic blowout.
I come back to the discussion about the line itself. Linesmakers don't hand out gifts because they feel like the betting masses need a win. Not how it works. Laughable to think it does. The opening line is where they think the difference between these 2 teams is. We wager because we think we know better, and sometimes we do and sometimes we don't. But, if you "know better" 60% of the time, you are a genius, which still means you miss a lot of these games.
UAB's schedule is a joke. I believe it's 150+... But you play who you have on schedule. However, to include that into a below average offense (statwise) is concerning. Yes, their D is good but it's debatable when stack up against big boys.
At 3-5 and needing 3 more W to make bowl, I don't think they would take anyone lightly.
At 3-5 and needing 3 more W to make bowl, I don't think they would take anyone lightly.
Heatwave nice write up. I’m with you brother. I just think Tennessee wins by more than -10. And now -12. Nothing is a guarantee. I remember the good ole days when I played a little step up ball. Playing bigger, stronger, faster guys well it always made a difference. You miss more tackles. You get fewer sacks etc. I was a defensive back. But I always new where the game was won. In the trenches. And I still believe that’s one of the biggest differences you’ll still find in college football from a smaller school like UAB and a bigger SEC school like Tennessee. All of a sudden UAB’s quarterback will fell more pressure than he’s felt all year. And that UAB D line will be looking around at each other like dam. We had 4 sacks last week and we can’t get off a block in this game. ����
YTD yardage rank vs opponents totals (per Phil Steele):
UAB: 31 o / 39 d / 30 total
UT: 88 o / 38 d / 50 total
UAB likes to run the ball (2-1 run/pass ratio) but is averaging -.7 ypc less than their opponents average, so not a sign of a strong run game (UT is +.6 on rushing D). UT seems to be figuring things out offensively as of late.
I also wonder how much this game matters to UAB in the grand scheme of things. Think UT wins by 17 or so.
UAB: 31 o / 39 d / 30 total
UT: 88 o / 38 d / 50 total
UAB likes to run the ball (2-1 run/pass ratio) but is averaging -.7 ypc less than their opponents average, so not a sign of a strong run game (UT is +.6 on rushing D). UT seems to be figuring things out offensively as of late.
I also wonder how much this game matters to UAB in the grand scheme of things. Think UT wins by 17 or so.
Blaze a trail
Since 2017, UAB has been an underdog 12 times, covering eight of the games and winning seven outright. However, the two times UAB was a 'dog versus an SEC team, the Blazers failed to cover: +17.5 at Texas A&M last year and +11 in 2017 at Florida.
This is a small right up on my ESPN + account. ^^^
TN was missing Batuli at the beginning of the season, new OC, and they were trying to find a starting 5 on the o line. Batuli helps set the defense, who was Defensive player of the week, and TN now has a set starting five that looks dominate the past few weeks (look up rush yards against bama). Maurer will not play, but look for the same QB play they had against SC with rotating JT, JG, and wild cat with Jennings.
I go to every Vols home game and I will be on UAB if the line gets to 14. But look for UT to run it up in the first half, and then get the backups in to rest starters and a UAB Backdoor cover will follow.
Play TN 1st and UAB if the spread gets that high. If not then pass
Since 2017, UAB has been an underdog 12 times, covering eight of the games and winning seven outright. However, the two times UAB was a 'dog versus an SEC team, the Blazers failed to cover: +17.5 at Texas A&M last year and +11 in 2017 at Florida.
This is a small right up on my ESPN + account. ^^^
TN was missing Batuli at the beginning of the season, new OC, and they were trying to find a starting 5 on the o line. Batuli helps set the defense, who was Defensive player of the week, and TN now has a set starting five that looks dominate the past few weeks (look up rush yards against bama). Maurer will not play, but look for the same QB play they had against SC with rotating JT, JG, and wild cat with Jennings.
I go to every Vols home game and I will be on UAB if the line gets to 14. But look for UT to run it up in the first half, and then get the backups in to rest starters and a UAB Backdoor cover will follow.
Play TN 1st and UAB if the spread gets that high. If not then pass
