Super Bowl analysis of star ratings on players...very interesting

[GoSooners]

This goes to show you that the NFL matrix for producing great teams is much different than the college game. I'll have more to say on this later. But I thought you guys would find this interesting.

Super Bowl Analysis of Star Rating On Players

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Stolen from another Board, but good info and too lazy to do analysis:

44 starters in the Super Bowl:
5 Star Recruits - 0
4 Star Recruits- 4
3 and below- 40

Being a 5 star player and having success in the NFL are apparently two different things

Name Position College Rating
Russell Wilson QB NC State/Wisconsin 3 star
Russell Okung LT Oklahoma State 3 star
James Carpenter LG Alabama 4 star
Max Unger C Oregon 3 star
J.R. Sweezy RG NC State 2 star
Justin Britt RT Missouri 3 star
Luke Willson TE Rice 2 star
Doug Baldwin WR Stanford 2 star
Jermaine Kearse WR Washington 3 star
Ricardo Lockette WR Fort Valley State NR
Marshawn Lynch RB California 4 star
Michael Bennett DE Texas A&M NR
Tony McDaniel DT Tennessee 3 star
Kevin Williams DT Oklahoma State N/A (too old)
Cliff Avril DE Purdue 3 star
Bruce Irvin LB West Virginia 4 star
Bobby Wagner LB Utah State 2 star
K.J. Wright LB Mississippi State 3 star
Richard Sherman CB Stanford 3 star
Earl Thomas FS Texas 3 star
Kam Chancellor SS Virginia Tech 3 star
Byron Maxwell CB Clemson 4 star
Steven Hauschka K NC State NR
Jon Ryan P Regina (Canada) N/A (from Canada)
Patriots

Name Position College Rating
Tom Brady QB Michigan N/A (too old)
Nate Solder LT Colorado 3 star
Dan Connolly LG Southeast Missouri State NR
Bryan Stork C Florida State 3 star
Josh Kline RG Kent State 2 star
Sebastian Vollmer RT Houston N/A (from Germany)
Rob Gronkowski TE Arizona 4 star
Julian Edelman WR Kent State 3 star
Brandon LaFell WR LSU 3 star
Danny Amendola WR Texas Tech 3 star
LeGarrette Blount RB Oregon 4 star
Rob Ninkovich DE Purdue 3 star
Vince Wilfork DT Miami 4 star
Chris Jones DT Bowling Green 2 star
Chandler Jones DE Syracuse 2 star
Jamie Collins LB Southern Mississippi 3 star
Dont'a Hightower LB Alabama 4 star
Jonathan Casillas LB Wisconsin 2 star
Darrelle Revis CB Pittsburgh 3 star
Devin McCourty FS Rutgers 3 star
Patrick Chung SS Oregon 2 star
Brandon Browner CB Oregon State 3 star
Stephen Gostkowski K Memphis N/A (kickers weren't always rated)
Ryan Allen P Louisiana Tech NR
More from SBNation.com

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Bama will have No. 1 class again. Who'll rank No. 2?
Predicting where the 8 uncommitted 5-stars will play
*4* of top 12 Heisman favorites play for Ohio State
Richard Sherman has a ton to say about the NCAA
Big Ten, Pac-12 have the most Super Bowl players

 

[rolltide]

funny they run the same article every monday after super bowl sunday. last year was "only 3 five stars" played in den/sea (harvin, ware, and michael...all seahawks)

what is silly is that only 1% of players get rated 5-stars so you're dealing with the absolutely smallest pot imaginable so you can never expect to see some huge % of 5-star guys in any game in the nfl. We're talking about 32-35 players/year.

a far more relevant stat is that more than 50% of 5-star players get drafted in the NFL with almost 30% of them going in the first 2 rounds. that is an astounding % which proves that recruiting services seem to know a little about recruiting. Further to that they did a study on future NFL tenure and found that 39% of 5-stars have become tenured NFL players. That is insane....as a 5-star you have a 2 in 5 shot at a long career in the NFL. That is a ridiculously high %. btw the conference with the worst ratio of 5-stars to tenured NFL players was the Big 12 at 30%...highest was PAC 12 at 50% ... so 1 in 2 PAC10 5-star recruits have become tenured NFL players....this is going back to 2002 and includes every player whose eligibility ended by 2013 (aka if they weren't in NFL already, they never will be)

unfortunately, for many of these 5-stars, the better you are the more likely you're getting drafted by a shitty NFL team

people love to come up with ways to discount recruiting but it never works.

