Sunday 9/20/15 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Post your request, Comments or concerns here.
Good luck on all your plays.

When not viewing the service plays.
Make sure to enjoy the rest of what the RX has to offer.

First time here at the RX.
Make sure to visit the Newbies Room
Click here to go there now

 

[superbeets]

Spanish La Liga TODAY 11:00

Seville

v

Celta Vigo

	HOME	DRAW	AWAY
SS3		4/5	11/4	10/3	More markets

​

RECENT FORM	LAST HEAD-TO-HEADSAT SEVILLE	RECENT FORM
AWND*ADHLADHW​ Most recent​	1 - 0 0 - 1 4 - 1 2 - 0	HDADHWAWHWHD​ Most recent​

KEY STAT: Seville lost just once at home last term

EXPERT VERDICT: Seville’s ordinary start to the season took a turn for the better when they easily beat Borussia Monchengladbach 3-0 in the Champions League on Tuesday and with ample time to recover between games they can see off Celta Vigo. Celta have started well and are unbeaten but are yet to meet a team of Seville’s pedigree.

RECOMMENDATION: Seville
2

 

[superbeets]

League One TODAY 12:00

Bradford

v

Sheff Utd

	HOME	DRAW	AWAY
SS5		8/5	5/2	9/5	More markets

​

RECENT FORM	LAST HEAD-TO-HEADSAT BRADFORD	RECENT FORM
HDHLADHWAWAD​ Most recent​	0 - 2 2 - 0 1 - 2 0 - 5	HWALAWAD*HLHL​ Most recent​

KEY STAT: Sheff Utd have won one of the last four meetings

EXPERT VERDICT: Bradford have made themselves hard to break down, going unbeaten for four games following a rocky start to their League One campaign but they are finding wins hard to come by. Sheffield United have suffered successive defeats and may go back to basics in search of a point.

RECOMMENDATION: Draw
1


REFEREE: Neil Swarbrick STADIUM:

 

[superbeets]

Italian Serie A TODAY 11:30

Chievo

v

Inter

	HOME	DRAW	AWAY
BTEU		11/4	23/10	11/10	More markets

​

RECENT FORM	LAST HEAD-TO-HEADSAT CHIEVO	RECENT FORM
HDALHD*AWHWAD​ Most recent​	0 - 2 2 - 1 0 - 2 0 - 2	HLALHWHWAWHW​ Most recent​

KEY STAT: Inter are the only side in Italy to have made a perfect start

EXPERT VERDICT: Roberto Mancini’s revolution seems to be taking shape at Inter with his new signings helping the club to have won all three Serie A matches. Chievo have also started well with seven points from a possible nine, but they have also been lucky with their eight-goal tally coming from only 11 shots on target.

RECOMMENDATION: Inter
1

 

[superbeets]

French Ligue 1 TODAY 13:00

Bordeaux

v

Toulouse

	HOME	DRAW	AWAY
BT2		11/10	21/10	3	More markets

RECENT FORM	LAST HEAD-TO-HEADSAT BORDEAUX	RECENT FORM
HWADALHWADHD​ Most recent​	2 - 1 2 - 1 0 - 1 1 - 0	HLHWALHDALHD​ Most recent​

KEY STAT: Toulouse have lost all but one away game in 2015

EXPERT VERDICT: Bordeaux look good value to win against a Toulouse team who have a terrible away record. Willy Sagnol’s side are strong at home and have picked up creditable draws with both PSG and Liverpool in their last two games. Providing they are over their Europa League exertions they should be able to win comfortably.

RECOMMENDATION: Bordeaux
2

 

[superbeets]

Premier League TODAY 13:30

Tottenham

v

C Palace

	HOME	DRAW	AWAY
SS1		Evs	13/5	3	More markets

​

RECENT FORM	LAST HEAD-TO-HEADSAT TOTTENHAM	RECENT FORM
ALHDADHDAWHW​ Most recent​	0 - 0 2 - 0 1 - 1 3 - 0	AWHLHWHD*AWHL​ Most recent​

KEY STAT: Palace have won seven of their last ten league away matches

EXPERT VERDICT: Tottenham have failed to really fire this season and they could be vulnerable against in-form Crystal Palace. Despite their much lauded home support, Alan Pardew’s Palace side often look a better away from Selhurst Park when they can use their pace on the break.

RECOMMENDATION: Crystal Palace
2


REFEREE: Michael Oliver STADIUM:

 

[superbeets]

Dutch Eredivisie TODAY 13:30

Excelsior

v

Ajax

	HOME	DRAW	AWAY
		5	15/4	4/9	More markets

​

RECENT FORM	LAST HEAD-TO-HEADSAT EXCELSIOR	RECENT FORM
HLALHDALHWAL​ Most recent​	0 - 2 1 - 4 2 - 2 2 - 1	HWAWADHWADHD​ Most recent​

KEY STAT: Ajax have kept four clean sheets in five Eredivisie matches

EXPERT VERDICT: Ajax have made a strong start to their league campaign - winning four out of five matches in the Eredivisie - and they are expected to crush Excelsior, whose solitary victory came against bottom club De Graafschap. Expect a routine win to nil.

RECOMMENDATION: Ajax to win 2-0
1

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

MLB

National League
Cardinals @ Cubs
Martinez is 0-0, 2.77 in his last two starts (over 3-1-2 in last six).

Lester is 2-0, 1.71 in his last three starts (under 3-1-1 last five).

St Louis lost six of last eight games with Chicago (over 7-0-1); Cardinals won four of last six overall (over 5-1). Cubs won last five games; seven of their last nine games went over the total.

Marlins @ Nationals
Nicolino is 1-2, 3.48 in his last five starts (under 3-1-1).

