YTD: 86-73-3 + 11.2 units
This week (so far): 0-1-1 (-2.4 units)
Wash +3 (-110) 2 units
This line has stood out to me all week as the one that has the most value. Once TopBet had it at +3 I made my move. I don't trust the Skins, but I probably trust the Bills -- the most penalized team in the league who is basically out of the playoff picture -- even less. At home I think the Skins would have at least a 50/50 chance of winning this game. So if I am gonna get 3 points, I have to make the move.
KC -6 (-120) 4 units
I know this is a "square" play, but plenty of square plays hit, pretty much every week. It is a road fav but not a short road fav, and while KC has most of the public money, they seem to be getting less of a consensus than plays like GB or ARI. In any event, KC needs to keep winning, the Ravens will be starting either Schaub or Clausen. Baltimore is also almost as bad ATS as they are SU. They have only covered 3 of the last 13 games, and are 0-4-1 ATS at home in their last 5.
Ten/NE UNDER 47 (-110) 2 units
I live in NE and follow the Pat as close as I possibly can. People probably don't realize that their defense is arguably more impressive than their offense, at least with Edelman still out (which is now confirmed). The Pat's haven't score 30 in months. The Team Totals for this are interesting. I saw 30.5 for NE and 16.5 for Tenn. I would not be surprised if both teams go under those totals. Pro Football Focus has the Pats secondary as the best in the league and its front 7 has been dominant lately, especially Sheard. Collins is back and Hightower is questionable but expected to play. Devin McCourty as FS is a loss, but Duron Harmon is good enough to be a starter on most teams (you may recall the Pat's trusted him to play in the 4th QTR of the Superbowl).
NE is not running up the score in these games lately. Once they take a big lead they have been playing bland. They just promoted a fullback from the practice squad so to me that suggests they will want to run the ball later in the game, with Branden Bolden and James White splitting carries. I think this game will be something like 27-7 or something (which might indicate I should play the Pats, but that is a lot of chalk for a game I expect to be lower scoring than most suspect)
GB/Oak UNDER 48 (-110)- 2 units
GB has an excellent defense in terms of points allowed. Their offense has looked off all year -- not terrible, but they aren't scoring the way they did in previous years -- partially due to injuries. Oakland hasn't been scoring much lately ,which I am aware because I have bet on them quote a few times. If I could have found a first half line of 24.5 I would've pounced, but it is nowhere to be found. 4 of the last 5 GB games have gone under.
Note: I have a strong lean on Denver +7. I honestly thought the line would be 4.5 or so, maybe even 3.5. I don't love the way they look but the line is inflated for sure. But Pitt Team Total UNDER 26 (which is what I see at one book anyway) might be a play. But I am conflicted a little and also want to see what some other books have for TTs (5 Dimes hasn't published any as of now and they offer the most flexibility in terms of buying and selling points. I am interested in opinions here.
My logic is that the line is inflated and Denver is the play, but why not just bet on their defense and leave the offense out of it. 26 is one of the highest team total numbers of the week. The Pitt offense is excellent, but I will take Talib and Harris Jr to hold most teams to 26 or under. I am a little scared off by the recent box scores for Pitt though. They have scored more than 30 in each of their last 5 -- and that included two good defenses in SEA and CIN. They average 26 points ppg this year, while Denver only allows 30, but Pitt has been kind of ridiculous lately.
This week (so far): 0-1-1 (-2.4 units)
Wash +3 (-110) 2 units
This line has stood out to me all week as the one that has the most value. Once TopBet had it at +3 I made my move. I don't trust the Skins, but I probably trust the Bills -- the most penalized team in the league who is basically out of the playoff picture -- even less. At home I think the Skins would have at least a 50/50 chance of winning this game. So if I am gonna get 3 points, I have to make the move.
KC -6 (-120) 4 units
I know this is a "square" play, but plenty of square plays hit, pretty much every week. It is a road fav but not a short road fav, and while KC has most of the public money, they seem to be getting less of a consensus than plays like GB or ARI. In any event, KC needs to keep winning, the Ravens will be starting either Schaub or Clausen. Baltimore is also almost as bad ATS as they are SU. They have only covered 3 of the last 13 games, and are 0-4-1 ATS at home in their last 5.
Ten/NE UNDER 47 (-110) 2 units
I live in NE and follow the Pat as close as I possibly can. People probably don't realize that their defense is arguably more impressive than their offense, at least with Edelman still out (which is now confirmed). The Pat's haven't score 30 in months. The Team Totals for this are interesting. I saw 30.5 for NE and 16.5 for Tenn. I would not be surprised if both teams go under those totals. Pro Football Focus has the Pats secondary as the best in the league and its front 7 has been dominant lately, especially Sheard. Collins is back and Hightower is questionable but expected to play. Devin McCourty as FS is a loss, but Duron Harmon is good enough to be a starter on most teams (you may recall the Pat's trusted him to play in the 4th QTR of the Superbowl).
NE is not running up the score in these games lately. Once they take a big lead they have been playing bland. They just promoted a fullback from the practice squad so to me that suggests they will want to run the ball later in the game, with Branden Bolden and James White splitting carries. I think this game will be something like 27-7 or something (which might indicate I should play the Pats, but that is a lot of chalk for a game I expect to be lower scoring than most suspect)
GB/Oak UNDER 48 (-110)- 2 units
GB has an excellent defense in terms of points allowed. Their offense has looked off all year -- not terrible, but they aren't scoring the way they did in previous years -- partially due to injuries. Oakland hasn't been scoring much lately ,which I am aware because I have bet on them quote a few times. If I could have found a first half line of 24.5 I would've pounced, but it is nowhere to be found. 4 of the last 5 GB games have gone under.
Note: I have a strong lean on Denver +7. I honestly thought the line would be 4.5 or so, maybe even 3.5. I don't love the way they look but the line is inflated for sure. But Pitt Team Total UNDER 26 (which is what I see at one book anyway) might be a play. But I am conflicted a little and also want to see what some other books have for TTs (5 Dimes hasn't published any as of now and they offer the most flexibility in terms of buying and selling points. I am interested in opinions here.
My logic is that the line is inflated and Denver is the play, but why not just bet on their defense and leave the offense out of it. 26 is one of the highest team total numbers of the week. The Pitt offense is excellent, but I will take Talib and Harris Jr to hold most teams to 26 or under. I am a little scared off by the recent box scores for Pitt though. They have scored more than 30 in each of their last 5 -- and that included two good defenses in SEA and CIN. They average 26 points ppg this year, while Denver only allows 30, but Pitt has been kind of ridiculous lately.
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. On the flip side, the GB total is now down a whole point. I am still trying to decide on the Pitt Team Total