 

[russ1945]

I still have my doubts about recruiting rankings etc and Boise St was always the school I brought up as one that sent players to the NFL that were not even ranked sometimes. I do have a question though. Of all the players who were run out of Austin, I wonder how they were ranked when they signed with Texas. I have always thought some Texas recruits were over rated but it might be interesting to know what the average recruiting rankings were for any or all teams going into a new season and track it. I have seen compilations of the team rankings by year but never seen the individual rankings added up on a player basis only.

 

[GoSooners]

I'm a little more surprised at the lack of 4 star talent as well as 5 star. What it tells me though is the NFL isn't the same game as the college game. It has more to do with what is between the ears and player development after high school than it does the number of stars you have after your name during HS. Just to make it clear, I think recruiting rankings are very important coming out of HS. Especially when it comes to playing for national championships. I just found the NFL aspect of it pretty interesting. My take on why there are so many 2 and 3 stars on successful NFL teams is for example when you have a 5 star recruit, they can start for any division 1 team as a freshman. When you have a 4 star they can potentially start for a division one team or see significant playing time as a freshman. With a 3 star, they possibly get some playing time, but are more likely to redshirt as a freshman. And with 2 stars, a redshirt with most of these recruits considered projects as freshmen.

By a players senior year, many are already gone, so that alone diminishes the number of 5 stars out there, and some 4's.. At age 22 you have a fully developed young man, and has outgrown the "can he contribute right away" phase. Some of these 5 stars, while more talented, might be a little behind the 8 ball in not only being picked by shitty teams. But their age and lack of maturity by declaring early for the NFL probably has something to do with slower development. It didn't used to be this way before free agency completely took over the game. I remember Jimmy Johnson at Dallas starting from scratch with a bunch of young 5 star recruits and taking their lumps in the first couple of years before they became Super Bowl champions. You don't see that anymore. Everybody is about winning right now.

 

[GoSooners]

I still have my doubts about recruiting rankings etc and Boise St was always the school I brought up as one that sent players to the NFL that were not even ranked sometimes. I do have a question though. Of all the players who were run out of Austin, I wonder how they were ranked when they signed with Texas. I have always thought some Texas recruits were over rated but it might be interesting to know what the average recruiting rankings were for any or all teams going into a new season and track it. I have seen compilations of the team rankings by year but never seen the individual rankings added up on a player basis only.

When it comes to winning this conference, there are things I care more about than recruiting rankings. And both Texas of the past and OU of the present are having the same problems: 1.Coaches committed to a scheme 2.Finding talent that fits the scheme 3.A strength and conditioning program that molds talent to fit the scheme 4.Coaches being able to develop talent to run the scheme effectively. If you don't have all 4 of these pahses going, you can have all of the 5 star recruits in the world and it wouldn't do you any good. Sure, i would love to see OU land some of these 5 star recruits. But the money is made by creating program that builds star players. KSU and Boise St. is an example of teams who do all 4 phases very well with much less talent than OU. You can't teach height or length, but you can make a player stronger, faster and smarter. If Stoops can get back to doing this, if he builds it they will come. And he'll start getting those 5 stars players and again be a top 10 recruiting program. Right now I'm just not convinced at all that he is on the right track.

 

[GoSooners]

By the way, the two players who contributed the most to the Pats winning the game were Brady, who was a 6th round draft choice who was around before Rivals even had star rankings. And the player who made the game winning interception was from Western Alabama.

 

[rolltide]

By the way, the two players who contributed the most to the Pats winning the game were Brady, who was a 6th round draft choice who was around before Rivals even had star rankings. And the player who made the game winning interception was from Western Alabama.

and if the dumbfucks hand it to lynch to win the super bowl a 4-star running back wins the MVP. so, we can all cherry pick

not sure you guys are getting the point here, btw. 90% of college players are rated 3 stars or less so why would you be surprised that 90% of the starting 44 are <=3 stars? There are only so many players available to make up NFL rosters....

how can anyone "still have doubts about recruiting rankings"? unreal

 

