SunDog said:
Folks - Forgot the analysis. I will make it simple.
I have done well not to follow the hype in the playoffs and and have a
3- 1 win/loss ratio substantiated on another site (B/C- under spearit). :smoker2:
6-0 in my last 6 plays.
I see Dallas taking this game. Why--- Well, only once since the 2-3-2 format has been in effect for approxmately 20 years- only Detroit has won the mid- three games at home. Thats an incredible percentage working in this game- 19-1 Record -that the team at home will lose in its try for a third home win. Three away teams won all 3 games but only once has the home team provided such a scene. Miami will be on cruise- if it isn't broke - don't fix it. Dallas is even more determined and focused. Nowitski will find the mark and Terry will cut and slash to the basket. Wade can not be neutralized at least not yet but in this game -his touches will be minimized.
MIAMI is 11-23 ATS (-14.3 Units) when playing only their 2nd game in 5 days this season.
The average score was MIAMI 98.4, OPPONENT 98.7 - (Rating = 1*)
MIAMI is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in home games after a win by 10 points or more this season.
The average score was MIAMI 95.3, OPPONENT 96.7 - (Rating = 1*)
MIAMI is 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) in home games after a game where they covered the spread this season.
The average score was MIAMI 96.8, OPPONENT 95.9 - (Rating = 1*)
MIAMI is 2-12 ATS (-11.2 Units) in home games after 2 or more consecutive wins this season.
The average score was MIAMI 104.4, OPPONENT 102.4 - (Rating = 2*)
The average score was MIAMI 98.4, OPPONENT 98.7 - (Rating = 1*)
MIAMI is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in home games after a win by 10 points or more this season.
The average score was MIAMI 95.3, OPPONENT 96.7 - (Rating = 1*)
MIAMI is 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) in home games after a game where they covered the spread this season.
The average score was MIAMI 96.8, OPPONENT 95.9 - (Rating = 1*)
MIAMI is 2-12 ATS (-11.2 Units) in home games after 2 or more consecutive wins this season.
The average score was MIAMI 104.4, OPPONENT 102.4 - (Rating = 2*)
DALLAS is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) off a road loss by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was DALLAS 104.1, OPPONENT 94.4 - (Rating = 1*)
Riley is 1-11 ATS (-11.1 Units) in home games after 2 or more consecutive wins as the coach of MIAMI.
The average score was MIAMI 103.8, OPPONENT 103.0 - (Rating = 2*)
Johnson is 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) in road games after covering 3 of their last 4 against the spread as the coach of DALLAS.
The average score was DALLAS 99.7, OPPONENT 91.7 - (Rating = 2*)
The average score was DALLAS 104.1, OPPONENT 94.4 - (Rating = 1*)
Riley is 1-11 ATS (-11.1 Units) in home games after 2 or more consecutive wins as the coach of MIAMI.
The average score was MIAMI 103.8, OPPONENT 103.0 - (Rating = 2*)
Johnson is 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) in road games after covering 3 of their last 4 against the spread as the coach of DALLAS.
The average score was DALLAS 99.7, OPPONENT 91.7 - (Rating = 2*)
Most NBA observers had the Dallas Mavericks winning their first NBA Finals appearance in six games, and though Miami's surprising return to form in Games 3 and 4 remains our freshest memory of the series thus far, it bears repeating that this is exactly how many saw this thing ending. What remains is a three-game series, and the Mavs have two to play at home. On paper, everything appears to be going according to plan.
Most of these Finals follow a similar pattern: an ugly Game 1, a blowout for the home team in Game 2, an inspired comeback for the home team in Game 3, followed by a close road win in Game 4 and a backs-against-the-wall survival conquest for the home team in Game 5. And, usually, most of these Finals end in Game 6. Since the home-court format was changed to 2-3-2 for the 1985 Finals, 10 of the 21 championships have ended in six games, with five Finals finishing in five, three sweeps, and three seven-gamers.
