Teams with the best shot to win the BCS Title

[GoSooners]

From ESPN Insider Bruce Feldman's blog:

Teams most likely to win the BCS title
Monday, April 6, 2009 | Feedback | Print Entry

When the NCAA basketball championship tips off tonight, it'll be fun to see whether preseason favorite North Carolina can overwhelm local favorite Michigan State. It's uncommon, I think, to have the favorite make it through the season and win it all. This week's Top 10 topic: teams with the best shot of winning the BCS title:

1. Florida: No shock here. And there are some parallels with the UNC hoops squad. You've no doubt heard comparisons between both teams' stars, Tim Tebow and Tyler Hansbrough. Both will go down as among the greatest players in college sports. Tebow may leave Gainesville as the greatest college football player ever. Each also has been dogged by skepticism about their pro prospects and backlash about the media's love for each. But UF is much more than just Tebow. The defense is loaded, and star LB Brandon Spikes is back, too. Other reasons to like UF to win it all: The next-best team in the SEC East, Georgia, has to replace its two best players, QB Matthew Stafford and RB Knowshon Moreno; UF's nonconference slate is very manageable, with the only top-50 caliber foe being FSU (and that game is in Gainesville). The biggest hurdle in the regular season is a trip to LSU.
   
   
   
2. Texas: Who cares if Colt McCoy didn't put up great numbers in UT's spring game? McCoy's numbers were ridiculous in 2008, and he has plenty of weapons back to do just as much damage this year. The Horns did lose a lot of talent on the D-line, but the secondary, which was so young in 2008, should be much improved this fall. More positives: The O-line should be solid. The nonconference slate is cake. Karma should be on Texas' side after last season, no? UT has two big hurdles in the regular season: against Oklahoma and at OSU.
   
   
   
3. Oklahoma: Having Sam Bradford and DT Gerald McCoy back probably kept the Sooners in everyone's preseason top 5. The Sooners do have a lot to replace on the O-line, though, and the defense needs more work in the back seven. Getting OSU in Norman is a big plus. The nonconference schedule is a bit tricky -- OU plays BYU in Texas and Miami in Miami -- but the Sooners figure to be favored in both.
   
   
   
4. Ole Miss: This may look crazy, but keep reading. The Rebels are fearless. They won at both Florida and LSU last season. They have a budding star at quarterback in Jevan Snead, some terrific receivers, and potentially the best D-line in the country. They also have the luxury of playing the softest nonconference schedule in the country, with two games against FCS teams, UAB and a Memphis team they beat every year. Better still, they get Alabama and LSU at home. Can the Rebs handle success and expectations now? We'll see. A Thursday night trip to South Carolina appears to be the toughest road game.
   
   
   
5. USC: I'm not that leery of the Trojans' having to replace QB Mark Sanchez. Inside the program, there has been a good buzz around Aaron Corp for months. The young O-line will be a lot better, and WR Damian Williams is a rising star. Defensively, there are concerns in the front seven, which is almost entirely new. Consistency will be an issue. USC's trip to Ohio State early will be fascinating, although the Buckeyes also have major holes they need to address. The big reason why I have the Trojans a few spots lower on this list is that their schedule doesn't fall well in the Pac-10. They have to go to Cal and Oregon -- not to mention visit South Bend to play what should be an improved Irish team, although we said that last year, too. Still, that's four challenging road games for what will still be a very young team.
   
   
   
6. Va. Tech: I'm always a bit worried about Tech whenever it has big expectations put on it going into a season. The Hokies tend to be most dangerous when people don't hype them up. But I still like QB Tyrod Taylor and their running game, and provided they can get their special teams back to form after a shockingly mediocre stretch last season, they deserve to be watched very closely in 2009. Playing Alabama early is tough, although the Tide has to rebuild its O-line and find a new starting quarterback. I also like that Tech gets Miami, UNC and Nebraska at Lane Stadium.
   
   
   
7. Boise State: The youngest good team in the country last season should be even better with another year of seasoning. The Broncos get a good crack at getting people on the bandwagon in a Thursday night home opener against a very potent Oregon team. Last season, BSU won at Autzen behind freshman QB Kellen Moore. I think they have a legit shot to beat the Ducks again, especially since Oregon has to replace a lot of good players on D. After that, it's all downhill to a perfect regular season, although going to Tulsa in mid-October won't be so easy.
   
   
   
8. LSU: The Tigers still have a ton of talent and rode a dominant bowl performance into the offseason, and that should take some concerns away from the quarterback questions that dogged them all of 2008. Even though their out-of-conference schedule is suspect, the Tigers' SEC slate doesn't fall too favorably: at Georgia, followed by a visit from Florida; later they have to go to Tuscaloosa and to Oxford.
   
