58-41 FOR THE YEAR.....11-2 LAST TWO WEEKS.
Ohio St. vs. Michigan
Since Jim Tressel has come to town, the Buckeyes have been able to reverse the curse the Wolverines seemingly had on them and have won the last two encounters. Ohio St. will need to bring everything to the table to win this year´s contest in Ann Arbor but I think we can expect them to do that. Tressel is developing a reputation for being a big game ball coach. Ohio St. is the most criticized 10-1 team in college football history and it´s because of their failure to stomp opponents. Their unwillingness or inability to beat teams by three, four and five touchdowns has led many to believe that they are not a good football team. Nothing could be further from the truth. Tressel plays strategic football and like any good coach, he treats every game the same. He doesn´t wait until the big ball games to teach his team how to play four quarters and win it in the end. The Buckeyes do it every game and when the big games do come, Ohio St. is well schooled in how to take it in the 4th quarter. Look for them to piss the entire country off again by winning this game in a similar fashion.
Michigan is now the team that is scared in this series. They have lost the last two and they are the favorites going into this contest. I think the oddsmakers have done the Wolverines an injustice here by hanging this big line on them. Ohio St. has only lost one game by more than a touchdown since Jim Tressel arrived on campus. Michigan is the ultimate conservative team when they get into a big game so it´s going to be difficult for them to pull away and stay away in this contest. You need only look at how Michigan St. almost worked a comeback against them and realize that the Wolverines should not be favored by a touchdown in this contest. I also wonder how the Wolverines will respond to playing in a close game. Michigan has played in three games decided by six points or less this season and they have lost two of those games. We know how Ohio St. will respond in this situation but how will Michigan? Win or lose for the Wolverines, I think they are laying too many points in this contest. Take Ohio St.
Ohio St. 22 Michigan 17
Penn St. vs. Michigan St
The line in this game is absurd. The public and oddsmakers are in such a hurry to keep Penn St. together that they will find the slightest positive and turn it into the mighty comeback of the Nittany Lions. What business does Penn St. have being anything less than a double digit underdog in this contest. Penn St. is a miserable 3-8 football team with zero wins on the road and zero wins against teams with winning records. Just because they clobbered a pathetic Indiana team at home last week, doesn´t mean they get to sit at the captain´s table this week. All but one of Penn St.´s road games this season have resulted in double digit losses and the fact that they are less than a touchdown dog in this game is foolery.
Michigan St. is on a three game losing streak which has contributed some to this soft line. Over the last three weeks, the Spartans have faced the pride of the conference in Michigan, Ohio St. and Wisconsin. That´s the major reason why they have not been able to come up with a win. The Spartans are embarrassed by last week´s performance and will be out to take out on the Nittany Lions. Michigan St. has dominated Penn St. in recent history outscoring them 145-67 in earning three straight wins. Look for the domination to continue as Michigan St. pounds Penn St. again.
Michigan St. 28 Penn St. 14
Northwestern vs. Illinois
Uh oh, somebody made a boo-boo. Northwestern has won five games but that still does not give them a pass to be road favorites especially by more than a field goal. Sure, the Wildcats got away with it at Indiana earlier this year but they had to fight like hell to get it and in that game they were only 2.5 point favorites. This week, the Wildcats have crossed the magic number of three which will get them into trouble. Off of that win to Penn St., I dare say that the Wildcats will come into this game overconfident as hard as that may be to believe. Northwestern is not a good enough football team to win when playing with too much confidence and covering two games in one season as a road favorite may be too much to ask.
Poor Illinois. That 1-10 record sure does look bad but they have had one of the toughest schedules in the country. All but two of their games have come against teams that have winning records. It´s been a tough go at it for them but this is their last home game and last game of the season. This is a chance for them to end the season on a positive note going into next year and have something to work with during the offseason. Illinois will take offense to being underdogs in this game v. Northwestern and will let some pride shine through and will come up with a victory in this contest. Take the home dog in this one.
