YTD: 93-78-3 + 17.3 units
Washington did well by me last night covering (2 units) and holding the Eagles UNDER 25, giving me a 2-0 + 5 unit night. That makes up for a shitty 0-2 Thursday where I lost over 4 units.
NE -2.5 (-115) 2 units
I am with the squares on this one. The Pats are 8-1 SU in their last 9 road games and with a spread like this, that matters almost as much as ATS. The Pats need this game so they can clinch homefield and rest starters next week vs MIA. The Jets have been winning, but against some cupcakes like Dallas, Tenn, Miami and the Giants (their last 4 wins). Everyone cites the Pats injuries, which are considerable, but even with the injuries they have only lost 2 games. And even in those 2 games it took minor miracles to win (3 non offensive tds by Philly, and a slew of crazy calls vs Denver. I know the Jets play them tough. Last time these teams played the line fell to -6.5 by Sunday morning and the Pats won by 7.
Also the Pats defense has been excellent with their (now Pro Bowler) CB Malcolm Butler. I think this game will be something like 24-13.
Pitt -9.5 (-120) 4 units
Also with the squares on this one. I bet hard against B-more last week as a home dog and didn’t have to sweat it too much. Pitt is playing as well as anyone in the league and hate the Ravens enough to want this one big. Baltimore has covered 3 times in their last 14 games, while Pitt has covered 5 of 6 – scoring at least 30 points in every one of those games. I think this game will be something like 31-13.
Dallas + 7 (-120) 1 unit
The Bills are just overvalued by the books. I felt that way last week when they were road favs vs Wash, and I see it here again. Their season is over and the team is not well coached, getting penalties constantly. They have only covered (or won SU) in 1 of their last 5. Dallas is not good but they are fighting – as we saw last week when they played the Jets to a push. I will guess Buffalo 17-16.
ATL + 7 (-115) 1 unit
Man, the Panthers have killed me when I doubt them this year, and I just lost two weeks ago when I took ATL as 9-point road dogs. I just have a hunch that 16-0 will be tougher than it looks and the mystery isn’t dead. I will guess Carolina, 27-23, with Cam needing some 4th Qtr magic to keep the undefeated season alive.
STL/SEA OVER 40 2 units
STL has a terrible scoring offense – ranked 32nd last time I checked (a week ago). I bet them with a TT UNDER last week and watched their offense kill that bet. They are looking better with Austin getting more involved. Meanwhile, the Seahawks offense has just been dominant. I think SEA can be can be counted on to do most of the heavy lifting here, but STL can score 13 or 14 points to help.
Washington did well by me last night covering (2 units) and holding the Eagles UNDER 25, giving me a 2-0 + 5 unit night. That makes up for a shitty 0-2 Thursday where I lost over 4 units.
NE -2.5 (-115) 2 units
I am with the squares on this one. The Pats are 8-1 SU in their last 9 road games and with a spread like this, that matters almost as much as ATS. The Pats need this game so they can clinch homefield and rest starters next week vs MIA. The Jets have been winning, but against some cupcakes like Dallas, Tenn, Miami and the Giants (their last 4 wins). Everyone cites the Pats injuries, which are considerable, but even with the injuries they have only lost 2 games. And even in those 2 games it took minor miracles to win (3 non offensive tds by Philly, and a slew of crazy calls vs Denver. I know the Jets play them tough. Last time these teams played the line fell to -6.5 by Sunday morning and the Pats won by 7.
Also the Pats defense has been excellent with their (now Pro Bowler) CB Malcolm Butler. I think this game will be something like 24-13.
Pitt -9.5 (-120) 4 units
Also with the squares on this one. I bet hard against B-more last week as a home dog and didn’t have to sweat it too much. Pitt is playing as well as anyone in the league and hate the Ravens enough to want this one big. Baltimore has covered 3 times in their last 14 games, while Pitt has covered 5 of 6 – scoring at least 30 points in every one of those games. I think this game will be something like 31-13.
Dallas + 7 (-120) 1 unit
The Bills are just overvalued by the books. I felt that way last week when they were road favs vs Wash, and I see it here again. Their season is over and the team is not well coached, getting penalties constantly. They have only covered (or won SU) in 1 of their last 5. Dallas is not good but they are fighting – as we saw last week when they played the Jets to a push. I will guess Buffalo 17-16.
ATL + 7 (-115) 1 unit
Man, the Panthers have killed me when I doubt them this year, and I just lost two weeks ago when I took ATL as 9-point road dogs. I just have a hunch that 16-0 will be tougher than it looks and the mystery isn’t dead. I will guess Carolina, 27-23, with Cam needing some 4th Qtr magic to keep the undefeated season alive.
STL/SEA OVER 40 2 units
STL has a terrible scoring offense – ranked 32nd last time I checked (a week ago). I bet them with a TT UNDER last week and watched their offense kill that bet. They are looking better with Austin getting more involved. Meanwhile, the Seahawks offense has just been dominant. I think SEA can be can be counted on to do most of the heavy lifting here, but STL can score 13 or 14 points to help.