   
   
9. Oklahoma State: I love the Cowboys' offense, and I think bringing in Bill Young to run the defense was a great move, but OSU has to go to Norman late and gets a visit from Georgia early. Also, playing Houston in Week 2 right after a big, physical Bulldogs team might be more treacherous than people think.
   
   
   
10. Notre Dame: Charlie Brown kept thinking he could kick those field goals, and we'll give Charlie Weis one last shot to make contact here. The Irish have very good receivers, and if they can get a lot better on the O-line, they should put up a ton of points. The defense shouldn't be awful any more. Better still, they will be facing one of the softest schedules of any team in the country, especially one that doesn't need to worry about surviving a conference title game at the end of it all. Yes, ND has to face USC, but it's in South Bend. After that, a late visit to Stanford is probably the next toughest game. ND also plays the two teams that were the worst BCS conference programs last year, Washington and Washington State.

Just missed the cut: Oregon, TCU, Penn State, Alabama and Ohio State.

 

[XenScott]

I hope Ole Miss keeps getting this kind of attention all summer. They're perfect fade material for next season. I'm scratching my head at the "best D-line in the country" comment. They lost their best defensive lineman to the draft and Hardy can never stay out on the field.

 

[russ1945]

I will throw in four longshots to make the Top 10: Geogia Tech, Kansas, Arizona, and Michigan. I know I can hear the laughing from here. But according to my research these teams are flying way under the radar.

 

[UoweDucks]

I will throw in four longshots to make the Top 10: Geogia Tech, Kansas, Arizona, and Michigan. I know I can hear the laughing from here. But according to my research these teams are flying way under the radar.

Wow, Michigan...

I would say that their young QB Tate Forcier has the potential to be REALLY good. I remember watching his video. I felt at the time that he was superior to Terrell Pryor in just about every facet of the game.

 

[SoonerBS]

I'd say that Feldman got the top 2 right, but I think everyone will be chasing Florida and Texas this year. Those other teams he lists will certainly be on the radar this year though.

 

[GoSooners]

I'd say that Feldman got the top 2 right, but I think everyone will be chasing Florida and Texas this year. Those other teams he lists will certainly be on the radar this year though.

I agree. I think he's got the first two spots right. But that was pretty much a no-brainer. The rest is up for grabs.. Anything is possible, but I don't really agree with him about VT and Notre Dame being top 10 teams. OSU maybe.

 

[russ1945]

GS: I guess you like Boise St. at home against Oregon who you mention as a near miss. If Oregon beats Boise St. in the opener, Boise St can kiss the top 10 goodbye. Too many good teams that play tougher schedules and actually have better teams. If they beat Oregon they sneak into the top 10 only because of a pud schedule. Makes the Texas schedule look like a mine field. Regardless, they will not be one of the best 10 teams in the country no matter where they are rated. I would not be surprised to see Tulsa beat them in Tulsa and Nevada always plays them tough.
I have seen a projected top ten that shows OU, Texas, Okie St in the top 10 (in fact in the top 7). Now how the hell can that happen unless they trade wins and carry on the Big 12 tradition of confusion. Oregon could beat Boise and still lose a couple and that would cook their goose (I mean Duck).

 

[GoSooners]

GS: I guess you like Boise St. at home against Oregon who you mention as a near miss. If Oregon beats Boise St. in the opener, Boise St can kiss the top 10 goodbye. Too many good teams that play tougher schedules and actually have better teams. If they beat Oregon they sneak into the top 10 only because of a pud schedule. Makes the Texas schedule look like a mine field. Regardless, they will not be one of the best 10 teams in the country no matter where they are rated. I would not be surprised to see Tulsa beat them in Tulsa and Nevada always plays them tough.
I have seen a projected top ten that shows OU, Texas, Okie St in the top 10 (in fact in the top 7). Now how the hell can that happen unless they trade wins and carry on the Big 12 tradition of confusion. Oregon could beat Boise and still lose a couple and that would cook their goose (I mean Duck).

Russ...Oregon/Boise will be a pivitol game for both schools to make any kind of a BCS run. At this point I hate to predict what's going to happen there on the Blue Turf.. I do know that Boise played TCU in their bowl game right down to the wire. And that was a very young Boise team. So who knows? As far the Big 12, somebody always sneaks into the top 10 from the Big 12 besides OU and Texas. The last few years it's been Kansas, Missouri, and Texas Tech. I don't see why OSU can't do it if they have just have one loss. You'll most definitely see them in the top 7 early on if they can knock off Georgia.