Illinois 24 Northwestern 21
Oklahoma St. vs. Baylor
No one knows how to close out a season on a bummer like the Baylor Bears. Six of the last seven years, the Bears have ended their season with a game against the Cowboys and six of the last seven years they have ended their year with a blowout loss. Last season, Oklahoma St. hung 63 on Baylor enroute to 63-28 win. I don´t see things being much different this season. Baylor packed it in four weeks ago. Since then, the Bears have been beaten by 56, 28, 48 and 38. Are you counting this all up? That amounts to a loss by an average of 42 points per game. Baylor knows how to lose in style and I see little motivation for them to put up a fight here when they know going in that they are going to take a loss. They will come out with good intentions but the minute they fall behind by two touchdowns, their heads will hang low and the Cowboys´ point total will reach high.
Oklahoma St. needs an impressive win right now. They got one over Kansas last week to end what was a two game losing streak. The Cowboys have been merciless against teams who aren´t very good this year. Oklahoma St. has covered the spread in every game this season that has come against teams with losing records. The Cowboys could have 28 points by the end of the first quarter and they will not look back or feel sorry for Baylor. The Cowboys have three losses on the year and they are looking to get themselves to a high quality bowl game. They aren´t going to ruin their positioning by messing around with Baylor. Oklahoma St. is too soon removed from a 55-16 loss to Texas to overlook any opponent right now.
Oklahoma St. 52 Baylor 17
Kentucky vs. Georgia
Georgia is still thinking about a major bowl game and they went out last week and handled their business v. a very good Auburn football team. I think some of the intensity and spirited play that they exhibited v. the Tigers will show up again this week when they face this Kentucky team. Georgia has been all about defense this season and I think they will use that to smother Kentucky in this contest. Only one team has managed to score more than 17 points against the top defense in the country and I don´t see Kentucky being the team to duplicate that feat. Georgia will create points off of turnovers and have their way against a soft Kentucky defense.
The Wildcats, through some minor miracle, have managed to only play one SEC team thus far that has a winning record and that came at home v. Arkansas. Kentucky will get a rude awakening when they run up against this Georgia bunch and I think they will fold up in the 2nd half. Last year in Lexington, the Bulldogs took a chunk out of Kentucky 52-24 and the Bulldogs have dominated this matchup over the last four years. There´s little reason for me to believe that this year´s 4-6 version of the Kentucky Wildcats are ready to reverse that history. Take Georgia.
Georgia 38 Kentucky 0
Mississippi St. vs. Arkansas
Arkansas has been hot lately reeling off three straight wins and while I know they have the big showdown with LSU next week, I don´t think the Hogs will overlook Mississippi St. here. True the Bulldogs are not a very good football team but Houston Nutt knows that his club struggled with the Bulldogs last season and has reminded his club all week long about it. Arkansas is embarrassed about how close last year´s game was (26-19) and will be out to prove that it was a fluke. Arkansas´ defense will come out to play in this contest and look for the Razorbacks to make several big plays offensively.
It has been another disaster of a year for the Bulldogs who are 2-8. They have not been within sniffing distance of a win over the last four weeks losing each game by an average margin of 33 points. If the Bulldogs can lose by 38 points and get shutout at home by Alabama, you can bet that they can go to Arkansas and get smacked around the field. Mississippi St. is giving up a whopping 44 points per game when they are on the road and there´s little reason for me to believe that they will look like anything other than the same team that has been getting pounded all year long. Take Arkansas.
Arkansas 49 Mississippi St. 13
Iowa vs. Wisconsin
Wisconsin brought out the whipping stick last week v. Michigan St. and pounded the Spartans 56-21. The win was a much needed one for the Badgers as they were on a three game losing streak. Wisconsin is a tough customer at home and they know how to get up for the tough home games. On the season, they have beaten both Michigan St. and Ohio St. at home and they played Purdue down to the last seconds. Wisconsin has found some offense and that´s going to be bad news for Iowa who has struggled a bit defensively in their last two games. The Badgers also remember the 20-3 whipping they took in Iowa City last year and they are hell bent on reversing that outcome. Wisconsin has won three straight in this series at home and I think they make it four in a row this week.
