Lots of good plays today but by far the best value on the board has to be St Louis at +152, (currently at Pinny), +154 at Matchbook, (and climbing).
I don't understand the line move. Yes Cbus plays well at home, (24-11-2), and have won 9 of their last 12 at Nationwide. It's also difficult to win both ends of a home and home and perhaps that leads to the early lean of the line.
But on the other hand St Louis has had consistent success in head to head matches. The Blues have won 8 of their last 10 versus the Jackets. (2-2 at Nationwide).
St. Louis was 14-20-3 at New Year's – dead last in the West and five points back of L.A. in 14th spot – and has gone 22-10-6 since. They're 14-5-2 in their past 20 games, 7-2-1 in their past 10. Cbus' numbers in 2009 are very similar. 22-12-4 since new year's day, 15-5-3 in their last 23, and 7-1-2 in the last 10.
But here is where the two differ. Cbus has the worst PP in the league,(12.5%). St Louis is ranked 9th with 23.2% success rate. On the kill St Louis ranks 6th in the league, while the Jackets sit 13th.
Despite structured styles and owning terrific coaching staffs both teams sit near the bottom in most PIMs at 23rd and 25th. Special teams could mean the difference in this game.
Certainly there will be more urgency for points with the Blues than Cbus.
Regardless, I see this game as a toss up. A toss up with one team getting +154? That my friends is +EV.
I don't understand the line move. Yes Cbus plays well at home, (24-11-2), and have won 9 of their last 12 at Nationwide. It's also difficult to win both ends of a home and home and perhaps that leads to the early lean of the line.
But on the other hand St Louis has had consistent success in head to head matches. The Blues have won 8 of their last 10 versus the Jackets. (2-2 at Nationwide).
St. Louis was 14-20-3 at New Year's – dead last in the West and five points back of L.A. in 14th spot – and has gone 22-10-6 since. They're 14-5-2 in their past 20 games, 7-2-1 in their past 10. Cbus' numbers in 2009 are very similar. 22-12-4 since new year's day, 15-5-3 in their last 23, and 7-1-2 in the last 10.
But here is where the two differ. Cbus has the worst PP in the league,(12.5%). St Louis is ranked 9th with 23.2% success rate. On the kill St Louis ranks 6th in the league, while the Jackets sit 13th.
Despite structured styles and owning terrific coaching staffs both teams sit near the bottom in most PIMs at 23rd and 25th. Special teams could mean the difference in this game.
Certainly there will be more urgency for points with the Blues than Cbus.
Regardless, I see this game as a toss up. A toss up with one team getting +154? That my friends is +EV.
Another category I would put in St Louis' pocket.
Steve Mason gets all the pub with his 10 shutouts but the fact is half of those occurred in 2008. Since 1/1/09 Steve has started 33 games. He has allowed 3 or more goals 18 times.
You want a stat to think about? Chris Mason has allowed one goal or less in 15 of his last 30 games.
Since 1/21 he has 5 shutouts, 10 one goal games, and has allowed more than 2 goals only 10 times.
