Super Bowl Pick! (pending outcome of nfc but write up goes for either outcome)

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i'm pounding seattle at -1 or -2 whatever it ends up being.... or plus points if the public gets too excited.

1. the best defenses den has played all year are the texans, chiefs, and chargers. none of these defenses hold a candle to seattle's d and especially with this game being played in the meadowlands. between the grabbing and pushing its going to be sherman playing the role of ty law and frustrating manning into turnovers and fg instead of td. i mean jeez, even the poor pats d forced 4 fg by the broncos. the should have been close to 40 in that game with the ease that they were moving the ball.
2. everyone and their mom will be all over the broncos and manning with the strong showing he had vs ne, passing for over 400 yards. he was picking on a decimated pats defense.
3. defense and running games travel well, and seattle already tasted the meadowlands in their victory over the giants earlier this year. there is some type of familiarity.
4.this seattle team reminds me of the ravens in 2001. their d is good enough so that their qb can have pedestrian stats and still win easily. only difference is that wilson is better than dilfer. he can pick up some timely 1st downs with this legs and comes up with timely throws. if you remember, the giants had like the 3 or 4th ranked defense the year the ravens blasted them in the superbowl, but that raven d was just that good.
5. denver with tebow, and now with manning have been a fan favorite for about 3 yrs now. all the housewives know them and manning. all the casual fans know manning and the broncos. most people havent seen seattle play. they are geographically isolated. their games arent on tv except when they are on primetime. even the fantasy players out there, they love manning, decker, thomas, thomas.. all these guys helped them get to their fantasy playoffs. who does seattle have that the fantasy players love. lynch and the defense. no sexy enough.
6. there's more reasons, and i'll add to this over the next two weeks.
 

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agree. same thinking. after the sharps strip the line. public will bet the donkeys.
7 seattle is the most disrespected team in the league by a bettors standpoint
 

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egular season record
sides 30-16-1
6 pt teasers 4-7-1
halftime bets 5-11

Playoff record
2-1-2 sides
1-0 in game
1-1 halftime
2-0 moneyline

i have placed my bet on seattle -1. probably hit it again later after line moves in my favor.
 

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seattle should have beat sf going away, they caused 4 fumbles only recovered 1.
 

seer
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yes plus lousy play calling it should have been a bigger margin
 

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line down to pick, should have waited 15 min. when it gets to den -3 i'll hit seattle again
 

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Didn't Denver win in NY this year?

#3 should be a wash.
yeah you're right.

6. harvin will be back
7. everybody and their mom hates richard sherman. this bodes well for seattle, they can keep playing the "we are disrespected everyone hates us" card.
 

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8. just realized den played at the meadowlands 2nd game of season, seattle played there in december. i'm assuming the winds were stronger in dec than in sept. however, i have also read that the winds at the new stadium are nothing like it was at the old stadium so this may be a non-factor. i would have bet seattle even if this game was in a dome.
9. peyton (and every qb) is a different qb vs a strong pass rush. its how the giants beat the pats twice as underdogs, and its how the chargers had peyton's number during his indianapolis days.
10. i see some people talking about how good the bronco d has been. i believe this is due to the bronco offense. peyton keeps the clock running with completions, and once they have a 2 score lead teams become one dimensional. result is low amount of rush attempts (means den rush defense appears better than it is) and less defensive snaps for den (meaning den defense allows less yards. seattle's d will not allow they long time consuming drives, and will hold den to fg.
 

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8. just realized den played at the meadowlands 2nd game of season, seattle played there in december. i'm assuming the winds were stronger in dec than in sept. however, i have also read that the winds at the new stadium are nothing like it was at the old stadium so this may be a non-factor. i would have bet seattle even if this game was in a dome.
9. peyton (and every qb) is a different qb vs a strong pass rush. its how the giants beat the pats twice as underdogs, and its how the chargers had peyton's number during his indianapolis days.
10. i see some people talking about how good the bronco d has been. i believe this is due to the bronco offense. peyton keeps the clock running with completions, and once they have a 2 score lead teams become one dimensional. result is low amount of rush attempts (means den rush defense appears better than it is) and less defensive snaps for den (meaning den defense allows less yards. seattle's d will not allow they long time consuming drives, and will hold den to fg.

Essentially 16 of 18 games have been Den playing with the lead or essentially doing whatever they please (yes Skins game went somewhat differently and 1st NE game was an unusual situation) with zero 4th quarter pressure. I see this game way more in the camp of the Ind game and the SD game and SEA is far superior to those teams. SEA is the most complete team Den will have faced all year with enormous depth as well.

This is my most convicted SB play since NE vs STL

Of course weather could change everything especially with tons of snow - who knows how that will play out


Good luck,
Pistol
 

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Totally agree with your Sherman hate angle. The look ahead line for the SB over the past 6 weeks had been NFC -2/2.5
What really happened last Sunday to change this? Nothing really. Denver beat a decimated NE team (who then lost their most key defensive piece mid game), and Seattle beat the best or 2nd best team in football in the 49ers.
The one other thing that happened that day was the Sherman rant and now everyone hates him/them.
 

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Essentially 16 of 18 games have been Den playing with the lead or essentially doing whatever they please (yes Skins game went somewhat differently and 1st NE game was an unusual situation) with zero 4th quarter pressure. I see this game way more in the camp of the Ind game and the SD game and SEA is far superior to those teams. SEA is the most complete team Den will have faced all year with enormous depth as well.

This is my most convicted SB play since NE vs STL

Of course weather could change everything especially with tons of snow - who knows how that will play out


Good luck,
Pistol

yes, i don't think den has a played a team that can punch them in the mouth like this seattle team can (on both offense and defense). seattle will be by far the most physical team den has played this season.
 

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11. matt prater sent home with the flu. den sent him home so he doesnt get anyone else sick. the kicker getting sick is a non factor but maybe he sneezed on peyton's mouth piece, and the incubation period for the virus to take hold is 1 week!!!
 

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Agree with all of this.

Still trying to find a deciding factor on Denver's side to play my own devil's advocate, but it all lines up in Seattle's favor in my opinion. It can't be this easy.

Only thing on my end for Denver is my bias towards Peyton. I really want him to win another one. I just don't see it here.
 

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Imo the key here is to shut down beast mode and force Wilson to make the plays. Den does not really have a good pass rush, but in this case it may work to their advantage if they can just keep Wilson in the pocket and force him to throw into windows which he does not like to do. Wilson like to run around until the play breaks down and then throws it deep. The bottom line is to force a Manning vs Wilson game, if they can do that then Den wins.
 

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