systematic 2009 preview and season wins picks

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I will start with the Steelers as they were the only team with 15 wins last season. Since 1999 we only had 6 teams comming off of 15 wins seasons. Neither one came even close to the previous season success. Let's see how these teams faired after 15 wins seasons.

2007 Bears went 7-9 SU and 7-9 ATS. They were 2-6 ATS before their bye week and 5-3 ATS after their bye week. They were also 2-5 ATS as favorites (0-5 before their bye week). They finished dead last in their division.

2006 Steelers (*SB winners in 2005) went 8-8 SU and 7-8-1 ATS. They were 5-7 in the conference games and 2-6 SU and ATS in their first 8 games. They closed the season with a 6-2 SU and 5-2-1 ATS record in last 8 games. They were 2-5 ATS in first 7 as favorites and 5-1 SU, 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 as favorites.

2006 Seahawks went 10-8 SU and 8-10-1 ATS and they barely won their week division compared to their easy divisional title the year before. They were 2-6 ATS in first 8 games and 3-8 ATS in first 11 games. They were 4-8 ATS as favorites that year. They were 7-5 against their week conference that had only 4 other winning teams that year.

2005 Eagles went 6-10 SU and 5-11 ATS. They finished dead last in their division (0-6 record) and 3-9 in the conference. They were 2-8 ATS in first 10 games and 1-5 ATS in first 6 as favorites. They went 0-6 against the best 6 teams they faced and 4 of their 6 wins came against non winning teams.

2003 TB (*SB winners in 2002) went 7-9 SU and ATS missing the playoffs. They were 5-8 ATS as favorites, 2-4 in divisional games. 1-6 SU and ATS after a win, won their first consecutive games in weeks 14 and 15. Their schedule that year included only 2 really good teams but that wasn't enough for TB top produce a winning season.

1999 Minnesota went 10-6 SU but only 3-10-3 ATS. They lost 4 of first 6 games, had no covers in first 6 weeks and went 2-10-2 ATS in first 14 games. They were 0-5-1 ATS in divisional games. They were also 0-4 ATS in the preseason.

Baltimore should be a winning team again this season and Cleveland and Cincinnati should be better than last year. I really doubt that Pittsburgh will go 6-0 in the conference again. Even if they go 5-1, it will be hard to get 6 more wins out of the conference. They have 2 really easy games on their schedule at Detroit and vs Oakland, but home games against Tennessee, San Diego, Minnesota and Green Bay, as well as their road games at Chicago, Denver, KC and Miami are anything but easy.

UNDER 10.5 regular season wins (-115)

 

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We often hear about the SB losers curse. Myth or reality ?

2008 Patriots had 11 RS wins compared to 16 RS wins in 2007 (-5 wins)
2007 Bears had 7 RS wins compared to 13 RS wins in 2006 (-6 wins)
2006 Seahawks had 9 RS wins compared to 13 in 2005 (-4 wins)
2005 Eagles had 6 RS wins compared to 13 RS wins in 2004 (-7 wins)
2004 Carolina had 4 RS wins compared to 11 RS wins in 2003 (-7 wins)
2003 Oakland had 4 RS wins compared to 11 RS wins in 2002 (-7 wins)
2002 Rams had 7 RS wins compared to 14 RS wins in 2001 (-7 wins)
2001 Giants had 7 RS wins compared to 12 RS wins in 2000 (-5 wins)

So, the story seems to be true at least in last 8 seasons. According to this trend, Arizona (9 wins last year) should have no more than 5 wins and as little as 2 wins. I don't think they'll regress that much but I don't see them win 9 games with all divisional foes improved this season and all of them looking for revenge. Seattle is healthier, SF is the conference sleeper and STL can only be better this season. Non divisional schedule includes road trips at Tennessee, Chicago, Giants and Jacksonville and home games vs Carolina, Indianapolis, Houston, Green Bay and Minnesota. There is one word to describe their out of division schedule: Outch !!!




Under 8.5 regular season wins -106

 

[BigdaddyQH]

I agree with the Arizona take, but disagree with our Pitt take. First, BAltimore is going to be a major disappointment this year. Flacco will go through the second year pains of a NFC QB, and the defense is one year older. Pitt should be able to go 5-1 in division. It is not hard to find 6 more wins. By playing San Diego at home, they could easily sweep the AFC West. Kansas City, Denver, and Oakland are not .500 teams, much less challenges. A win at Detroit is very likely. So all the Steelers would need is a win at home against Tennessee, or San Diego, or Minnesota, or Green Bay. They certainly will win at least two of those games, if not more. I think Pitt easily wins 11 games.

 

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Possible week 1 plays (not official):

SF 60%
KC 50%
CIN 45%
WAS 55%
JAX 50%
STL 40%
OAK 40%
DET 40%
CLE 45%
BUF 40%
CAR 40$
NYJ 40%
TEN 40%
GB 55%

% = Chance to be an official play in september.

 

[BigdaddyQH]

That is way too many plays. If Tennessee is 40% chance of being a play, does that mean the Pitt is 60%?