Strasburg is 3-1, 2.78 in his last five starts (over 3-1 last four).

Washington is 7-4 in its last eleven games with Miami (under 4-2 in last six). Marlins won seven of their last 11 games (under 9-5 in last 14). Nationals won six of last seven games overall (over 4-2 in last six).

Phillies @ Braves
Nola is 1-1, 6.75 in his last three starts (over 7-2-1 last ten).

Teheran is 1-0, 193 in his last three starts (under 2-0-1).

Philly lost five of last six games with Atlanta; under is 3-0-1 in last four series games. Phils lost last five games; five of last eight games went over total. Braves lost six of their last nine games (under 4-1 last five).

Reds @ Brewers
DeSclafani is 2-1, 2.08 in his last four starts (under 8-1 last nine).

Pena is 0-0, 2.70 in his first two MLB starts (under 2-0).

Reds won last three games with the Brewers; five of last seven in series went over total. Cincinnati won three of its last four games (over 5-1). Milwaukee lost last eight games, allowing 51 runs (over 7-2 last nine).

Padres @ Rockies
Shields is 3-0, 3.24 in his last four starts; his last nine starts all went over.

Kendrick is 2-0, 3.86 in his last three starts (under 6-2 last eight).

San Diego lost five of last seven games with Colorado; over is 7-3 in last ten series games. Padres lost seven of last nine games (over 7-1 in last eight). Rockies are 5-3 in last eight games (under 5-3 last eight).

Pirates @ Dodgers
UCLA alum Cole is 1-1, 4.67 in his last three starts (over 3-0).

Bolsinger is 2-0, 3.92 in his last four starts (over 4-1 last five).

Pirates won nine of last 12 games with LA (over 7-3 in last ten); Bucs lost four of last five games overall; nine of their last 12 went over. Dodgers won five of last seven games; four of their last six stayed under.

Diamondbacks @ Giants
Hellickson is 2-3, 7.25 in his last five starts (over 4-1).

Hudson is 1-0, 1.80 in his last two starts (under 3-1).

Arizona won four of last five games with San Francisco (under 10-2 in last 12). Diamondbacks lost four of last sseven games overall (under 7-4 last eleven). Giants won five of last eight games (over 6-2).

American League
Royals @ Tigers
Medlen is 1-0, 1.46 in his last two starts (under 2-0).

Simon is 2-0, 3.60 in his last three starts (over 3-1-1 in his last five).

Royals lost four of last six games with Detroit (over 6-0); KC is 3-7 in last ten games overall (over 7-2 last nine). Tigers won five of last six games (over is 5-1-1 in last seven games).

Red Sox @ Blue Jays
Hill blanked Tampa Bay for seven innings (109 PT) in his first '15 start.

Buehrle is 1-1, 6.20 in his last four starts (over 8-2 last ten).

Boston won six of last nine games with Toronto (over 5-2 last seven). BoSox lost three of last five games (over 6-3 last nine). Blue Jays won six of last nine; four of their last six games stayed under the total.

Orioles @ Rays
Gausman is 1-0, 0.82 in his last two starts (under 4-1 last five).

Odorizzi is 2-0, 2.25 in his last two starts (over 5-3 last eight).

Rays lost five of last eight games with Baltimore; four of last six series games went over the total; Tampa Bay lost 11 of last 16 games; under is 5-2 in last seven. Orioles won five of last seven games; six of their last nine went over the total.

White Sox @ Indians
Danks is 1-1, 2.45 in his last three starts (over 4-1 last five).

Tomlin is 5-1, 2.68 in his last six starts (over 4-1 last five).

White Sox lost three of last five games with Cleveland (over 3-1 last four). Chicago is 4-6 in last ten games overall (over 7-3-1 last 11). Indians won six of last ten; over is 8-3 in their last eleven games.

Mariners @ Rangers
Hernandez is 3-1, 2.61 in his last four starts (over 4-1-1 last six).

Holland is 0-1, 7.11 in his last two starts (over 3-1 last four).

Seattle won three of last four games with Texas; under is 7-2-1 last ten series games. Mariners are 6-4 in last ten games (under 6-3-1). Texas won six of last seven games (over 5-1-1) overall.

Angels @ Twins
Shoemaker is 2-0, 0.63 in his last two starts (under 5-2-2 last nine).

Duffey is 3-0, 2.45 in his last six starts (over 4-1 last five).

Angels won 12 of last 13 games with Minnesota; over is 7-3-2 in last 12 series games; Halos won four of last five games overall- under is 7-2-1 in their last ten. Twins lost six of last eight games; under is 6-3-2 in their last 11 games.

A's @ Astros
Brooks is 1-2, 12.41 in his last three starts (over 5-1 last six).

McHugh is 3-0, 4.70 in his last four starts (over 3-0-1); Astros scored 30 runs in the four games

Oakland won six of last eight games with Houston (under 4-2 last six). A's are 4-6 in last ten games overall (over 5-2 last seven). Houston lost nine of last twelve games, with four of last five going over.

Interleague
Bronx @ Mets
Sabathia is 0-1, 3.71 in his last five starts (under 5-1 last six).

Harvey has an 8.49 RA in his last two starts (over 7-2 last nine). Mets won six of his last eight starts.

Bronx won five of last seven games with the Mets (over 4-4-1 last nine). Bronx won four of last six games overall (under 5-1). Mets lost three of last four games (four of last five stayed under).

