I think Portland is +1.5...even better! Watch out with the Cavs right now...lost 5 in a row ATS...One thing I have learned DEFINETLY over the years is NEVER go against a losing streak hoping they'll cover...it's burned me so many times. I like the Spurs to make it six in a row, but I know if it fits your system it's hard to go against it...I'd do the same thing. Good Luck Leaf!!! Like your new idea with the picks....
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RIGHT SIDE SPORTS, I agree that you have to be crazy to bet on a team on a loosing streak. But, there is reasoning behind my pick on Clev.
-they need the wins if they want that 8th spot
-just like Utah last night, if clev tonight does not cover, then that would mean they got a good old ass whipping. Then they have to face Dallas, in Dallas. What do you think the line would be, +13?
-they also lost to Dallas the last time out by 16 pts in Clev.
The way I see it, if they don't win one of their next 2 games, they are going golfing!
If they don't cover tonight, I will probable only double down against Dallas and that's it.
Then if they also get smoked by Dallas, I will take it as a system loss.
Also, my stats tell me that Clev is a streaking team both SU and ATS, both winning and losing. It's time for them to finish strong.
-they need the wins if they want that 8th spot
-just like Utah last night, if clev tonight does not cover, then that would mean they got a good old ass whipping. Then they have to face Dallas, in Dallas. What do you think the line would be, +13?
-they also lost to Dallas the last time out by 16 pts in Clev.
The way I see it, if they don't win one of their next 2 games, they are going golfing!
If they don't cover tonight, I will probable only double down against Dallas and that's it.
Then if they also get smoked by Dallas, I will take it as a system loss.
Also, my stats tell me that Clev is a streaking team both SU and ATS, both winning and losing. It's time for them to finish strong.
Mule,,, He has WON THEORETICALLY 44-2 games becaue he is Doubling up useing a Martingale system,,,,, so a Loss isnt a Loss if you win the next night..... you see????
the other record,,, the 44-26 is how many he has had to go into the SECOND night of useing the DOUBLE UP SYSTEM,,,,
Leaf has a Good Angle,,,
tater
the other record,,, the 44-26 is how many he has had to go into the SECOND night of useing the DOUBLE UP SYSTEM,,,,
Leaf has a Good Angle,,,
tater
Mule, here is the way my records are calculated.
System record: 44wins - 2loses
All my system picks are based on picking a team for 3 games in a row.
eg. tonight I have Minny for $50. If they cover, I get a system win. If they lose, than the next game is a double down bet, $100, on Minny again.
If they don't cover again, then I double down, $200, one last time on Minny.
If they lose again, NOW it is a system lose.
So, out of doing this 46 times I have lost 2 times.
The "ALL SYSTEM PICKS" record, is simple every individual game.
In the case above the record would be 0-3.
My record, documented, is 44-26.
Profit works like this:
MINNY, WIN 1ST SYSTEM BET: +$50
MINNY LOSE 1ST, WIN 2ND SYSTEM BET: -$55, +$100 = +$45
MINNY LOSE 1ST & 2ND, WIN 3RD SYSTEM BET: -$55, -$110, +200 = +$35
MINNY, LOSE ALL THREE: -$55, -$110, -$220 = -$385
I've said this before, Please understand, I am capping not only the teams first game, but also their next 2. I have to like all 3 games in order to make it a system pick.
Some have asked the question of why do I double down? Why don't I just make all bets the same amount?
For one HUGE reason:
If my 1st bet loses, it makes the next bet that much stronger!
Also, if I was to bet the same amount every pick ($50), I would have a profit of $770, instead of my system profit of $1421.
Hey guys, I never said, nor will I ever say my system is anywhere close to perfect. It is making me a profit, and that's the bottom line.
I'm a small better compared to some of the wagers I see in this forum.
If I was to make my initial bet $200, I would have a profit of 4 times the amount, $1421 x 4 = $5684
I am happy, and stress free at the pace I am going.
Hope this helps.
System record: 44wins - 2loses
All my system picks are based on picking a team for 3 games in a row.
eg. tonight I have Minny for $50. If they cover, I get a system win. If they lose, than the next game is a double down bet, $100, on Minny again.
