Good point BIG Wave. Please see a previous thread of mine titled "Suns 2nd half total YTD: 14-2". In that thread Sportsrmylife talks about the 1st-half total being over 60% of the total for the game. He mentions the 2nd-half total usually goes under in that case which is the case for the last 2 games. In this game, the total for the 1st half is 56.9% of the total for the game.BIG Wave said:
I believe when the 2 teams score over 60% of the total they get worn out. That is not the case here.
Damn! I missed it.Sportsrmylife said:
I'm spreading myself too thin sometimes with NBA and the weekend soccer matches. I'll have to pay serious attention to your theory.
I also lost on the Detroit 2nd half not knowing one of their players was out (Wallace?). I won on the Milw. bet though, 2nd half line less than the amount the home team is behind. Covered nicely.
Thanks for the input.
Sportsrmylife:
I just remembered that you asked earlier what system I was using for my Suns 2nd half picks. Well, it's a variation on almost every system I use. That being that the linesmakers cannot make a line that is too one-sided or everyone will take the one side. Therefore, there exist teams that will beat the line in most instances. Those teams being very good teams or very bad teams. That's why I also choose Spurs games against weak teams.
For example, most people would see the Suns get ahead by 15 at the half and bet the under thinking the Suns would slow it down being ahead. That would not be a good bet because the Suns run whether they are up by 15 or down by 15 and that leads to more overs for 2nd halfs. The only times I've seen the Suns go under (except recently) is when the other team dictates the pace of the game. That is done either by slowing down the half-court offense or using a zone successfully.
So I have been betting the Suns mostly over for the 2nd half because they usually don't slow down in the second half like most squares figure they would if 2 teams have a total over 110 in the 1st half and a 100+ total in the 2nd. I use the exception of betting the under if their opponent has successfully slowed down the pace in the 1st half.
There's more to it than that of course since I watch almost every game on TV. I can get a good feel for the game.
I just remembered that you asked earlier what system I was using for my Suns 2nd half picks. Well, it's a variation on almost every system I use. That being that the linesmakers cannot make a line that is too one-sided or everyone will take the one side. Therefore, there exist teams that will beat the line in most instances. Those teams being very good teams or very bad teams. That's why I also choose Spurs games against weak teams.
For example, most people would see the Suns get ahead by 15 at the half and bet the under thinking the Suns would slow it down being ahead. That would not be a good bet because the Suns run whether they are up by 15 or down by 15 and that leads to more overs for 2nd halfs. The only times I've seen the Suns go under (except recently) is when the other team dictates the pace of the game. That is done either by slowing down the half-court offense or using a zone successfully.
So I have been betting the Suns mostly over for the 2nd half because they usually don't slow down in the second half like most squares figure they would if 2 teams have a total over 110 in the 1st half and a 100+ total in the 2nd. I use the exception of betting the under if their opponent has successfully slowed down the pace in the 1st half.
There's more to it than that of course since I watch almost every game on TV. I can get a good feel for the game.
Hey quatumleap,
I hope you're not too depressed by your losses. We all have certain cold and hot streaks. Even though you lost a few games, your record still stands at very respectable 14-5. The better cappers average 66% winners, and the most exceptional cappers consistently pick above 70%. Tonight's line, 103.5, was a win for the line-makers, and not a loss for you. They predicted a perfect line.
Sportsmylife,
Your first theory makes perfect sense to me, but I am a true believer in the old cliche: "numbers don't lie." Theoretically, a game featuring teams that score more than what line-makers expected usually means lots of running around and playing little or no D. And, as the players get tired, they may slow down after 2 quarters of cherry-picking type of game. But, I feel that your theory may not fully apply to a young, run-n-gun team like the Suns. I went to the lakers vs suns game, and the Suns seemed as if they could sprint for all 4 quarters. Personally, I would be little apprehensive about applying your theory to the Suns. But, as for other teams, such as Orlando vs GSW on Friday, your theory was money.
Just my 2 cents worth..
keep up the good work, both of you.
and thanks for your posts. I'm learning a lot.
I hope you're not too depressed by your losses. We all have certain cold and hot streaks. Even though you lost a few games, your record still stands at very respectable 14-5. The better cappers average 66% winners, and the most exceptional cappers consistently pick above 70%. Tonight's line, 103.5, was a win for the line-makers, and not a loss for you. They predicted a perfect line.
Sportsmylife,
Your first theory makes perfect sense to me, but I am a true believer in the old cliche: "numbers don't lie." Theoretically, a game featuring teams that score more than what line-makers expected usually means lots of running around and playing little or no D. And, as the players get tired, they may slow down after 2 quarters of cherry-picking type of game. But, I feel that your theory may not fully apply to a young, run-n-gun team like the Suns. I went to the lakers vs suns game, and the Suns seemed as if they could sprint for all 4 quarters. Personally, I would be little apprehensive about applying your theory to the Suns. But, as for other teams, such as Orlando vs GSW on Friday, your theory was money.
Just my 2 cents worth..
keep up the good work, both of you.
and thanks for your posts. I'm learning a lot.
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eric:
By no means am I depressed about my losses. I could have won the most recent pick had a few things changed. This was not a bad pick on my part. The 2 games previous to that had Sportsrmylife's theory come true and I was able to learn from that.
I'm just waiting to see if the books have adjusted to this system. I also feel I have a responsibility to the people who are following my picks so as not to keep picking a system that is no longer valuable. I hope to return to this system. I'll make my own picks offline and if I do well I will return.
Thanks for the words of encouragement.
By no means am I depressed about my losses. I could have won the most recent pick had a few things changed. This was not a bad pick on my part. The 2 games previous to that had Sportsrmylife's theory come true and I was able to learn from that.
I'm just waiting to see if the books have adjusted to this system. I also feel I have a responsibility to the people who are following my picks so as not to keep picking a system that is no longer valuable. I hope to return to this system. I'll make my own picks offline and if I do well I will return.
Thanks for the words of encouragement.
