Tell Me If I'm Wrong But This Is Why Mizzou...

fadethepublic1 · Oct 7, 2009

wins the game tomorrow. I did some analysis to how Mizzou's defense would handle the Nebraska offense, since VaTech was the only other team comparable to Mizzou. And this is what I found...

RUSHING DEF
61. Missouri 4 143 535 3.74 5 133.75
67. Virginia Tech 5 178 698 3.92 4 139.60

TOTAL DEF
47. Virginia Tech 5 336 1699 5.06 7 339.80
59. Missouri 4 295 1407 4.77 8 351.75

RUSHING OFF
3. Nevada 4 160 1099 6.87 11 274.75
39. Nebraska 4 130 735 5.65 10 183.75

Basically, what I'm trying to say is Nevada is the #3 team in the country in rushing, while Nebraska is 39th in the country. Mizzou allowed 218 rushing yards against Nevada at Nevada. VaTech held Nebraska to 207 yards rushing at Lane stadium. Yet, Mizzou is ranked higher than VaTech in the rush defense category. Mizzou at home is a different animal. We know for a fact that Mizzou's offense is way more potent & consistent than Tyrod Taylor & the Hokies. Scoring is not the problem, I think holding Nebraska's offense is the problem. I think Nebraska had only one tested game on the road & we saw how many points they put up against VaTech. How much will the Huskers put up against a defense that is only 12 spots lower than the Hokies in the rankings?

immauser · Oct 7, 2009

loving the missouri+3 from 5dimes!

easy_money · Oct 7, 2009

fadethepublic1 said:
wins the game tomorrow. I did some analysis to how Mizzou's defense would handle the Nebraska offense, since VaTech was the only other team comparable to Mizzou. And this is what I found...

RUSHING DEF
61. Missouri 4 143 535 3.74 5 133.75
67. Virginia Tech 5 178 698 3.92 4 139.60

TOTAL DEF
47. Virginia Tech 5 336 1699 5.06 7 339.80
59. Missouri 4 295 1407 4.77 8 351.75

RUSHING OFF
3. Nevada 4 160 1099 6.87 11 274.75
39. Nebraska 4 130 735 5.65 10 183.75

Basically, what I'm trying to say is Nevada is the #3 team in the country in rushing, while Nebraska is 39th in the country. Mizzou allowed 218 rushing yards against Nevada at Nevada. VaTech held Nebraska to 207 yards rushing at Lane stadium. Yet, Mizzou is ranked higher than VaTech in the rush defense category. Mizzou at home is a different animal. We know for a fact that Mizzou's offense is way more potent & consistent than Tyrod Taylor & the Hokies. Scoring is not the problem, I think holding Nebraska's offense is the problem. I think Nebraska had only one tested game on the road & we saw how many points they put up against VaTech. How much will the Huskers put up against a defense that is only 12 spots lower than the Hokies in the rankings?

Only problem with your analysis is Nevada's rushing stats are skewed. They accumulated most of that last week against a shitty team. As for VA-Tech they have played two of the better rushing teams in the country (Bama, NU) and a top-5 strength of schedule so far (Bama, NU, Miami), So yes they rank bad in rush defense but they are not playing the cupcakes mizzou is playing. Same goes with total defense. If VT and Mizzou switched schedules, Mizzou's D would be ranked much much lower than VT's. I would like more of the people on this forum to take mizzou though so the line stops rising

hno:. I'm not saying you're wrong in your analysis, I just don't agree. Good Luck!

kylem923 · Oct 7, 2009

like Nebraska here....

TOOTIGHT · Oct 7, 2009

Mizzou has a defense that can stop the run. Not saying a better D than V Tech but they are effective against the run none the less. Not playing this one but I think Mizzou wins...

Redneckman · Oct 7, 2009

Va Tech's rushing stats are skewed because Nebraska ran for over 200 yards on them. And Alabama ran for over 260. Has Missouri played Alabama or Nebraska? No. So I'm telling you that you are wrong. That can sometimes be the problem with statistics.

FlyinHayin · Oct 7, 2009

Coin Flip anyone???

fadethepublic1 · Oct 7, 2009

Redneckman said:
Va Tech's rushing stats are skewed because Nebraska ran for over 200 yards on them. And Alabama ran for over 260. Has Missouri played Alabama or Nebraska? No. So I'm telling you that you are wrong. That can sometimes be the problem with statistics.