Win-loss records this year for team with this starting pitcher:
StL-Chi-- Martinez 21-6; Lester 16-13
Mia-Wsh-- Nicolino 4-5; Strasburg 11-9 (8-2 last 10)
Phil-Atl-- Nola 7-4; Teheran 17-13
Cin-Mil-- DeSclafani 13-15; Pena 0-2
SD-Col-- Shields 15-16; Kendrick 8-16
Pitt-LA-- Cole 20-9; Bolsinger 11-7 (4-0 last four)
Az-SF-- Hellickson 11-13; Hudson 10-9

KC-Det-- Medlen 3-2; Simon 16-12
Bos-Tor-- Hill 1-0; Buehrle 16-12
Balt-TB-- Gausman 6-8 (3-0 last 3); Odorizzi 12-13
Chi-Clev-- Danks 13-14; Tomlin 4-2
Sea-Tex-- Hernandez 19-10; Holland 4-3
LA-Minn-- Shoemaker 11-12; Duffey 5-2
A's-Hst-- Brooks 3-4; McHugh 18-11

NY-NY-- Sabathia 12-14; Harvey 16-10

Times this starting pitcher allowed a run in first inning:
StL-Chi-- Martinez 7-27; Lester 8-30
Mia-Wsh-- Nicolino 0-9; Strasburg 5-20
Phil-Atl-- Nola 4-11; Teheran 10-30
Cin-Mil-- DeSclafani 7-28; Pena 0-2
SD-Col-- Shields 10-31; Kendrick 13-24
Pitt-LA-- Cole 10-29; Bolsinger 5-18
Az-SF-- Hellickson 9-24; Hudson 5-19

KC-Det-- Medlen 2-5; Simon 5-28
Bos-Tor-- Hill 0-1; Buehrle 14-28
Balt-TB-- Gausman 5-14; Odorizzi 6-25
Chi-Clev-- Danks 8-27; Tomlin 1-6
Sea-Tex-- Hernandez 8-29; Holland 3-7
LA-Minn-- Shoemaker 6-23; Duffey 1-7
A's-Hst-- Brooks 3-7; McHugh 9-29

NY-NY-- Sabathia 9-26; Harvey 7-26

Umpires
StL-Chi-- Home side won seven of last nine Marquez games.
Mia-Wsh-- Three of last four Hamari games went over.
Az-SF-- Underdogs won four of last five Kulpa games.
Cin-Mil-- Five of last six Fagan games went over total.
Phil-Atl-- Last four Joyce games stayed under the total.
SD-Col-- 11 of last 14 Morales games went over total.
Pitt-LA-- Underdogs won four of last six Fletcher games.

Bos-Tor-- Underdogs are 6-5 in last eleven Foster games.
Balt-TB-- Under is 10-5 in last fifteen Bucknor games.
KC-Det-- Seven of last nine Wolcott games went over.
LA-Min-- Favorites won five of last seven Johnson games.
A's-Hst-- Under is 11-6 in last seventeen Muchlinski games.
Chi-Cle-- Seven of last ten Tichenor games went over total.
Sea-Tex-- Under is 7-3-1 in last eleven May games.

NY-NY-- Eight of last eleven Dias games went over total

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Rob Veno

Houston/Carolina Under 40

The Texans were ambushed in the first half of their home opener by Kansas City last Sunday as the Chiefs scored on five consecutive possessions resulting in 27 points. In that mix were a pair of Houston turnovers (1 interception, 1 fumble) which set the Chiefs up in point blank range at the Texans’ 13- and 7-yard lines. Those turnovers cost Houston 14 points and in all, three of KC’s five scoring drives were 22 yards or less.

Houston’s second half performance was much cleaner on both sides of the ball as the offense did not commit a turnover and the defense pitched a shutout forcing four punts on Kansas City’s five possessions. The rally fell short but the Texans did get the once blowout to the point where Kansas City had to recover an onside kick to secure the 27-20 victory. Not really that bad for a game when you consider Houston’s average starting position was their own 19 while the Chiefs’ was their own 40.

Carolina’s defense also recorded a second half shutout last week as they held Jacksonville to 75 total yards, had four sacks, and picked off two passes --- one of which was returned for a TD by corner Josh Norman. That defensive surge turned the Panthers’ slim 10-9 halftime lead into and easy 20-9 win and pointspread cover. The defense also masked the deficiencies of the offense which could only muster 263 total yards, 3.9 yards per play, and 13 points.

The fundamental matchups here obviously give significant advantages to each defense. For Houston’s defense, this week is a step down in class as far as their opponent’s offensive explosiveness is concerned. Carolina is dependent upon establishing the run in order to create any semblance of a passing game but their unique rushing attack which features the read option gives the Texans an added dimension to defend.

Last week, Cam Newton was the Panthers’ second leading rusher with 14 carries for 35 yards. Houston can be vulnerable in the deep secondary and Carolina’s Ted Ginn averaged 27 yards per catch on his two receptions last week. Also note the strong game Kansas City tight end Travis Kelce had against Houston last week (6 catches, 106 yards, 2 TDs) simply because the Panthers’ best receiving threat is arguably TE Greg Olson.

On the other side, Houston’s ground game is average at best with RB Alfred Blue this season’s starter in place of injured star Arian Foster. Carolina’s run defense is a brick wall so don’t expect the Texans to find much room on the ground. Houston did some damage through the air against a solid KC secondary last week as Brian Hoyer and Ryan Mallett combined to go 26-of-47, for 334 yards, 2 TDs, and 1 INT. There is a question as to who will start this game as Houston has a full-fledged QB controversy on their hands after Mallett’s relief performance against the Chiefs.

As of mid-week, we still don’t know the playing status of Panthers all-everything MLB Luke Kuechly who is still undergoing concussion protocol after exiting last week’s game. He’s an obvious difference maker so keep tabs on his availability. With or without Kuechly in the lineup, this game still shapes up as a defensive slugfest with the winner likely scoring no more than 20 points. With the total sitting at 40.5, we’ll make a play on the under.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

SUNDAY, SEPT. 20

HOUSTON at CAROLINA (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)

Houston 5-2 vs. spread mark LY for O'Brien after loss. Carolina has not covered second game on schedule in past four years. Panthers "under" 13-4 last 17 at home.
Tech Trend: "Under" and Texans, based on team trends.