Hats off to Kirk Ferentz for what he has been able to do with an Iowa team that was hit hard by graduation but when you take a hard look at their season they have only the three point win at home over Michigan to hang their hat on. The Hawkeyes are winless on the road this season v. Big Ten opponents and I don´t see why that would change here. Iowa does not have the explosiveness offensively that they had a year ago and that has shown when they have faced quality opponents. Iowa has not scored more than 14 points on the road in their Big-10 games this season and Wisconsin knows how to bring out the defense in these big games. Look for Iowa to take a solid loss in this one.
Wisconsin 24 Iowa 10
Missouri vs. Kansas St.
K-State seems to be back to their old selves after winning five in a row. Their only trouble this season came in the middle of the year when quarterback El Roberson got injured and was a little rusty coming back. Since Roberson has gotten back into the fold, the Wildcats have gotten back to the business of pounding teams and racking up wins. Since the embarrassing loss at home to Marshall earlier in the year, the Wildcats have beaten each home opponent by four touchdowns or more. With this being their last game of the regular season, you can expect Kansas St. to be in blowout mode as they try to cream one last opponent before the post season. No one rolls over teams like the Wildcats. When they sense that they are better than an opponent, Kansas St. really knows how to pour it on and covering the spread becomes an important part of what they do. Last year, K-State destroyed a talented Missouri team 38-0 in their own backyard and left a stain on the Tigers. I think they will use the mental edge of that win to their advantage here and beat Missouri pretty good again.
The Tigers have had a successful season thus far with a record of 7-3 but one bug-a-boo for the Tigers has been their play on the road this year. Missouri is 1-3 SU on the road this year with losses to Colorado and to Kansas by 21 points. It´s been a long time since Missouri has beaten Kansas St. so they are already walking in here with that hanging over their head and while they want revenge for last year´s shut out loss at home, I don´t think they truly believe that they can go out and beat Kansas St. in Manhattan. They will put up the good fight early on but as Kansas St. starts to get their way, Missouri will fall off to the wayside. Take Kansas St. in this contest.
Kansas St. 42 Missouri 17
UAB vs. South Florida
South Florida has suffered only three losses this season and those losses came against Alabama and the two teams who played for the conference title on Thursday Night, TCU and Southern Miss. I am not sure what South Florida´s bowl situation is but I am pretty sure that they are long shots to appear in one this season and that has to anger them. I think this is another opportunity for them to show that they do belong in a bowl game and to take advantage of the opportunity they need to not only beat UAB but do it impressively. South Florida faced the same situation last year and on the heat of a bowl game snub, they went to Houston and clobbered the Cougars 32-14. South Florida has played a lot of games close to the vest this year but I think they are really motivated in this contest and they are playing against a losing UAB team.
The Blazers have played a few good teams tough this year. They had a three game stretch in which they beat Cincinnati bad and then took TCU and Georgia down to the wire. The flip side to that is that they loss to Troy St., was blown out by South Carolina and lost by two touchdowns to a 4-7 Tulane team. I don´t see UAB being able to match the intensity of the South Florida team that they will face on Saturday night and in the end, they are going to make the mistakes to get beat soundly.
South Florida 31 UAB 17
Alabama vs. Auburn
The Auburn Tigers will try to avoid losing their third game in a row this Saturday. It´s been a tough two weeks for Auburn. It wasn´t too long ago that they were in the running for a SEC division title but after taking losses to Mississippi and Georgia, that is out of the question. Now Auburn is fighting to get themselves into a quality bowl game and for them to do that, they will have to roll over the top of the Crimson Tide. There´s no question that Auburn is a talented team but for some reason they have not been able to get the job done vs. the upper echelon teams. Against the lesser teams, the Tigers have gone wild and I think they will do the same in this contest. Auburn is not looking to lose three in a row, especially at the hands of their rivals. Look for Auburn to play some spirited football. Last season, the Tigers beat a more talented Alabama team 17-7 in Tuscaloosa. With this game being back in Auburn, I am looking for the Tigers to put a more severe beating on the Crimson Tide.
Alabama has just one win in their last four games and they have not been able to do much against the winning teams of the SEC. They have fared well against the Kentuckys and Mississippi States of the conference but were routed by Mississippi, Georgia and LSU. I don´t like this Bama team on the road either where they have not had many games. Their lone win came against Mississippi St. and their other two games resulted in two touchdown losses. Take Auburn in this contest.
