Fans who believe that "defense wins championships" should be pleased with this matchup between the two best defenses in the NFL. However, even with these defenses, do not count out a comeback should either team get down big quickly. Conventional wisdom says Denver's conservative offense can least afford to fall behind the way so many of Carolina's recent opponents have. However, the Broncos have come back to win after trailing by 14 points three times this season, and did so against top AFC teams (the Chiefs, Patriots, and Bengals). They also erased a 17-point deficit in Indianapolis (Manning's last road start) before losing. We know very well that Carolina let huge second-half leads against the Colts, Packers, Giants, and Seahawks shrink quickly. We also know that Denver has blown leads of 17 (Pittsburgh) and 12 (Oakland) points this season, while Carolina, despite its run-heavy reputation, has the scoring power to rally back from behind.
Even though Carolina's offense lacks the usual efficiency of a top-scoring unit, it is still considerably better than any version of offense the 2015 Broncos have fielded. That difference, combined with Carolina's season-long superiority in the turnover battle, is why the Panthers are a deserving favorite of 5.5 points. If the Broncos lose the turnover battle to a Carolina team that led the league with a plus-20 differential, this could get ugly like some Denver Super Bowls of the past. That is why the Denver defense must be the best one on the field Sunday night, and why Carolina has more flexibility to find a way to win Super Bowl 50 for the first title in team history.
However, Denver's defense has done an incredible job of keeping games close all season. The only real blowout was the Week 10 loss to Kansas City where a clearly injured Manning was turning the ball over constantly. He is not likely to play so poorly in what should be the final game of his career. This is a much different team than the one that took the field in that 43-8 mess two years ago in Super Bowl XLVIII, where the game was basically over one play into the third quarter. If Denver can manage the early storm and keep the score close into the fourth quarter, then this will be anyone's game.
102DENVER +6, -110 5 UNITS
102DENVER ML +205 1 UNIT
Even though Carolina's offense lacks the usual efficiency of a top-scoring unit, it is still considerably better than any version of offense the 2015 Broncos have fielded. That difference, combined with Carolina's season-long superiority in the turnover battle, is why the Panthers are a deserving favorite of 5.5 points. If the Broncos lose the turnover battle to a Carolina team that led the league with a plus-20 differential, this could get ugly like some Denver Super Bowls of the past. That is why the Denver defense must be the best one on the field Sunday night, and why Carolina has more flexibility to find a way to win Super Bowl 50 for the first title in team history.
However, Denver's defense has done an incredible job of keeping games close all season. The only real blowout was the Week 10 loss to Kansas City where a clearly injured Manning was turning the ball over constantly. He is not likely to play so poorly in what should be the final game of his career. This is a much different team than the one that took the field in that 43-8 mess two years ago in Super Bowl XLVIII, where the game was basically over one play into the third quarter. If Denver can manage the early storm and keep the score close into the fourth quarter, then this will be anyone's game.
102DENVER +6, -110 5 UNITS
102DENVER ML +205 1 UNIT