[GoSooners]

and if the dumbfucks hand it to lynch to win the super bowl a 4-star running back wins the MVP. so, we can all cherry pick

not sure you guys are getting the point here, btw. 90% of college players are rated 3 stars or less so why would you be surprised that 90% of the starting 44 are <=3 stars? There are only so many players available to make up NFL rosters....

how can anyone "still have doubts about recruiting rankings"? unreal

I know what you're saying RT, but when I think of the NFL I think of only the most elite of players playing in an elite fraternity.. I would at least think more of these 4 and 5 star players would be spread over winning programs. Especially with all of the free agency we have in pro sports these days. With the percentage of 4 and 5 stars in the NFL I would expect to see bigger numbers on championship teams.

 

[cloverleaf]

I don't have time right now but if someone wants to list the past 5, 6, 10 national champions and then list how they did the three years before with regards to recruiting (rankings).

A great example is FSU and Fisher. The guy may do more with less (recruiting $$$) than any coach among the big boys. It takes players to win national championships. If not, why did Ohio State not have a string of them before Urban Meyer? Might be a good look at how Urban has recruited since arriving in Columbus.

 

[rolltide]

I know what you're saying RT, but when I think of the NFL I think of only the most elite of players playing in an elite fraternity.. I would at least think more of these 4 and 5 star players would be spread over winning programs. Especially with all of the free agency we have in pro sports these days. With the percentage of 4 and 5 stars in the NFL I would expect to see bigger numbers on championship teams.

but statistically it's just not possible. There are, on average, 33 five-stars per year. even if everyone of those guys made the NFL that is 1 per team. the average per year is 1% five star, 90% <four star. If you want to take the 44 starters you would expect 40 of them to be <4 stars...simply by players available. Half of the approx 33 five stars will be in the NFL so that means one out of every two teams, on average, will have one of these on their roster...why would you expect any team, winning or not, to have more than a couple since the pool is so small?

the difference is the elite player...that 1st and 2nd round draft pick. Your chances of being a top 2 round pick are exponentially greater if you're a 4-5 star out of high school, and not a 3 or lower. it's just simple math and facts.

kudos to seattle (who had three 5 stars last year when they won) and new england to winning a bowl without a 5-star but it in no way proves that recruiting isn't valuable 3-4 years later when these guys are NFL eligible.

2 out of every 5 five stars will go on to be a tenured NFL player. Might now win a super bowl, sure, but if that isn't a ridiculous ratio I don't know what is

 

[CoachCB]

The "star ratings" do have their merits. Very few kids who sign w/ the Bama's, Ohio State's, Florida State's, UGA's, etc are less than 3-stars.

But honestly, what's the difference in a 2-star kid vs. a low 3-star? And a mid 3-star vs. a 4-star?

There's a story right now about a kid from New Mexico that broke all kinds of records, is 6'3 200lbs, did well at the camps he went to....but has no college offers. Basically, colleges don't recruit the state of New Mexico.

CL brought up Boise. They do a great job of developing talent....which is what most colleges are required to do these days, especially the non-power schools.

Personally, I'd rather see my class full of 4 & 5 star guys than 3 star. But that's just me.....

 

[rolltide]

But honestly, what's the difference in a 2-star kid vs. a low 3-star?

depends on the service. scout used to take NR's and then give a kid 2-star if he got a D-1 Scholarship.... in that case I'd say there was a very big difference. overall i really don't think there is a huge difference b/w a low-4 star (outside or rivals 250 or espn 300) and a 3-star player and statistically there is little evidence to support any difference.

as far as your example on the NM player...doesn't make sense. if he performs well at camps he gets rated. period. ESPN doesn't take camp performance into their ratings as much as rivals, for example, but camp participation would be the only thing a NM kid could really get rated on since the level is so low.

blake barnett is a good example of importance of camp. He was 5-star rating with talk of being overall #1 player in nation after winning the Elite 11 competition then performed very poorly at the post-season bowl camp (i think he was Under Armour Bowl, can't remember) and not only fell out of possible overall #1 but lost a star as well.

if a NM or HI or ME kid goes to a camp and does well he will have college offers as long as his camps were big-time camps and not some local BS. If you're a big time player at a nike or rivals camps you're going 1A

 