Auburn 24 Alabama 9
Ohio St. vs. Michigan
Since Jim Tressel has come to town, the Buckeyes have been able to reverse the curse the Wolverines seemingly had on them and have won the last two encounters. Ohio St. will need to bring everything to the table to win this year´s contest in Ann Arbor but I think we can expect them to do that. Tressel is developing a reputation for being a big game ball coach. Ohio St. is the most criticized 10-1 team in college football history and it´s because of their failure to stomp opponents. Their unwillingness or inability to beat teams by three, four and five touchdowns has led many to believe that they are not a good football team. Nothing could be further from the truth. Tressel plays strategic football and like any good coach, he treats every game the same. He doesn´t wait until the big ball games to teach his team how to play four quarters and win it in the end. The Buckeyes do it every game and when the big games do come, Ohio St. is well schooled in how to take it in the 4th quarter. Look for them to piss the entire country off again by winning this game in a similar fashion.
Michigan is now the team that is scared in this series. They have lost the last two and they are the favorites going into this contest. I think the oddsmakers have done the Wolverines an injustice here by hanging this big line on them. Ohio St. has only lost one game by more than a touchdown since Jim Tressel arrived on campus. Michigan is the ultimate conservative team when they get into a big game so it´s going to be difficult for them to pull away and stay away in this contest. You need only look at how Michigan St. almost worked a comeback against them and realize that the Wolverines should not be favored by a touchdown in this contest. I also wonder how the Wolverines will respond to playing in a close game. Michigan has played in three games decided by six points or less this season and they have lost two of those games. We know how Ohio St. will respond in this situation but how will Michigan? Win or lose for the Wolverines, I think they are laying too many points in this contest. Take Ohio St.
Ohio St. 22 Michigan 17
Penn St. vs. Michigan St
The line in this game is absurd. The public and oddsmakers are in such a hurry to keep Penn St. together that they will find the slightest positive and turn it into the mighty comeback of the Nittany Lions. What business does Penn St. have being anything less than a double digit underdog in this contest. Penn St. is a miserable 3-8 football team with zero wins on the road and zero wins against teams with winning records. Just because they clobbered a pathetic Indiana team at home last week, doesn´t mean they get to sit at the captain´s table this week. All but one of Penn St.´s road games this season have resulted in double digit losses and the fact that they are less than a touchdown dog in this game is foolery.
Michigan St. is on a three game losing streak which has contributed some to this soft line. Over the last three weeks, the Spartans have faced the pride of the conference in Michigan, Ohio St. and Wisconsin. That´s the major reason why they have not been able to come up with a win. The Spartans are embarrassed by last week´s performance and will be out to take out on the Nittany Lions. Michigan St. has dominated Penn St. in recent history outscoring them 145-67 in earning three straight wins. Look for the domination to continue as Michigan St. pounds Penn St. again.
Michigan St. 28 Penn St. 14
Northwestern vs. Illinois
Uh oh, somebody made a boo-boo. Northwestern has won five games but that still does not give them a pass to be road favorites especially by more than a field goal. Sure, the Wildcats got away with it at Indiana earlier this year but they had to fight like hell to get it and in that game they were only 2.5 point favorites. This week, the Wildcats have crossed the magic number of three which will get them into trouble. Off of that win to Penn St., I dare say that the Wildcats will come into this game overconfident as hard as that may be to believe. Northwestern is not a good enough football team to win when playing with too much confidence and covering two games in one season as a road favorite may be too much to ask.
Poor Illinois. That 1-10 record sure does look bad but they have had one of the toughest schedules in the country. All but two of their games have come against teams that have winning records. It´s been a tough go at it for them but this is their last home game and last game of the season. This is a chance for them to end the season on a positive note going into next year and have something to work with during the offseason. Illinois will take offense to being underdogs in this game v. Northwestern and will let some pride shine through and will come up with a victory in this contest. Take the home dog in this one.