Though the Dallas-Miami series hasn't followed the typical pattern, it is reminiscent of Chicago's six-game win over Utah in 1997. The Bulls took the first two at home, and though they needed a Michael Jordan game-winner in the first game, their 12-point win in Game 2 wasn't as close as the final score would indicate. With momentum clouding the thought process, writers and television hacks alike saw the Bulls as primed for a sweep. Instead, Utah won the next two games handily, reminding everyone that -- oh, yeah -- the Jazz were a championship-worthy team and probably couldn't be beaten by anyone (even MJ's Bulls) four straight times. Chicago then won a close won in Game 5 (it was just as hard to beat those Bulls three straight times) before closing it out at home.
(It should also be noted that in 1998, the Jazz could only muster nine points in the fourth quarter of Game 3 of the Finals against the Bulls, and then gathered themselves long enough to take Game 5 in Chicago some five days later. The Jazz were the most efficient scoring team in the NBA that year, and you can't keep a good offense down.)
So, though some are predicting gloom and doom for the Mavs in these Finals, assuming they're going to have to deal with a third straight loss in Miami on Sunday before having to win two straight in Texas to pull out the series, things actually appear to be right on course. Just as no one should have expected a team as good as the Heat to be beaten four straight times (even by a team as good as the Mavs), nobody should expect a team as good as the Mavs to be taken down three straight times (even by a team as good as the Heat). There's a reason that only one home team in 21 Finals (the 2004 Pistons, playing against a crippled and self-loathing group of Lakers) has taken the three middle games in the 2-3-2 format, and though the Mavs have their work cut out for them, history is on their side.
Most of these Finals follow a similar pattern: an ugly Game 1, a blowout for the home team in Game 2, an inspired comeback for the home team in Game 3, followed by a close road win in Game 4 and a backs-against-the-wall survival conquest for the home team in Game 5. And, usually, most of these Finals end in Game 6. Since the home-court format was changed to 2-3-2 for the 1985 Finals, 10 of the 21 championships have ended in six games, with five Finals finishing in five, three sweeps, and three seven-gamers.
Though the Dallas-Miami series hasn't followed the typical pattern, it is reminiscent of Chicago's six-game win over Utah in 1997. The Bulls took the first two at home, and though they needed a Michael Jordan game-winner in the first game, their 12-point win in Game 2 wasn't as close as the final score would indicate. With momentum clouding the thought process, writers and television hacks alike saw the Bulls as primed for a sweep. Instead, Utah won the next two games handily, reminding everyone that -- oh, yeah -- the Jazz were a championship-worthy team and probably couldn't be beaten by anyone (even MJ's Bulls) four straight times. Chicago then won a close won in Game 5 (it was just as hard to beat those Bulls three straight times) before closing it out at home.
(It should also be noted that in 1998, the Jazz could only muster nine points in the fourth quarter of Game 3 of the Finals against the Bulls, and then gathered themselves long enough to take Game 5 in Chicago some five days later. The Jazz were the most efficient scoring team in the NBA that year, and you can't keep a good offense down.)
So, though some are predicting gloom and doom for the Mavs in these Finals, assuming they're going to have to deal with a third straight loss in Miami on Sunday before having to win two straight in Texas to pull out the series, things actually appear to be right on course. Just as no one should have expected a team as good as the Heat to be beaten four straight times (even by a team as good as the Mavs), nobody should expect a team as good as the Mavs to be taken down three straight times (even by a team as good as the Heat). There's a reason that only one home team in 21 Finals (the 2004 Pistons, playing against a crippled and self-loathing group of Lakers) has taken the three middle games in the 2-3-2 format, and though the Mavs have their work cut out for them, history is on their side.
Thanx Champ - I don't get to this site often enough. My totals in baseball- 90-59 in 2005. Above 500 plays were strong last year so this year I play only 10* plays in bases and am 4-1 on these 10* totals. My only loss was a rain delay that left the pitchers cold. Glad I could be of help and yes I provide a writeup each time with trends meaningful to the occasion. Good Luck in the rest of the series.