If they don't cover again, then I double down, $200, one last time on Minny.
If they lose again, NOW it is a system lose.
So, out of doing this 46 times I have lost 2 times.
The "ALL SYSTEM PICKS" record, is simple every individual game.
In the case above the record would be 0-3.
My record, documented, is 44-26.
Profit works like this:
MINNY, WIN 1ST SYSTEM BET: +$50
MINNY LOSE 1ST, WIN 2ND SYSTEM BET: -$55, +$100 = +$45
MINNY LOSE 1ST & 2ND, WIN 3RD SYSTEM BET: -$55, -$110, +200 = +$35
MINNY, LOSE ALL THREE: -$55, -$110, -$220 = -$385
I've said this before, Please understand, I am capping not only the teams first game, but also their next 2. I have to like all 3 games in order to make it a system pick.
Some have asked the question of why do I double down? Why don't I just make all bets the same amount?
For one HUGE reason:
If my 1st bet loses, it makes the next bet that much stronger!
Also, if I was to bet the same amount every pick ($50), I would have a profit of $770, instead of my system profit of $1421.
Hey guys, I never said, nor will I ever say my system is anywhere close to perfect. It is making me a profit, and that's the bottom line.
I'm a small better compared to some of the wagers I see in this forum.
If I was to make my initial bet $200, I would have a profit of 4 times the amount, $1421 x 4 = $5684
I am happy, and stress free at the pace I am going.
Hope this helps.
#1,
Thanks for the plays.
And, don't believe everything you read, especially when it comes to how much people bet
Very easy for people to say they bet hundreds or thousands, not too many people actually do it. I always think of when one of the books went out of business and transferred the balances over to another book that bailed them out. Average total balance of all those folks betting hundreds a game was $79. Doesn't mean that some people don't bet decent amounts, but far more talk about betting big amounts than actually do it.
One point I would make is that if you are going to compare how much flat betting would make vs. the system plays, you should take the average of how much you are willing to bet on the system and use that for flat betting calculations.
55+110+220 = 385 / 3 = 128.33, so even if you want to round down, flat betting at $110 to win 100 better represents the same amount of risk. If you want to get really into it, see how often you have gone to level 2, and how often you have gone to level 3, and do an actual average, but that seems like a lot of work.
Whatever you do, keep on winning!!!
Good Luck,
Bart
Thanks for the plays.
And, don't believe everything you read, especially when it comes to how much people bet
Very easy for people to say they bet hundreds or thousands, not too many people actually do it. I always think of when one of the books went out of business and transferred the balances over to another book that bailed them out. Average total balance of all those folks betting hundreds a game was $79. Doesn't mean that some people don't bet decent amounts, but far more talk about betting big amounts than actually do it.
One point I would make is that if you are going to compare how much flat betting would make vs. the system plays, you should take the average of how much you are willing to bet on the system and use that for flat betting calculations.
55+110+220 = 385 / 3 = 128.33, so even if you want to round down, flat betting at $110 to win 100 better represents the same amount of risk. If you want to get really into it, see how often you have gone to level 2, and how often you have gone to level 3, and do an actual average, but that seems like a lot of work.
Whatever you do, keep on winning!!!
Good Luck,
Bart
Interesting. I don't like chasing by it itself, but this sytem has the three in a row on the same team, which I do like. That is, the spread will change for each game they don't cover, making the third game a very likely cover. As you say, if Clev gets beat bad today, the point spread will be much more favorable in the future.
I'll have to look into this one closer.
What would be really interesting is if I started your system only after the first loss. Since each pick after is stronger (hypothetically), then my first pick would be strong (being your second pick).
Keep up the posts, I'm interested to see how it turns out in in the long run.
I'll have to look into this one closer.
What would be really interesting is if I started your system only after the first loss. Since each pick after is stronger (hypothetically), then my first pick would be strong (being your second pick).
Keep up the posts, I'm interested to see how it turns out in in the long run.
>
rich dude, that was a thread that tater started, where he picked against teams that were on the road for 3 or more in a row.
My system is different. Read this thread and some of my previous one's for explanations of how my system works.