Nevada has been in top 5 of country in rushing da last 3 years despite playing top opp such as mizzou, nd , etc. Obv my stats show how much huskers ran on vatech jus like how nevada racked up the same amt on mizzou but nevada is a better rushing team than huskers. Please xplain

aderol · Oct 7, 2009

80% chance of rain. good for Nebraska's running game, bad for Mizzou's passing game.

fadethepublic1 · Oct 7, 2009

easy_money said:
Only problem with your analysis is Nevada's rushing stats are skewed. They accumulated most of that last week against a shitty team. As for VA-Tech they have played two of the better rushing teams in the country (Bama, NU) and a top-5 strength of schedule so far (Bama, NU, Miami), So yes they rank bad in rush defense but they are not playing the cupcakes mizzou is playing. Same goes with total defense. If VT and Mizzou switched schedules, Mizzou's D would be ranked much much lower than VT's. I would like more of the people on this forum to take mizzou though so the line stops rising hno:. I'm not saying you're wrong in your analysis, I just don't agree. Good Luck!

U have to realize what im saying. Im trying compare vatech to mizzou because mizzou held nevada to 200 yds rushing just as how vatech did nebraska but huskers are no where near the rushing stature of nevada nevada can move da ball on anyone. They may not score or they turn it over but no question that nevadas rushing stats are consistent, even againt good competition.

So if mizzou can contain or hold huskers rushing yards jus like they did with nevada and for force turnovers, then they have a chance.

Btw, are u telling me that nebraska had a harder schedule than mizzou? So the 3 sunbelt teams nebraska played were juggernauts right?

cashflow50 · Oct 7, 2009

mizzou has team speed this year on both sides of the ball..fwiw

nd2000 · Oct 7, 2009

Fade,

I think Mizz is the right side of this game too, but barely. They have the better QB IMO, and they have a good offensive line that can negate the strength of that good Nebraska defensive front.

fadethepublic1 · Oct 7, 2009

nd2000 said:
Fade,

I think Mizz is the right side of this game too, but barely. They have the better QB IMO, and they have a good offensive line that can negate the strength of that good Nebraska defensive front.

7 point swing from last year's line. All of a sudden Nebraska's that much better? Even though Daniels is no longer QB & Speed McSpeedster is no long at WR, I'm really digging the substitutes w/Gabbert & the new WR. I do like the home team and hope we can use the ESPN Thursday night home dog angle.

nd2000 · Oct 7, 2009

fadethepublic1 said:
7 point swing from last year's line. All of a sudden Nebraska's that much better? Even though Daniels is no longer QB & Speed McSpeedster is no long at WR, I'm really digging the substitutes w/Gabbert & the new WR. I do like the home team and hope we can use the ESPN Thursday night home dog angle.

It's actually a lot better than a 7-point line swing. You go from Mizz -10 on the road last year to Mizz +3.5 at home. It's a swing more in the mid teen range....

fadethepublic1 · Oct 7, 2009

nd2000 said:
It's actually a lot better than a 7-point line swing. You go from Mizz -10 on the road last year to Mizz +3.5 at home. It's a swing more in the mid teen range....

Well correct me if i'm wrong but wouldn't it have been mizzou -13 on a neutral field last year & mizzou -16 at missouri? so last year's line would've been -16 in missouri? So I guess I do stand corrected huh?

fadethepublic1 · Oct 7, 2009

shit! that's a 19 pt swing. WOW!!!

whateva · Oct 7, 2009

so mizzou should be giving the 3 heck they should be giving 7. haven't seen nebraska play and not impressed by mizzou. all i know mizzou has been lucky and struggled against less teams. nebraska hasn't struggled and i'll take my chances with nebreaska losing a close game at vt. if you watched the nevada game, mizzou would have gotten a beat down by a strong team. gabbart had a few good throws, but had alot of i'll just throw it up and see what happens. i think if mizzou were to play nevada again right now they would lose outright.

CrapGame · Oct 7, 2009

I lie MIzzou in this situation but I am concerned about the weather killling their passing game. If it becomes a muddy mess I really do not know who will have advantage.

easy_money · Oct 8, 2009

fadethepublic1 said:
U have to realize what im saying. Im trying compare vatech to mizzou because mizzou held nevada to 200 yds rushing just as how vatech did nebraska but huskers are no where near the rushing stature of nevada nevada can move da ball on anyone. They may not score or they turn it over but no question that nevadas rushing stats are consistent, even againt good competition.

So if mizzou can contain or hold huskers rushing yards jus like they did with nevada and for force turnovers, then they have a chance.

Btw, are u telling me that nebraska had a harder schedule than mizzou? So the 3 sunbelt teams nebraska played were juggernauts right?

No I'm saying VT has a harder schedule than Mizzou.

FlyinHayin · Oct 8, 2009

I lie MIzzou in this situation but I am concerned about the weather killling their passing game. If it becomes a muddy mess I really do not know who will have advantage.

Turf