NFL Mathcups NFL Mathcups
TAMPA BAY at NEW ORLEANS (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)

Saints lost SU and failed to cover last five at home in 2014, a departure from previous Superdome spread form under Sean Payton. Saints have won last four SU at home vs. Bucs and 3-1 vs. line in those. Payton 4-10 as chalk in 2014 and failed to cover both vs. Lovie.
Tech Trend: Slight to Bucs, based on recent Saints woes.

NFL Mathcups NFL Mathcups
SAN FRANCISCO at PITTSBURGH (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)

After departing from an extended "over" trend at home during 2012-13, the "over" at Heinz Field roared back to a 6-2 mark LY. Niners, however, "under" 5-11 in 2014. Off SU loss, Tomlin 4-1 vs. line LY.
Tech Trend: Slight to "over," based on Steelers' extended home "totals" trends.

NFL Mathcups NFL Mathcups
DETROIT at MINNESOTA (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)

Zimmer 10-6 vs. line LY and Vikes on 15-7 spread run last 22 since late 2013 (prior to SF). Vikes also "under" 11-6 last 17 since late 2013. Lions only 2-7 vs. line away in reg. season for Caldwell, now 8-20-1 last 28 away reg season.
Tech Trend: Vikings and "under," based on team and "totals" trends.

NFL Mathcups NFL Mathcups
NEW ENGLAND at BUFFALO (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)

Bills have only beaten Pats SU three times in last 23 games, but did win regular season finale LY and have covered 3 of last 5 in series. "Overs" 7-3 last 10 meetings. Pats "over" 28-12 on road in reg. season since 2010. But Rex Ryan has covered last four and five of last six vs. Belichick. Bill just 2-7 vs. spread last nine as visiting chalk.
Tech Trend: Bills and "over," based on team and "totals" trends.

NFL Mathcups NFL Mathcups
ARIZONA at CHICAGO (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)

Arians is 11-5 vs. line on road in reg season with Big Red, counting interim with Colts in 2012 he's 15-6 vs. spread last 21 away in reg season. Fox had a 16-8 reg season spread mark as host with Denver past three years, though Bears only 5-16-2 vs. spread last 23 at Soldier Field.
Tech Trend: Cards, based on team trends.

NFL Mathcups NFL Mathcups
TENNESSEE at CLEVELAND (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)

Browns 3-6 as chalk past two seasons and now on 1-7 spread skid. Also "under" 40-24-1 since 2011.
Tech Trend: "Under" and slight to Titans, based on "totals" and team trends.

NFL Mathcups NFL Mathcups
SAN DIEGO at CINCINNATI (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)

With exception of 6-0 mark in role in 2013, Cincy has been subpar as home chalk for most of the Marvin Lewis era. Bolts 12-6-1 as road dog since 2012.
Tech Trend: Chargers, based on team trends.

NFL Mathcups NFL Mathcups
ST. LOUIS at WASHINGTON (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Rams just 5-11 vs. line away past two seasons after Fisher was 7-1 in mark in role in 2012. But Rams did win 24-0 at FedEx LY. Skins on 7-18 spread run, 10-24 last 34 on board since late 2012.
Tech Trend: Rams, based on Redskins woes.

NFL Mathcups NFL Mathcups
ATLANTA at N.Y. GIANTS (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Eli 7-4 as home chalk the past two years. Falcs entered 2015 on 4-10 spread skid last 14 as true visitor.
Tech Trend: Slight to Giants, based on team trends.

NFL Mathcups NFL Mathcups

BALTIMORE at OAKLAND (CBS, 4:05 p.m. ET)
Raiders "over" 7-2 at home since LY, Ravens "over" 8-4 last 12 away.
Tech Trend: "Over," based on recent "totals" trends.

NFL Mathcups NFL Mathcups

MIAMI at JACKSONVILLE (CBS, 4:05 p.m. ET)
Philbin just 8-13 as chalk the past three seasons, also "under" 8-4 last 12 away. Gus Bradley 3-12-1 as home dog since 2013, Jags 8-24-1 as home dog since 2010. Also "under" 22-12 last 34 at home since late 2010.
Tech Trend: "Under" and slight to Dolphins, based on "totals" and team trends.

NFL Mathcups NFL Mathcups

DALLAS at PHILADELPHIA (FOX, 4:25 p.m. ET)

Cowboys have won and covered last three at Philly. Jerry Jones 11-4 as road dog past three seasons (4-0 LY) and covered 8 of 9 away from Arlington LY. Cowboys also "over" 11-2 last 13 as reg season visitor. Chip "over" 6-2 at home LY.

Tech Trend: "Over" and Cowboys, based on "totals" and team trends.

NFL Mathcups NFL Mathcups

SEATTLE at GREEN BAY (NBC, 8:30 p.m. ET)
Pete Carroll 9-2-1 as dog since 2012 (7-1-1 of that coming in 2012). Pack however 6-2-1 as home chalk LY. Last three meetings at Seattle all won SU by Seahawks including 2012 controversy and 2014 NFC title. Pack "over" 8-1 last nine reg. season at Lambeau Field.
Tech Trend: "Over" and slight to Seahawks, based on "totals" and team trends.