[GoSooners]

but statistically it's just not possible. There are, on average, 33 five-stars per year. even if everyone of those guys made the NFL that is 1 per team. the average per year is 1% five star, 90% <four star. If you want to take the 44 starters you would expect 40 of them to be <4 stars...simply by players available. Half of the approx 33 five stars will be in the NFL so that means one out of every two teams, on average, will have one of these on their roster...why would you expect any team, winning or not, to have more than a couple since the pool is so small?

the difference is the elite player...that 1st and 2nd round draft pick. Your chances of being a top 2 round pick are exponentially greater if you're a 4-5 star out of high school, and not a 3 or lower. it's just simple math and facts.

kudos to seattle (who had three 5 stars last year when they won) and new england to winning a bowl without a 5-star but it in no way proves that recruiting isn't valuable 3-4 years later when these guys are NFL eligible.

2 out of every 5 five stars will go on to be a tenured NFL player. Might now win a super bowl, sure, but if that isn't a ridiculous ratio I don't know what is

I would still like to see how many 5 star players we have in the NFL at the moment. The three Seattle had last year seems like it would be more the norm to me than the exception. But I could be wrong since I don't have the exact numbers. What surprises me more than this is the Seattle Times stated today that the Seahawks 53 man squad includes 22 undrafted free agents. That amazes me. I'm not sure that is typical on most NFL teams...

 

[RunLeeRun]

The catch is "if" you go to camps. Plenty of kids that dont make the rounds. The midwest is an area that isnt as highly invested as far as camps. So, there are plenty of kids that fly under the radar.

 

[CoachCB]

as far as your example on the NM player...doesn't make sense. if he performs well at camps he gets rated. period. ESPN doesn't take camp performance into their ratings as much as rivals, for example, but camp participation would be the only thing a NM kid could really get rated on since the level is so low.

blake barnett is a good example of importance of camp. He was 5-star rating with talk of being overall #1 player in nation after winning the Elite 11 competition then performed very poorly at the post-season bowl camp (i think he was Under Armour Bowl, can't remember) and not only fell out of possible overall #1 but lost a star as well.

if a NM or HI or ME kid goes to a camp and does well he will have college offers as long as his camps were big-time camps and not some local BS. If you're a big time player at a nike or rivals camps you're going 1A

Here's the NM kid's story:

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/...-best-football-prospect-nobodys-ever-heard-of

Easton Bruere should be having the time of his life right now.

He just finished his senior season as quarterback at Rio Rancho (New Mexico) High School by leading it to a 13-0 record and a 6A state title.
According to MaxPreps, Easton threw for 4,567 yards and 49 touchdowns with only six interceptions this season. In the process, he became the state's all-time leader in passing yards.

Easton should be getting ready to enjoy his final semester of high school before heading off to college to resume his playing career.

But there's one small problem.

He has zero scholarship offers less than a week before national signing day.

How could he find himself in this situation?

The primary reasons for his present circumstances are largely beyond his control.

Given that he checks in at 6'3", 200 pounds—measurements that place him bigger or equal to 24 of the nation's top 50 pro-style passers in the 2015 class—his measurables aren't an issue like they were for Desmon White last year.

According to his father, Carl, Easton attended numerous camps—including those held at schools in the Big Ten, Big 12, Mountain West and the Pac-12—prior to his senior season.

"They've all really loved him," Carl told Bleacher Report. "They showed him a lot of love when he visited. They thought he had great size and a good arm and things of that nature. They all said he's definitely a Division I quarterback."

Carl said that at first, Easton would get excited when mail would arrive from colleges. That joy faded over time, when he realized there was nothing of substance enclosed.

"He's got tons of letters," Carl said. "It's funny, because he stopped opening them because he knew it was filler mail. He got letters from 20 or 30 colleges, and once in a while, there would be a handwritten letter from a coach. But it's really strange, because they came from places all over the country. But he knew what they were. He was excited at first. But then, it's like, 'OK, I know what this is.'"

 

[GoSooners]

The catch is "if" you go to camps. Plenty of kids that dont make the rounds. The midwest is an area that isnt as highly invested as far as camps. So, there are plenty of kids that fly under the radar.

I brought this same subject up last week. Not attending these camps, especially Rivals, is probably an automatic downgrade for some of these rural midwest kids..Lots of diamonds in the rough out in the boonies..