To summarize, I pick teams to bet on or against for 3 consecutive games, unless they win one of the first two.
eg. I had 4 system plays for tonight. 2 won (Minny and Clev) and 2 lost (Miami and Portland).
Now I will double down on Portland and Miami for their next game.
So, no matter what the line is, I will bet on Portland when they face Boston on Wednesday. I also will bet on Miami when they face Atlanta on Wednesday.
If these teams don't cover those games, then I will bet on them one last time, doubling down on their next game. Understand?
My system is different. Read this thread and some of my previous one's for explanations of how my system works.
To summarize, I pick teams to bet on or against for 3 consecutive games, unless they win one of the first two.
eg. I had 4 system plays for tonight. 2 won (Minny and Clev) and 2 lost (Miami and Portland).
Now I will double down on Portland and Miami for their next game.
So, no matter what the line is, I will bet on Portland when they face Boston on Wednesday. I also will bet on Miami when they face Atlanta on Wednesday.
If these teams don't cover those games, then I will bet on them one last time, doubling down on their next game. Understand?
GoUH, I don't just start my first pick anywhere.
I look for spots where I feel my first game is strong, and secondly, if it loses that the upcoming games are even stronger.
My record for only my first pick of all new system picks is 31-20.
If I don't like my first pick, I won't make the bet.
Hope this explanation helps.
I look for spots where I feel my first game is strong, and secondly, if it loses that the upcoming games are even stronger.
My record for only my first pick of all new system picks is 31-20.
If I don't like my first pick, I won't make the bet.
Hope this explanation helps.
SYSTEM PICKS FOR TUESDAY:
1 pending pick:
MILWAUKEE +3 FOR 100
too many injuries for Indy. Artest, O'Neil, Tinsley all probable, but not 100% healthy. Milwaukee is solid at home, and will pull away at the end.
If Milwaukee does not get home court (4th spot) they will be in trouble, they know it and so do we. An excellent home record of 24-12.
They are avg. 105 points their last 5, 4 of which were on the road.
I think they win this by 6 pts.
MILW 113 - INDY 107
new system picks:
DENVER -5.5 FOR 50
PORTLAND, UTAH, DENVER, these are the teams fighting for the last playoff spot. Not Seattle! Yes, Seattle playing great ball, but they will not make the post season. Revenge! Seattle killed Denver 4 nights ago. Now it's Denver's turn to destroy them and get back into the 8th spot.
Denver 7-4 on 2 days rest, Seattle 5-7.
DEN 95 - SEA 85
AGAINST PHILI, TAKING G.STATE +1.5
Can't understand this line?
Phili much better at home, yes.
G.State much worse on the road, yes.
No Iverson for the rest of the season, yes.
No chance in making the playoffs, NO CHANCE!(my opinion only)
Also, G.State is hot. This is as much a bet on Golden State as it is against Phili.
good luck
1 pending pick:
MILWAUKEE +3 FOR 100
too many injuries for Indy. Artest, O'Neil, Tinsley all probable, but not 100% healthy. Milwaukee is solid at home, and will pull away at the end.
If Milwaukee does not get home court (4th spot) they will be in trouble, they know it and so do we. An excellent home record of 24-12.
They are avg. 105 points their last 5, 4 of which were on the road.
I think they win this by 6 pts.
MILW 113 - INDY 107
new system picks:
DENVER -5.5 FOR 50
PORTLAND, UTAH, DENVER, these are the teams fighting for the last playoff spot. Not Seattle! Yes, Seattle playing great ball, but they will not make the post season. Revenge! Seattle killed Denver 4 nights ago. Now it's Denver's turn to destroy them and get back into the 8th spot.
Denver 7-4 on 2 days rest, Seattle 5-7.
DEN 95 - SEA 85
AGAINST PHILI, TAKING G.STATE +1.5
Can't understand this line?
Phili much better at home, yes.
G.State much worse on the road, yes.
No Iverson for the rest of the season, yes.
No chance in making the playoffs, NO CHANCE!(my opinion only)
Also, G.State is hot. This is as much a bet on Golden State as it is against Phili.
good luck