MONDAY, SEPT. 21

NFL Mathcups NFL Mathcups

N.Y. JETS at INDIANAPOLIS (ESPN, 8:30 p.m. ET)
Colts 29-18-2 vs. spread in reg. season since Luck (and Pagano) arrived in 2012. Also 8-2-1 last 11 as Lucas Oil Stadium chalk and 8-1-1 vs. line since 2013 off SU loss. Jets slumped as road dog in Rexy's final years, just 9-15-1 last 25 reg. season in role.
Tech Trend: Colts, based on team trends.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Sleepyj

276 CINCY -3.0 (-120)

Analysis: Let's go with last weeks premium winner here...Cincinnati looked very good last week...Most thought the Raiders might show up in that game...I doubted they would even compare to this Bengals team..For the record i will say i have the Bengals making it very deep into the playoffs and a shot a SB bid...I'm very high on this team this year...I believe they deserve it as well...I have a few strong connections with this team and the overall mood is very good...Strong believers right now with the Bengals..Before the season they had high hopes and the confidence was rather high..Bengals took care of business last week in Oakland..They had a 33-0 lead at one point and the Raiders looked lost...I do believe the Chargers are much better and won't self destruct here like the Raiders did last week...Begals have the weapons though..They are stacked on offense and can look at 6 or 7 different guys on the offensive side of the ball....I can say the same for maybe 4 or 5 other teams in the entire league....Chargers will make the long trip and they will be welcomed into the jungle here for sure...A west coast trip for the Chargers heading east is usually a bad thing for the Chargers....San Diego got it rolling last week, but most of it was pure momentum swings IMO..Two key turnovers for Detroit really helped the rally out for the Chargers..Rivers threw the ball for 404 yards..He won't do that this week..Running game for SD was limited and i think they might need to establish that this week...Chargers have another road game next week as well...Bengals got a road game in division @ Balt..Then KC and then Sea...So it's one game at a time here for the Bengals...They should be fine though IMO...This team is deep on both sides and they come into this game healthy..No serious injuries for either squad..Bengals come back home to open up the season and they bring the home crowd a 1-0 team off a blowout winner..This place will be rocking here today...Dalton looked very crisp and he used the entire play book and all his guys...That is huge for a guy like Dalton and this offense..They can roll on any team in the league...They let off the gas in the late 3rd qtr last week..They could have pitched a shutout and scored 45 pts if they wanted too..SD will need to grab turnovers and really get the Bengals off balance..I just dont see it here...Grab the 3 and lay the extra juice here...Cincy should roll by a few scores here..31-17 area IMO....I'm not sold on the Chargers O-Line this week..DJ Fluker is out and King Dunlap is a scary choice at LT...He will draw pressure for Atkins Johnson and the LB core....I don't see Rivers getting very comfortable in this game..The blitz is on..Bengals roar at home to open up the home schedule.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach

1* Free Pick on New Orleans Saints (-) vs Tampa Bay @ 1 ET Sunday

Anytime you see a line up into double digits in the NFL it is wise to 'proceed with caution'. In this case, the line is not only justified, it may prove to be far too small. The Saints are fired up after their road loss at Arizona that was much closer than the final score would lead you to believe. New Orleans and the Cardinals were nearly equal in yardage. Unlike the Saints, the Buccaneers were nowehere close to being competitive last week as they got mauled by a 42 to 14 final score. Keep in mind that was against a Tennessee team that was 2-14 last year. Now the Bucs will have an added challenge as they go on the road and rookie QB Jameis Winston makes his first ever NFL road start in a very tough place to play. The Superdome will be jumping for the Saints home opener and the crowd noise as well as simply the nerves of a road opener (and also not having a good supporting cast around him) will all add up to this one getting ugly in a hurry for Winston. The last four meetings between these teams in New Orleans have seen the Saints outscore the Buccaneers by a combined 84 points! New Orleans is on a long-term 25-13 ATS run when they are off of a loss. They'll be fired up here and Winston will throw a few more ugly "picks" just like he did last week which will add to the blowout margin. The line is big but it's absolutely justified as this is a mismatch across the board.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Spartan

DALLAS+ 5.5

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

ROBERT FERRIGNO

San Francisco / Pittsburgh Over 44.5

With this play I just have to wonder: what the hell is it going to take for the 49ers to go 'over' a total? Including the preseason and the postseason, the 49ers are now just 6-22 against the total over the last three seasons. But it is kind of inexplicable, as evidenced by Monday Night Football. The 49ers and Vikings combined for 650 total yards but just 23 points, blowing a ton of scoring opportunities along the way. This stuff simply can't continue. It was the same for the Steelers in their Thursday night game. There's no way that game should've stayed 'under', but it did thanks to missed field goals and opportunities. The Steelers are a little desperate here as they know they can't afford to fall to 0-2. Their defense still stinks, and they will once again lean on their powerful offense to lead the way. The 'over' is 7-2 in Pittsburgh's last nine games after a loss, and the 'over' is 9-3 in their last 12 home games.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

STRIKE POINT SPORTS

Tennessee +2

What did the Cleveland Browns do to prove that they should be favored in this game? Vegas knows that this is a light line, or they would have made the Browns the typical three-point favorite at home. Tennessee looked solid against a Tampa Bay team that should have been a bit better than they were in Week 1. I do not think that Mariota will throw for another four touchdowns, but he will play solid again versus a Browns defense that has a few holes. There was a lot of buzz around the Browns at the beginning of the season as far as a sleeper team, but they are still a few years away from that. The Titans are going to win this game outright and be a surprising 2-0 heading in to Week 3. The road team is the play here as they are 6-2-1 ATS in the last nine meetings between the two teams. Even better is the fact that the Titans are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings between the two squads in Cleveland. Take the points here, but they won't be necessary. Tennessee wins 27-20.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

INDIAN COWBOY

Dallas / Philadelphia Under 55.5

The public fade in the NFL is real. Especially on totals. We like the fact the Eagles come off a loss to the Falcons and will be highly motivated and with the public likely to pound the over here on what they believe to be two highly competent offenses, we like the Under naturally. The Cowboys defense played poorly against the Giants, and we expect them to bounce-back here and with the Cowboys offense banged up, plus an Eagles defense that will be highly motivated look for these two division rivals to play the Under. Note, the Under is 6-2 for the Eagles when they face a team with a winning record, and the last three of four in this contest have gone under the posted total as well.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

KING CREOLE

Bucs / Saints Under 47.5

We'll be Going LOW in one of Sunday's divisional matchups, as two teams who lost last week duke it out in the Big Easy. The fact that both teams lost in Week One actually plays a BIG part in our call on a lower-than-anticipated final score. Combine those results with the divisional aspect of this game, and we start out with: 0-12 O/U since 1986: All GAME TWO division home favorites with an OU line of 41 > points when BOTH teams (Saints / Bucs) are off a SUATS Week One loss.