 

[rolltide]

interesting story coach but hardly unique. from what i read about the kid he attended two campus....UNM and NMSU. well UNM run an option-based offense and he's not an option qb....NMSU already have 7 scholarship QB's so pretty much knocks out both of them. Next closest teams are TTU and UTEP and both have visited him but not offered so it's not like they aren't aware of him and UTEP is dead last in the nation in recruiting so they need players. Also saw south dakota and south dakota state visited him and didn't offer so clearly there is some issues beyond him being a hidden gem in new mexico

a couple years ago there was a guy named Trey Anderson who won the Texas 5-A title with a great senior year at 16-0. He had ZERO offers and couldn't understand why nobody was offering and the ratings services had him either 2-star or NR. well Pitt hired Graham and his OC was from Houston so knew the kid and STILL didn't offer him but instead allowed him to walk on and earn a scholarship. Lucky for him Pitt had 2 QB leave program and another move from QB to safety so he got his schollie...but also showed why he was never offered one in the first place. He is just absolutely awful

another one here in PA about 5 miles from my house was Dillon Beuchel. Nobody could figure out how the hell he had zero D1 offers. He was 3rd in state history in passing yards and won the WPIAL title with 41 TD's at the 2nd highest level in PA football and was on the Fab-22 in WPIAL for 3 years...so hardly some unknown player

never got an offer despite Pitt obviously in need of that position and is now playing at 1-AA duquesne.

i do agree that sometimes rankings make no sense. we have a player in pittsburgh that is heading to state penn...sterling jenkins. he is the #2 rated player in Western PA and a 4-star but nobody knows how or why. He couldn't make either the 1st or 2nd team all region which means the local guys that follow college football don't think he's one of the top 50 players in western PA
- yet the agencies love this kid. i guess it's because he's 6'8" 300 lb but on the field he's not very good. still, if you're a state penn fan you have to be happy about getting a 4-star rated player even if nobody is quite sure how he got that rating.

 

[russ1945]

Where first-round picks of last five years rated out of high school

• 
• By Mike Huguenin
• College Football 24/7 writer
• Published: Feb. 3, 2015 at 02:11 p.m.
• Updated: Feb. 4, 2015 at 12:57 p.m.
• 4 Likes | 1 Comments

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National Signing Day is Wednesday, and that means that every player who signs -- at least according to every fan of every team -- has a chance to become an All-American and a first-round pick.
It's not that easy, of course. There is no real science involved in player evaluation, otherwise no college player would fail to produce and no draft pick would ever be a bust.

​

To that end, we decided to take a look at the past five drafts and examine where the first-rounders were ranked as recruits coming out of high school.
There were 160 first-rounders in that span, and 26 of them were rated as five-star prospects (16 percent) by Rivals.com as high school seniors. That's an impressive ratio, considering FBS schools sign about 2,500 football players each season. There generally are just 30 five-star prospects annually, meaning less than 1.5 percent of the players signed are five-star guys.
Two of the overall No. 1 picks in that span were former five-star players: Jadeveon Clowney last year and Cam Newtonin 2011. Clowney also was the nation's overall No. 1 prospect in the 2011 recruiting class.
Most of the 66 first-rounders from the last six years have been former four-star prospects. There are about 275 to 300 four-star prospects annually, which means most players who sign with colleges each season -- about 85 percent -- are two- or three-star guys.
In the last five first rounds of the NFL draft, there also have been 49 three-star prospects, 17 two-star prospects and two unranked prospects who were selected. The unranked prospects were Brandon Weeden, who graduated from high school before Rivals had a ranking system, then played five seasons of minor league baseball; and Ziggy Ansah, who went to high school in Ghana and arrived at BYU as a track athlete.
Of the 17 two-star prospects who became first-round picks, 10 signed with schools in Conference USA, the MAC and the now-defunct WAC. That means "big" schools missed on them, too. One of those 10 was J.J. Watt, who signed with Central Michigan before transferring to Wisconsin. Another was Eric Fisher, who attended Central Michigan and was the overall No. 1 pick in the 2013 draft. Four of those two-star prospects played for schools that were in the now-defunct Big East, with two from the Big 12 and one from the Big Ten.

 

[CoachCB]

There were 15 5-star players in the National Championship football game.....

It matters.

 

[GoSooners]

There were 15 5-star players in the National Championship football game.....

It matters.

It definitely does...