 

[extra]

I will not have more than 5 straight plays in week 1. That list includes all teams that I'm leaning on right now. Lot's of time left before the games and I will eliminate them 1 by 1 to narrow it down to maybe 5 in September. 40% for Tennessee means that there is 40% chance to make Tennessee my official play and 60% that I will stay away from this game.

 

[BigdaddyQH]

Got it. I suggest that you stary away from your 40%-45% plays, seeing as I would go the other way in most of those games, and already have in the case of Oakland (San Diego -6 1/2) and Cleveland (Minnesota -2 1/2).
.

 

[extra]

I agree with the Arizona take, but disagree with our Pitt take. First, BAltimore is going to be a major disappointment this year. Flacco will go through the second year pains of a NFC QB, and the defense is one year older. Pitt should be able to go 5-1 in division. It is not hard to find 6 more wins. By playing San Diego at home, they could easily sweep the AFC West. Kansas City, Denver, and Oakland are not .500 teams, much less challenges. A win at Detroit is very likely. So all the Steelers would need is a win at home against Tennessee, or San Diego, or Minnesota, or Green Bay. They certainly will win at least two of those games, if not more. I think Pitt easily wins 11 games.

We shall see. I always kinda liked the Steelers football. And I stil believe that they were not that good last year. 12 regular season wins last season is not great when your supposedly strongest opponents had down years (NE, SD, IND, PHI, JAX, DAL, WAS) and when your division included two 4 wins teams that struggled with injuries and had QB issues all season long.

 

[extra]

Got it. I suggest that you stary away from your 40%-45% plays, seeing as I would go the other way in most of those games, and already have in the case of Oakland (San Diego -6 1/2) and Cleveland (Minnesota -2 1/2).
.

Everything can change until the week 1. Especially with possible injuries in the pre-season. Good luck man.

 

[BigdaddyQH]

Everything can change until the week 1. Especially with possible injuries in the pre-season. Good luck man.

I totally agree there. Just ask the Chargers what injuries can do to a team.

 

[fballplaya]

I know one play that should be 100%...but you don't have it listed...

 

[extra]

I know one play that should be 100%...but you don't have it listed...

feel free to share. this is what these forums are all about.

 

[budlight]

nice info extra

thanks

 

[extra]

Love betting regular season win unders when it comes to the most improved teams from the previous seasons. Miami was BY FAR the most improved team last season and they are a perfect fade this season. 13 of last 15 teams that improved by at least 5 wins in their previous season had down years in the following year. Miami should be no different for several reasons. They only had 1 win vs a playoff team last season and 9 wins by single digits. While all of their conference rivals look to be improved this season, Miami hasn't done a whole lot of improving this year. They were 4-2 in the division last season and it was a great season for them but both NY and NE had the identical records in the division in what was a down year for them. Don't expect Miami to go better than 3-3 in their division this season (I expect them to go 2-4) especially with trips to Buffalo, Jets and Patriots all comming in November and we all know how Miami fares in cold weather. And when it comes to the out of division schedule, it is brutal ! Road games at Atlanta, San Diego, Carolina, Jaxonville and Tennessee (4 playoffs team from last season) and home games vs Indianapolis, New Orleans, Houston, Pittsburgh and TB.

Under 7 regular season wins -110

 

[extra]

The Colts played 4 teams over 500, 3 teams at 500 and 9 teams under 500 last season (records from the time they faced Indianapolis). They also played only three teams on any kind of a winning streak (2 wins or more) and twice as many teams on losing streaks (2 losses or more). Yet they stil managed multiple miraculous come-backs to get in the postseason. Plenty of lucky wins last season (at Minnesota, at Houston, at Jacksonville, at Cleveland - should had lost all 4) and just as many close wins that could have gone the other way (New England, Houston, Pittsburgh and San Diego). Add to the mix a really bad and unimpressive win vs winless Lions, a blowout win against Baltimore, a team that just didn't believe in itself early on, and a minningless blowout against a Tennessee team resting starters and led by Young, and you got yourself a very unimpressive season for the Colts. The division is getting more and more competitive, Tennessee has the coaching edge, Houston is ready to go to the next level and Jacksonville should be back now that they are healthier than last season. Out of division schedule is not easy with road trips to Buffalo, Baltimore, Arizona and Cincinnati and home tilts vs Minnesota, Philladelphia, Jets, Seattle and SF.

Under 10 regular season wins +103

 

[fballplaya]

feel free to share. this is what these forums are all about.

49ers +7

 

[ZJP6050]

pittsburgh has an incredibly weak schedule this year...be advised.

 

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49ers +7

Actually, according to my list of percentages, so far SF looks like the best possible play in week 1.

 

[extra]

pittsburgh has an incredibly weak schedule this year...be advised.

pittsburgh will win no more than 10 games

 

[FearTheRaven]

pittsburgh will win no more than 10 games

I agree, that offensive line has to come into play sometime. Still can't believe they won it all with them last year.

I hate them but I respect them.