At last look, the host Saints are the BIGGEST favorite on the Week Two schedule (-10 to -10.5 pts). That's another good sign for a low-scoring game.... 0-9 O/U since 2008: All GAME TWO big home favorites of 8 or more points (Saints).

Our final query in relation to Game Two's has to do with the revenge angle for the visiting Bucs (New Orleans won 23-20 in the last game of the season LY)... 2-12 O/U since 2003 / 0-5 O/U last 3 years: All GAME TWO division road teams playing with REVENGE (Bucs) when the OU line is > 43 points.

We are well aware that Tampa Bay allowed a whopping 42 points to the Tennessee Titans last week. Don't let that scare you off.That's because: In the last four seasons, all DIVISIONAL teams who allowed 42 > points at HOME in their previous game (Bucs) have gone a PERFECT 0-6 O/U in their next game.

The final score in Tampa's ugly Week One loss to Tennessee was 42 to 14.... LAST Season, NFL teams off a SU home loss of 28 > points (Bucs) went a PERFECT 0-7 O/U in their next game... with an average of only 36.0 combined points per game.

So Tampa allowed 42 points last week and New Orleans allowed 31 points. Based on those results, an Over / Under novice might want to go OVER in the next game. But we are all OU 'Pros'... not 'Joes'! And besides, since 2000, NFL home favs of > 3 points have gone 4-18-1 O/U when both teams (Saints + Bucs) allowed 31 > points last game and the OU line is < 50 points. Last season, these games went a perfect 0-4 O/U with an average of only 26.3 combined points per game.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

SPORTS WAGERS

Houston +3 over CAROLINA

Houston was heavily faded last week and practically pulled a no show in their game against Kansas City. The Texans performance looks even worse now after the Chiefs played a sloppy game against Denver on Thursday night. Many folks had the Chiefs all over the place last week against Houston (parlays, teasers and straight up) and we can assure you that all those people are not anxious to back a Texans team that looked so poor in their season opener. Making the Texans even less appealing is that they have already switched QB’s. Nobody really wants to speculate whether Ryan Mallett’s garbage time stats last week will translate into production this week. Those who watched HBO's Hard Knocks will remember that head coach Bill O'Brien said Brian Hoyer's leash as the starter would not be short, so perhaps this quick hook is more a vote of confidence in Mallett than it is a criticism of Hoyer. If the coach likes Mallett more, so do we; at least for this week.

Carolina’s win over Jacksonville really doesn’t tell us anything, as Cam Newton’s 71.3 passer rating was good enough to get the job done but hardly impressive. What’s more, that was the least watched game of the weekend so the market may be giving Carolina a little too much credit here. In other words, Carolina won 20-9 but not many witnessed how bad they were. Carolina had a nine minute edge in time of possession against the Jags but actually was outgained in the contest by two yards. The Panthers also had a 3-1 edge in turnovers. Breaking it down, Carolina’s performance against Jacksonville was worse than Houston’s performance against Kansas City. At least the Texans had a pretty good second half and there’s a good chance of them building on that. It’s worth noting that Newton’s passing stats have remained underwhelming for the past few years. He only threw 18 touchdowns last season. He barely throws for over 200 yards a game (he threw for 158 last week). His passer rating refuses to climb out of the 80s. We’re not prepared to spot points with the Panthers just yet. They are going to have to show us a lot more than a weak win against a bad team to warrant doing so. The Panthers come in overpriced while the market prefers to stay away from the Texans. That’s usually a good time to step in.

Detroit +111 over MINNESOTA

The best part of Minnesota’s 20-3 loss to the 49ers on Monday night was that not many saw it. We did. We saw Teddy Bridge “Over Troubled” Water throw one wobbly pass after another and miss his targets by 10 feet. The greatest weakness of Minnesota’s franchise quarterback is his ability to throw a football. That’s kind of an important part of the job. Time stops when that ball is in the air. Between Adrian Peterson’s shit fits, Bridgewater’s inability to throw a football and Mike Wallace and Norv Turner being in charge, we have no idea what is so appealing about this group. Every year it’s supposed to be the turning point for this franchise but it never happens. They were supposed to go into San Fran and dismantle that rebuilding block. They didn’t. In fact, the Vikes were fortunate they didn’t lose by 34 instead of 17. Look, we don’t like to put a lot of weight on one game or one loss but A.P. had a mere 31 yards on 10 carries. Bridgewater had an average day against an average defense and Minnesota’s defense was getting torched on the ground. Operating behind a banged-up offensive line without center John Sullivan and right tackle Phil Loadholt, Bridgewater was sacked five times and posted a 19.3 passer rating against the blitz. The Vikes figure to be a bit better at home but we can’t get on board with laying points with this team right now. We don’t like Bridgewater, we don’t like A.P., we don’t like their coaches and we don’t like their defense.

