Teaser of the Decade

[MikRetSam]

Okay maybe not, but will play for a hefty amount... 6 pt KC & Pitt

KC -1 over Miami. Good game for KC to get up for against an opponent who I feel isn't as good as their record. In an even turnover game vs Tua, KC wins by 14.

Pitt +8.5 over Buffalo. Both teams just played on national tv, and due to outcomes, Pitt is undervalued and Buff is overvalued. Look ahead game line was Pitt-2.5.

Both teams have something to play for and after KC beats Miami, Pitt will play hard.

Best of luck!

 

[JimmyVegas]

​I think KC and Tampa Bay is better

 

[MikRetSam]

Not crossing the key numbers of 3 & 7 loses much of the teaser line value and is a negative play. 22% of games land on 3 and 7, and right now 7 is more popular (12%) than 3 (10%) due to the 2 point conversion. KC is 7 to 7.5 and is on the edge of a teaser play for me. Those who like a -6.5, imo this number should be played straight. Best of luck to you.

 

[Biz]

Finally someone who understands how to play a teaser.

 

[busterhyman]

surprised nobody mentioned.. the bs rule... of not crossing zero

 

[MikRetSam]

Do you feel crossing zero is profitable in teasers?

 

[fightgood]

I think teasing Seattle to -6.5 against the Jets is better. Coming off the loss against the Giants; Seattle "should" roll. Unless they lollygag or give up late garbage points

 

[MikRetSam]

Every team teased looks good, but to come out ahead in the long run must cross 3 & 7. For Sea you'd have to lay 130+ to get down to 6.5 to win one side of a teaser, which is for sure not profitable. Good luck.

I think teasing Seattle to -6.5 against the Jets is better. Coming off the loss against the Giants; Seattle "should" roll. Unless they lollygag or give up late garbage points

 

[bigwang]

Finally someone who understands how to play a teaser.

It isn’t a bs rule by any stretch. Teasers already have a high built in edge. Crossing zero just adds to it and will lighten your bankroll over a season.

 

[busterhyman]

Do you feel crossing zero is profitable in teasers?

wouldn't stop me from betting that teaser..kinda like taking a 3 pt fav and making them a 3 or 4 pt underdog

 

[exploited17]

When you don't cross zero it means you are taking high lines and mostly making it so you just have to win. The higher the line the more iikely it wins SU So taking the -6 to -9 lines which likely win SU and making so you mostly likely just have to win SU makes sense

If you tease -3 for example to +3 where is the value? -3 isn't anywhere near as likely to win SU as -6-9 for example. and +3 offers little as you likely get a loss or a push with it if your team doesn't win SU

The rule doesn't mean you can't win crossing zero. It just means the more you do it the more the odds catch up to you. So, in the long run...

 

[MikRetSam]

Teasing -3 to +3 is a losing proposition, play the -3 flat period! The only key number is 3 and you're not even crossing it. You will win half of the -3's you play flat. The edge buying a teaser to +3 I would calculate at less than a 10% edge. Books love this play!

wouldn't stop me from betting that teaser..kinda like taking a 3 pt fav and making them a 3 or 4 pt underdog

 

[MikRetSam]

Its about the key numbers games land on. The only teaser which is profitable over a large sample size is crossing 3 and 7 which also includes 4 and 6. Play all other games straight!

When you don't cross zero it means you are taking high lines and mostly making it so you just have to win. The higher the line the more iikely it wins SU So taking the -6 to -9 lines which likely win SU and making so you mostly likely just have to win SU makes sense

If you tease -3 for example to +3 where is the value? -3 isn't anywhere near as likely to win SU as -6-9 for example. and +3 offers little as you likely get a loss or a push with it if your team doesn't win SU

The rule doesn't mean you can't win crossing zero. It just means the more you do it the more the odds catch up to you. So, in the long run...