Super Bowl Match-Up

[natick48]

"I think Carolina will give New England a better game," Walker said. "I do like New England in the game but seven is a lot of points."
Robert Walker, Linesmaker Mirage Hotel.

O.K. Robert, why don't you make the line 4 or 5? It is interesting when a linesmaker posts a number and then tells you it's maybe too high. Why don't they also tell you that Carolina has very little chance of covering the points, but the squares should go ahead and take the 7. Which the squares did, which is why the number sits at 6.5.

If you are thinking of taking the points you should ask yourself two questions:

1. Can Carolina win the game? After all if you bet the dog you have to at least believe they have a chance to win the game. The Patriots have won 14 straight beating good teams home and away. They are undefeated against above .500 If they are the best team in football today, Jan 19, it can be argued they beat the second and third best teams the last two weeks. Carolina on the other hand beat St. Louis (we now know was overrated) and Philly who should have lost to Green Bay but for two plays.

2. Can Carolina score enough points to keep the game under6.5-7? Yesterday, despite playing against a depleted Philly defense, Carolina coud put up only 14 Pts. Jake Delhomme playing on a better field than Foxboro was 9-14 for 101 yards. (Brady 27-37, 237 yards)

Yesterday The Patriots took away Marvin Harrison, gave Edgerrin James a few yards, made Peyton Manning move around. They essentially rendered The Colts offense useless.

Two final questions:

Who would you rather have:

Peyton Manning Jake Delhomme
Egerrin James Davis/Foster
Marvin Harrison et al Steven Smith et al

Do you think after ponering the above that Carolina can drive 70-80 yards and score a touchdown?

This has all the makings of an easy 20-3 Patriots win.

 

[SubZaero]

I've learned two things in this bussiness.
1.There's no such thing as a lock.
2.Anything can happen in NFL.

Sure, in paper looks like the Pats are gonna killed Car, but if Car got to the SB is because they have a decent enough team. I already said this in the NFL forum. What if the Panthers do to the Patriots what the Patriots did to the Rams 2 years ago and pull the upset???
Hmmmm, not sure but i think i'm taking the pts, just for the sake of it.

 

[Banned4Life]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR> Carolina on the other hand beat St. Louis (we now know was overrated) and Philly who should have lost to Green Bay but for two plays. <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

You want to talk overrated... well the Titans and Colts are as overrated as they come. Tennessee's QB was on life support, and Indy got beat by the weather more than the Pats. And Carolina won their games on the road while NE won at home.

 

[LEYKIS101]

Good writeup Natick.

 

[oldmanTED]

Without going into my normal analysis and selection which I will do on Superbowl Sunday, I can assure you of one thing. When you break the game down to it's fundamentals of man on man, position against position, strength against strength, and strength against weakness, both offensively and defensively as well as special teams, you will find that this is a very close match-up. Regardless of the ultimate outcome of this game, the line is too high. It was set at 7 as the books managers expect the public to bet the Patriots. There is a thread on that already in the Offshore Forum. Professionals have already and will continue to play Carolina. Even the book managers expect it. In my opinion, the appropriate line for this game should have been 4. The books are making the public pay the price for taking the favorite. I personally expect this game to play out to it's fundamentals and be a hard fought, tightly contested battle. When asking the question do I think the Panthers can win this game outright? My answer is a strongly definitive yes. Remember two years ago, did anyone think the Patriots +14 could beat the Rams outright. The fundamentals showed that they could and they did. This game is a lot more complex than just Brady or Delhomme. Look at all facets of the game before making your decision. I'm down already as I expect the line to move down not up.

 

[SportSavant]

thanks for the heads up ted, do you think it wise to take the 7.5 @ -120 or are you sticking with the 7...remembering that this is only one in many games...

 

[oldmanTED]

Savant:

I had to think about that as well and chose to be satisfied with 7. However, it may depend on the size of your play as well. Obviously, the larger the play, the greater the additional 10%. A smaller play may be worth it. I don't expect to need the 7 but an additional half allows for a win in lieu of a tie. It's really a personal choice here. If I thought the line was about right at 7, I might buy the half. But, since I think the line should be 4 and fully expect Carolina to either stay within the number, if not win outright, I decided not to buy.

 

[wilheim]

Once you have decided that the Panthers have a legitimate shot to win the game on the field, you have to ask yourself do you have the conviction to bet Carolina on the the money line. At + 217 (pinny) right now, does the ML. have more value than + 7 -110? For myself this will be my key decision if I decide to play the Panthers. Right now I am still not convinced one way or another which team is more likely to win the game outright. Plenty of time to make a decision, especially one regarding the ML. because IMO. a few dollars one way or another in money line movement are not near as important as waiting to long, and having to end up laying or taking a bad number.

wil.

 

[oldmanTED]

Wil:

Completely agree. A wager on the ML can wait as I don't see a great deal of movement until we near gameday. My problem is I passed on the Panthers at 6-1 in the final four because I had great difficulty deciding the outright winner between the Eagles and the Panthers and wrongly chose the Eagles. With that said, it makes it more difficult for me now to play them at +217. Just a personal trait.