We played the Lions last week in San Diego and it looked like a pretty good bet early on. The problem is that the game was four quarters. Still, Detroit built a 21-3 lead and moved very effectively on many drives. Furthermore, the Chargers are a well-coached, difficult team to play against in San Diego and Detroit was in a position to win it. The Lions are getting about the same amount of points here as they were in San Diego and that’s a bit out of whack. Detroit’s Ameer Abdullah continued to dazzle after a sensational preseason and led the league with 199 all-purpose yards in Week 1. The Lions aren’t much different than the Vikes in terms of disappointing every season but we’re confident that they have the much better overall talent here. We've noted our pessimism about Minnesota and Teddy Bridgewater in this space several times during the last 17 games and our early observations haven't changed much. The Vikes are not an outfit we want to back in competitively priced games against good teams. Detroit is actually a good team. Keep the points. Lions outright.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Joe Gavazzi

Pittsburgh Steelers -6

The 49ers fly three time zones east for this 10 AM body time kick on short rest following their MNF straight up home dog victory. They’ll be visiting the Pittsburgh Steeler team who has had 10 days of rest to prepare following their 28-21 week 1 loss at New England. Maybe we should call it the situational play of the year in the NFL. In any event, this is the basis for the blowouts you see each week in the NFL. On Monday, I authored an analysis on the Vikings/49ers game, which offered the advice that line moves of 6 points rarely work in the NFL. The line maker was steadfast in opening the 49ers at -3-. Including the hook, it was an unbelievable enticement for the betting public to jump on a Minnesota team who had finished strong last season, had RB Peterson returning, and had just finished the preseason at 4-1 SU ATS. The public took the bait all the way to game time, when the Vikings closed at -2-. Gone from the 49ers was long time HC Harbaugh replaced by new HC Tomsula, a guy who never had a head coaching job in the NFL in his life. Then there was the Aldon Smith fiasco, which surely ruined team unity. To top it off, the 49ers had the biggest player turnover in the NFL. Final score: San Francisco 20, Minnesota 3. It was every bit as bad as the final, as the Niners totally dominated the line of scrimmage, running the ball 39 times to 17 for a 230-71 yardage edge. That must surely have been a very satisfying win for the 49ers franchise. Now they must fly three time zones east on short rest to meet a well-rested and hungry Pittsburgh team who has had 10 days to stew over their opening day 28-21 loss at New England. Little was expected of the Steelers in their Thursday night opener at New England. The media made a point of telling everybody that Brady would be pumped after he was cleared of any wrong doing. In addition, the Steelers were fielding a defense that can kindly be referred to as rebuilding. And they were without longtime DC LeBeau. On the offensive side, starting center Pouncey was out till game 12, and RB Bell and WR Bryant were serving early season suspensions. The 28-21 final favoring New England was in no way representative of how the game was played. The Steelers outrushed the Patriots 134-80 (welcome back Deangelo Williams), and out passed the Patriots 330-281, negating 19 consecutive Brady completions. The Steelers actually could have won the game late. The above situational scenario is all you need to know in a game where all the intangible edges point the Steelers’ way. Like I said, this has the makings of an NFL CRUSHER.

Washington Redskins +3.5

The St Louis Rams travel east to visit the Washington Redskins in this 1 PM eastern kick. Few will be looking to back the Redskins, following their expected 17-10 home loss to Miami last week. Many will be on the St Louis bandwagon after they blew a double digit lead then roared back for a 34-31 OT victory vs the Seattle Seahawks team who had appeared in consecutive Super Bowls. The irony of this selection is that it was these very St Louis Rams who were our “LONE RANGER GAME OF THE WEEK” last week, just one of our many winners on a Sunday and Monday card that saw us go 13-2 ATS. A review of last week’s stats in the Seattle/St Louis game saw that the St Louis victory may have been a bit undeserved. Seattle ran the ball 32 times (an over 80% chance to beat the point spread), and had a 124-76 overland edge (a 75% chance to beat the point spread), combined with a +2 net TO margin, another near 80% chance to beat the point spread. It was a bit mystifying that the Seahawks failed to propel their fourth quarter momentum into an OT victory. Now, the Rams are thrust into the role of being a road favorite following a game 1 straight up home dog victory. It rarely happens, and hardly ever works to the benefit of the game 2 road chalk. Considering that St Louis has lost 9 consecutive road games following matchups with Seattle, there is little precedent for them to win today. Little was expected from Washington last week. The RG III scandal and ensuing concussions thrust QB Cousins into the starting role behind an iffy OL. This is the same Cousins who is just 2-8 SU as a starter in the NFL. When the Skins bolted to a 10-0 early lead, contrary players across the nation felt redemption. Though the Dolphins rallied for a 17-10 victory, it was undeserved considering the Skins’ dominance at the point of attack. The Skins ran 37 times to the Dolphins’ 18, a situation that covers 85% of the time, and 8 of 9 times opening week. The yardage edge was 161-74 overland, and 349-256 overall. In other words, these Redskins ain’t as bad as you think. Could be time for a turnaround from their 6-19 ATS recent run, but only you, me, and the LONE RANGER will be there. Just like we were last week with St Louis+ over Seattle.


