Teams with new coaches and new starting QBs

[sendacash]

Each year before the season start I like to go through and list the teams which made coaching changes and have new starting QBs. The rationale being that these teams are in "reboot" mode and could possibly be good fade candidates at least early on in the season as the players adjust to the coaches and vice-versa. This season that list is surprisingly short, maybe the fewest I can recall in years:


Michigan
Colorado St.
Oregon St.
Florida*




* The Steele mag lists Florida's QB as a returning starter, but if they go with the redshirt frosh Grier then obviously not.




On a side note, how long has Chuckie Keeton been at Utah St.? I was somewhat surprised to see his name on the Aggs starting lineup, must be on the 7 year plan or something? Hopefully he can stay healthy this year.

 

[cloverleaf]

Since 1990, teams with 'NEW COACHES' are just 2055-2669-14 (43%) straight up during their first year.

*****PLAY AGAINST any CFB team with a new coach this season in Game Two if they are off a loss in
their first game and are facing an opponent off SUATS win. (8-25 ATS in this role) 73.5 % chance of
winning using past history.

For what it's worth...................

 

[CoachCB]

Since 1990, teams with 'NEW COACHES' are just 2055-2669-14 (43%) straight up during their first year.

*****PLAY AGAINST any CFB team with a new coach this season in Game Two if they are off a loss in
their first game and are facing an opponent off SUATS win. (8-25 ATS in this role) 73.5 % chance of
winning using past history.

For what it's worth...................

Good info CL.

 

[cloverleaf]

Thanks...just for you Coach.

Apply the same system with the new coach in a non-conference game and you come up with a 3-17 ATS record.
85 percent chance of winning betting against 'new boy.'

 

[BigdaddyQH]

Michigan and Oregon State play each other in game two. Interesting. The only game that has a chance of qualifying for Mark Lawrence's "Play Against" is UNLV, who goes to No. Illinois and then hosts UCLA. UCLA should be able to handle Virginia in their first game both S/U and ATS. There are a few others, but those would be major stretches to qualify.

 

[sendacash]

Last year there were 9 teams that began with the new coach/qb combo, but then two more qualified as both Texas and Bowling Green lost their QBs early in the season. You could add SMU to the list as well after their coach up and quit on them. Over the course of the entire season it was pretty much a break even proposition at around 74-68 ATS, but I think there were opportunities at least early in the season fading teams such as Vandy & SMU.

It should be interesting to see what happens with both Michigan & Florida this year as no doubt they both have underperformed their recruiting rankings over the past 4 seasons. I have Florida ranked 31st in my power ratings this year, but their average 4 year recruitng ranks 7th. While Michigan not quite as bad coming in at 37th in power ratings, while 17th in 4 year recruiting average. I think both these teams should improve as the season progresses under the guidance of improved coaching, but maybe there could be some speed bumps in the early going?

 

[BigdaddyQH]

I think ranking Florida at #7 and Michigan at #17 is way off the mark. Most of these figures are as false as you can get. They are nothing but opinions from people who do know know what they are talking about. You will lose a lot of money depending on these frauds.

 

[sendacash]

BDQ, I agree its not a good idea to put too much stock in these numbers in your weekly capping as I think they are already baked into the lines to a certain extent. However, I do think its an interesting piece of the puzzle to consider from a coaching perspective. Take a look at 3 teams that have vastly underperformed their recruiting rankings over the past few years (Texas, Florida, and Michigan). What happened to their coaches, that's right they all got pink slips. Then look at it another way, teams that are overperforming their rankings such as TCU, Baylor, Kansas State, Michigan State and you find some of the most respected coaches in CFB. Maybe these coaches have a certain system that just works (Georgia Tech, Wisconsin, Navy) or maybe they are just lucky to play in a weaker conference (Boise). This is just another way of saying, well this coach certainly knows how to recruit talent, but his game day coaching skills are lacking. While this other coach is not able to bring in the highly sought after players, but he's somehow able to coach them up to play better as a team. Then you have the coaches who can do both such as Meyer and Saban, which separates them from the pack.

 

[GoSooners]

Not that it matters a whole lot with Kansas since I don't think they win more than 2 games either way, but along with a new coach they'll probably have a new QB since Cummings got hurt in the spring and had to have surgery. I heard Cozart could be the front runner. Otherwise they'll have to throw freshman Carter Stanley to the wolves.

 

[CoachCB]

Last year there were 9 teams that began with the new coach/qb combo, but then two more qualified as both Texas and Bowling Green lost their QBs early in the season. You could add SMU to the list as well after their coach up and quit on them. Over the course of the entire season it was pretty much a break even proposition at around 74-68 ATS, but I think there were opportunities at least early in the season fading teams such as Vandy & SMU.

It should be interesting to see what happens with both Michigan & Florida this year as no doubt they both have underperformed their recruiting rankings over the past 4 seasons. I have Florida ranked 31st in my power ratings this year, but their average 4 year recruitng ranks 7th. While Michigan not quite as bad coming in at 37th in power ratings, while 17th in 4 year recruiting average. I think both these teams should improve as the season progresses under the guidance of improved coaching, but maybe there could be some speed bumps in the early going?

I'd lay off Florida (or bet against them) until we see what the OL looks like. The Tennessee game should be a good gauge of where the UF OL stands.

I'm not betting Michigan either. Too many question marks.

 

[rivercitybirdie]

i looked at this angle for 2014......

7 teams with new coaches and QB's... 44-44 ats 50%....... 1 poor ats team: wyoming. 3 smaller ATS winning teams: ark state, louisville, UAB.

i perused the best and worst ATS teams for just new coach (nothing to do with QB): big ATS winners: Georgia Southern, Mass, M-Ohio. big ATS losers: conn, wyoming, bgreen