 

[russ1945]

GS: I know those were not your own personal picks but I think most people will base their top 25 picks on scheduling. That is exactly why at least 10 of the top 25 typically are not there at the end of the season.
If you spend any time at all looking at scheduling it is amazing how they sometimes appear to set up just right for certain teams. I would have to say that when Florida opens up against Charleston Southern all eyes will be...........somewhere else. So. Miss opens against Alcorn St. Texas Tech open against North Dakota and Iowa State opens against North Dakota State. Seems like North Dakota should be playing North Dakota State and T Tech against I State. Kent St opens against Coastal Carolina. Virginia opens against William & Mary (I think Mary is having ACL surgery and will miss that one). Then you have to give some credit to Akron who open against Penn. St (but plays Morgan St the next week), Middle Tenn who opens at Clemson, and Western Kentucky who opens at Tennessee and may be the first team to feel the "wrath of Kiffin." You gotta like the Hilltoppers.

 

[GoSooners]

GS: I know those were not your own personal picks but I think most people will base their top 25 picks on scheduling. That is exactly why at least 10 of the top 25 typically are not there at the end of the season.
If you spend any time at all looking at scheduling it is amazing how they sometimes appear to set up just right for certain teams. I would have to say that when Florida opens up against Charleston Southern all eyes will be...........somewhere else. So. Miss opens against Alcorn St. Texas Tech open against North Dakota and Iowa State opens against North Dakota State. Seems like North Dakota should be playing North Dakota State and T Tech against I State. Kent St opens against Coastal Carolina. Virginia opens against William & Mary (I think Mary is having ACL surgery and will miss that one). Then you have to give some credit to Akron who open against Penn. St (but plays Morgan St the next week), Middle Tenn who opens at Clemson, and Western Kentucky who opens at Tennessee and may be the first team to feel the "wrath of Kiffin." You gotta like the Hilltoppers.

I'm betting that Appalachian St. isn't high on Michigan's list for a rematch. North Dakota St. will probably beat Iowa State. Some of these FCS teams are little bulldogs that could rated in the top 25 if they were in division 1. Appalachian State was one of those teams a couple years ago.

 

[VoiceofReason101]

Can't wait for this year, I've already started to list teams on both my fade and play lists.

VTECH will be on my fade list

 

[GoSooners]

Can't wait for this year, I've already started to list teams on both my fade and play lists.

VTECH will be on my fade list

I'm with ya buddy....I'll be giving you a call before the season starts to see if we're on the same page with some of these teams.

 

[russ1945]

GS: I agree. I intentionally left off Appalachian St but they play East Carolina at E.C on opening day. I also left off SMU who opens up at home against Stephen F. Austin. One opening day game I am very interested in is Nevada at Notre Dame. Nevada can score but will have trouble stopping N.D. At least we will see what N. D. has got and they had better not take that game lightly.

 

[GoSooners]

One opening day game I am very interested in is Nevada at Notre Dame. Nevada can score but will have trouble stopping N.D. At least we will see what N. D. has got and they had better not take that game lightly.

Russ...ND has a very favorable schedule with 7 home games. Nevada playing the Irish on opening weekend will be a tough game for Nevada to win. The teams that ND has had problems with the last couple years are the BCS conference teams who play a physical brand of football. Nevada really doesn't fit into this category. But with their easy schedule something tells me that ND will be somewhat of a paper tiger this year. It wouldn't at all surprise me if they go 5-0 in the first part of their schedule before they meet USC. The only tough away game they'll have is playing at Michigan. And although I think Michigan will be an improved team this year in Rod's second season, I still don't think he has the personnel he needs to run his offensive system as affectively as he would like. Don't get me wrong, they'll be better. But a good deal of coach Rod's success at WV in his last 4 years had alot to do with having elusive skill players like Pat White and Steve Slayton, that fit his system like a glove. He didn't have anything like that in his first year at Michigan. The good thing is that his offense comes back intact in '09. So they should be at least somewhat improved. But they need to get much better QB play. The game with ND should be a good one. But the homefield advantage don't always mean alot when these two teams meet.