Tampa Bay Buccaneers +10

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers visit the New Orleans Saints for this 1 PM eastern time kick on Sunday. This division rivalry was contested twice last year, with the Saints winning 37-31 on this field, then backing it up with a 23-20 win in the final game of the regular season at Tampa Bay. That makes two victories, but by a combined 9 points, less than today’s point spread. A savvy sports bettor from the New Orleans area offered a diatribe on why “New Orleans under 9“ was a solid wager for regular season victories. His argument was solid, citing both an offense and defense which are in decline. In short, the New Orleans’ slide from 12-6 SU in 2013 to 7-9 SU in 2014 may be more of a trend than a BUY sign for the Saints on a bounce back season. The week 1 31-19 loss at Arizona may certainly have been a harbinger of that prediction, for the Cardinals dominated the point of attack, outrushing the Saints 120-54, with New Orleans relying almost completely on their passing game. They ran it only 20 times (1 of 9 teams to run the ball 22 or less times in week 1), resulting in a 1-8 ATS record. Meanwhile, the 427 total yards the Saints allowed to the Cardinals certainly implies that last year’s declining defense may not have been fixed. This week, the world is looking for the bounce against what many consider to be a pathetic Tampa Bay team, and there is precedence for that thinking. The Saints are 25-13 ATS following a loss, they have won the last four in this series at this site by an average of 21 PPG, and after going 20-0 SU, 18-2 ATS on their strong home field, the Saints enter 2015 on an 0-5 SU ATS home slide. Time for the bounce…or is it? There is good reason why there are few Buc backers this week. Tampa Bay has lost 11 consecutive road games. Now, first round draft pick QB Winston is making his first road start. It certainly did not help that the first one was at home. In a pathetic offensive performance, Tampa Bay was outrushed 124-92 by last year’s 2-14 SU Titans. Winston threw two critical picks, and the offense gained just 273 total yards. All good reasons why this is a contrary side, and why we should all be on board with the Tampa Bay Bucs as the BIG DOG OF THE WEEK.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL Opening Line Report Week 2: Packers faves over Seahawks

Last January, the Packers let a 19-7 fourth-quarter lead evaporate, ultimately losing 28-22 in overtime but cashing as an 8.5-point road underdog to the Seahawks.

Highlighting the Week 2 schedule is a battle of NFC heavyweights on Sunday night, in a rematch of last year’s conference championship game. Two-time defending NFC champ Seattle travels to the currently unfrozen tundra to face a Green Bay team surely looking for some payback.

Last January, the Packers let a 19-7 fourth-quarter lead evaporate, ultimately losing 28-22 in overtime but cashing as an 8.5-point road underdog to the Seahawks. Seattle then went on to a heart-wrenching 28-24 Super Bowl loss as a 1-point pup to New England.

In their respective season openers, the Seahawks rallied with 18 fourth-quarter points to force overtime, but lost 34-31 at St. Louis as 3.5-point favorites, while the Packers bested host Chicago 31-23 as 6-point chalk.

John Lester, senior lines manager for Bookmaker.eu, tabbed Green Bay a 3.5-point fave over Seattle.

“This budding rivalry just keeps getting better,” Lester told Covers. “Seattle’s offensive line issues were apparent in Week 1, but Green Bay doesn’t quite have the firepower St. Louis does along the defensive line. Again, two teams that rate about the same, but we know Lambeau Field will be starving for a victory against this Seahawks squad.

Johnny Avello, executive director of race and sports for Wynn Las Vegas, set the Pack at -3.

“They also met to open the season last year, and Seattle won at home convincingly (36-16),” Lester said. “The Seahawks rarely lose at home, but the road hasn't been quite as friendly. Green Bay, Wisconsin, is about as strong a home field as you'll find in the NFL.”


Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles (-4/OTB)

Dallas could quickly learn what it lost by not re-signing running back DeMarco Murray, who will line up in Philadelphia’s backfield in an NFC East clash.

Some books have this game at Philadelphia -4, with news that Dallas WR Dez Bryant is out 4-6 weeks with a broken foot, while most places have this game off the board as of Monday morning. Books estimate his value between one and 1.5 points to the Cowboys' pointspreads.

The Cowboys opened their season by piling up a boatload of yards (436) and a boatload of costly turnovers (three), but somehow rallied in the final minute to upend the New York Giants 27-26. The Boys failed to cash, going off as a 7-point chalk.

The Eagles, meanwhile, still haven’t kicked off their season, playing in a Monday night game at Atlanta.

Avello expected to set the number around 2.5 – before news of Bryant’s injury got out.

“It's only Week 2 and things may change, but these two appear to be the ones that will be competing for the division crown,” Avello said. “Home-field advantage hasn't meant much the last two years in this rivalry, as each team has lost at home and won on the road.”

Lester was figuring on a field-goal pointspread, but spoke too soon when it came to Bryant’s broken foot.

“If there are no major injuries in either teams’ Week 1 games, we will look to make Philadelphia around 3-point chalk,” Lester said before the conclusion of Sunday night’s game. “It’s a case of two of the most public teams we have, and they look pretty even on paper, so we’ll account for the Eagles’ home-field edge. We’ll have to set the total extremely high to attract under bettors.”


New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills (+1.5)

The defending Super Bowl champion Pats come in with extra rest after dispatching the Pittsburgh Steelers 28-21, though they failed to cash as 7.5-point closing chalk in the Thursday night season opener. Tom Brady, who a week earlier had his four-game suspension rescinded, lit up the Pittsburgh defense, completing 25 of 32 passes for 288 yards and four touchdowns – three to tight end Rob Gronkowski.

Buffalo, in its first game under new coach Rex Ryan, was surprisingly dominant in a 27-14 victory over Indianapolis as a 1-point home underdog. The Bills led 24-0 midway through the third quarter and didn’t let the Colts score until the final minute of that quarter.

“Another semi-rivalry that’s been dominated by the favorite, but one where the books can be tossed out,” Lester said. “Of course, the Bills will be a trendy pick this season, as we took a ton of action on them in Week 1. And of course, they delivered. The Rex Ryan hype machine is well-oiled, so again, I expect the squares to be on the Pats and the sharps to be on the home dog. We’ve already adjusted down to +1.”

Said Avello, “The Bills and Rex Ryan got the start they were looking for and now can prove they are contenders for at least the AFC East. They've only beat the Pats a couple of times over the past 10 years, but they should be well prepared for this one.”