Illinois 24 Northwestern 21
Oklahoma St. vs. Baylor
No one knows how to close out a season on a bummer like the Baylor Bears. Six of the last seven years, the Bears have ended their season with a game against the Cowboys and six of the last seven years they have ended their year with a blowout loss. Last season, Oklahoma St. hung 63 on Baylor enroute to 63-28 win. I don´t see things being much different this season. Baylor packed it in four weeks ago. Since then, the Bears have been beaten by 56, 28, 48 and 38. Are you counting this all up? That amounts to a loss by an average of 42 points per game. Baylor knows how to lose in style and I see little motivation for them to put up a fight here when they know going in that they are going to take a loss. They will come out with good intentions but the minute they fall behind by two touchdowns, their heads will hang low and the Cowboys´ point total will reach high.
Oklahoma St. needs an impressive win right now. They got one over Kansas last week to end what was a two game losing streak. The Cowboys have been merciless against teams who aren´t very good this year. Oklahoma St. has covered the spread in every game this season that has come against teams with losing records. The Cowboys could have 28 points by the end of the first quarter and they will not look back or feel sorry for Baylor. The Cowboys have three losses on the year and they are looking to get themselves to a high quality bowl game. They aren´t going to ruin their positioning by messing around with Baylor. Oklahoma St. is too soon removed from a 55-16 loss to Texas to overlook any opponent right now.
Oklahoma St. 52 Baylor 17
Kentucky vs. Georgia
Georgia is still thinking about a major bowl game and they went out last week and handled their business v. a very good Auburn football team. I think some of the intensity and spirited play that they exhibited v. the Tigers will show up again this week when they face this Kentucky team. Georgia has been all about defense this season and I think they will use that to smother Kentucky in this contest. Only one team has managed to score more than 17 points against the top defense in the country and I don´t see Kentucky being the team to duplicate that feat. Georgia will create points off of turnovers and have their way against a soft Kentucky defense.
The Wildcats, through some minor miracle, have managed to only play one SEC team thus far that has a winning record and that came at home v. Arkansas. Kentucky will get a rude awakening when they run up against this Georgia bunch and I think they will fold up in the 2nd half. Last year in Lexington, the Bulldogs took a chunk out of Kentucky 52-24 and the Bulldogs have dominated this matchup over the last four years. There´s little reason for me to believe that this year´s 4-6 version of the Kentucky Wildcats are ready to reverse that history. Take Georgia.
Georgia 38 Kentucky 0
Mississippi St. vs. Arkansas
Arkansas has been hot lately reeling off three straight wins and while I know they have the big showdown with LSU next week, I don´t think the Hogs will overlook Mississippi St. here. True the Bulldogs are not a very good football team but Houston Nutt knows that his club struggled with the Bulldogs last season and has reminded his club all week long about it. Arkansas is embarrassed about how close last year´s game was (26-19) and will be out to prove that it was a fluke. Arkansas´ defense will come out to play in this contest and look for the Razorbacks to make several big plays offensively.
It has been another disaster of a year for the Bulldogs who are 2-8. They have not been within sniffing distance of a win over the last four weeks losing each game by an average margin of 33 points. If the Bulldogs can lose by 38 points and get shutout at home by Alabama, you can bet that they can go to Arkansas and get smacked around the field. Mississippi St. is giving up a whopping 44 points per game when they are on the road and there´s little reason for me to believe that they will look like anything other than the same team that has been getting pounded all year long. Take Arkansas.
Arkansas 49 Mississippi St. 13
Iowa vs. Wisconsin
Wisconsin brought out the whipping stick last week v. Michigan St. and pounded the Spartans 56-21. The win was a much needed one for the Badgers as they were on a three game losing streak. Wisconsin is a tough customer at home and they know how to get up for the tough home games. On the season, they have beaten both Michigan St. and Ohio St. at home and they played Purdue down to the last seconds. Wisconsin has found some offense and that´s going to be bad news for Iowa who has struggled a bit defensively in their last two games. The Badgers also remember the 20-3 whipping they took in Iowa City last year and they are hell bent on reversing that outcome. Wisconsin has won three straight in this series at home and I think they make it four in a row this week.
Hats off to Kirk Ferentz for what he has been able to do with an Iowa team that was hit hard by graduation but when you take a hard look at their season they have only the three point win at home over Michigan to hang their hat on. The Hawkeyes are winless on the road this season v. Big Ten opponents and I don´t see why that would change here. Iowa does not have the explosiveness offensively that they had a year ago and that has shown when they have faced quality opponents. Iowa has not scored more than 14 points on the road in their Big-10 games this season and Wisconsin knows how to bring out the defense in these big games. Look for Iowa to take a solid loss in this one.