 

[russ1945]

GS: Not predicting an upset by Nevada but their offense has some talented players (playmakers). N.D could just as well lose two of their first three games. Then you throw in USC, BC at home and Stanford away and they may just be a paper pussy cat. Of course three losses would be a big deal in South Bend. I know they are full of confidence but I am not sure their coaching is all that and the win over Hawaii was not much to crow about. Their game with Michigan is at Michigan and that is a season builder, maybe breaker, for Michigan. Definently one that Michigan has circled and focused on. What I am saying is that Nevada may not be a cakewalk and if N.D. is looking ahead to Michigan when they play Nevada or not taking Michigan seriously they could pay the price. A loss for N.D. at Michigan could start the talking again and the momentum from the bowl win will come to an ubrupt end. By the same token at this point Michigan better not take W. Mich for granted in their opener either.

 

[RunLeeRun]

I will throw in four longshots to make the Top 10: Geogia Tech, Kansas, Arizona, and Michigan. I know I can hear the laughing from here. But according to my research these teams are flying way under the radar.

I think it would be hard for any team out of the Big 12 north to make the top ten this year. Kansas has to play Oklahoma and Nebraska at home, but both Tech and Texas on the road. They lost to all four...the closest was within 10 points. Lets say they win the north, they would have to play the south winner. Thats five tough games. I see Kansas having more of the 2008 success, rather than the 2007 success. I do like Georgia Tech. Why? Nobody is running that style of option. It's hard to learn to defend in a week's time. Ole' Miss poses an interesting prospect. The games that I saw, they looked to be a team that played with great effort. If Snead can progress, they just might be the second best "team" in the SEC.

 

[GoSooners]

The reason I have my doubts about ND is their net close wins and losses last year. They ended up going 6-6 for the regular season. But 3 of their wins were by a TD or less. And those 3 teams were Navy (6 points), Stanford (7 points)and SDST (8 points). Their other 3 wins came against Michigan (at home vs a rebuilt MU team with a new coach), Purdue (at home vs a losing program with a retiring HC), and Washington (need I say more). They didn't have one significant win last season... Their losses came against Michigan St. , North Carolina, Pitt (at home), BC, USC (not even close) and Syracuse (no respectable program should lose to a team like Syracuse late in the season at home). That loss was strictly due to bad coaching.. This is why I have my doubts about Weiss getting it done. This team basically doesn't show improvement over the course of a season. And that usually brings up red flags with me. I don't like to say never say never with some of these teams like ND and Pitt. But despite their personnel (lots of 4 star recruits on both teams) both of these teams look like their stuck in mediocrity with bad head coaches. ND could and should have as good as a 10-2 year. But I'm betting they do no better than 8-4. They'll have a loss or two somewhere in there that they're not supposed to have. at Michigan, MSU, USC, BC, at Pitt and at Stanford. None of these games are for sure wins. And considering their road record under Weis, even Purdue isn't a gimme.

 

[russ1945]

GS: My take on Kansas was very optomistic but follow the same logic as having three Big 12 teams in the top 10 as originally proposed (OU, OSU, and Texas). If Kansas gets by S. Miss at home, beats T Tech at TT, and beats Nebraska at Neb then their only two losses might be to OU and Texas. God forbid they win one of those but they do host OU and hung 31 points on them LY.
The team I did not mention that I probably should have is So. Miss. who returns 8 on off with a QB,and 8 on defense. There is some kind of voodoo going on down there but that team is scarey. May be a bet on team in 2009. A head coach who is an offensive guru. I have not completed my research on them but they have already peaked my interest. If they beat Kansas at Kansas look out.

 

[GoSooners]

GS: My take on Kansas was very optomistic but follow the same logic as having three Big 12 teams in the top 10 as originally proposed (OU, OSU, and Texas). If Kansas gets by S. Miss at home, beats T Tech at TT, and beats Nebraska at Neb then their only two losses might be to OU and Texas. God forbid they win one of those but they do host OU and hung 31 points on them LY.
The team I did not mention that I probably should have is So. Miss. who returns 8 on off with a QB,and 8 on defense. There is some kind of voodoo going on down there but that team is scarey. May be a bet on team in 2009. A head coach who is an offensive guru. I have not completed my research on them but they have already peaked my interest. If they beat Kansas at Kansas look out.

Russ...Mangino likes to please the alumni and he usually takes non conference games played at home pretty seriously. No matter who they are. And he also likes to run up the score on these non-BCS teams when he can. But Kansas isn't what I would call real physical up front, so we could see a high scoring game there. But i don't see Southern Miss being able to stop the Jayhawk offense. The over could be a good play for that game. OU going to Kansas the week after playing Texas is also no gimme. The Sooners have had some years where they've come out a little flat the next week after playing Texas. They can't afford to do this vs Kansas because they'll be good enough to beat the Big Boys if they don't bring their A or A- games.