Wisconsin 24 Iowa 10
Missouri vs. Kansas St.
K-State seems to be back to their old selves after winning five in a row. Their only trouble this season came in the middle of the year when quarterback El Roberson got injured and was a little rusty coming back. Since Roberson has gotten back into the fold, the Wildcats have gotten back to the business of pounding teams and racking up wins. Since the embarrassing loss at home to Marshall earlier in the year, the Wildcats have beaten each home opponent by four touchdowns or more. With this being their last game of the regular season, you can expect Kansas St. to be in blowout mode as they try to cream one last opponent before the post season. No one rolls over teams like the Wildcats. When they sense that they are better than an opponent, Kansas St. really knows how to pour it on and covering the spread becomes an important part of what they do. Last year, K-State destroyed a talented Missouri team 38-0 in their own backyard and left a stain on the Tigers. I think they will use the mental edge of that win to their advantage here and beat Missouri pretty good again.
The Tigers have had a successful season thus far with a record of 7-3 but one bug-a-boo for the Tigers has been their play on the road this year. Missouri is 1-3 SU on the road this year with losses to Colorado and to Kansas by 21 points. It´s been a long time since Missouri has beaten Kansas St. so they are already walking in here with that hanging over their head and while they want revenge for last year´s shut out loss at home, I don´t think they truly believe that they can go out and beat Kansas St. in Manhattan. They will put up the good fight early on but as Kansas St. starts to get their way, Missouri will fall off to the wayside. Take Kansas St. in this contest.
Kansas St. 42 Missouri 17
UAB vs. South Florida
South Florida has suffered only three losses this season and those losses came against Alabama and the two teams who played for the conference title on Thursday Night, TCU and Southern Miss. I am not sure what South Florida´s bowl situation is but I am pretty sure that they are long shots to appear in one this season and that has to anger them. I think this is another opportunity for them to show that they do belong in a bowl game and to take advantage of the opportunity they need to not only beat UAB but do it impressively. South Florida faced the same situation last year and on the heat of a bowl game snub, they went to Houston and clobbered the Cougars 32-14. South Florida has played a lot of games close to the vest this year but I think they are really motivated in this contest and they are playing against a losing UAB team.
The Blazers have played a few good teams tough this year. They had a three game stretch in which they beat Cincinnati bad and then took TCU and Georgia down to the wire. The flip side to that is that they loss to Troy St., was blown out by South Carolina and lost by two touchdowns to a 4-7 Tulane team. I don´t see UAB being able to match the intensity of the South Florida team that they will face on Saturday night and in the end, they are going to make the mistakes to get beat soundly.
South Florida 31 UAB 17
Alabama vs. Auburn
The Auburn Tigers will try to avoid losing their third game in a row this Saturday. It´s been a tough two weeks for Auburn. It wasn´t too long ago that they were in the running for a SEC division title but after taking losses to Mississippi and Georgia, that is out of the question. Now Auburn is fighting to get themselves into a quality bowl game and for them to do that, they will have to roll over the top of the Crimson Tide. There´s no question that Auburn is a talented team but for some reason they have not been able to get the job done vs. the upper echelon teams. Against the lesser teams, the Tigers have gone wild and I think they will do the same in this contest. Auburn is not looking to lose three in a row, especially at the hands of their rivals. Look for Auburn to play some spirited football. Last season, the Tigers beat a more talented Alabama team 17-7 in Tuscaloosa. With this game being back in Auburn, I am looking for the Tigers to put a more severe beating on the Crimson Tide.
Alabama has just one win in their last four games and they have not been able to do much against the winning teams of the SEC. They have fared well against the Kentuckys and Mississippi States of the conference but were routed by Mississippi, Georgia and LSU. I don´t like this Bama team on the road either where they have not had many games. Their lone win came against Mississippi St. and their other two games resulted in two touchdown losses. Take Auburn in this contest.
Auburn 24 Alabama 9
